Urban sector income distribution and economic development

This paper examines the relationship between measures of urban sector inequality and economic development for a sample of 25 developing and newly industrialized countries. A U-shaped relationship is found in which bottom urban quintiles' income shares initially decline and then rise as per capita income increases. This relationship is strengthened when an estimate of urban per capita income replaces national per capita income as the development measure. The curves suggest that per capita incomes of the bottom quintiles will never decline as development proceeds, but may rise only very slowly.     

Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings

The time-series properties of per capita income and per capita earnings in the regions of the United States are tested for consistency with the neoclassical growth model's prediction of convergence. We find evidence for per capita income convergence for U.S. regions during the 1929–1990 period after allowing for a trend break in 1946. These findings support the neoclassical model's prediction of convergence. The evidence for per capita earnings convergence is, however, less conclusive. Shocks to per capita earnings are found to be more persistent than shocks to per capita income. This implies that the regional distribution of transfer payments tends to smooth the effects of deviation on relative regional per capita earnings and reinforce trends in per capita income convergence.     

Dreams of urbanization: Quantitative case studies on the local impacts of nuclear power facilities using the synthetic control method

This paper uses the synthetic control (SC) method to examine how the establishment of nuclear power facilities (NPFs) in Japan in the 1970s and 1980s has affected local per capita income levels in the municipalities in which they were localted (NPF municipalities). Eight quantitative case studies using the SC method clarify that the effects of NPF establishment on per capita taxable income levels are highly heterogeneous. The estimated effects are often economically meaningful and in some cases huge: the income level was 11% higher on average and 62% higher in one municipality in 2002 when compared with counterfactual units. On the other hand a few of the NPF municipalities have received only weak or negligible effects from NPF establishment. The post-estimation comparisons of employment between the NPF municipalities and the SC units suggest that the size of the direct labor demand shocks and subsequent indirect employment effects on nontradable service sectors have contributed to the increase in per capita income levels.     

Who Gains from the Demographic Dividend? Forecasting Income by Age

Changes in the population age structure are known to influence the total income per person, but little is known about whether the changes are equally shared across the population or are concentrated on particular age groups and/or birth cohorts. The answer to this question has potentially important implications for income inequality, human capital investment, and fertility decision-making. We propose a new model of intergenerational transfers which distinguishes between the effects of changes in population structure and the effects of changes in family age structure. Using age-specific data from annual income and expenditure surveys of Taiwan between 1978 and 1998, we show that changes in age structure have had a very favorable effect on Taiwan's income growth. The gains are not equally shared by all age groups, however. Children and young adults have benefited the most, while the elderly have benefited the least. The population and family age structures have independent effects on per capita income; the effect of the population age structure is most important. Generational differences in per capita income are closely related to intergenerational differences in earnings, suggesting only a weak form of altruism. Finally, we predict that, on average, population aging will adversely influence the per capita income growth in Taiwan in the coming decades.     

Structural estimation of stock market participation costs

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers' decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor income; however, it varies substantially over consumers' life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers' life cycle.     

IMPACT OF RELATIVE POPULATION CHANGE ON REGIONAL INCOME CONVERGENCE: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

The aim of this paper is to show the impact of relative population change on regional income convergence. Using the panel data of 64 Turkish provinces from 1987 to 2000, the results from modified convergence analyses show that both income and per capita income between provinces in Turkey indicate converging patterns. The convergence rates for the provincial per capita income, however, turned out to be about 30 percent larger than that of income. In order to examine this difference, the impact of relative population change on the growth process is incorporated using a decomposition analysis. The findings suggest that 17 percent of the 100 percentage point growth of per capita income resulted from the change in population share in favour of the provinces with high per capita incomes. The existence and pace of regional income convergence, therefore, may well be related to the degree of relative population change.     

Buying Decision Coordination and Monopoly Pricing of Network Goods

We analyze how uncertainty about consumers' preferences affects the pricing of a network device and the interaction usage it enables. A premium device price may give high hardware profits, but adoption will be low reducing the profits from interaction services. The firm internalizing this adjusts its hardware price downward, and prices as if it was getting the maximal interaction usage profits from the full network. Profits decrease in uncertainty, whereas consumer surplus increases in uncertainty, but only if the level of uncertainty is high. Bundling the device and services is profitable if uncertainty relates mostly to consumers' private information.     

基于逐步回归法的皖西物流需求研究

影响区域物流需求的因素有经济总量、贸易水平等经济指标。文中选取皖西地区2001～2012年期间GDP、全社会固定资产投资、进出口总额、城镇居民人均可支配收入、社会消费品零售总额为自变量,以货运周转量代替物流需求量为因变量,通过SPSS软件用逐步回归法对皖西物流需求情况进行多元线性回归分析,得出全社会固定资产投资及城镇居民人均可支配收入对货运周转量有显著影响,并提出建议。     

中国城镇化进程对房地产价格影响的实证分析

使用城镇化率、流动人口占比、城镇居民人均总收入和房屋竣工面积4个变量指标来反映我国城镇化进程,运用随机效应面板数据模型,对比分析2005—2013年全国、较发达省份和发展中省份的城镇化进程对房地产价格的影响。实证研究表明：城镇化率提高、流动人口占比增加,对房价的影响实际非常有限;城镇居民人均总收入水平的增加才是引起房价上涨的最重要因素;房屋竣工面积的扩大则引起房价的下跌。区域对比研究还发现,由于城镇化进程不同,相比较发达省份,发展中省份的外来务工人员产生了更有效的住房需求。     

INCOME PERSISTENCE AND MACRO-POLICY FEEDBACKS IN THE US*

This paper analyses and forecasts annual time series of aggregate real income per head in the US. The approach integrates elements from recent univariate time series analyses with multi-equation macromodels in which policy feedback rules have been endogenized. The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, aggregate real per capita income is subject to significant trend reversion. This conclusion comes through more clearly by examining the data at an annual rather than the more usual quarterly frequency and by incorporating multivariate economic content in the income process. Secondly, there is significant evidence for the Lucas (1976) or Haavelmo (1944) critique: in the US there appears to have been a shift in the structural macropolicy reaction function causing a corresponding shift in the reduced form income forecasting equation. This is associated with increased concern in the late 1980's over the size of US budget deficits. Thirdly, with the above proviso, useful real income forecasts can be made as far as three years ahead. Finally, the paper provides empirical evidence for the effectiveness of monetary policy on real output or income. The change in the short-term interest rate is highly significant in forecasting income growth up to three years after the change.     

Development threshold,capital flows,and financial turbulence

We study capital flows in a panel of 130 countries, and derive the implications for the observed patterns of capital flows and capital controls before and into the crisis of 2008–11. We find that the size of capital flows is positively correlated with country's income level. In addition, capital flight has a non-linear relationship with the income level. Using the Hansen threshold estimation, we identify a three-stage threshold effect: for low-income countries (GDP per capita below US$ 3,000), capital flight increases as the income level rises; and only after the economy passes a threshold level (GDP per capita above US$ 5,000), capital flight declines with income. We conclude with a case study of Brazil and Korea, observing that the decisions to implement capital control measures tend to be pushed around by the feedbacks among economic growth, currency appreciation, and the global financial conditions.     

Migration and the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis Revisited

This study investigates, using state-level data for the period 2000–2005, the Tiebout hypothesis (as extended by Tullock) of "voting with one's feet." This analysis differs from previous related studies not only in its adoption of more current migration and other data but also in other ways. First, unlike most earlier related studies, it includes a separate measure of the overall cost of living; second, it examines per pupil (rather than per capita) outlays on public primary and secondary education; and third, in addition to property taxes, it also focuses on per capita state income tax burdens. Inclusion of the last of these variables in the analysis is based on studies that have found the existence of a state income tax to have influenced migration patterns and other studies that have found higher state income tax levels to have resulted in reduced per capita income growth over time. Moreover, including both property tax burdens and income tax burdens broadens the scope of the hypothesis. Strong empirical support for the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis (as interpreted here) is obtained for the study period.     

DISTRIBUTION DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE AMONG 75 CITIES AND COUNTIES IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA IN CHINA: 1990–2005

This paper applies the distribution dynamics method to study the per capita income disparity from 1990 to 2005 among the 75 cities and counties in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the distribution of per capita income across the YRD has changed from being bi‐modal to being positively skewed over the period 1990–2005; the income disparity lessened in the 8th Five‐Year Plan, increased in the 9th Five‐Year Plan, and then reduced again somewhat in the 10th Five‐Year Plan. Secondly, the main contribution to disparity comes from the intra disparity of the Jiangsu region which is bi‐modal over the period. Thirdly, the rich and poor cities developed independently and steadily at different speeds. Fourthly, convergence in the YRD is caused by the decline of the rich cities rather than progress by the poor cities. Finally, there is relative independence in the region's development, but over the long‐term, the YRD indicates a trend of convergence.     

Culture, Economic Development, and Quality of Life: A Speculative Comment on the Case of Kerala, India

Abstract . Kerala State, India, had a per capita income of abott $290 for 1985, about the same as other Indian states. But Kerala has a Physical Quality of Life Index of 79 (compared to 43 for India). Saudi Arabia has a per capita income of $8,850 for 1985 but a PQLI of 28. How come? Of course, per capita income does not measure income distribution and India is a plural democracy while Saudi Arabia is an authoritarian monarchy. But the critical factor may well be culture.     

Does military expenditure crowd out health-care spending? Cross-country empirics

The trade-off between military expenditure and public health spending has remained an unsettled empirical issue. This paper investigates whether military expenditure has crowded out public health spending in 116 countries (including a subsample of 87 non-OECD countries) over the period 2000–2017. Through our system generalized methods of moments (GMM) estimations, we find that military expenditure, whether it is measured on a per-capita basis or as a proportion of total government expenditure, has a positive impact on the demand for health care. Nonetheless, we find a significant crowding-out effect of military expenditure on domestic government health spending by taking into account government fiscal capacity. The evidence we present supports the long-standing view that military expenditure has a particular ability to compete government financial resources away from publicly funded health spending. By interacting the military expenditure variable with income per capita, we find that an increase in income per capita has neutralized the crowding-out effect of military expenditure on domestic government health spending – less well-off countries stand to suffer most, and wealthy ones stand to suffer least, from the crowding-out effect. The crowding-out effect is statistically more specific to middle- and low-income countries in our samples.

     

General equilibrium analysis of the benefits of large transportation improvements

This paper considers three benefit measures of a large transportation improvement in a general equilibrium framework, i.e., the Marshall-Dupuit consumer's surplus, the. compensating variation, and the compensating surplus. First, we examine whether or not the measures can be reduced to the area to the left of a suitably defined transportation demand curve. Second, the measures are expressed as functions of various price and income elasticities which can be empirically estimated and we analyze factors affecting the magnitudes of the general equilibrium benefit measures. Third, the general equilibrium measures are compared with the partial equilibrium measures.     

Why should firms manufacture retailer brands?

For firms manufacturing convenience goods there are three branding policies available, a proprietory brand policy, a retailer brand policy and a mixed brand policy. A firm's choice depends on differences in demand and promotion costs between the proprietory and retailer brand markets. This can be analysed using a simple elaboration of the standard 3rd degree price discrimination model. But if the two markets are not independent over the long-term there may be other consequences of following the optimization rules of the model. If retailers develop consumers' preference for their own shops and their own brands, the demand advantage enjoyed by manufacturers' brands may be reduced further. The more willing are manufacturers to supply retailer brands, the more retailers win undermine the demand for manufacturers' proprietory brands.     

A Simple Test for Convergence of Metropolitan Income in the United States

The prevalent test for income convergence used in many recent studies of convergence across spatial economic units in the United States is to use a regression equation in which income growth is regressed against the initial level of income (this is known as β convergence). That method, however, has been crtiticized as an instance of Galton's fallacy of regression. We devise a simple test for the income β-convergence hypothesis which does not suffer from “Galton's fallacy” and apply it to all of the metropolitan areas of the United States for the period 1969–1995. For the test we use two income measures: per capita personal income and average wages. Our results conclusively support convergence of per capita personal income and of wage per worker for metropolitan areas in the United States. We also test for σ convergence, the hypothesis of diminishing dispersion in income among places over time, and find no support for the hypothesis.     

The demand for housing in developing countries: The case of Korea

This paper presents the results of an analysis of urban housing demand for Korea taking into account the most recent findings of housing demand analysis concerning specification and aggregation biases. In order to obtain correctly specified demand functions, a procedure based on a model of the housing market originally proposed by Muth is used. Drawing on the detailed land information available in Korea, this procedure permits the calculation of an individual price per unit of housing services for each household. The results show conclusively that both the income and price elasticity of the demand for housing services in Korea are comparable to those found in the United States: the income elasticity is smaller than one and the price elasticity is negative and smaller than one in absolute value. Given the number of countries found within the per capita income range between Korea ($700) and the United States ($7800), the finding that these two countries have comparable demand elasticities is of major significance: in the absence of good national estimates, the order of magnitudes found here would be used for other country analyses.     

Factors Influencing Consumer Willingness to Pay for Low‐Carbon Products: A Simulation Study in China

Consumer choice behavior is crucial to supporting cleaner production and plays an essential role in low‐carbon development and environmental policy‐making. Therefore, combining system dynamics with an agent‐based model (SD–AB), the present study explores influencing factors on both providers' and consumers' sides. Using empirical data from selected firms and a questionnaire survey of residents in China, the simulation results revealed that consumers' low‐carbon awareness and income have little effect on their willingness to pay for low‐carbon products. In contrast, some factors have an obvious effect on consumers' willingness to pay for low‐carbon products, including the delivery speed of low‐carbon products, consumers' patience and degree of satisfaction. Thus, companies that provide low‐carbon products should be more focused on customer expectations and should ensure timely and efficient delivery to consumers. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment