全球化背景下的新兴市场投资

在过去20年里,新兴市场从规模小且流动性差的封闭股票市场发展成为超过全球平均收益水平的投资场所,在全球投资组合中的份额逐渐增加,已成为多元化投资组合中的基本组成部分。受市场容量和供给限制等不利因素的影响,目前新兴市场的发展势头有所减速,但它仍然是一个为投资者提供多元化和长期超额收益的重要市场。     

海外投资探要

全球经济重伤未愈,中国对外投资能力却在成倍增长。据统计,仅2010年1-8月,对外直接投资金额就已超过500亿美元,调查显示,中国已经超过德国和法国,成为第二大“对外投资最有潜力的国家”。     

中国企业海外投资困局求解

近年来，中国企业大量的海外购并，引起了世界上很多企业和政府的关注。中国企业在国外，也遇到了很多的投资壁垒。这些投资壁垒，有些是针对所有国家的，并不是只针对中国的。但是，有一些问题是只针对中国的，比如说出于战略的考虑，在能源、资源、高科技产业，给中国的企业设置更高的门槛。但是，另外某些方面也是中国企业自身的问题所导致的。     

新兴市场选股方法和思路

二十年来,我国证券市场快速发展,上市公司从几家发展到2000多家,证券市场的快速发展为我国国民经济的发展和经济体制的改革筹集了大量资金,它极大地改变了人们的投资理念,从投机逐步转变为投资,从短期投资逐步转变为长期投资。相当多的稳健的投资者对基金情有独钟,大量投资于各种基金。在我国的证券市场中,机构与散户的博弈,机构与机构的博弈,展现得淋漓尽致。投资者对证券投资风险和收益的认识已经较为深刻。为了让处于相对弱势群体的大部分中小投资者减少亏损、甚至严重亏损的现状,笔者通过股票投资的理论研究和实践,提出了新兴市场三阶梯选股方法和思路,供投资大师们斧正,也为广大中小投资者提供一种选股的方法。     

海外投资“内省”

最近中石油频频出手海外并购,引发各方激烈反响. 从2005年中海油收购优尼科公司受阻,到2009年中国铝业投资力拓失败,中国企业在"走出去"的过程中屡次受到重挫.虽然中国在欠发达地区已经有很多成功投资的先例,但这两次针对发达国家资产收购的失败,还是让当事公司和中国人都充满挫败感.     

新兴市场流动资金涨潮

哪些发达国家中的企业最容易适应新兴市场？毕马威国际在3月份发布的一项名为“新兴市场国际并购跟踪研究”的报告给出了答案：美国和英国。这项研究追踪的是已完成的、并购方从被购方处获取10％以上权益的交易。该研究表明，在新兴和高增长市场公司的跨国并购活动中，美国和英国的公司完成了最多的交易，同时在被并购的对象中，美国和英国的公司也占了最多的数量。     

2020年新兴市场展望

“新兴市场”这个概念最早在1981年被创造出,它关系到十个国家。当时这些国家的人均GDP还不到3000美元,但是现在韩国人均GDP已达到1.4万美元。人们认知是,倘若是只投资这十个新兴市场国家当中的一个,这样太过于风险,所以,就需要投资十个新兴市场国家,从而分散风险。之前,新兴市场投资具有不确定性,但正是其不确定性才助其飞速发展。     

普华永道专家指点企业海外投资

在普华永道中国北京办公室,《国际融资》记者独家采访了普华永道中国新近在爱尔兰设立的海外投资部的主管合伙人安德鲁.奥卡拉汉（Andrew O＇Callaghan）先生,安德鲁·奥卡拉汉就全球并购趋势、中国企业在国际并购中应该注意的问题及对策,以及爱尔兰得天独厚的投资政策、     

新兴市场资本流动趋势及分析

随着全球经济复苏迹象日益明显,美国量化宽松货币政策渐趋尾声,国际资本市场出现波动,危机后表现相对良好的新兴市场普遍面临资本大量外流的挑战。在此背景下,分析研究新兴市场资本流动的近况、未来趋势及主要影响因素,有助于中国应对未来风险,加快与世界经济的融合。一、全球新兴市场资本流动现状2008年全球金融危机后,受发达经     

朝鲜:未来境外投资的新兴市场

<正> 每天下午四点,在辽宁省丹东市中朝友谊大桥的中国一侧,挂有朝鲜牌照的货车排起了长长的队伍准备过江,车上载满了中国的货物。 每天早上和下午,中朝大桥放行,双方的货物和人员双向交流。     

新兴市场私募投资发展趋势

我们是专注于新兴市场私募投资的全球行业协会,是独立的非盈利性组织,在全球的会员超过了300家,包括基金经理、行业顾问及机构投资者,这些会员在全球100多个国家都有业务,管理资产超过了一万亿美元,这是非常令人震惊的数字,我们为所有会员提供数据等方面服务,通过向会员提供这些服务,帮助他们获得更好的信息,并且提供相经验分享和法律指引.这是我们的核心业务.那么,新兴市场私募投资的趋势如何?中国的市场趋势又如何?我想从国际投资人的角度来做一些解读.     

The practice of investment valuation in emerging markets: Evidence from Argentina

This paper discusses the challenges of applying traditional valuation techniques to emerging markets, and reports on how CFOs, financial advisors and private equity funds meet those challenges in Argentina, a major Latin American emerging economy. On many fronts, our findings show that there is substantial alignment with U.S. valuation practices. We find that: (a) discounted cashflow techniques like NPV, IRR and payback are very popular among corporations and financial advisors; (b) the CAPM is the most popular asset pricing model, yet it is frequently modified to account for country-specific risk; (c) capital budgeting analyses are performed in U.S. dollars by non-dollar companies; (d) financial advisors tend to apply U.S. betas to the emerging market, yet they rarely adjust betas for cross-border asymmetries; and (e) corporations tend to disregard the effects of small size and illiquidity. We provide tentative explanations for our findings.     

Multi-agent investment in incomplete markets

The problem of the expected utility maximization in incomplete markets for a single agent is well understood in a fairly general setting. This paper studies the problem for the multi-agent case. For this case a cooperative investment game is posed as follows: firstly collect all agents capital together at the initial time, then invest the total capital in a trading strategy, and finally divide the terminal wealth of the trading strategy and each of them gets a part. We give a characterization of Pareto optimal cooperative strategies and a characterization of situations where cooperation strictly Pareto dominates non cooperation, and prove that the core of the cooperative investment game is non-empty under mild conditions using Scarf theorem.Received: August 2003, Mathematics Subject Classification (1991): 91B28, 91A12, 60H30JEL Classification: G11, C71This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant 10201031. It is a pleasure for the author to express his sincere thanks to an anonymous referee for valuable suggestions.     

Liquidity of emerging markets

Emerging markets are characterized by volatile, but substantial returns that can easily exceed 75% per annum. Balancing these lofty returns are liquidity costs that, using the bid–ask spread as a basis, range from 1% for the Taiwanese market to over 47% for the Russian market. However, the paucity of bid–ask spread information across countries and time requires the use of liquidity estimates in emerging markets even though little is known about the efficacy of these estimates in measuring bid–ask spread costs. Using firm-level quoted bid–ask spreads as a basis, I find that price-based liquidity measures of Lesmond et al. [Review of Financial Studies 12 (1999) 1113] and Roll [Journal of Finance 39 (1984) 1127] perform better at representing cross-country liquidity effects than do volume based liquidity measures. Within-country liquidity is best measured with the liquidity estimates of either Lesmond, Ogden, and Trzcinka or, to a lesser extent, Amihud (2002). Examining the impact of legal origin and political institutions on liquidity levels shows that countries with weak political and legal institutions have significantly higher liquidity costs than do countries with strong political and legal systems, even to the exclusion of legal origin or insider trading enforcement. Higher incremental political risk is associated with a 10 basis point increase in transaction costs, using the Lesmond, Ogden, and Trzcinka estimate, or a 1.9% increase in price impact costs, using the Amihud estimate.     

2014年7月境外人民币离岸市场综述

2014年7月,境外人民币市场总体保持平稳发展势头。主要运行特点包括：境外人民币资金池略有收缩;Hibor人民币隔夜拆借利率继续上涨,境内外利差持续出现倒挂;境外人民币债券发行量较高峰期有所回落;香港美元兑人民币可交割即期汇价持续走低,境内外美元兑人民币远期汇价震荡下行,境内与香港可交割人民币远期汇价差异略有下降;香港交易所人民币期货交投活跃度上升,CME人民币期货日均交易额下降。     

Unconventional monetary policy in emerging markets

Channels of monetary transmission likely to work in an emerging market (EM) are presented. The Indian accommodative policy cycle, and the papers in this special issue, is used to analyse unconventional aspects of EM monetary policy. It is argued that conditions used to justify unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies routinely hold in EMs.     

Predicting corporate governance in emerging markets

This paper investigates what predicts corporate governance in emerging markets. Specifically, we examine what predicts governance changes and the level of governance itself. To conduct this study, we utilize a unique dataset from AllianceBernstein that consists of monthly firm-level corporate governance ratings for 24 emerging market countries for almost seven years. Since the AllianceBernstein ratings are time-series data, they allow us to determine the direction of change in a firm’s corporate governance, and the timing of these changes. Using these data, we find two main results. First, as firms grow they are more likely to improve their governance. Second, the level of political risk where the firm resides is negatively and significantly related to the level of firm governance but positively and significantly related to changes in firm governance. Hence, firm governance is better in countries with lower political risk but firms are more likely to improve their governance in countries with higher political risk.     

2014年5月境外人民币离岸市场综述

2014年5月,境外人民币市场保持发展势头,主要特点是：境外人民币资金池继续扩大;Hibor人民币隔夜拆息趋升,境内外利差有所缩减;境外人民币债券发行433．24亿元,较上月大幅增加;香港美元兑人民币可交割即期汇价持续震荡,境内外美元兑人民币远期汇价均明显上行,境内与香港可交割人民币远期汇价差异略有上升;香港交易所人民币期货交投活跃度持平,CME人民币期货日均交易额有所回落。