如何提高预测精度：作为一种过程的研究

预测未来很复杂,预测精度无疑是关键性的评价因素。为此,本文以提高精度为主线,试图通过对预测全过程的扫描,发现一些可能会带来预测理论突破的环节。本文从数据问题、时间影响、序列类型、方法选择、检验和校正等环节系统地分析了提高预测精度的一些方法或提出一些思路,其中有的是经验性的,有的则具有理论上的价值。     

How to implement the bootstrap in static or stable dynamic regression models: test statistic versus confidence region approach

By combining two alternative formulations of a test statistic with two alternative resampling schemes we obtain four different bootstrap tests. In the context of static linear regression models two of these are shown to have serious size and power problems, whereas the remaining two are adequate and in fact equivalent. The equivalence between the two valid implementations is shown to break down in dynamic regression models. Then, the procedure based on the test statistic approach performs best, at least in the AR(1)-model. Similar finite-sample phenomena are illustrated in the ARMA(1,1)-model through a small-scale Monte Carlo study and an empirical example.     

怎样才能成为百万富翁

当提到百万富翁，你会怎样想象他们呢？就像那些珠光宝气的华尔街的银行家们一样，有私人飞机、大量收藏艺术品、多辆轿车、整天花天酒地、奢侈而颓废地过着豪华而梦幻般的生活。     

亿万富翁是如何崛起的

冰王图德的崛起 几乎一直到19世纪中叶,把冰用于夏日消暑还是一种难得的奢侈享受.有史以来,饮食始终受到季节的限制.一般来说,新鲜的水果和蔬菜只有在其刚成熟时才能吃到,鲜肉也是现宰现吃,牛奶则是从奶牛身上随挤随喝.在使用冷冻法之前的时代,若要把牛奶、肉类、水果等食品来储存,那得把所有食物都加上香料,借以掩盖陈腐气味.     

How to value a life

The tradeoff between money and small risks of death is the value of statistical life (VSL), which has become the standard for assessing the benefits of risk and environmental regulations. Labor market estimates of the VSL average about $7 million. This valuation amount rises with age and then declines, closely tracking the pattern of consumption over the life cycle. The VSL for those at age 60 is higher than for people in their 20s. Application of this methodology to assess the mortality costs to smokers indicates a personal mortality cost on the order of $200 per pack for men and $100 for women using a 3% discount rate, but based on smokers’ rates of time preference the costs are reduced by about an order of magnitude.

配送中心建设的若干问题研究

从配送中心的布局与选址、配送中心的规模设计、配送中心设施的建设、配送中心信息系统的设计、配送中心政策环境的建设等方面.对配送中心的合理建设进行了深入的研究与探讨。     

如何创造具有较强识别性的品牌

品牌是产品的内在质量和外部特征的综合反映，是沟通消费者与企业的桥梁，凝聚着企业的信誉和商誉。好的品牌是企业巨大的无形资产，可口可乐一总裁总宣称：即使全世界可口可乐工厂一夜之间全被大火烧毁，     

无线射频识别技术中间件设计分析

在总结RFID技术应用前景的基础上,介绍了RFID中间件的概念和作用,分析了中间件的特点,设计了中间件的架构。RFID中间件包含硬件接口、信息处理、业务管理、应用系统接口等模块,详细分析了每一模块的功能和作用。     

如何开展案例教学——哈佛大学商学院琳达教授对新教师利用案例教学的几点忠告

案例分析是管理教育中一种十分有效的教学方法,案例教学的成功取决于教师与学生的共同努力,而要熟练地驾驭和运用案例教学方法是一个比较复杂的过程.作为利用案例教学的新教师应做好几方面工作:开课前的筹备工作、课堂案例讨论的组织工作以及课后的交流等.     

How to improve a technology evaluation model: A data-driven approach

Academic research suggests a number of technology evaluation models. To ensure effective use, models need to be improved in accordance with changing internal and external environments. However, a majority of previous studies focus on model development, while a few emphasize their implementation or improvement. To fill this research gap, this study suggests a systematic approach to examining the validity of technology evaluation models and improving them. We consider three propositions as criteria for improvement: 1) the coherence of the evaluation results with the evaluation purpose, 2) the appropriateness of the evaluation methods, and 3) the concreteness of the evaluation model. Rather than using expert opinions, this study takes a data-driven approach, wherein we analyze actual evaluation results and determine whether the model produces the intended results. A case study of 291 technology evaluation results, all made by the South Korean government in support of technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, is conducted to verify the suggested approach's applicability. This is one of the few studies to address issues regarding improvements to a technology evaluation model. Its approach can help to develop and continuously improve a valid technology evaluation model, thus leading to more effective practice.     

How to reduce your inventory: a real world case study

This case study describes the use of a performance analysis system at the Safety Products Division of Mine Safety Appliances Company, which contributed to the reduction of excess inventories by more than $8,000,000 during the first two years of implementation.     

Dividends and leverage: How to optimally exploit a non-renewable investment

In this paper we model the situation where a non-renewable investment is given, for instance a resource reservoir, and show how to optimally trade-off between dividends and leverage, in order to maximize a performance indicator for shareholders, up to the bankruptcy time. We then study the way market risk (the volatility of the market price of the resource) impacts the optimal policies and the default risk of the company. The moments when the policies are rebalanced are analyzed and we give a measure of the agency costs which appear between the shareholders and the debt-holders.