基于税收与经济增长二者关系的理论分析

税收收入是我国财政收入的主要来源,也是经济运行状况的综合反映.经济决定税收,税收反作用于经济.税收收入与经济增长的协调发展对政府职能的顺利履行起着至关重要的作用,只有正确认识税收与经济增长的理论关系,才能深入分析和挖掘税收与经济不能同步增长的根源,进而为促进二者的协调发展提出理论支撑和政策建议.     

税收增长与经济增长关系的实证分析——以上海市为例

运用回归分析方法对税收增长与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:税收增长处于合理增长范围;税收增长与经济增长关系基本协调;税收收入增长的强劲势头保持一段时期是没有问题的;税收收入必将进入与GDP增速协调发展的轨道。     

我国税收超常增长引发税改新思路

自1994年税收制度改革以来,我国税收收入持续快速增长,且出现了连续多年超GDP增长的态势.本文从我国现行税制体系中存在重复征税这一角度出发,分析了近年来我国税收收入超常增长的原因,并提出了我国现阶段应实行有增有减、结构调整的税收政策.     

近年来我国的税收增长问题分析

经济决定税收,税收反作用于经济.1994年税制改革以来,我国的税收收入保持了较快的增长势头,税收收入的增长率一直高于GDP的增长率.本文从影响税收收入的主要因素入手来分析导致税收收入高速增长的原因.     

中国税收持续高速增长之谜

延续12年之久的中国税收收入持续高速增长,在步入“十一五”以后表现出更加强劲的态势,从而在宏观经济运行以及整个经济社会发展进程中激起了更大的波澜。本文由税收收入同现行税制的关联分析入手,在税收收入增长轨迹同现行税制变动轨迹的联系中,试图捕捉支撑税收收入持续高速增长的“特殊”因素。以此为基础,采用特殊视角,逐一聚焦由税收收入持续高速增长所引致的若干重大问题,给出种种政策判断,提出相关政策建议。     

我国税收收入的多因素分析

税收是国家取得财政收入的一种重要工具，也是影响我国经济发展的一个很重要的因素。所以，可以通过对影响税收增长的主要因素进行分析，解释这些因素和税收收入之间存在的关系，以及其对税收收入的影响程度的大小；在此基础上，提出相应的发展对策，以促进我国税收收入的增长以及我国经济的全面发展。本文主要通过对影响我国税收收入的变量进行多因素分析，利用SPSS建立以税收收入为因变量Y，以其它可量化影响因素——国民收入X1、财政支出X2、商品零售价格指数X3，为自变量的多元线性回归模型，对影响我国税收收入的多种因素进行数量化分析。     

影响中国税收收入因素的计量分析

改革开放以来,我国经济突飞猛进,随着经济体制改革、供给侧结构性改革、“一带一路”建设等重大国家战略的深入和推展,中国的财政收支发生很大变化,全国财政收入从1978年的1132.26亿元,到2015年的152269.23亿元,37年间增长了135倍,平均每年增长了3.6倍.为了研究影响中国税收收入增长的主要原因,分析中央和地方税收收入的增长规律,预测中国税收未来的增长趋势,需要建立计量经济模型.影响中国税收收入增长的因素很多,但据分析最主要的因素主要有:(1)经济整体增长.(2)公共财政的需求(3)物价水平(4)税收政策因素.运用Eviews统计软件的逐步回归对数据进行线性拟合,经过各种参数检验以及模型筛选,得到最后符合要求的模型,本论文给出了实证分析的结论并且提出了相应的政策建议.     

对中国税收收入增长的理性认识

近年来中国税收收入的快速增长引起了学术界的广泛关注，但对其给予全面否定也是值得商榷的。通过历史地分析中国税收收入增长中的合理性，有利于加深对税收增长的理性认识，把握今后税收增长的正确方向。     

税收努力、征税机构与税收增长之谜

本文运用省级面板数据研究了中国税收收入高速增长的影响因素,主要考察了经济基本面和征税努力水平对于税收收入的影响。我们利用成对样本(paired sampling)的数据结构,使用工具变量处理了税收努力度量误差带来的内生性问题,估计了国税和地税机构的征税努力对于税收增长的不同影响。这种模型设定的好处是既考虑到一个地区的国税和地税面对着同样的经济基本面,同时又可以识别两个机构征税努力的增收效应所存在的差异。我们发现,GDP增长对于税收的增长有接近45%的解释力,征管努力对税收收入也有重要的贡献,地税局税收努力水平的边际效应要高于国税局的边际效应。     

税收经济增长弹性分析

本文从税收与经济的弹性关系入手,以1979～2009年我国GDP与税收增长情况为例,分析了税收经济增长弹性,提出了促进税收收入与经济增长的一些建议.     

Demographic change and income tax revenues – results from a large microsimulation model for Germany

Similarly to many other European countries, Germany has experienced a considerable demographic shift since the 1970s: higher life expectancy and diminishing birth rates, only partly balanced by immigration, have led to an altered population structure with an increasing share of elderly people. In the next decades, population aging in Germany will accelerate and also induce a decline of the total population. These demographic changes can be expected to have a profound impact on the governmental budget. While shifts in public expenditures have been forecasted regularly since 2005, the revenue side has received less attention to date. We study the long-term (2015–2060) shifts in income tax revenues induced by demographic change. Our aim is to quantify possible fiscal effects of demographic change using microsimulation and to identify elements of the income tax code particularly affected. We find the expected demographic changes to have a clear negative impact on income tax revenues. Population aging increases the impact of various deductibility rules on total income tax revenues, in particular the impact of the deductibility of old-age and health insurance provisions. The impact of the deductibility of exceptional expenses such as expenses for caregiving also increases, but remains small overall. Due to expected increases in real incomes, however, demographic change does not imply an absolute drop in income tax revenues in the next decades.     

欧债危机后发达国家税制改革趋势及对中国的启示

欧债危机后,发达国家依靠紧缩的财政政策来弥补巨大的财政赤字和政府债务,各国也进入到了增税周期。发达国家通过强化税制公平、开征银行税、为中小企业和创新企业减税和加强征管的方法来增加税收收入。经济全球化下中国应顺应世界税制改革的趋势,借鉴成功经验完善中国的税收制度。同时一国的宏观经济形势是税制改革的基础,任何税制改革都不应脱离本国的实际情况。     

Sovereign rents and quality of tax policy and administration

Windfall revenues from foreign aid or natural resource exports can weaken governments’ incentives to design or maintain efficient tax systems. Cross-country data for developing countries provide evidence for this hypothesis, using a World Bank indicator on “efficiency of revenue mobilization.” Aid’s negative effects on quality of tax systems are robust to correcting for potential reverse causality, to changes in the sample, and to alternative estimation methods. Revenues from natural resources are also associated with lower-quality tax systems, but results are somewhat sensitive to the choice of resource dependence indicators, and to a few extreme values in the data. Disaggregating by resource type, revenues from fuel exports are found to be more strongly associated than revenues from metals and ores exports with inefficient tax systems.     

Public debt dynamics with tax revenue constraints

We develop a dynamic model of public debt under the assumption that it is problematic for governments to implement fast increases of tax revenues, as new taxes require costly infrastructure and expertise that can be built only over time. In this environment, the standard condition requiring economic growth greater than interest costs is not sufficient to guarantee financial stability. Debt might become unstable if the gap between these two indicators falls below a given threshold. Our empirical analysis based on historical public finance data for the US provides strong support for the model. This study conveys a cautionary warning, because the debt of relatively safe borrowers may suddenly become unstable for instance because of a substantial deceleration in the growth of nominal income. These issues can be particularly relevant for those countries that do not have a modern and efficient tax collection system.     

不动产税应成为我国市级财政的主体税种——以成都市为例

不完善的分税制财政体制经过十多年的运行,其负面影响日渐突出,已经影响到经济发展和社会稳定.本文根据我国地方财政运行的现状,结合房地产税的理论分析,提出房地产税改革的主要目标应定位为地方政府提供稳定可持续的收入来源,并以成都市为案例来说明改革后的不动产税是否能够成为市级财政的主体税种.     

A choice experiment on fuel taxation and earmarking in Norway

Pigouvian taxes are efficient — but unpopular among voters — and hence often politically infeasible. Earmarking of revenues has been widely reported to increase public support for taxes, but earmarking is generally not the most efficient use of the revenues. This trade-off between efficiency and political feasibility is the motivation for our primary research objective: to quantify the effect of earmarking on support for fuel tax rises. Our secondary research objective is to investigate why earmarking increases support. Using data from a representative sample of the Norwegian voter population (N = 1147), we estimate models of voter preferences for fuel taxes using logistic regression models. Our results show that, in the absence of earmarking, the majority of voters would like to reduce fuel taxes, but earmarking the revenues for environmental measures has a substantial effect on voter support for fuel tax increases, garnering a majority for increases of up to 15% above present levels. Further analysis indicates that a prime reason why earmarking for environmental measures is popular is that it increases the perceived environmental effectiveness of the tax, and hence its legitimacy as an environmental rather than a fiscal policy instrument.     

中国省级税制结构变动的主导动因——基于面板门限模型的检验

国际经济一体化和国内政策调整主导了税制结构变化.政策制定者若顺应税制结构一般演变规律相应进行调整将会实现社会和谐发展,调整应同时兼顾国际化带来的冲击.从长期来看,经济发展对税制结构的作用程度减弱.若不存在冲击波动,税制结构将趋于稳定;税收来源的多元化和税收收入的指数化有利于降低税制结构波动程度.因此,开征财产税,实现社会保障的费改税,建构多元化且指数化的税收收入体系是我国中长期税制改革的方向.     

Tax Ratios in Macroeconomics: Do Taxes Really Matter?

In various empirical studies so-called tax ratios (tax revenues expressed as a ratio of some aggregate tax base) are employed as approximations for tax burdens. The most difficult problem in calculating tax ratios is the way in which personal income tax revenues are attributed to labour and capital. We argue that the methodology of Mendoza et al. (1994) is seriously flawed in this respect. Using information from national sources, we calculate more accurate tax ratios for eight OECD countries that differ substantially from those of Mendoza et al. (1997). Still, the results of the empirical analysis of Mendoza et al. (1997) do not change significantly if we use our tax ratios instead of those of Mendoza et al.. However, the results change once country specific effects are taken up in the model. Capital taxes are, e.g., shown to reduce economic growth. We find that the results of Daveri and Tabellini (2000) are neither sensitive to the use of the tax ratios nor to the specification of the model: high labour taxes have increased unemployment in Europe.     

Non-discriminatory donation relief and strategic commitment under political competition

Tax relief for private donations towards the provision of collective goods can protect minorities from majority-driven outcomes in which tax revenues are exclusively used to finance the provision of public goods that are only valued by the majority. In this paper we show that non-discriminatory tax relief for private donations can arise in political equilibrium as a strategic commitment device aimed at creating and supporting political alliances that would not otherwise be able to coalesce.     

公共服务满意度、税制公平与纳税遵从——来自中国的证据

公共服务与税收公平是影响纳税遵从的重要因素。基于中国背景,将公共服务满意度、税制公平与纳税遵从纳入公平理论框架分析三者之间的作用机制后发现:公共服务满意度影响纳税人对税制公平的评价,无论是对政府部门的日常行政服务还是其他公共部门的基础公共服务而言,公共服务满意度越高,纳税人对税制公平的评价就越高;同时,税制公平对纳税遵从有正向影响,纳税人对税制公平的评价越高,其纳税遵从度就越高;税制公平评价在公共服务满意度与纳税遵从之间发挥着中介的作用。因此,现阶段提高我国公众纳税遵从度可以从改善公共服务和强化税制公平两个角度入手。