Is there Value-Added Information in Liquidity and Risk Premiums?

Size has become a significant factor in explaining returns. According to the size effect, smaller capitalization stocks on average outperform larger capitalization stocks over long periods of time. This paper first documents the traditional size effect on the French market for the 1986–1998 period. It introduces a new proxy for size, free float, which is argued to be the appropriate measure of size and liquidity for most non‐US markets. Evidence is presented of a negative link between historical returns and free float. The link is significant even outside of the month of January, a notable divergence from results obtained on the NYSE. The rest of the paper is an attempt to take advantage of this 'ex‐post' phenomenon on an 'ex‐ante' basis, with an empirical study of the link between expected return, risk, and liquidity in a sample consisting of the main 150 stocks quoted on the Paris Bourse between January 1986 and January 1998. Liquidity premiums are estimated for portfolios from both a univariate and a multivariate perspective. The paper shows how risk and liquidity premiums can be used separately or in tandem for market timing and asset allocation. In all cases, the use of both premiums together leads to superior performance. Results confirm our measurements of liquidity and liquidity premiums and supply evidence that liquidity premiums together with risk premiums are useful in active asset management.     

Can Information Transparency Improve Earnings Quality Attributes? Evidence from an Enhanced Disclosure Regime in Taiwan

Investors demand timely and accurate corporate disclosures in order to comprehend the governance and performance of a firm; they also rely on quality earnings information to assess the intrinsic value of a company. This study links the two using a Taiwan sample because the government of Taiwan has just performed a market-wide corporate-transparency rating. We find significant improvement on four accounting-based earnings-quality attributes, including accrual quality, earnings persistence, predictability, and smoothness. Further, there is a statistically reliable association between the level of information transparency and each of these earnings attributes, implying that a disclosure mechanism design can enhance management accountability in financial reporting.     

Is there an Olympic gold medal rush in the stock market?

Investor sentiment and attention are often linked to the same non-economic events making it difficult to understand why and how asset prices are affected. We disentangle these two potential drivers of investment behaviour by analysing a new data-set of medals for the major participating countries and sponsor firms over four Summer Olympic Games. Our results show that trading volume and volatility are substantially reduced following Olympic success although returns appear to be largely unaffected. Analysis of data from online search volumes and surveys measuring investor sentiment also suggests that the market impact of the Olympics is linked to changes in attention.     

Is there an employee-based gender gap in informal financial markets? International evidence

We study the impact of female production workers on firms' access to trade credits across the world. Using two sources of plausibly exogenous variations in gender bias and a difference-in-differences framework, we document that firms with more female production workers have less access to trade credits in countries with stronger gender beliefs that favor males. This relationship is largely driven by firms in industries with unexpected credit shortages and industries dominated by males. Since female firms rely more on informal finance, this study is relevant for policies that direct female firms towards formal credit markets in highly gender-biased places.     

When Is Sticky Information More Information?

This paper uses sectoral data to study survey‐based balance indices designed to capture changes in the business cycle in real time. The empirical framework recognizes that when answering survey questions regarding their firm's output, respondents potentially rely on infrequently updated information. The analysis then suggests that their answers reflect notable information lags, on the order of 7^1/2 months on average. Moreover, information stickiness implies that noisy output fluctuations will be attenuated in survey answers and, consequently, helps explain why balance indices successfully track business cycles. Conversely, in an environment populated by fully informed identical firms, as in the standard RBC framework, for example, balance indices instead become degenerate. Finally, information regarding changes in aggregate output tends to be sectorally concentrated. The paper, therefore, illustrates how this feature of the data may be relevant for the construction of balance indices.     

Is there anyone out there?

In this review I.F. Clarke has taken the opportunity to look into the ideas and expectations that derive from our existence on a minor planet. The night sky has always had a special fascination for the inhabitants of Terra. In the beginning the heavenly bodies displayed the pattern of future events for all who could read their signs. Nowadays the signals are different. As I.F. Clarke shows, the Solar System has become the new frontier and a new future, so they say, is waiting out there in deep space.     

Is there price discovery in equity options?

We use tick-by-tick quote data for 39 liquid US stocks and options on them, and we focus on events when the two markets disagree about the stock price in the sense that the option-implied stock price obtained from the put-call parity relation is inconsistent with the actual stock price. Option market quotes adjust to eliminate the disagreement, while the stock market quotes behave normally, as if there were no disagreement. The disagreement events are typically precipitated by stock price movements and display signed option volume in the direction that tends to eliminate the disagreements. These results show that option price quotes do not contain economically significant information about future stock prices beyond what is already reflected in current stock prices, i.e., no economically significant price discovery occurs in the option market. We also find no option market price discovery using a much larger sample of disagreement events based on a weaker definition of a disagreement, which verifies that the findings for the primary sample are not due to unusual or unrepresentative market behavior during the put-call parity violations.     

Would Switching to Timely Reviews Delay Quarterly and Annual Earnings Releases?

The SEC recently issued a proposal to modernize and clarify the regulatory structure of securities offerings. The proposal would allow companies to access capital markets on an almost continuous basis but would require strengthening of the role of independent accountants and other gatekeepers in the registration process. The Commission is seeking comment on whether it should add to the proposed practices the fact than an independent accountant performed a timely review under SAS 71 of an issuer's quarterly financial information (SEC, 1998, p. 231). This is the most recent of several proposals, made by the SEC and others, that provides incentives for companies to purchase quarter-end (timely) reviews of their quarterly data. Some managers who currently have their quarterly earnings reviewed only at year-end (retrospective reviews) argue that having a timely review would delay interim earnings releases. Proponents of timely reviews deny that this would occur, and assert that shifting certain review procedures into interim periods would decrease the time needed to release annual earnings.We estimate the quarterly and annual reporting lags that would occur if companies currently selecting retrospective reviews switched to timely reviews. Our results indicate that quarterly earnings release lags would increase, as opponents of mandatory timely review have argued. Switching to timely review would reduce annual earnings release lags only when interim earnings contain unusual components.     

Is there a gender gap in CEO compensation?

The gender pay gap generates significant political and social debate. This study contributes to this discussion by examining if a gender pay gap exists at the highest level of corporate management, the CEOs. While previous studies have documented a gender pay gap for most levels of executives the findings with respect to CEOs are conflicting. In this paper we focus only on CEO's as it is the most homogenous of executive roles and does not require us to assume that executives with similar titles undertake identical roles. Our evidence is based on 291 US firm-years for the period of 1998–2010. We do not find any association between CEO pay and gender using both the total sample and a sample matched using propensity scores to control for firm characteristics. These insignificant results hold for total pay, salary and bonuses, and for different matching procedures and econometric specifications. Our results therefore indicate that women who rise through the “glass ceiling” to the level of CEO are remunerated at similar levels to their male counterparts.     

Is there a racial gap in CEO compensation?

Racial gap in corporate leadership has prompted continuous and intense discussions, motivating research into the conditions minorities face after they reach top management positions. We contribute to the ongoing debate in this area by examining the association between CEO race and compensation. We do not find evidence for a significant racial wage gap at the CEO level across various econometric specifications, including total-sample OLS, firm-fixed effects to capture CEO transitions within firm, propensity score matched sample, and instrumental variable analysis. The insignificant results hold for total compensation, cash compensation, and non-cash compensation. Further, there is no consistent evidence of differences in CEO compensation for any of the major racial groups (Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians). Based on our results, we conclude that racial minorities who make it to the CEO position in Corporate America are compensated at similar levels to their Caucasian counterparts.     

Is there an optimally diversified conglomerate? Gleaning answers from capital markets

Motivated by recent productivity-based theories of diversification, we argue that only conglomerates with an optimal degree of diversification can utilize their comparative advantages across various industries and achieve economies of scope by eliminating redundancies. Evidence from both corporate bond and equity markets suggests that optimally diversified conglomerates consist of either (1) approximately five equally weighted divisions, or (2) one large core business segment that roughly accounts for 75 % sales. Moreover, the relative size of divisions has a critical impact on how diversification affects credit spreads and excess values. Nonparity among divisions correlates with greater costs that increase with the number of divisions.     

Fiscal fragmentation and crime control: Is there an efficiency-equity tradeoff?

International Tax and Public Finance - This article investigates the effects of fiscal fragmentation on aggregate crime rates and the spatial disparities in crime rates among counties in a...     

Is there a CSI-leverage nexus?

We examine how various measures of consumer sentiment index (CSI) affect firms' debt policy decisions. Using U.S. firm-level quarterly data from 1993 to 2017, we provide a strong positive relationship between CSI measures and corporate debt policy, implying that firms use external borrowing during a positive economic outlook and reap the tax-shield benefit. We also find that improved household optimism over financial and business sentiments leads to future household consumption. The CSI-leverage nexus is moderated by the state of firms' financial condition, reputation, and profitability. Importantly, our results are robust to sub-sample analysis, firm-level and macroeconomic controls, econometric specifications, alternative measures of sentiment including Shiller's cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio (i.e., CAPE_SH), Baker and Wurgler (2006)’s stock market sentiment index (i.e., SENT_BW) and search-based uncertainty measure such as FEARS (i.e., Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search) index of Da, Engelberg, and Gao (2015).     

Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment

We provide evidence of private information in the foreign exchange market. The evidence comes from the introduction of trading in Tokyo over the lunch hour. Lunch-return variance doubles with the introduction of trading, which cannot be due to public information since the flow of public information did not change with the trading rules. We then exploit microstructure theory to discriminate between the two alternatives: private information and mispricing. Four key results support the predictions of private-information models. Three of these involve changes in the intraday volatility U-shape. The fourth is that opening trade causes mispricing's share in variance to fall.     

Is there cyclical bias in bank holding company risk ratings?

This paper examines whether bank holding company (BHC) risk ratings are asymmetrically assigned or biased over business cycles from 1986 to 2003. In a model of ratings determination which accounts for bank characteristics, financial market conditions, past supervisory information, and aggregate macro-economic factors, we find that bank exam ratings exhibit inter-temporal characteristics. First, exam ratings exhibit some evidence of examiner bias for several periods analyzed. When the business cycle turns, examiners sometime depart from standards that they set during the previous phases of the cycle. However, this bias is not widespread or systematic. Second, exam ratings exhibit some inertia. Our results suggest that examiners rate on the side of not changing (rather than upgrading or downgrading) an institution’s exam rating. Third, we find robust evidence of a secular trend towards more stringent examination BHC ratings standards over time.     

Is there “productivity paradox” in Chinese producer-service enterprises' OFDI?

As an important decision of enterprise internationalization, is there a similar phenomenon of “productivity paradox” in Chinese enterprises' overseas investment? We study this issue by using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms in the producer-service industry from 2007 to 2019. According to our empirical results, there is no “productivity paradox” phenomenon in the OFDI of producer-service enterprises in China. In other words, the productivity of enterprises is positively correlated with OFDI. After using the different variable measures and adopting IV estimation, this conclusion is still robust. Our research also finds that cost reduction effect, R&D improvement effect and industrial linkage effect are the three main influencing mechanisms. By analyzing the heterogeneity of dimensions such as the nature of enterprise ownership, technology intensity, cultural distance of investment destinations, and whether they belong to the “OBOR” (One Belt, One Road), we find that productivity has a more significant effect on OFDI in SOEs, technology-intensive enterprises and enterprises whose investment destinations belong to non-OBOR, and with closer cultural proximity. This paper provides implications for Chinese enterprises on how to improve their international competitiveness through OFDI.     

Early Movers Advantage? Evidence from Short Selling during After‐Hours on Earnings Announcement Days

We examine short sellers’ after‐hours trading (AHT) following quarterly earnings announcements released outside of the normal trading hours. Our innovation is to use the actual short trades immediately after the announcements. We find that on these earnings announcement days, there is significant shorting activity in AHT relative to shorting activity both during AHT on nonannouncements days and during regular trading sessions around announcements. Short sellers who trade after‐hours on announcement days earn an excess return of 0.82% and 1.40% during before‐market‐open (BMO) and after‐market‐close (AMC)sessions, respectively. The magnitude of these returns increases to 1.48 (3.92%) for BMO (AMC) earnings announcements with negative surprise. We find that the reactive short selling during AHT has information in predicting future returns. Short sellers’ trades have no predictive power if they wait for the market to open to trade during regular hours. In addition, we find that the weighted price contribution during AHT increases with an increase in after‐hours short selling. Overall, our results suggest that short sellers in AHT are informed. Our findings remain robust using alternative holding periods and after controlling for macroeconomic news announcements during BMO sessions.     

Is VIX an investor fear gauge in BRIC equity markets?

This study examines the intertemporal relationships between CBOE market volatility index (VIX) and stock market returns in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC), and between VIX and U.S. stock market returns, to uncover if VIX serves as an investor fear gauge in BRIC and U.S. markets. We conduct the VIX-returns analysis for the 1993–2007 period.Our results suggest a strong negative contemporaneous relation between daily changes (innovations) in VIX and U.S. stock market returns. This relation is stronger when VIX is higher and more volatile. A significant negative contemporaneous relation between VIX and equity returns also exists for China and Brazil during 1993–2007 and for India during 1993–1997. Similar to the U.S. market, the immediate negative relation between the Brazilian stock returns and VIX changes is much stronger when VIX is both high and more volatile. Our results also indicate a strong asymmetric relation between innovations in VIX and daily stock market returns in U.S., Brazil, and China, suggesting that VIX is more of a gauge of investor fear than investor positive sentiment. However, the asymmetric relationship between stock market returns and VIX is much weaker when VIX is large and more volatile. These results have potential implications for portfolio diversification and for stock market and option trading timing in the equity markets of Brazil, India, and China. Overall, our results indicate that VIX is not only an investor fear gauge for the U.S. stock market but also for the equity markets of China, Brazil, and India.     

Earnings Management? Erroneous Inferences Based on Earnings Frequency Distributions

A vast literature following Hayn [1995] and Burgstahler and Dichev [1997] attributed the so-called "discontinuities" in earnings distributions around zero to earnings management. Despite recent evidence that these discontinuities are likely caused by other factors, researchers and teachers continue to point to the shapes of these distributions as evidence of earnings management. We provide three sets of further evidence that these discontinuities are likely caused by factors other than earnings management: (1) we provide, as an example, a detailed analysis of the severe effects of sample selection in a recent study; this study erroneously concludes that the shape of an earnings distribution is evidence of earnings management, (2) we provide a simple explanation for the shape of the earnings distribution that is most often cited as evidence of earnings management; the relation between earnings and prices differs with the magnitude and the sign of earnings, and (3) we provide further examples that support the main point of our paper; evidence beyond the mere shape of a distribution must be brought to bear before researchers can draw conclusions regarding the presence/absence of earnings management.     

Time series momentum: Is it there?

Time series momentum (TSM) refers to the predictability of the past 12-month return on the next one-month return and is the focus of several recent influential studies. This paper shows that asset-by-asset time series regressions reveal little evidence of TSM, both in- and out-of-sample. While the t-statistic in a pooled regression appears large, it is not statistically reliable as it is less than the critical values of parametric and nonparametric bootstraps. From an investment perspective, the TSM strategy is profitable, but its performance is virtually the same as that of a similar strategy that is based on historical sample mean and does not require predictability. Overall, the evidence on TSM is weak, particularly for the large cross section of assets.