实物期权在自然资源投资中的应用

文章对有关自然资源投资中应用实物期权的文献进行了回顾,探讨了资源商品价格、储量估价、勘探阶段的信息投资期权、开发阶段的PSS模型、生产阶段的Smith 和 McCardle模型,并指出资源商品的价格过程、储量价值与资源商品价格的关系、生产项目的价值函数、基于实物期权的投资业绩计量、投资项目的权利义务框架及投资项目有关义务的建模等问题是未来研究的重点.     

实物期权理论在投资决策中的应用

本文着重从实物期权理论在投资决策领域的适用性以及投资决策中NPV评估方法的局限性两方面,阐述了实物期权投资理论在投资决策中的必要性,并且依据定价模型,计算分析评价在投资环境发生变化后项目的真实价值,说明实物期权价值实施的可行性.     

实物期权及其在风险投资中的应用

文章介绍了实物期权理论的基本概念,论述了实物期权在风险投资中的应用.通过借鉴金融期权的定价方法,得出实物期权的定价公式,并以分段投资期权为例证明实物期权确实能给风险投资家带来某些创见,最后对实物期权的适用性进行了一般评述.     

浅析实物期权定价模型

常见的实物期权定价策略将项目中包含的实物期权演化为简单金融期权,然后使用金融价值评估工具,例如布莱克-斯科尔斯（Black—Scholes）模型来进行定价。实物期权理论虽然来源于金融期权,但其投资特征不同于金融期权,这些区别导致实物期权定价比金融期权定价更加复杂。本文通过对B-S模型在实物期权估值中的应用的分析,最后得出结论,将金融期权定价模型简单应用于实物期权定价往往是无效的。文章最后提出建议,实物期权理论与DCF分析类似,其目的在于通过提供“评分”的量化技巧来帮助决策过程,实物期权在某个时间点上的价值只能提供决策参考,而不能用来代替最终的商业判断。     

基于实物期权法的风险投资项目估价方法——一个文献综述

文章理清了实物期权及其在风险投资项目估价中应用的发展脉络,并提出了实物期权在风险投资项目估价应用中需要发展的地方。实物期权在风险投资项目估价中应用的发展,主要以标准的Black&Sc-holes期权定价模型为基础,结合风险投资的特点,从期权的期限、标的资产价值的分布假设、利率、执行价格、波动率等方面对标准的Black&Scholes期权定价模型进行修正。     

实物期权在投资决策分析中的应用

文章分析了传统的项目投资决策方法存在的问题,主张将实物期权分析方法用于项目投资决策,介绍了实物期权的基本思想、概念、类型及适用条件,着重分析了实物期权在投资决策分析中一般性分析方法及其步骤,以期通过实物期权的方法来提高投资决策的科学化。     

对我国在采矿权评估中引用模糊实物期权法的探讨

在采矿权评估过程中,传统的净现值法和实物期权法存在一定缺陷,特别是管理者很难对预期现金流估计一个准确的值,而模糊理论和实物期权理论相结合的模糊实物期权定价模型克服了这个缺陷,能更加实际地反映其采矿权价值。本文首先简要介绍了采矿权评估中的贴现现金流法和实物期权法,针对其不足,提出了模糊实物期权法,并分析其理论基础,最后通过一个简单的案例介绍了模糊实物期权法在矿业权评估中的应用。     

实物期权在人力资本价值计量中的应用

由于人们对人力资本的理解看法不一,以及人力资本价值未来收益的不确定性,使得准确计量人力资本价值成为一个难点。实物期权是一种新的价值计量工具,对于处理未来收益的不确定性有着独特的优点,因此用实物期权的方法能更准确的计量人力资本的价值。     

实物期权及其在风险投资中的应用

文章介绍了实物期权理论的基本概念，论述了实物期权在风险投资中的应用。通过借鉴金融期权的定价方法，得出实物期权的定价公式，并以分段投资期权为例证明实物期权确实能给风险投资家带来某些创见，最后对实物期权的适用性进行了一般评述。     

实物期权方法应用于风险投资项目评价的可行性研究

利用实物期权理论可以对不确定性条件下的各种选择权进行定量分析,从而提供一个有用的投资决策框架。文章详细论述了实物期权在风险投资中的应用,并以延迟投资期权为例证明实物期权确实能给风险投资家带来某些创见,最后对实物期权的适用性进行了一定评述。     

The Economic Impact of the Lack of Transparency in Financial Reporting

Off-balance-sheet amounts are in the trillions of dollars, not including all transactions with off-balance-sheet implications. Financial managers and consultants intentionally structure transactions that are abusive of off-balance sheet accounting rules, which leads to a lack of transparency in financial reporting. This paper explores several ways in which companies manipulate off-balance sheet transactions to satisfy personal and business objectives as well as the impact of such manipulations. It is time for regulatory bodies to close the loopholes, eliminate overly rules-based standards, clearly state the economic objective of each standard, and require firms to disclose the economic motivations for the accounting practices they adopt.      

Balance sheet expansion and economic growth in China: Crowd in or crowd out?

Balance sheet expansion is crucial to understand the historic path, current slowdown and future trend of economic growth in China. As the financial system transforms national savings into investment, balance sheet expands simultaneously. According to changing impacts of balance sheet expansion on real economy, economic growth in China from 1998 to 2016 can be divided into the crowd-in stage and the crowd-out stage. In the first stage (1998–2007), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy in, raised TFP dramatically and accelerated economic growth. In the second stage (2008–2016), balance sheet expansion crowded China's real economy out, with stagnant TFP and decelerated economic growth. Balance sheet expansion has slowed down since 2014, but it continues to exert crowding out effects on China's real economy. We argue that balance sheet expansion is crucial for China's future economic growth. In the long term, structural reforms, especially reforms in the financial system, could increase growth potential significantly. In the short term, financial system reforms should focus on generating sufficient cash flows to boost aggregate demand.     

Balance sheet effects and the country risk premium: An empirical investigation

Based on recent theories emphasizing financial imperfections, this paper is an empirical investigation of the link between a country's risk premium and the balance sheet effect of a devaluation. In a panel of emerging economies, balance sheet effects, due to increased external debt service after an unexpected real depreciation, significantly raise the risk premium. This result is robust to various checks and appears driven by those countries with the largest financial imperfections. Also, particularly large real depreciations turn out to be disproportionately important, meaning that balance sheet effects may be strongest at times of economic crisis. JEL no. F34, F41     

金融加速器理论与伯南克的金融危机应对之策

金融危机席卷全球导致真实经济下滑,为应对危机美联储实施＂量化宽松＂货币政策。本文借伯南克对20世纪30年代美国大萧条研究提出的金融加速器理论分析了大萧条影响范围、程度以及持续时间长的原因和内在机制,进而分析量化宽松政策的原因及其影响。     

中小企业融资与中小银行发展——由中国现实问题引发的理论与实证分析

长久以来困扰我国经济发展的一个突出问题是中小企业融资难、融资贵.本文首先梳理了中小企业融资的理论基础,即基于"软信息"的关系型贷款.在理论分析之后,我们继之以中小企业贷款实证分析的综述,将理论与实证进行了交叉印证.接下来,我们使用中国商业银行资产负债表微观数据,分析了中国中小银行服务中小企业的成功与不足之处.研究发现众...     

让实体经济和虚拟经济的耦合协调度最优

自借贷资本从商业资本和产业资本分离之日起,虚拟经济就已产生,并随着经济的发展规模逐步扩大。虚拟经济与实体经济发展平衡时,彼此促进增长;当两者发展程度不协调时,就会出现泡沫经济。在新一轮经济形势下,如何让两者的耦合协调度最优?文中对虚拟经济增殖过程进行了一定程度的揭示,并为使两者耦合协调度最优提出一点建议。     

Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: a VAR analysis for the euro area

This paper analyses an otherwise standard macro-financial VAR model for the euro area that includes - apart from conventional measures of output, inflation and monetary policy - a composite indicator of systemic financial stress, namely the CISS index, and total assets of the ECB balance sheet capturing the stance of unconventional monetary policy. I find that the CISS contributes significantly to the dynamics of the macroeconomy and exerts a strong influence on monetary policy when looking at both policy rates and the ECB balance sheet. The significance of the CISS appears robust to the inclusion of a broad set of real and financial control variables. Based on tests of direct versus indirect (Granger-)causality patterns proposed in Hsiao (1982), I also find that unlike unconventional policy as measured by ECB balance sheet growth, the policy rate does not seem to react directly to variations in financial stress but rather indirectly through the impact of financial stress on macroeconomic conditions. These different patterns of reaction are broadly consistent with the ECB’s “separation principle”. The estimated effects of the ECB’s standard and non-standard policy measures on inflation and economic growth are moderate, although an easier stance in both policy tools helps calm down financial stress.     

基于碳税性能的实物期权模型分析

本文首先综述国内外关于碳税及碳关税定义、性质特征及作用功能等方面的研究文献,回顾有关实物期权理论在税收筹划中的理论研究,对碳税及国际碳关税设计中蕴含的实物期权思想及其存在的条件因素进行了分析,并运用实物期权理论描述了结构期权、程序期权的作用过程,构建了碳税及碳关税设计方案转换中存在的转换实物期权模型。最后,针对复杂多变的政治因素和自然环境,提出了碳税及碳关税设计筹划的合理建议。本文主要的创新点在于首次把实物期权模型引入到碳税及碳关税设计中。     

我国中小企业转型升级背景下融资租赁发展探讨

文章认为,融资租赁是联结金融与实体经济最为紧密的融资手段,基于中小企业而言,融资租赁具有缓解融资双方信息不对称、降低融资门槛和成本、缓解财务负担等优势,是中小企业转型升级的有效融资选择。文章针对目前我国融资租赁行业存在的法律法规不健全、多头监管、政策扶持力度不够、中小企业对融资租赁认知度不高等问题,需要政府、中小企业以及租赁公司三方共同努力,采取相应措施,积极促进我国中小企业融资租赁的健康发展。     

Real financial market exchange rate volatility and portfolio flows

This paper studies the relationship between real financial market exchange rate volatility and US cross-border equity flows. We found strong evidence that causality goes from real financial market exchange rate volatility to equity flows. According to our results, real financial market exchange rate volatility negatively influences purchases of foreign equity. This finding is in line with the portfolio optimization theory. The impact of real financial market exchange rate volatility on sales of foreign equity is also negative. This result can be explained by the theory of behavioral finance which states that investors are reluctant to realize losses of their portfolios. This is why investors decrease sales of assets when riskiness of the assets increases. The impact of real financial market exchange rate on net purchases of foreign equity is positive. It follows from these results that sales of foreign equity decrease more strongly than purchases of foreign equity when riskiness of foreign assets increases.