The equilibrium manifold keeps the memory of individual demand functions

Summary. It is shown that the property that the equilibrium manifold keeps the memory of the individual demand functions holds true if every individual demand function satisfies the following three properties: 1) It is a function of commodity prices and of consumers income; 2) Consumption belongs to the nonnegative orthant of the commodity space; 3) Walras law. Neither differentiability nor continuity are necessary. In addition, the demand functions do not have to be utility maximizing subject to budget constraints.Received: 2 September 2003, Revised: 26 January 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D50, D51.A preliminary version of this paper was released in October 1999 under the title Deriving individual demand functions from the equilibrium manifold. I wish to thank an anonymous referee for thoughtful comments.     

A technology replacement model with variable market potential — An empirical study of CRT and LCD TV

The rapidly changing economic environment and increasingly fierce competition indicate that companies must innovate in both their products and marketing strategies if they are to continue to flourish. Specifically, the ability to accurately predict the demand for products is crucial when firms decide to allocate their resources, especially in the fast moving high technology industries, where there is very high investment in R&D and production facilities. This study establishes a forecast model for technology replacement based on the diffusion model with population growth used for the variable market potential. The proposed model is then applied to investigate the CRT and LCD TV market.The results suggest that the new model is more accurate than the constant market potential model in fitting and forecasting performance. Consumers who purchase a TV for the first time are likely more attracted to LCD TV rather than CRT TV. As for those individuals who already own a CRT TV, the attraction is not strong enough to encourage them to replace their current CRT TV with a new LCD TV. Moreover, it is noted that the falling price of LCD TV is an essential factor in encouraging purchases.     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

The diffusion process,competitive relationship,and equilibrium analysis of smartphone operating systems

This study started from the perspective of predicting science and technology competition, building on this to discuss the dynamic competition between Android and iOS by sales volume in each quarter. The Lotka–Volterra system of equations, one well-known competitive diffusion models, has been adopted to represent the competitive situations of the smartphone operating system market, with the Lyapunov function used to carry out equilibrium and stability analysis. The results showed that Android and iOS have a predator–prey relationship, in which iOS serves as the predator, and Android as a prey. The equilibrium and stability analysis show that both products are able to coexist in the market, and thus, each system has its own stable sales volume.     

The indeterminacy of equilibrium city formation under monopolistic competition and increasing returns

We study the indeterminacy of equilibrium in the Fujita–Krugman [When is the economy monocentric?: von Thünen and Chamberlin unified, Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. 25 (1995) 505–528] model of city formation under monopolistic competition and increasing returns. Both the number and the locations of cities are endogenously determined. Assuming smooth transportation costs, we examine equilibria in city-economies where a finite number of cities form endogenously. For any positive integer K, the set of equilibria with K distinct cities has a smooth manifold of dimension K-1 as its interior for almost all parameter values in a regular parameterization. The disjoint union of these sets over all positive integers K constitutes the entire equilibrium set.     

公平、和谐、秩序与协调——自然法则中的整体性均衡思想及其启示

越是古老的思想越是简约而深奥,借助自然法则表现出来的"公平"、"和谐"、"秩序"、"协调"等早期社会思想都带有"整体性"特征.它不仅培育了古典经济学,从中还可以梳理均衡思想的演进历程,为静态均衡思想提供了反思的依据.社会经济中存在着多种均衡机制,它们之间的相互联系与作用构威"整体性";"冲突一依存一秩序",以及各种均衡之间的相互摩擦与适应正是整体性均衡的实现机制.这启示我们在各种社会矛盾中进行"两难选择"和相权协调.     

中小企业提升竞争力面临的挑战及原因分析

加入WTO后,中国中小企业在国内市场面对的竞争格局发生了变化,除了与国内国有大型企业竞争,外商投资企业和国外企业也加入竞争行列。传统的竞争优势受到了新的挑战,出现了＂前有狼,后有虎＂的局面。探讨中小企业提升竞争力遇到的挑战及原因,研究中小企业竞争力问题,对于我国中小企业发展具有重要的指导意义。     

旅行社价格战的博弈分析

旅行社是旅游产品设计、组织和销售的渠道商以及消费者之间的桥梁.旅行社对旅游业具有重要影响，旅行社之间的价格竞争日益严重，盈利率低。随着我国加入世贸组织，越来越多的外国旅行社进入我国、针对我国旅行社如何走出困境，本文从博弈角度分析旅行社的价格竞争及其对策。     

Profiling mobile TV adopters in college student populations of Korea

By profiling demographic characteristics, perceived general adoption attributes, perceived value-based adoption attributes, motivational needs, mass media use, and content interest, this exploratory study examines the nature of four categories of mobile TV adopters — current, potential, continuous non-, and discontinuous user groups. Despite the limited sample size (N = 214), there are some meaningful findings. First of all, the non-adoption rate of mobile TV of the continuous non-, and discontinuous user groups is higher than the adoption rate of the current and potential user groups. Less than half of the respondents (N = 34) who had used TV on a mobile device were unwilling to use it again in the next twelve months, and almost half of those (N = 102) did not have the intention of using it within the coming year. The results suggest that the discontinuous group seems to have been dissatisfied with the actual mobile TV use when compared with their expectations and evaluations, while the potential user group is more likely to have high expectations and positive evaluations before the adoption and use of mobile TV. All user groups were unwilling to pay the fee, despite the current and potential user groups perceiving the exceptional values. No differences were found in the personality trait of innovativeness and mass media use behaviors among the four groups.     

双寡头市场中电视媒体平台的质量水平及定价策略研究

本文以电视媒体平台为例,以竞争平台企业如何确定平台质量水平为出发点,建立了双寡头双边市场竞争模型,旨在给出双边市场价格结构的参考。本文主要运用完全信息静态博弈收益矩阵,试图找到纳什均衡。分析可得,媒体平台企业的主要收入来自于广告,其努力寻求更广泛的观众是为了拥有更多的广告收入。媒体平台企业为了吸引更多的广告商,最终会选择提高平台质量水平。     

Growth and equilibrium indeterminacy: the role of capital mobility

Summary. The paper presents a human capital driven endogenous growth model which, in general, permits a multiplicity of equilibrium balanced growth paths. It is shown that allowing for perfect capital mobility across countries increases the range of parameter values for which the model permits equilibrium indeterminacy. As opposed to the closed capital markets case, simple restrictions on preferences are no longer sufficient to eliminate the indeterminacy. Intuitively, under perfect capital mobility agents are able to smooth consumption completely. This induces an economy with open capital markets to behave like a closed economy with linear preferences thereby increasing the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy. Received: 18 November 1998; revised version: 10 August 1999     

The modern foundations of Marx's monetary economics

The first chapters of Capital are still often ‘tlerated’, Mirowski (1986: 222) reminds us, as a ‘regrettable metaphysical residuum of [Max's] Hegelian [past]’. Such ‘tolerance’ has unfortunate consequences, howeve, not the least of which is Marx's reputation for ‘theoretical metallism’, simple and derivative. This paper builds on the recent efforts of de Brunhoff (1981), Lavoie (1983) and others to deconstruct, with support from Grundrisse and related texts, the important thrid chapter of Capital, Marx's account of the universal equivalent's four functions. As it is identified here, the chapter's core includes ‘pody-Keynesian’ elements– a reversal of the Ricardian view of the quantity equation, an effective demand principle in which capitalists’ dcisions about the recommitment of hoards assume a prominent role, and the deermination of interest rates, in the short term, on the basis of liquidity preference-– but does not include, in the conventional sense, a commodity theory of money.     

Sensitivity analysis for applied general equilibrium models in the presence of multiple Walrasian equilibria

Summary. Pagan and Shannon's (1985) widely used approach employs local linearizations of a system of non-linear equations to obtain asymptotic distributions for the endogenous parameters (such as prices) from distributions over the exogenous parameters (such as estimates of taste, technology, or policy variables, for example). However, this approach ignores both the possibility of multiple equilibria as well as the problem (related to that of multiplicity) that critical points might be contained in the confidence interval of an exogenous parameter. We generalize Pagan and Shannon's approach to account for multiple equilibria by assuming that the choice of equilibrium is described by a random selection. We develop an asymptotic theory regarding equilibrium prices, which establishes that their probability density function is multimodal and that it converges to a weighted sum of normal density functions. An important insight is that if a model allows multiple equilibria, say , but multiplicity is ignored, then the computed solution for the i-th equilibrium generally no longer coincides with the expected value of that i-th equilibrium. The error can be large and correspond to several standard deviations of the mean's estimate. Received: December 7, 1999; revised version: December 4, 2000     

Information and the persistence of private-order contract enforcement institutions: An experimental analysis

We study an experimental market in which some sellers are prone to moral hazard, and in which a private-order contract enforcement institution exists that can mediate trade and prevent sellers from reneging on their contractual obligations. Using the institution to resolve the moral-hazard problem is costly. We demonstrate that in this market, the utilization of the private-order contract enforcement institution may make public and private market signals uninformative and inhibit learning. We study whether this potential information externality can limit adaptation away from the private-order institution when it is efficient to do so. Consistent with theory, we find inefficient persistence when the institution is used, but by contrast, efficient adaptation in other situations. Providing information to individuals who are using the private-order institution allows them to partially adapt.     

The inflationary bias of real uncertainty and the harmonic Fisher equation

Summary. We argue that real uncertainty itself causes long-run nominal inflation. Consider an infinite horizon cash-in-advance economy with a representative agent and real uncertainty, modeled by independent, identically distributed endowments. Suppose the central bank fixes the nominal rate of interest. We show that the equilibrium long-run rate of inflation is strictly higher, on almost every path of endowment realizations, than it would be if the endowments were constant.Indeed, we present an explicit formula for the long-run rate of inflation, based on the famous Fisher equation. The Fisher equation says the short-run rate of inflation should equal the nominal rate of interest less the real rate of interest. The long-run Fisher equation for our stochastic economy is similar, but with the rate of inflation replaced by the harmonic mean of the growth rate of money.Received: 25 February 2005, Revised: 26 May 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, C73, D81, E41, E58.An earlier version of this paper “Inflationary Bias in a Simple Stochastic Economy,” as a 2001 Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1333.     

森林生态服务价值评价研究有关问题的探讨

研究生态系统服务及其经济价值评价的理论与方法，已成为当前国内外可持续发展评估研究的焦点和重要内容。本文分析了森林生态系统服务功能价值评价研究的意义．论述了近年来国内外森林生态系统服务功能价值评价研究的进展，指出了其中存在的主要问题．并在此基础上探讨了森林生态系统服务功能价值评价研究的方向与重点，以期为今后的研究提供参考。     

Vicious and virtuous circles — The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA

This paper develops a political economy model of multiple unemployment equilibria to provide a theory of an endogenous natural rate of unemployment for the UK and the US interwar period. The theory here sees the natural rate and the associated path of unemployment as a reaction to mainly demand shocks and the institutional structure of the economy. The channel through which these two forces feed on each other is a political economy process whereby voters with limited information on the natural rate react to shocks by demanding more or less social protection. The reduced form results confirm a pattern of unemployment behaviour in which unemployment moves between high and low equilibria in response to shocks.     

The price normalization problem in imperfect competition and the objective of the firm

Summary. General equilibrium models of oligopolistic competition give rise to relative prices only without determining the price level. It is well known that the choice of a numéraire or, more generally, of a normalization rule converting relative prices into absolute prices entails drastic consequences for the resulting set of Nash equilibria when firms are assumed to maximize profits. This is due to the fact that changing the price normalization amounts to altering the objective functions of the firms. Clearly, the objective of a firm must not be based on price normalization rules void of any economic content. In this paper we propose a definition of the objective of a firm, called maximization of shareholders' real wealth, which takes shareholders' demand explicitly into account. This objective depends on relative prices only. Real wealth maxima are shown to exist under certain conditions. Moreover, we consider an oligopolistic market and prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium in which each firm maximizes the real wealth of its shareholders. Received: July 10, 1997; revised version: July 27, 1998     

Welfare and equity impacts of cross-border factor mobility in Bangladesh: A general equilibrium analysis

We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with cross-border factor mobility to assess the impacts of a foreign wage shock and the effects of counteractive policy measures in Bangladesh. The model features migration of workers and foreign direct investment (FDI) in the ready-made garments (RMG) sector. Our simulation results show that returning migrants induced by a foreign wage fall would reduce household welfare by lowering wages and increasing unemployment, particularly for unskilled workers in the domestic labor market. To counteract this negative shock, FDI promotion in the RMG sector and a human-capital development program are considered. The former policy minimizes the negative impacts of the foreign labor market shock, while a combination of both policies is more equitable.