Time series volatility of commodity futures prices

This article examines the pattern of volatility over time of a series of commodity futures prices, and focuses in particular on the futures price variability as the maturity date of the futures contract approaches. In a rational expectations model of asymmetric information, the article provides conditions under which the Samuelson hypothesis—that the variability of futures prices increases as maturity approaches—will be true. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20: 127–144, 2000     

The realized volatility of FTSE‐100 futures prices

Five‐minute returns from FTSE‐100 index futures contracts are used to obtain accurate estimates of daily index volatility from January 1986 to December 1998. These realized volatility measures are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and autocorrelation properties of FTSE‐100 volatility. The distribution of volatility measured daily is similar to lognormal while the volatility time series has persistent positive autocorrelation that displays long‐memory effects. The distribution of daily returns standardized using the measures of realized volatility is shown to be close to normal, unlike the unconditional distribution. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:627–648, 2002     

The stock closing calland futures price behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan futures market

This study examines the behavior of futures prices around stock market close before and after changes to the batching period of the stock closing call. On July 1, 2002, the Taiwan Stock Exchange expanded the length of the batching period roughly 10‐fold, from an average of 30 seconds to 5 minutes. This change presents an opportunity to analyze how a stock closing method affects the behavior of index futures prices. Empirical results indicate that an increase in the length of the batching period affects the return volatility and trading volume of index futures contracts around stock market close. Furthermore, preclose stock returns have a great impact on extended futures returns when the batching period of the stock closing call is long. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:1003–1019, 2007     

The effect of spot and futures trading on stock index market volatility: A nonparametric approach

This article provides empirical evidence on the intraday relation between spot volatility and trading volume in the Spanish stock index futures market. GARCH methodology is used to estimate spot volatility. We analyze the potential relation between spot and futures trading volume and spot volatility by estimating the corresponding conditional density functions as proposed in Quah (1997). Our results reveal no significant link between those variables. Similar findings arise when expected and unexpected volume is considered. Our results suggest that derivative market is not a force behind episodes of significant spot jump volatility. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:841–858, 2003     

Liquidity supply and volatility: futures market evidence

This article examines the provision of liquidity in futures markets as price volatility changes. We find that customer trading costs do not increase with volatility. However, for three of the four contracts studied, the nature of liquidity supply changes with volatility. Specifically, for relatively inactive contracts, customers as a group trade more with each other and less with market makers, on higher volatility days. By contrast, for the most active contract, trading between customers and market makers increases with volatility. We also find that market makers' income per contract decreases with volatility for one of the least active contracts in our sample, but is not significantly affected by volatility for the other contracts. These results are consistent with the idea that, for high‐cost, inactive contracts, market makers react to temporary increases in volatility by raising their bid‐ask spreads significantly, and customers provide increased liquidity through standing limit orders. An implication of our results is that electronic systems, where market maker participation is not required, are able to supply adequate liquidity during volatile periods. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:1–17, 2001     

Detecting and modeling changing volatility in the copper futures market

Copper futures returns are characterized by negative skewness and excess kurtosis. Research has not yet examined this nonnormality, which contributes to their volatility. To date little attention has been paid to the modeling of these series. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to (i) detect alternating subperiods of volatility by using a method that uses an iterated cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm to identify breakpoints in the series; and (ii) compare the ability of five models (the random walk, GARCH, EGARCH, AGARCH, and the GJR model) to capture the volatility within each ICSS identified subperiod. These tests were applied to two copper futures series (open to close and close to close prices). Results indicate that the ranking (in terms of the root mean square error) is similar for both series. That is, the GARCH or EGARCH model rank first and second, depending on the series, followed by the GJR model. AGARCH and the random walk models perform poorly.© 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 79–100, 1999     

Can exchange seat prices predict financial market volatility?

There is considerable evidence that trading volume and volatility are positively related and that exchange seat prices are largely a function of trading volume. This article examines whether changes in seat prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (where stock index and interest rate futures account for the vast majority of trading volume) are useful in predicting changes in interest rate and stock market volatility. Exponential GARCH and transfer function models are used to demonstrate the power of changes in CBOT seat prices in predicting changes in interest rate and stock market volatility. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1206–1221, 2008     

The relationship between spot and futures prices: Evidence from the crude oil market

This article examines the relationship between the spot and futures prices of WTI crude oil using a sample of daily data. Linear causality testing reveals that futures prices lead spot prices, but nonlinear causality testing reveals a bidirectional effect. This result suggests that both spot and futures markets react simultaneously to new information. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 175–193, 1999