The performance of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust tests: a Monte Carlo study with an application to the three‐factor Fama–French asset‐pricing model

This paper illustrates the pitfalls of the conventional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) Wald test and the advantages of new HAR tests developed by Kiefer and Vogelsang in 2005 and by Phillips, Sun and Jin in 2003 and 2006. The illustrations use the 1993 Fama–French three‐factor model. The null that the intercepts are zero is tested for 5‐year, 10‐year and longer sub‐periods. The conventional HAR test with asymptotic P‐values rejects the null for most 5‐year and 10‐year sub‐periods. By contrast, the null is not rejected by the new HAR tests. This conflict is explained by showing that inferences based on the conventional HAR test are misleading for the sample sizes used in this application. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to inference in multiple‐equation Markov‐switching models

Vector autoregressions with Markov‐switching parameters (MS‐VARs) offer substantial gains in data fit over VARs with constant parameters. However, Bayesian inference for MS‐VARs has remained challenging, impeding their uptake for empirical applications. We show that sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimators can accurately estimate MS‐VAR posteriors. Relative to multi‐step, model‐specific MCMC routines, SMC has the advantages of generality, parallelizability, and freedom from reliance on particular analytical relationships between prior and likelihood. We use SMC's flexibility to demonstrate that model selection among MS‐VARs can be highly sensitive to the choice of prior.     

Land of addicts? an empirical investigation of habit‐based asset pricing models

This paper studies the ability of a general class of habit‐based asset pricing models to match the conditional moment restrictions implied by asset pricing theory. We treat the functional form of the habit as unknown, and estimate it along with the rest of the model's finite dimensional parameters. Using quarterly data on consumption growth, assets returns and instruments, our empirical results indicate that the estimated habit function is nonlinear, that habit formation is better described as internal rather than external, and the estimated time‐preference parameter and the power utility parameter are sensible. In addition, the estimated habit function generates a positive stochastic discount factor (SDF) proxy and performs well in explaining cross‐sectional stock return data. We find that an internal habit SDF proxy can explain a cross‐section of size and book‐market sorted portfolio equity returns better than (i) the Fama and French ( 1993 ) three‐factor model, (ii) the Lettau and Ludvigson ( 2001b ) scaled consumption CAPM model, (iii) an external habit SDF proxy, (iv) the classic CAPM, and (v) the classic consumption CAPM. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Panel Unit‐root Tests for Cross‐sectionally Correlated Panels: A Monte Carlo Comparison*

This paper deals with the finite‐sample performance of a set of unit‐root tests for cross‐correlated panels. Most of the available macroeconomic time series cover short time periods. The lack of information, in terms of time observations, implies that univariate tests are not powerful enough to reject the null of a unit‐root while panel tests, by exploiting the large number of cross‐sectional units, have been shown to be a promising way of increasing the power of unit‐root tests. We investigate the finite sample properties of recently proposed panel unit‐root tests for cross‐sectionally correlated panels. Specifically, the size and power of Choi's [Econometric Theory and Practice: Frontiers of Analysis and Applied Research: Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)], Bai and Ng's [Econometrica (2004), Vol. 72, p. 1127], Moon and Perron's [Journal of Econometrics (2004), Vol. 122, p. 81], and Phillips and Sul's [Econometrics Journal (2003), Vol. 6, p. 217] tests are analysed by a Monte Carlo simulation study. In synthesis, Moon and Perron's tests show good size and power for different values of T and N, and model specifications. Focusing on Bai and Ng's procedure, the simulation study highlights that the pooled Dickey–Fuller generalized least squares test provides higher power than the pooled augmented Dickey–Fuller test for the analysis of non‐stationary properties of the idiosyncratic components. Choi's tests are strongly oversized when the common factor influences the cross‐sectional units heterogeneously.     

Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields

When Japanese short-term bond yields were near their zero bound, yields on long-term bonds showed substantial fluctuation, and there was a strong positive relationship between the level of interest rates and yield volatilities/risk premiums. We explore whether several families of dynamic term structure models that enforce a zero lower bound on short rates imply conditional distributions of Japanese bond yields consistent with these patterns. Multi-factor “shadow-rate” and quadratic-Gaussian models, evaluated at their maximum likelihood estimates, capture many features of the data. Furthermore, model-implied risk premiums track realized excess returns during extended periods of near-zero short rates. In contrast, the conditional distributions implied by non-negative affine models do not match their sample counterparts, and standard Gaussian affine models generate implausibly large negative risk premiums.     

Evaluating the dynamic employment effects of training programs in East Germany using conditional difference‐in‐differences

This study analyzes the employment effects of training in East Germany. We propose and apply an extension of the widely used conditional difference‐in‐differences estimator. Focusing on transition rates between nonemployment and employment, we take into account that employment is a state‐ and duration‐dependent process. Our results show that using transition rates is more informative than using unconditional employment rates as commonly done in the literature. Moreover, the results indicate that due to the labor market turbulence during the East German transformation process the focus on labor market dynamics is important. Training as a first participation in a program of Active Labor Market Policies shows zero to positive effects both on re‐employment probabilities and on probabilities of remaining employed with notable variation over the different start dates of the program. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pitfalls in the estimation of a cost function that ignores allocative inefficiency: A Monte Carlo analysis

In the stochastic frontier literature, it is a widely held view that allocative inefficiency can be lumped together with technical inefficiency in the estimation of cost frontiers. Therefore, a one-sided error term in the cost function is believed to capture the cost of overall (technical plus allocative) inefficiency. In this paper we challenge that view through a detailed Monte Carlo investigation. The results show that failure to include the cost of allocative inefficiency explicitly in the cost function biases the estimates of: (i) the cost function parameters, (ii) returns to scale, (iii) input price elasticities, and (iv) cost-inefficiency.     

Inside the queue:: hypercongestion and road pricing in a continuous time–continuous place model of traffic congestion

This paper develops a continuous-time–continuous-place dynamic economic model of traffic congestion, based on car-following theory. The model integrates two archetype congestion technologies used in the economics literature: ‘static flow congestion’ and ‘dynamic bottleneck congestion.’ With endogenous departure times and a bottleneck along the route, ‘hypercongestion’ arises as a dynamic equilibrium phenomenon on the upstream road segment. Congestion tolls based on an intuitive dynamic and space-varying generalization of the standard Pigouvian tax rule can hardly be improved upon. A naïve application of a toll schedule based on Vickrey's bottleneck model performs much worse and reduces welfare in the numerical model.     

Leadership preferences of a generation Y cohort: A mixed‐methods investigation

Presently there are four generational cohorts in the workplace. Born from 1977 to 1997, the youngest cohort group, Generation Y, has 81 million members, of whom over 29 million are already in the workplace. The importance of leader‐subordinate relationships in the workplace has been confirmed. In recognizing this, leaders must identify and adapt to the era‐shaped needs of employees, who cannot fully participate in organizational life if their most urgent needs are not being met. The goal of this study was to determine leadership preferences of a Gen Y cohort as a means to enhance workplace relationships in the 21st‐century organization. A sequential, mixed‐methods study was employed to explore leadership preferences of a Gen Y cohort. Initially, focus‐group interviews were used to generate leadership themes. Based on these themes, an instrument was designed, and Gen Y business students from three higher education institutions were surveyed. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to test the themes. Five leadership themes emerged in the focus groups and were confirmed through CFA.     

Realising the future: forecasting with high‐frequency‐based volatility (HEAVY) models

This paper studies in some detail a class of high‐frequency‐based volatility (HEAVY) models. These models are direct models of daily asset return volatility based on realised measures constructed from high‐frequency data. Our analysis identifies that the models have momentum and mean reversion effects, and that they adjust quickly to structural breaks in the level of the volatility process. We study how to estimate the models and how they perform through the credit crunch, comparing their fit to more traditional GARCH models. We analyse a model‐based bootstrap which allows us to estimate the entire predictive distribution of returns. We also provide an analysis of missing data in the context of these models. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Beyond the Anglo‐Saxon and North European models: social partnership in a Greek textiles company

Much of the literature examining social partnership focuses on either Anglo‐Saxon or North European countries, differentiating between liberal market economies (LMEs) and coordinated market economies (CMEs). These studies argue, quite correctly, that the institutional forces shaping partnership in the two types of economy differ markedly, with the consequence that partnership takes somewhat different forms at the workplace. By contrast, there is only limited research on social partnership in Mediterranean economies—such as Greece—even though there are strong reasons to suggest it may be quite different from both LMEs and CMEs because of relatively recent military influence at state level and less well‐developed systems of industrial relations at organisational level. This article examines the forces operating both at national and at local level that facilitate or hinder the development of social partnership. It is based on the results of interviews with government, industry and union officials and a case study of partnership in a textiles company in northern Greece. It concludes that institutional forces provided workers with more protection than they would have achieved in an LME but that ultimately competitive pressures and a lack of effective workplace representation limited the degree to which the state can influence the processes and outcomes of social partnership at local level.     

Spatial Imaginaries of the Dutch–German–Belgian Borderlands: A Multidimensional Analysis of Cross‐Border Regional Governance

Parallel to the proliferation of cross‐border regional cooperation initiatives in the European Union, increasing scholarly attention has been given to conceptualizing cross‐border governance in recent decades. In line with the recognition that cross‐border regions have not undermined the significance of nation‐state spaces but have added to their complexity, conceptual frameworks of analysis have become more and more refined. However, studies still tend to be framed in one spatial grammar, that of territory, scale or network, and fail to consider the ways in which these different dimensions become interlocked. The aim of this article is to address this lack by developing a multidimensional perspective, in order to finally circumvent state‐centric thinking on cross‐border regions and to offer a more nuanced account of whether and how new imaginaries of spatial governance institutionalize. These arguments are demonstrated by means of a case study of cross‐border regional governance in the Dutch–German–Belgian borderlands.     

Evaluating the success in international sourcing of information technology projects: The need for a relational client‐vendor approach

This article investigates the differences across and the need to consider both the client and vendor perspective in evaluating international sourcing (offshoring) success and highlights the need for incorporating relational factors into the success assessment rather than focusing solely on financial or operational outcomes (e.g., projects delivered on time, within budgeted costs). We take an expanded view of project success (using relational/process dimensions) and provide insight into how client and vendor firms evaluate success differently across relational dimensions and how relational factors play a key role in achieving success. Based on the findings, propositions are presented to guide future offshoring success research.     

Rent extraction,principal–agent relationships,and pricing strategies: vendor licensing during the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta

Two‐part pricing, price‐discrimination, rent creation and extraction, principal–agent theory, and public choice perspectives on public bureaucracies are used to interpret a vendor‐license marketing arrangement and controversy arising out of the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta, GA. Containing features predicted by principal–agency theory, Atlanta's arrangement with its marketing agent was a response to the behavior of public bureaucracies and a low cost method of converting visitors' consumer surplus to rent, which could be extracted by the marketing agent and then by Atlanta. Atlanta's incentive to enforce vendor property rights was influenced by the nature of the game between Atlanta and prospective vendors. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.