The decision to ‘bid for business’: Municipal behavior in granting property tax abatements

We investigate the timing of local economic development incentive offers by estimating duration models of the time to adoption of the first manufacturing property tax abatement offered by a municipal government. The effects of municipal characteristics, incentive prevalence measures, and fiscal stress indicators on the duration of non-abatement regimes are investigated using data for 112 municipalities in metropolitan Detroit during 1974–1992. Median household income and the local property tax price of local public services are found to affect the hazard rates. Most importantly, there is evidence of positive duration dependence, or an emulation effect, with first-time abatement offers.     

Housing appreciation, mortgage interest rates, and homeowner mobility

This paper presents a model of the optimal timing of tradeup, which considers consumption and investment motives of homeownership. Households determine the optimal timing of trading up so as to maximize their intertemporal utility of both housing and nonhousing consumption. First we consider current homeowners, who already own a house and expect that they trade up to a more valuable house at some point in the future. Housing appreciation tends to induce an earlier optimal timing of trading up. Moreover, housing appreciation makes current homeowners better off in terms of welfare. However, current homeowners suffer from a rise in mortgage interest rates. Second, we consider first-time home buyers, who have decided to buy a house and expect to trade up to a more valuable house in the future. Their initial housing consumption is determined by an initial downpayment constraint. In this case, the effect of housing appreciation on the optimal timing of trading up is ambiguous and, unlike current homeowners, first-time home buyers suffer from housing appreciation. Moreover, as current homeowners, first-time home buyers suffer from a rise in mortgage interest rates. Most of the theoretical analytic results are ambiguous. Accordingly, we perform numerical simulations based on the theoretical model in order to determine the most likely comparative effects for a stylized set of parameters.As is apparent, the model captures the recent observations on homewner mobility and suggests that macroeconomic variables such as housing appreciation and mortgage interest rates effect the optimal timing of trading up and homeowner's welfare. Nevertheless, the model in this paper has several shortcomings, which should be the subject of future research. First, transaction costs are ignored. If transaction costs are incorporated, the lock-in effect from a rise in mortgage interest rates is well explained. However, the general analysis above is not altered in any essential way. Second, multiple moves are not considered in this model. Therefore, we concentrate on the timing of one tradeup as opposed to the timing and frequency of trading up. In a different vein, it would be interesting to test empirically the importance of the effects of macroeconomic variables on trading up by using microdata.     

Alternative Approaches to Multilevel Modelling of Survey Non‐Contact and Refusal

We review three alternative approaches to modelling survey non‐contact and refusal: multinomial, sequential, and sample selection (bivariate probit) models. We then propose a multilevel extension of the sample selection model to allow for both interviewer effects and dependency between non‐contact and refusal rates at the household and interviewer level. All methods are applied and compared in an analysis of household non‐response in the United Kingdom, using a data set with unusually rich information on both respondents and non‐respondents from six major surveys. After controlling for household characteristics, there is little evidence of residual correlation between the unobserved characteristics affecting non‐contact and refusal propensities at either the household or the interviewer level. We also find that the estimated coefficients of the multinomial and sequential models are surprisingly similar, which further investigation via a simulation study suggests is due to non‐contact and refusal having largely different predictors.     

Initial Financial Conditions,Unobserved Heterogeneity and the Survival of Nascent Canadian Manufacturing Firms

The firm dynamics literature has stressed productivity, size, and age effects in firm duration. Understanding the implications of financial state has largely been unexplored because of the lack of quality data on private entrant firms. This paper investigates the role of start‐up financial conditions (debt‐to‐asset ratio) on the duration of entrant manufacturing firms using a unique administrative firm‐level database called T2LEAP. The debt‐to‐asset ratio has an economically and statistically significant effect on firm hazard after controlling for usual covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Further, a non‐monotonic relationship between firm hazard and leverage appears. Firm hazard varies positively with leverage for firms in the top two leverage quintiles, whereas hazard rates fall with leverage in the lower quintiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hidden Talents: Entrepreneurship and Pareto-Improving Private Information

Two entrepreneurs, each privately informed about her own talent, simultaneously and noncooperatively choose their efforts in producing a new product. Product quality depends on both entrepreneurs' talents and efforts, but is unobservable by potential buyers prior to purchase; however, buyers can observe the entrepreneurs' individual efforts. Because the entrepreneurs share the payoff, each is tempted to shirk. However, the need to signal quality to potential buyers serves as a credible commitment to provide greater effort. Thus, the "problem" of adverse selection mitigates the problem of moral hazard, so that a new venture can perform better than the corresponding mature market.     

Modelling employment durations of NHL head coaches: turnover and post‐succession performance

Match‐level National Hockey League (NHL) data are used to identify factors likely to trigger the departure of a team's coach, and to measure the short‐term impact on subsequent match results. There is a statistically significant link between individual match results and the job departure hazard for up to 15 games prior to the point of departure. The hazard depends on the team's current standing within its conference relative to a pre‐season forecast, recent performance in the Stanley Cup, the coach's age and previous employment with his present team as a player. After controlling for a mean‐reversion effect, teams that changed their coach within‐season are found to perform worse subsequently than those that did not, but the negative effect is short‐lived. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Higher interest rates should not unduly faze consumers

• ? Though the MPC has signalled a more aggressive pace of interest hikes than previously anticipated, we still expect the impact on the consumer sector in aggregate to be modest. We estimate that household debt servicing costs will rise from the current level of 4.1% of household income to 5.0% by the end of 2019. This would still be only a little over half the pre‐crisis peak.
• ? We expect the MPC to hike interest rates twice in both 2018 and 2019, taking Bank Rate to 1.5% by the end of next year. Higher interest rates will impact on consumer spending by increasing debt servicing costs and reducing the attractiveness of credit (including mortgages), but savers will benefit from higher returns on their deposits.
• ? Mortgages account for 77% of loans to UK households and full pass through of a 100bp rise in Bank Rate to variable rate loans, implying an increase from 2.78% to 3.78%, would add £100 a month to the cost of servicing an average mortgage. But only two‐fifths of borrowers have a variable rate deal, so for many homeowners the adjustment to higher interest rates will not be immediate. And the proportion of houses which are owned via a mortgage has fallen over the past decade, suggesting that the household sector as a whole will be less sensitive to higher mortgage interest rates.
• ? Historically the relationship between Bank Rate and interest rates on unsecured lending has been weak and rates on credit cards and personal loans have not yet risen following November's rate hike. The link to deposit rates has been stronger and higher returns on savings will mitigate some of the damage to household income from higher debt servicing costs, although uneven distribution of debt and savings means that there will be winners and losers at a more disaggregated level.
• ? We have used the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model to run a counterfactual scenario where Bank Rate is kept at 0.5% throughout 2018 and 2019. The results suggest that the pace of rate hikes assumed in our baseline forecast would reduce the level of consumer spending by 0.2 percentage points by the end of 2019.

     

Structural break threshold VARs for predicting US recessions using the spread

This paper proposes a model to predict recessions that accounts for non‐linearity and a structural break when the spread between long‐ and short‐term interest rates is the leading indicator. Estimation and model selection procedures allow us to estimate and identify time‐varying non‐linearity in a VAR. The structural break threshold VAR (SBTVAR) predicts better the timing of recessions than models with constant threshold or with only a break. Using real‐time data, the SBTVAR with spread as leading indicator is able to anticipate correctly the timing of the 2001 recession. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Individual risk attitudes and the composition of financial portfolios: Evidence from German household portfolios

This paper explores the relationship between the self-declared risk aversion of private investors and their propensity to hold incomplete portfolios of financial assets. The analysis is based on household survey data from the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP) that provides a reliable measure of individual attitudes toward financial risk. Our findings suggest that more risk averse households tend to hold incomplete portfolios consisting mainly of a few risk-free assets. We also find that the propensity to acquire additional assets is highly dependent on whether liquidity and safety needs are met.     

Delegation in first‐price all‐pay auctions

In a first‐price all‐pay auction buyers have an incentive to delegate the bidding to agents and to provide these agents with incentives to make bids that differ from the bids the buyers would like to make. Both buyers are better off in this strictly non‐cooperative delegation equilibrium and the delegation contracts are asymmetric, even if the buyers and the auction are perfectly symmetric. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Organizational performance and managerial turnover

Involuntary and voluntary managerial job‐termination hazard functions are estimated for English professional soccer for the period 1972–1997. A novel feature is the use of match‐level data, which reveals aspects of the hazard otherwise concealed by estimation using annual data. Short‐term fluctuations in performance strongly influence the involuntary termination hazard. The latter is also heavily dependent on the team's current league position relative to its position when the manager took charge, and on the win ratio over the entire spell. Managerial human capital attributes are found to have a greater influence on the voluntary rather than on the involuntary termination hazard. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geographic poverty traps? A micro model of consumption growth in rural China

How important are neighbourhood endowments of physical and human capital in explaining diverging fortunes over time for otherwise identical households in a developing rural economy? To answer this question we develop an estimable micro model of consumption growth allowing for constraints on factor mobility and externalities, whereby geographic capital can influence the productivity of a household's own capital. Our statistical test has considerable power in detecting geographic effects given that we control for latent heterogeneity in measured consumption growth rates at the micro level. We find robust evidence of geographic poverty traps in farm‐household panel data from post‐reform rural China. Our results strengthen the equity and efficiency case for public investment in lagging poor areas in this setting. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Revisiting the Curvilinear Relation Between Job Insecurity and Work Withdrawal: The Moderating Role of Achievement Orientation and Risk Aversion

Although speculation of the curvilinear relations between job insecurity and job‐related behaviors is theoretically appealing, the empirical evidence has been sparse. The purpose of this study was to contribute to the literature on job insecurity and work withdrawal behaviors by reexamining their curvilinear relation, and the effects of achievement orientation and propensity for risk aversion on this U‐shaped relationship. Using samples with both secure and insecure job situations, we hypothesized that job insecurity could have both positive and negative effects on work withdrawal simultaneously; however, one of these effects could dominate the other at different levels of job insecurity. That is, a U shape would best describe such a relationship, since a moderate level of job insecurity would result in the lowest level of work withdrawal. Furthermore, we hypothesized that achievement orientation and propensity for risk aversion moderates this relationship in such a way that the curvilinear relationship is weaker (flattened curve) when the individual's achievement orientation is high, and that the curvilinear relationship is stronger (steep curve) when the individual's propensity for risk aversion is high. Results show that these hypotheses were supported; implications and limitations of the study are discussed. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The equity implications of e‐commerce: A note

We develop a simple model with heterogeneous agents and search frictions to study how increases in matching intensity between buyers and retailers as a result of e‐commerce determine the level of income inequality among retailers. Our findings indicate that a reduction in search frictions leads to higher inequality and induces buyers to purchase goods and services only from specialized retailers.     

Precautionary motives and portfolio decisions

This paper studies the empirical relevance of precautionary and other motives for household portfolio behaviour using recent panel data from the Netherlands. Dutch households' portfolios exhibit low degrees of risk taking and diversification. It is possible that this is the outcome of a rational, precautionary response to unavoidable exposure to background risk (stemming from the labour market or health conditions, etc.). We consider as alternative explanations liquidity needs and habits. The endogenous variable is the fraction of clearly safe in total financial assets at the household level. Parametric and semi‐parametric censored regression models for pooled cross‐sections and random and fixed effects models for panel data show that both heteroscedasticity and unobserved heterogeneity are of major importance in the data. With subjective indicators of income uncertainty we find a limited role for precautionary motives. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards a better understanding of the financial donor: an examination of donor behaviour in terms of value structure and demographics

While marketing academics have long advocated the application of marketing principles by not-for-profit organisations, a review of the literature suggests that attempts to segment financial donors have primarily concentrated on demographic variables. Recently, there have been moves to gain a better understanding of more psychographic influences on individuals' propensity to contribute to charities. It is proposed that the concept of values offers potential for enhancing this understanding. Findings confirm some earlier studies in that demographics such as age, education and household income significantly discriminate between heavy and light donors. Additionally, ten of the initial 56 values tested contribute to the overall discriminant model obtained. The profiles obtained suggest that distinct promotional strategies, with emphasis on different reasons for donating, may appeal to the two groups. Copyright © 1999 Henry Stewart Publications     

Sooner or Later? – Paradoxical Investment Effects of Capital Gains Taxation under Simultaneous Investment and Abandonment Flexibility

This paper analyzes the impact of capital gains taxation on investment timing decisions for risky investment projects with entry and exit flexibility under differential tax rates for ordinary income and capital gains. We investigate whether capital gains taxation influences immediate and delayed investments asymmetrically, given the optimal abandonment decision. If capital gains taxation induces a lock-in effect, this effect is anticipated in the investment timing decision. In contrast to prior research, our numerical simulations show that this lock-in effect of capital gains taxation can induce normal as well as paradoxical effects on investment timing under simultaneous entry and exit flexibility. A paradoxical timing effect, i.e., investment accelerated by capital gains taxation, especially emerges for high liquidation proceeds or, more conservative tax accounting, low interest rates, and low volatilities. In these cases, capital gains taxation reduces the value of the option to invest and hereby increases the propensity to invest immediately. As a second paradoxical tax effect, capital gains taxation may favor delayed real investment over financial investment. Facing these results, tax legislators should not use capital gains taxation as a short-term tax policy instrument to influence investors' timing decisions.     

Can the Timing of Negotiations Impact the Consequences of Mergers?

This paper uses a theoretical model to examine whether variation in the timing of negotiations between buyers and sellers can alter the effects of mergers between sellers. The model shows that mergers between horizontally overlapping firms lead to price increases regardless of how negotiations take place. In contrast, mergers between firms in different markets can only lead to higher compensation for the combined firm when negotiations occur sequentially. However, any price effects from out‐of‐market mergers stem from a mechanical redistribution of existing market power and not from a loss in competition. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Intertemporal tenure choices

An intertemporal model of household tenure choice is estimated using data from the Michigan Panel Survey on Income Dynamics. Unlike empirical studies that focus on household tenure differences at any point in time, this analysis considers choice patterns over a 4-year period. The estimation results often indicate substantial leads, lags, and household condition duration effects on the structure of tenure status choices and the timing of their change. An implication of these findings is that inferences based on analyses of tenure choice at one particular point in time often are misleading.