Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies

We analyse the COVID-19 pandemic shock on small open economies (SOEs) in the euro area in a unified modelling framework: the Euro Area and the Global Economy model. We find strong negative international spillovers affecting each of the modelled SOEs, stemming not only from the rest of the euro area, but also from the United States and the rest of the world. A lower bound on nominal interest rates in the euro area amplifies these spillovers, especially within the euro area. Furthermore, we find some positive spillovers from the fiscal measures implemented in the Euro area to combat the pandemic, including the new Next Generation EU instrument.     

On the sources of macroeconomic stability in the euro area

In the mid-1990s the euro area experienced a change in macroeconomic volatility. Around the same time, at business cycle frequencies the correlation between inflation and money growth changed markedly, turning from positive to negative. Distinguishing the periods pre- and post-1994, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with money for the euro area. The model accounts for the salient facts. We then perform several counterfactual exercises to assess the drivers of these phenomena. The moderation of real variables was essentially due to relatively smaller shocks to investment, wage markups and preferences. The apparent lack of evidence for the quantity theory of money in the short run and the changes in the volatility of nominal variables resulted primarily from a more anti-inflationary and gradual monetary policy.     

Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU: An optimal currency area perspective

In the light of the recent financial crisis, we take a panel cointegration approach that allows for structural breaks to the analysis of the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in nine economies of the European Monetary Union. We find evidence for a level break in the cointegrating relationship. Moreover, results show that (i) fiscal imbalances – namely expected government debt-to-GDP differentials – are the main long-run drivers of sovereign spreads; (ii) liquidity risks and cumulated inflation differentials have non-negligible weights; but (iii) all conclusions are ultimately connected to whether or not the sample of countries is composed of members of an Optimal Currency Area (OCA). In particular, we establish (i) that results are overall driven by those countries not passing the OCA test; and (ii) that investors closely monitor and severely punish the deterioration of expected debt positions of those economies exhibiting significant gaps in competitiveness.     

The natural rate of interest and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation

The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (Interest and prices. Macmillan, London Translation of 1898 edition, 1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output at its potential level and stationary inflation. Such a concept is of primary concern for monetary policy because it provides a benchmark for the monetary policy stance. This paper applies the method suggested by Laubach and Williams (Rev Econ Stat 85(4):1063–1070, 2003) to jointly estimate the natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area using data from 1960 onwards. Our results suggest that the natural real rate of interest has declined gradually over the past 40 years. They also indicate that monetary policy in the euro area was on average stimulative during the 1960s and the 1970s, while it contributed to dampen the output gap and inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the institutions to which they are affiliated. We are grateful to Siem Jan Koopman for very helpful suggestions and comments. We also thank P. Cour-Thimann, V. Curdia, F. Drudi, S. McCaw, D. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, R. Pilegaard, H. Pill, L. Stracca, T. Laubach, J. C. Williams and the participants of an ECB workshop on natural interest rates.     

全球价值链模式的产业转移与区域协调发展

中国通过承接国际产业转移成为世界工厂的同时,也面临着产业升级和区域协调发展的双重任务.本文首先指出中国承接第三次国际产业转移本质上是全球价值链模式的产业转移.其次,在封闭经济条件下运用商务成本理论分析了全球价值链模式的产业转移在国内不同区域之间转移的条件.最后,在开放经济条件下为了避免产业外移到其它国家,中国应该立足于在位优势和大国优势构建国内价值链,以充分发挥学习曲线的效应.     

Multi-agent simulations to explore rules for rural credit in a highland farming community of Northern Thailand

Multi-agent systems (MAS) open new modelling and analysis perspectives in ecological and social sciences. An original characteristic of the companion modelling (ComMod) approach adopted in this case study is the co-construction and use of a MAS model with and for local stakeholders such as farmers and local administrators. Alternating iteratively field and modelling activities, this approach facilitates collective learning among local stakeholders and between them and the researchers. Combining the use of MAS models with role-playing games (RPG), the described experiment aimed to facilitate collective decision-making in a socially heterogeneous community of small farmers in mountainous Northern Thailand about the local rules for the allocation of rural credit to allow a more equitable and extensive process of expansion of non-erosive perennial crops in a watershed prone to erosion. This paper presents the MAS model and the results of a series of simulations exploring the ecological, social and economic effects of various rules for formal and informal credit suggested by the villagers-participants. Six scenarios considered as pertinent to further explore the participants' suggestions were defined based on different combinations among the following three variables: (i) Duration for the reimbursement of loans, (ii) Mode of allocation of formal credit among three different types of farms, (iii) Configuration of networks of acquaintances for access to informal credit.Drawing on this case study, we first elaborate on the potential of bottom-up models such as MAS to analyze the functioning of agricultural systems, in particular farm differentiation and rural credit dynamics. We highlight the ability of MAS to deal with interactions between social and ecological dynamics and to provide an alternative to classical economic thinking by analyzing the effects at the village level of social interactions among individuals. MAS allow us in particular to trigger an overlooked but nevertheless fundamental aspect of socio-ecological systems, i.e. social capital which is a determining factor when dealing with sustainability issues. The second question addressed in this paper deals with the potential and limits of MAS models to support a bottom-up (or participatory) modelling approach. This experiment suggests that the usefulness of models relies much more on the modelling process than on the model itself, because a model is usually useless if it is misunderstood by its potential users, or if it does not respond to their current preoccupations. The intuitive representation of real systems provided by MAS and their high flexibility are the two underlined characteristics favouring their appropriation by local stakeholders.     

Socio economic impact of vegetable production in Senegal：a case study of Niayes area

Vegetable production plays a very important role not only as a source of foreign exchange for Senegal and an appreciation of the dietary needs of populations,but also in the context of the policy of diversification.Thus the aim of this analysis is to measure the important economic impact and vegetable industrial actors,find the limited factors of the horticulture development and the perspectives for improving the vegetable production in the area.Our results show that the National production of fruits and vegetables is estimated approximately at 370,000 tons and the Niayes zone constitutes 80%of the domestic production.Horticulture is a sector which creates employments in that area with important incomes earned by both producers and the various intermediaries（commercial process） .The volume of exports has reached 14,321.588 tons in（2002-2003） against 11,125.132 tons in（2001-2002） witnessing than an increase of 28.7%,but the one of imports is very important and represents an outflow of foreign currency estimated at about 3 billion per year.     

Cost-effectiveness of switching to biphasic insulin aspart from human premix insulin in a US setting

Objectives: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching to biphasic insulin aspart (BIAsp 30) from human premix insulin for type 2 diabetes patients in the United States (US) setting.

Methods: The previously published and validated IMS Core Diabetes Model was used to project life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and costs over 30 years. Patient characteristics and treatment effects were based on Canadian patients included the IMPROVE observational study (n = 311). Mean glycohaemoglobin (HbA_1c) was 8.4%, duration of diabetes 16 years and prevalence of complications high at baseline. Simulations were conducted from the perspective of a third-party payer, with costs accounted in 2008 US dollars ($).

Results: BIAsp 30 was projected to improve life expectancy by 0.202 years and QALE by 0.301 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), due to a reduced incidence of most diabetes-related complications. BIAsp 30 was associated with increased lifetime direct medical costs ($76,517 vs. 67,518) and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $29,870 per QALY gained. Long-term outcomes were sensitive to the impact of BIAsp 30 on hypoglycaemia and changes in HbA_1c.

Conclusions: BIAsp 30 may represent a cost-effective treatment option in the US setting for advanced type 2 diabetes patients experiencing poor glycaemic control or hypoglycaemia on human premix insulin.

Limitations: The application of treatment effect data derived from a Canadian cohort to the US setting was a limitation of the cost-effectiveness analysis. The findings of this cost-effectiveness analysis are not applicable to insulin-naïve diabetes patients.     

How foreign investments contribute to economic growth of industrial parks in China: a production-frontier decomposition approach

We study the importance of foreign direct investment for economic growth of 52 Chinese industrial parks from 2007 to 2015. For this task, we extend a production-frontier methodology, specially designed to decompose economic growth into different sources, to take two types of capital into account. Our results reveal that foreign capital is necessary for boosting economic growth of the parks, but domestic capital played the main role.     

Economic impact of compliance to treatment with antidiabetes medication in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a review paper

Abstract

Objectives: Suboptimal compliance and failure to persist with antidiabetes therapies are of potential economic significance. The present research aims to describe the impact of poor compliance and persistence with antidiabetes medications on the cost of healthcare or its components for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Methods: Literature search was conducted in PubMed for relevant articles published in the period between 1 January 2000 and 30 April 2009. Thus, it is possible that relevant articles not listed in PubMed, but available in other databases are not included in the current review. Studies describing economic consequence of compliance and/or persistence with pharmaceutical antidiabetes treatment were identified. The variability in the studies reviewed was high, making it extremely difficult to make a comparison between them.

Results: Of 449 articles corresponding to the primary search algorithm, 12 studies (all conducted in USA) fulfilled the inclusion criteria regarding the economic impact of compliance and/or persistence with treatment on the overall cost of T2DM care or its components. Compliance was assessed via medication possession ratio (MPR) in ten studies, where it ranged from 0.52 to 0.93 depending on regimen. Persistence was assessed in one study. Mean total annual costs per T2DM patient varied between the studies, ranging from $4570 to $17338. In seven studies, medication compliance was inversely associated with total healthcare costs, while in four other studies inverse associations between medication compliance and hospitalisation costs were reported. In one study increased adherence did not change overall healthcare costs.

Conclusions: Improved compliance may lead to reductions of the total healthcare costs in T2DM, Further research is needed in countries other than the US to assess impact of compliance and persistence to pharmacotherapy on T2DM costs in country-specific settings.     

Cost-effectiveness of a continuous glucose monitoring system with trending and rate information to predict hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia in pregnant women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus

Summary

This study seeks to determine the cost-effectiveness of the FreeStyle Navigator? continuous glucose monitoring system compared with self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) when predicting hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia in pregnant women with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus. A Markov model was constructed, and initial model analysis demonstrates that use of the FreeStyle Navigator? by a patient who is trained in diabetes management is more cost-effective than SMBG, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $267 per quality-adjusted life-month ($3,204 per quality-adjusted life-year). The real-time glucose level rate of change and trend information provided by the FreeStyle Navigator? allows appropriately trained patients to improve upon decisions regarding self-treatment to prevent hypoglycaemic and hyperglycaemic episodes, resulting in a lower treatment cost and higher effectiveness than untrained patients. Based on current performance attributes, a device such as the FreeStyle Navigator? would be more cost-effective than other glucose-monitoring devices, meeting the $50,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold used by payers for adoption of new technology.     

Modelling the economic impact of recombinant activated Factor VII compared to activated prothrombin-complex concentrate in the home treatment of a mild to moderate bleed in adults with inhibitors to clotting Factors VIII and IX in the UK

Summary

This study estimated the costs and consequences of using recombinant activated Factor VII (rFVIIa; NovoSeven®) at home, compared to activated prothrombin-complex concentrate (aPCC; FEIBA®*) at home, to manage a minor (i.e. mild to moderate) bleeding episode in adults with high titre, high responding inhibitors (>10 BU). The analysis was performed from the perspective of the UK's National Health Service (NHS).

NovoSeven and FEIBA are registered trademarks of Novo Nordisk and Baxter Healthcare, respectively.

Clinical outcomes and resource utilisation attributable to managing a minor bleed were obtained from published literature, supplemented with information about treatment patterns and associated resource utilisation derived from interviews with a panel of 22 consultant haematologists experienced in managing inhibitor patients. Using these data sources a decision tree modelling the management of a minor bleed, initially at home, was constructed. Unit resource costs at 1999/2000 prices were applied to the resource utilisation estimates in the model to estimate the expected NHS cost of managing a minor bleeding episode. Consensus on the probabilities and resource utilisation estimates in the model were reached at a meeting comprising seven panel members.

The expected NHS cost of managing a minor bleeding episode initially treated with rFVIIa or aPCC at home was estimated to be £12,944 and £14,645, respectively. Additionally, the expected time to resolving a minor bleeding episode when initially treated with rFVIIa or aPCC at home was estimated to be 32 hours and 60 hours, respectively. Hence, rFVIIa improves clinical outcome compared to aPCC, but at no additional cost to the NHS, resulting in rFVIIa being the cost-effective treatment. This finding warrants further investigation in a prospective, comparative, randomised, controlled study.