FAIR Act Implications for Land Values in the Corn Belt

In 1996 the federal government enacted the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act, which represented a sweeping change in public policy toward agriculture. This paper examines the impact of the FAIR legislation on farmland values across the U.S. Corn Belt. A representative farm framework is used to determine the impact of FAIR on farmland values. The analysis suggests that marginal production environments are likely to suffer most severely under FAIR, and that a prolonged period of weak commodity prices could engender sharp declines in farmland values.     

The 1996 FAIR Act: Measuring the Impacts on Land Leasing

Using a 1997 survey of Arkansas farm operators, Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act impacts on changes in cropping mixes on leased land, operator attitudes concerning the sharing of FAIR Act benefits with landlords, and changes in leasing arrangements due to the FAIR Act are investigated. Operators indicated that the FAIR Act caused cropping-mix changes on 24% of surveyed leases. Although some operators believe that landlords disproportionately benefit from the FAIR Act, about three-quarters feel that there was no change or had no opinion. Similarly, we find little evidence that leasing arrangements changed as a result of the FAIR Act.     

The Divergence in Canada-U.S. Grain and Oilseed Policies

This paper discusses U.S. and Canadian farm programs for grains and oilseeds. In spite of the passage of the U.S. FAIR Act in 1996, where subsidies were to be greatly reduced, subsidies reached an all-time high of over $20 billion in 2000. In Canada, just the opposite occurred, as support for the grains and oilseeds sector has dropped sharply since the mid-1990s. In addition to differences in support levels, the farm prog rams are very different. NISA and AIDA are prominent in the landscape in Canada, while under FAIR, loan deficiency payments are a key ingredient. We provide some explanations for the divergence in farm programs between the two countries, including a discussion of rent seeking and public choice.     

THE SEARCH FOR THE COST OF PRODUCTION, 1914-30

The Agriculture Act 1920, provided for British fanners from the the the autumn of 1921 guaranteed minimum prices for wheat and oats which were to be adjusted year by year in accordance with changes in ‘the cost of production’ from those recorded for the base year 1919. In preparation for this task, the agricultural departments of the United Kingdom established an Agricultural Costings Committee under a director and deputy director at Whitehall, and with 26 costings officers among the farmers in the counties. And here begins the official research into agricultural economics in this country, as distinct from the academic. For although the Agriculture Act 1920 was repealed in 1921 just before it came into force and the Costings Committee was disbanded at the same time, the collection and analysis of farming costs was soon revived by the institution of the advisory economics service. The present paper describes the events which led up to the Agricultural Costings Committee and the continuing search for ‘the cost of production’ by the agricultural economists in the early days of the advisory service.     

How U.S. Farm Programs and Crop Revenue Insurance Affect Returns to Farm Land

A simulation model incorporating price and yield variability is used to examine the impact of government farm program and crop revenue coverage (CRC) insurance payments on the probability distribution of returns to land. Results indicate that Marketing Loan Program payments have the greatest impact on both the mean and standard deviation of returns. Agricultural Market Transition Act payments shift the distribution of returns without changing the variability, creating a reduction in relative risk. Market loss assistance payments increase the mean, reduce variability, and increase skewness. When combined, farm programs substantially increase the value that risk-averse producers place on the residual returns to land and substantially reduce the certainty equivalent value of CRC.     

THE 2002 US FARM BILL: A MORE POSITIVE ASSESSMENT

The 2002 US Farm Bill: A More Positive Assessment Recent experience in the US strongly suggests that, given political realism, price instability is now the over‐riding problem of agricultural policy. From this perspective, the re‐adoption of deficiency payment support in the 2002 Farm Bill seems sensible. To critics who claim otherwise, on the ground that deficiency payments are not decoupled, it is argued here that decoupling is an empty concept for which empirical evidence is lacking, at least in agriculture. Being fixed, decoupled payments are not stabilising. The 2002 Farm Bill would have been even better if its fixed PFC payment element, inherited from the 1996 FAIR Act, had been omitted. Recent US experience with farm policy holds valuable lessons for CAP reform, including the need to ensure that producers are backed by an adequate price stabilising instrument. La loi agricole américaine 2002: une interprétation plus positive Sauf à manquer de réalisme politique, ? experience recente des Etats Unis conduit à considèrer ? instabilityé des prix comme le problème majeur de la politique agricole. De ce point de vue, ?‘adoption ?’ un système de ‘paiements compensatoires’ (deficiency payment) dans la loi agricole 2002 n'est pas dépourvu de sens. A ceux qui, au motif que les paiements compensatoires ne sont pas découples, disent le contraire, on répondra que le découplage est un concept vide de sens, dont ? existence n'est attestée par aucune étude empirique, en tout cas en agriculture. De par leur flxité même, les primes decouplers ne peuvent contribuer a la stabilisation. La loi agricole 2002 aurait été encore meilleure si elle avait supprime les primes fixes ‘PFC,’ héritées du FAIR act de 1996. Pour la PAC, il y a beaucoup de le?ons à tirer de cette expérience que les Etats Unis viennent de faire avec leur politique agricole, notamment la nécessité? adosser les producteurs à un système adéquat de stabilisation. Das US Landwirtschaftsgesetz von 2002 Eine etwas positivere Die jüngsten Erfahrungen aus den USA legen es nahe, dass bei realistis‐cher politischer Einschätzung die Preisinstabilität heute das größte Problem für die Agrarpolitik darstellt. Aus dieser Sicht erscheint die Wiederaufnahme der Stützung durch ‘deficiency payments’ (Produktsubventionen) in das Landwirt‐schaftsgesetz sinnvoll. Den Kritlkern, die das Gegenteil behaupten, da es sich bei deficiency payments nicht um entkoppelte Zahlungen handele, wird hier entgegen gehalten, dass es sich bei der Entkopplung um einen leeren Begriff handelt, für welchen zumindest im Bereich der Landwirtschaft keine empirischen Beweise vorliegen. Da entkoppelte Zahlungen vorab festgelegt werden, wirken sie sich nicht stabilisierend aus. Das Landwirtschaftsgesetz von 2002 würde noch besser greifen, wenn die aus dem FAIR‐Gesetz von 1996 ubernommenen festgelegten PFC (production flexibility contracts)‐Zahlungen nicht mit aufgenommen worden wären. Aus den jüngsten Erfahrungen mit der Agrarpolitik in den USA ergeben sich wertvolle Lehren in Hinblick auf die Reform der GAP; unter anderem die Notwendigkeit, dass die Produzenten durch ein geeignetes Instrument zur Preisstabilisierung geschützt werden.     

The future of Russia’s agriculture and food industry between global opportunities and technological restrictions

This paper reports on the result of a major foresight exercise commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation on the prospective developments of the agriculture and food industry up to the year 2030. The exercise identified economic, technological, social and ecological trends that will greatly influence both supply and demand in the industry. The findings provide a decision base for policy-makers to improve the technology base and to ease the reliance on technology imports. The country’s agricultural producers have been struggling with the introduction of new technologies, and customers are showing conservative demand patterns. Previous research showed that technology transfer into Russian agricultural enterprises suffers from a low knowledge level especially in receiving organizations. The country’s own S&T system requires support both for technology development and technology transfer, especially for breeding of best-suited plants and animals for local circumstances. Furthermore, consumer behaviour could be influenced towards higher demand, for example, organic food or ethical husbandry.     

U.S. Farm Policy and the Volatility of Commodity Prices and Farm Revenues

A dynamic three-commodity rational-expectations storage model is used to compare the impact of the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act of 1996 with a free-market policy, and with pre-FAIR policies. Results suggest that FAIR did not lead to significant increases in long-run price volatility or revenue volatility. The main impact of pre-FAIR, relative to the free-market regime, was to substitute government storage for private storage in a way that did little to support prices or to stabilize farm incomes. Results also indicate that U.S. grain market volatility in 1995–2000 was due to fundamental market forces and not to FAIR.     

The Pursuit of Efficiency and Its Unintended Consequences: Contract Withdrawals in the Environmental Quality Incentives Program

This article analyzes why the USDA's Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) experiences contract withdrawals. Among approved contracts, 17% withdrew one or more conservation practices. After presenting a model of producers' behavior, a logit model is used to examine the withdrawal phenomenon. Withdrawals are linked to producers having an incentive to include low cost-share payments and practices in the conservation plan that increase the probability of approval, but may not be profitable. These results are discussed in light of the changes to EQIP that have been introduced by the 2002 Farm Act.     

Tracking urban sprawl: Using spatial data to inform farmland preservation policy

The development of state farmland preservation policies has primarily relied upon results of the Census of Agriculture that is updated every 5 years by the USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service. Questions about the suitability of the Census of Agriculture center on the measures of total farmland and total cropland as reported by agricultural producers. The reliance on these variables fails to distinguish between conversion to developed uses and other fluctuations in the total availability of farmland. This inability to directly measure farmland conversion to developed uses has been shown to influence state level farmland preservation policies. The policies of Illinois and Indiana highlight the disparate approaches, with Illinois pursuing an intensive policy to protect farmland and Indiana choosing to not address farmland preservation at a state level. In order to assess the suitability of the different approaches to farmland preservation policy it is critical to evaluate the Census of Agriculture data used to justify the policies of Illinois and Indiana.     

Valuing habitat regime models for the red-cockaded woodpecker in Mississippi

Managing Mississippi's forest lands to produce both quality wildlife habitat as well as merchantable timber can be a daunting challenge for forest managers and a source of great concern for the public. In some cases, producing both the quantity and quality of habitat needed and the timber desired is all but impossible. In other cases, a delicate balance that achieves both objectives can be struck. The objective of this study was to quantitatively estimate monetary gains and losses and changes in timber inventories relative to the timber growing stock when producing more or less habitat for the red-cockaded woodpecker (RCW) (Picoides borealis). USDA Forest Service vegetation data, habitat ratings, and economic variables were compiled for those regions of Mississippi best suited for RCWs. Data was then analyzed with Spectrum, the USDA Forest Service-based forest planning software. Models maximizing such objectives as net present value (NPV) alone as well as five different levels of RCW habitat quality over a 50-year rotation were developed. Revenue foregone, acres and volumes harvested, land expectation value (LEV), and equivalent annual income (EAI) were compared for all objectives for the South Central Hills and Pine Belt regions of Mississippi (1,036,208 acres) for three ownership types. As expected, when maximizing for any quality level of RCW habitat, revenue forgone was higher ($0.11–$49/acre/year) than for NPV alone. Volume harvested for high-quality habitat ranged from 152,296 to 10,237,649 cunits, while harvests from low-quality habitat ranged from 637,491 to 116,357,673 cunits. Lower levels of habitat management allowed for an increased emphasis on timber harvesting. In general, we determined that increases in habitat quality resulted in lower timber harvest levels and increased revenue forgone than regimes maximizing NPVs. While this result may be expected, of greater importance are the relative differences between regimes and the ability to use these values for policy decisions.     

The 2002 U.S. Farm Bill: What's In It For CAP and WTO Reform?

The 2002 U.S. Farm Bill: What's In It For CAP and WTO Reform? The 2002 U.S. Farm Bill (the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act or FSRIA) provides considerably more government subsidies for U.S. agriculture than Congress envisaged when it passed the preceding 1996–2002 FAIR Act. We review the FAIR record, showing how government subsidies increased greatly beyond those originally scheduled. For FSRIA, we outline key commodity, trade, and conservation and environmental provisions. We expect that the commodity programmes will: (a) encourage production when the market calls for less; (b) significantly increase subsidies over FAIR baseline subsidies; (c) press against current WTO and possible Doha Round support limits; and (d) aggravate trading partners. Finally, we suggest two lessons from the U.S. policy experience that might benefit those working on CAP and WTO reform. First, past research shows that farm programmes have little to do with the economic health of rural communities. Second, programme transparency, and especially public disclosure of the level of payments going to individual farmers, by name, influences the farm policy debate. Personalized data show what economists have long maintained—that the bulk of programme benefits go to a relatively few, large, producers—but do so in a way that captures the public and policy‐makers' attention. La loi d'orientation agricole américaine de 2002: que peut on en tirer pour réformer la PAC et l'OMC? La loi d'orientation agricole américaine de 2002 (loi sur la securité et l'investissement rural, ou FSRIA) autorise beaucoup plus de subventions a l'agriculture des Etats Unis qu'il n'avait été envisagé par le congrès quand fut votée la loi d'orientation précédente, le “Fair Act” en vigueur de 1996 à 2002. L'examen du Fair Act réalisé ici montre que les subventions durant cette période avaient déjà augmenté beaucoup plus qu'il n‘était initialement prévu. Dans le cas du FSRIA, des provisions importantes sont prévues pour les produits clé, le commerce, la conservation des sols, et l'environnement. Il faut s'attendre à ce que les programmes par produit: (a): encouragent la production alors même que le marché en demanderait la réduction, (b) accroissent significativement les subventions par rapport au niveau de base du Fair Act (c) exercent une pression à la hausse sur les limites imposées aux soutiens, tant dans la réglementation actuelle de l'OMC que dans celle qui pourrait être adopté dans les négociation de Doha (d) lèsent gravement les partenaires commerciaux des Etats Unis. Pour finir, deux enseignements de la politique américaine pourraient être utiles à ceux qui, en Europe, songent à réformer l'OMC et la PAC: d'abord, l'histoire montre que les subventions n'ont pas grand chose à voir avec la santééconomique des communautés rurales. Ensuite, la transparence des programmes en question, et tout spécialement, l'affichage nominatif des bénéficiaires de subventions, est de nature à influer sur le débar de politique agricole. Les données personnalisées montrent ce que les économistes out toujours dit: les subventions bénéficient pour l'essentiel à un petit nombre de producteurs relativement riches, mais d'une façon telle qu'ils arrivent à mobiliser l'opinion et les décideurs politiques en leur faveur. Das US‐Landwirtschaftsgesetz von 2002: Wie wirkt es sich auf GAP und WTO‐Reform aus? Das US‐Landwirtschaftsgesetz von 2002 (FSRIA, Gesetz zur Absicherung von landwirtschaftlichen Betrieben und zur Förderung von Investitionen in ländlichen Räumen) sieht wesentlich höhere staatliche Subventionen für die Landwirtschaft der USA vor als es der Kongress bei tier Verabschiedung des FAIR‐Gesetzes (1996–2002) beabsichtigte. Die Subventionen haben während der Laufzeit des Gesetzes die vorgesehene Höhe weit überschritten. Für das FSRIA werden die Bestimmungen für die Hauptagrarprodukte, den Handel und den Umweltschutz kurz dargestellt. Es ist zu erwarten, dass die Programme (a) die landwirtschaftliche Produktion in Perioden anregen, in denen die Weltmarktpreise niedrig sind; (b) die Subventionen weit über den im FAIR‐Gesetz vorgesehenen Betrag hinaus erhöhen; (c) gegen das in der WTO festgeschriebene und zukünftig in der Doha‐Runde wahrscheinliche gekürzte Stützungsniveau verstoßon können und (d) die Missbilligung der Handelspartner hervorrufen werden. Aus der Erfahrung mit der US‐Politik greifen wir zum Schluss zwei Erkenntnisse heraus, die für diejenigen hilfreich sein können, die sich mit der GAP und der WTO‐Reform beschäftigen. Erstens zeigt die bisherige Forschung, dass die Programme zur Förderung von landwirtschaftlichen Betrieben nur wenig zum wirtschaftlichen Wohlergehen ländlicher Räume beitragen. Zweitens beeinflusst die Transparenz der Programme die politische Debatte in Bezug auf landwirtschaftliche Betriebe – insbesondere durch die öffentliche Nennung der Höhe der Zahlungssummen und der Namen der Empfänger. Diese personalisierten Daten zeigen, was Wirtschaftswissenschaftler bereits seit langem behaupten – dass relativ wenige Großerzeuger am meisten von den Programmen profitieren und dabei die Aufmerksamkeit der Öffentlichkeit und die der politischen Entscheidungsträger auf sich ziehen.     

Did the Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act Alter Farm Enterprise Diversification?

We estimate how much United States farms changed enterprise diversification in response to a marked increase in crop insurance coverage brought about by the 1994 Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act, which substantially increased insurance subsidies. The analysis exploits farm‐level panel census data to compare farm‐specific changes in enterprise diversification over time. By examining diversification decisions of the same farms over time, we control for time‐invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity. We then use pooled cross‐sectional data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Resource Management Survey to estimate the relationship between farm diversification and average returns. We find that the insurance subsidies caused a modest increase in enterprise specialisation and production efficiency. Estimated efficiency gains are far less than the subsidies.     

Land acquisition in the Cuyahoga Valley National Recreation Area

Creation of the Cuyahoga Valley National Recreation Area (CVNRA) began in 1974, with the aim of encompassing 32 000 acres in the Cuyahoga River Valley, northern Ohio. By 1986 only 14 000 acres had been acquired — little over 40% of the planned total. The land acquisition aspects of the park plans have not run smoothly, and many problems have been encountered while changing private holdings over to the public domain. This article looks at the events surrounding the founding and creation of the park, and the current state of landownership within the CVNRA. Will the park ever be completed?     

Supply Response to Countercyclical Payments and Base Acre Updating under Uncertainty: An Experimental Study

We design an experiment to simulate how people make agricultural production decisions under three policy scenarios, each incorporating direct payments (DPs): ( a ) price uncertainty without countercyclical payments (CCPs); ( b ) price uncertainty with CCPs; and ( c ) price uncertainty, CCPs, and uncertainty regarding base acreage updating. Results are the CCP program and perceived possibility of future base updating created incentives for subjects to invest more in program (base) crops, despite payments being decoupled from current production decisions. Those choosing to reduce revenue risk by increasing plantings of base crops may face reduced incomes, suggesting the efficiency of crop markets may be diminished.     

The CAP for Turkey? Potential Market Effects and Budgetary Implications

EU accession negotiations with Turkey are scheduled to start in October 2005. The period of accession negotiations will probably last for ten years or longer, but the effects of applying the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to Turkey are currently a controversial discussion in the EU. Effects of Turkish accession on EU agricultural markets are likely to be small. The EU would gain additional export opportunities for cereals and animal products. On the other hand, Turkish agricultural exports to the EU are projected to increase for only a few fruit and vegetable products. EU budgetary outlays for the application of the CAP to Turkey could total between £3.5 and £6.3 billion in 2015 – depending on whether direct payments are phased in or not – and £5.4 billion in 2025. Most of these outlays would be for direct payments to agricultural producers and that may not be in Turkey's best interest. This is because direct payments tend to be capitalized in land prices and may thus inhibit the necessary process of improving the Turkish agricultural structure. Transfers under the second pillar of the CAP may hold more interest for Turkey, because they can be targeted at improving productivity and thereby income. Projected outlays for the CAP take a backseat to projected transfers to Turkey under the structural policy of the EU.     

US farm support under a Biden administration: Plus ça change,plus c'est la même chose?

During the Trump administration, there has been an unprecedented increase in the level of domestic support provided to US agricultural producers. Direct farm supports, including price and income support payments, federal crop insurance, and supplemental assistance to compensate losses due to the trade war with China and the pandemic, have accounted for more than one‐third of net farm income. Those payments have threatened to push the United States over its World Trade Organization (WTO) domestic support obligations and increased its vulnerability to potential dispute settlement challenges in the WTO. The incoming Biden administration will likely bring a new focus to repurpose farm subsidies to provide environmental benefits, such as reduced greenhouse gas emissions, but to achieve those reforms they will need to convince a US Congress that has historically been prone to maintaining the status quo.     

HIGHLAND FORESTRY: AN EVALUATION

Almost 20,000 acres of new forest are planted in Highland Scotland each year. At present high interest rates this investment is unlikely to be commercially profitable; the creation of employment in an area of high unemployment is held, however, to justify Government help. These opposing considerations may be quantified though the time-scale of forestry is so long that figures are necessarily tentative. Current levels of costs and prices suggest that the present value of projected forest is about -65 per acre; current rates of change of costs and prices suggest a figure of - 50. As an offset to this shortfall, a continued programme of afforestation of 20,000 acres annually would lead to the creation of an additional 400 jobs in 1985. Larger employment gains will only come about when the bulk of unemployment in the area has already been absorbed by the growth in labour demand attributable to pre-1970 afforestation.     

BOUNTIES FOR FERTILIZERS

Bounty payments on fertilizers have rapidly emerged as a major form of assistance to Australian agriculture. They have been justified as a way of reducing costs and increasing productivity, though economic theory and experience from agricultural production studies suggest that they achieve these objectives inefficiently. The bounties are directed towards making acres more productive, which should in turn make farmers more productive. It is suggested that greater economic welfare would result from tackling the problem the other way round.     

Can Futures and Options Markets Hold the Milk Price Safety Net? Policy Conflicts and Market Failures in Dairy Hedging

U.S. Department of Agriculture's Dairy Options Pilot Program promoted hedging by producers, and was a test case for similar programs in other agricultural industries. Rapidly shifting milk pricing policies impeded quantitative hedging evaluations while the program was active. Hedging appears capable of reducing price variance by 50–60% in most regions, and favors large, sophisticated producers in heavy cheese manufacturing regions. Forward contracting or price insurance products may offer lower transaction costs and attract more small-scale producers. Ballooning milk deficiency payments and milk's prominent role in trade-distorting payments suggest an ongoing need to promote private price risk management tools.