关于广州城镇就业问题的思考

一、广州就业的现状及问题。总体来看，目前广州的就业形势还是比较严峻的。2001年1至7月，广州城镇登记失业人员比上年末增加2．61万人，达10．61万人，城镇登记失业率为3．88％，超过年初确定控制在3．5%，的目标。2002年的1—3季度广州地区城镇地区登记失业人员总数为164246人，其中本期增加失业人员99610人；本期共实现75947名登记失业人员就业，就业率为46．2％。本期尚有城镇登记失业人员80774人，失业率为3．02％预计年底累计失业人员将达到20万。造成这种状况的主要原因，一方面是因为2000年广州市在国有企业改革的实质性攻坚阶段，加大了对国有企业的转制、减员、关闭、破产的力度，全市近10万职工被直接分流到社会上；另一方面，由于本年度城市化进程的推进，农工商系统的2．5万原为农业户口的人员转为城镇居民，其中约1万人进入了失业登记者行列。     

浅谈我国就业状况与失业保障

浅谈我国就业状况与失业保障冯煜一、我国目前的就业状况及其存在的问题（一）劳动力供给大于需求的矛盾依然存在，就业形势严峻１、新增劳动力数额仍然很大。劳动部门预计，“九五”期间城镇新增劳动力５４００万人，预计仅能安排３８００万人，争取安排４１００万人，“...     

中国城镇失业率的重新估计

在中国经济转型的后期，城镇失业下岗问题变得越来越突出，引起了全社会的普遍关注(见《2002年：中国就业报告》)。对失业人员的正确界定与甄别无疑是研究失业问题的起点。在此基础上，才能准确计算出失业人员规模以及相应的失业率，也才能把握失业人员的各项特征以及行为模式，从而为降低失业率提供有针对性的措施。中国官方的失业统计指标(“城镇登记失业人员”和“城镇登记失业     

昆明市城镇失业人员的调查分析及再就业对策建议

本文基于2005年上半年昆明市劳动部门展开的一次失业及再就业现状抽样问卷调查，在简要阐述了调查问卷的设计与实地调查效度的基础上对该市城镇失业人员调查问卷进行了深入的统计分析，由此提出了：①积极探索和实施再就业培训援助的新路径；②加大就业资金的投入以构建建立“促进就业型”失业保险制度；③尽快完善劳动力市场和鼓励社区就业；④鼓励个人创业以开辟就业门路；⑤开发公益性岗位以救助犬龄城镇失业人员等五条促进城镇失业人员再就业的对策建议。     

影响我国劳动力就业状况的诸因素分析

我国失业人口激增、就业压力越来越大，对大量的失业现象做出科学的解释，是处理就业问题的关键。本文通过对经济增长、产业结构调整、教育活动、劳动力流动等几个影响就业的因素加以分析研究，以期对影响我国劳动力就业状况有一个客观全面的了解。     

试论中国城乡隐性失业

试论中国城乡隐性失业顾立新在我国社会主义有计划的市场经济下，现阶段的失业，主要表现为隐性失业。１９９２年末，全国城镇公开失业率为２．３％，城乡隐性失业率则高达２１％①。消化庞大的隐性失业大军成为今后深化劳动体制改革，发展经济最紧迫、最棘手的现实问题。...     

失业:一个问题的多面观察

失业：一个问题的多面观察姚远随着部分国有企业经营不善而宣布破产，失业和下岗已成为经济生活中的一个热点话题。国家统计局最新公布的１９９７年末全国城镇登记失业率为３．１％，由于目前社会保障制度很不完善，存在大量未登记失业人员，所以有专家认为当前我国真实失...     

对我国劳动力就业与再就业问题的若干思考

<正> 一、我国劳动力就业与再就业面临的困难 我国有13亿人口,劳动力的供给相对于有限的物质资源几乎无穷大,并且随着经济体制改革的深入和产业结构调整,就业与再就业问题显得更加困难。 1、劳动力供需矛盾日益尖锐。据测算:“十五”期间每年城乡新生劳动力将升至峰值,加上现有城镇下岗职工和就业转失业人员,每年城镇需要安排就业的达到2200至2300万人,按经济增长速度在7％左右计算,在现有经济结构状况下,每年新增就业岗位700至800万个,形成2200至230万下岗失业人员和新成长劳动力竞争700至800万个工作岗位的局面,年度就业岗位缺口在1400至1500万个左右,劳动力供大与求的     

对我国当前城镇失业问题的几点深入思考

对我国当前城镇失业问题的几点深入思考●赵建国一、对当前我国城镇实际失业情况的再认识及失业指标的修正失业是指有劳动能力的人而未从事工作的情况。［１］但长期以来，由于受意识形态因素的影响，我国一直不提失业，而用待业、下岗、放假等术语来代替失业。衡量失业的...     

辽宁经济振兴中城镇就业问题与对策

结合辽宁情况,从多个角度全面、深入剖析了辽宁经济振兴中城镇失业的致因,并从劳动力资源开发、劳动力自由流动和资源有效配置以及挖掘就业潜能、提高经济对就业吸纳能力等角度,提出了促进经济振兴、解决城镇就业的一系列对策建议。     

Effects of U.S. Banking Deregulation on Unemployment Dynamics

I use state-level banking deregulation in the U.S. to study the causal impact of credit expansion on unemployment through its effects on the average monthly job-finding and job-losing rates. State-level analysis shows that deregulation increased the average job-finding rate and decreased the job-losing rate, and thus led to a lower unemployment rate. I also find that deregulation decreased the average unemployment duration. Extending the analysis to industry-state level, I find that the impact of deregulation on the job-finding rate is positive, but does not show any pattern across industries with respect to their needs for external finance. However, deregulation reduced the average job-losing rate, and the reduction monotonically increases with industries’ dependence on external finance.     

Labor market dynamics over the business cycle: evidence from Markov switching models

This paper explores the evolution of the U.S. labor market across the business cycle and specifically the relationship between the unemployment rate and the average duration of unemployment. Labor market recoveries have long been thought of as lagging recoveries in broad economic activity. In particular, the unemployment rate peaks several months after official business cycle troughs and the average duration of unemployment lags further behind. Using estimates from Markov switching models of the unemployment rate, average duration of unemployment, jobless claims, and the exhaustion rate of regular unemployment insurance, this paper dates contractionary and expansionary phases of various aspects of the labor market and their relationship to the official phases of the business cycle. Evidence from these models suggests that inflows into unemployment recover almost contemporaneously with broad economic activity, while outflows recover almost a year after the end of official recessions. The differential timing in the recoveries of unemployment inflows and outflows, which is not a characteristic of most macro models of the labor market, accounts for the observed pattern between the unemployment rate and average duration of unemployment. Finally, when comparing the phases of the labor market to periods where Congress extends unemployment insurance benefits, it appears that policymakers target periods where the job finding rate is low, rather than periods where the stock of unemployed workers is high.     

Minimum wages and youth unemployment

This paper constructs a labor search model to explore the effects of minimum wages on youth unemployment. To capture the gradual decline in unemployment for young workers as they age, the standard search model is extended so that workers gain experience when employed. Experienced workers have higher average productivity and lower job finding and separation rates that match wage and worker flow data. In this environment, minimum wages can have large effects on unemployment because they interact with a worker's ability to gain job experience. The increase in minimum wages between 2007 and 2009 can account for a 0.8 percentage point increase in the steady state unemployment rate and a 2.8 percentage point increase in unemployment for 15–24 year old workers in the model parameterized to simulate outcomes of high school educated workers. Minimum wages can also help explain the high rates of youth unemployment in France compared to the United States.     

经济新常态下就业困难群体失业趋势研究*

本文探讨了宏观经济运行新特征对就业困难群体失业的影响。研究发现城镇失业与平均工资显著正相关,与财政支出、一年期贷款利率和平均受教育年限显著负相关,与经济增长率和全要素生产率等无显著相关性。“4050”人员、刚毕业大学生和青年农民工是三类重点困难群体,失业趋势呈现长期失业加重、失业转就业难度增大和短期失业淤积。本文建议将“就业困难群体就业比较充分”作为就业工作的重要目标,多措并举,妥善应对新常态下的失业问题。     

自然失业率的机理与实证分析——基于资本构成理论的研究

依据马克思主义的资本构成、资本积累和资本循环理论,设计模型对自然失业率直接测量,从分析可知,自然失业率取决于人均资本量、资本构成、平均工资等变量。对我国1991～2009年自然失业率的实证分析显示,我国自然失业率稳定上升。提出应通过深化经济结构调整、调节收入分配两极分化等措施降低自然失业率。     

中国城镇失业决定因素的实证分析——基于CHNS面板数据

采用CHNS面板数据和随机效果单位概率模型分析决定我国城镇失业率的主要因素。16—26岁青年失业率决定因素的实证结果显示：年龄的增加会降低失业概率,年龄对失业概率的边际效果较大;从教育水平变量的估计结果来看,和小学和初中毕业的劳动力相比,高中、中专毕业劳动力的失业概率较高,但是大专以上毕业的劳动力的失业概率却没有什么明显变化。全样本实证结果显示：年龄的增加会降低失业概率,但是降低的幅度会越来越小;男性、未婚、教育水平低、西部、调查失业率高、自雇就业比率和工业占产业比高的地区,劳动力的失业概率相对较高。     

Matching frictions,unemployment dynamics and the cost of business cycles

We investigate the welfare cost of business cycles implied by matching frictions. First, using the reduced form of the matching model, we show that job finding rate fluctuations generate intrinsically a non-linear effect on unemployment: positive shocks reduce unemployment less than negative shocks increase it. For the observed process of the job finding rate in the US economy, this intrinsic asymmetry increases average unemployment, which leads to substantial business cycles costs. Moreover, the structural matching model embeds other non-linearities, which alter the average job finding rate and consequently the welfare cost of business cycles. Our theory suggests to subsidizing employment in order to dampen the impact of the job finding rate fluctuations on welfare.     

Fewer in Number but Harder to Employ: Incidence and Duration of Unemployment in an Economic Upswing

During an upswing in the Norwegian labour market in the early 1990s, inflow to unemployment fell by one-quarter from October 1991 to October 1993. In contrast, the employment probabilities of the inflow rose much less for males and even decreased for females. A duration analysis showed that the average "employability" of the unemployment inflow declined due to lower previous income, a lower proportion with job experience, a higher proportion with previous unemployment experience, a higher proportion with immigrant background, and a lower proportion on recall. They were fewer in number, but harder to employ.
JEL classification : E 32; J 64     

It's all the miners' fault: On the nonlinearity in U.S. unemployment rates

The U.S. unemployment rate is generally regarded as nonlinear. In this study, we show that if there had been no miners' general strike in October of 1949, and if the aggregate unemployment rate had been 0.3% lower during that month, the 1948–2002 U.S. unemployment rate would have been linear. Hence, just a single alteration of past events would have resulted in significantly different findings regarding the linearity in the U.S. unemployment rate. This finding illustrates a need for linearity tests to be developed that are robust against the effects of outliers.     

Unemployment dynamics with international capital mobility

We study the response of domestic unemployment rates to shocks in total factor productivity for economies with high capital mobility and low labour mobility. We show that high capital mobility amplifies the impact on the domestic unemployment rate of domestic fluctuations in total factor productivity, shortens the lag of the response to shocks and raises the variability of unemployment. But average unemployment is unaffected. Capital flows increase the riskiness of labour income and reduce the riskiness of capital income but do not reduce mean welfare.