Why is the teen birth rate in the United States so high and why does it matter?

Teens in the United States are far more likely to give birth than in any other industrialized country in the world. U.S. teens are two and a half times as likely to give birth as compared to teens in Canada, around four times as likely as teens in Germany or Norway, and almost 10 times as likely as teens in Switzerland. Among more developed countries, Russia has the next highest teen birth rate after the United States, but an American teenage girl is still around 25 percent more likely to give birth than her counterpart in Russia. Moreover, these statistics incorporate the almost 40 percent fall in the teen birth rate that the United States has experienced over the past two decades. Differences across U.S. states are quite dramatic as well. A teenage girl in Mississippi is four times more likely to give birth than a teenage girl in New Hampshire--and 15 times more likely to give birth as a teen compared to a teenage girl in Switzerland. This paper has two overarching goals: understanding why the teen birth rate is so high in the United States and understanding why it matters. Thus, we begin by examining multiple sources of data to put current rates of teen childbearing into the perspective of cross-country comparisons and recent historical context. We examine teen birth rates alongside pregnancy, abortion, and "shotgun" marriage rates as well as the antecedent behaviors of sexual activity and contraceptive use. We seek insights as to why the rate of teen childbearing is so unusually high in the United States as a whole, and in some U.S. states in particular. We argue that explanations that economists have tended to study are unable to account for any sizable share of the variation in teen childbearing rates across place. We describe some recent empirical work demonstrating that variation in income inequality across U.S. states and developed countries can explain a sizable share of the geographic variation in teen childbearing. To the extent that income inequality is associated with a lack of economic opportunity and heightened social marginalization for those at the bottom of the distribution, this empirical finding is potentially consistent with the ideas that other social scientists have been promoting for decades but which have been largely untested with large data sets and standard econometric methods. Our reading of the totality of evidence leads us to conclude that being on a low economic trajectory in life leads many teenage girls to have children while they are young and unmarried and that poor outcomes seen later in life (relative to teens who do not have children) are simply the continuation of the original low economic trajectory. That is, teen childbearing is explained by the low economic trajectory but is not an additional cause of later difficulties in life. Surprisingly, teen birth itself does not appear to have much direct economic consequence. Moreover, no silver bullet such as expanding access to contraception or abstinence education will solve this particular social problem. Our view is that teen childbearing is so high in the United States because of underlying social and economic problems. It reflects a decision among a set of girls to "drop-out" of the economic mainstream; they choose non-marital motherhood at a young age instead of investing in their own economic progress because they feel they have little chance of advancement. This thesis suggests that to address teen childbearing in America will require addressing some difficult social problems: in particular, the perceived and actual lack of economic opportunity among those at the bottom of the economic ladder.     

Teen families,welfare transfers,and the minimum wage: evidence from Canada

Abstract This study evaluates the impacts of welfare transfers and the minimum wage on teen family formation by pooling provincial data from Canada between 1990 and 2005. OLS estimates suggest that welfare transfers have had limited impact on teen births. On the other hand, a 10% increase in the minimum wage is significantly correlated with a 3%–5% rise in teen birth rates. This finding is explained by further regressions, which reveal that an increase in the minimum wage is significantly associated with (1) higher earnings among male teens, (2) an increase in teen marriage rates, and (3) an increase in fertility among married teens but not among unmarried females. Finally, estimates based on the 2003 and 2005 waves of the Canadian Community Health Surveys demonstrate that married teens are more likely to engage in sex as well as unprotected intercourse in comparison with single teens.     

U.S.-Japanese competition in high-technology fields

As Japan has moved abreast of the United States in the export capability of high-technology products, the competition between the two countries has intensified not only in private sector R&D but also in terms of increased governmental assistance and protectionist measures. This increased competition can be seen in the three electronics industry cases of semiconductors, computers, and robotics, and is specifically illustrated by Japan's VLSI and fifth generation computer projects and the FBI-IBM sting operation in Silicon Valley. All portend a greater technological rivalry, with continuing critical consequences for society.     

光伏发电政策工具与政府选择——基于德国、日本和中国的比较研究

光伏发电市场在本质上是一个公共政策驱动的市场。为促进光伏发电产业技术进步和规模化发展,培育战略性新兴产业,我国出台相关政策,但其驱动效果与发达国家相比仍有很大差距。通过对比中国、德国和日本三个国家的光伏发电政策工具,可以发现政策设计要取得预期效果,不仅要考虑政策工具的性质及其适用性,还需要兼顾政策工具与政策环境、政策问题、目标受众的适应性。     

Public Saving and Policy Coordination in Aging Economies

In the coming decades, the share of people of working age will fall significantly in most developed countries. According to optimal taxation theory, public debts should be reduced before the baby‐boom generation retires. I find that if debts are instead maintained at current levels, welfare may be reduced substantially in countries with a large public sector and/or a large demographic change. Since population aging will be less dramatic in the United States than in Europe and Japan, capital will move from Europe and Japan to the United States. These capital movements will facilitate the US demographic transition but aggravate the transition in most European countries.     

Report on a new technological community: The making of a technopolis in an international context

In 1980 the Japanese government conceptualized technopolises. Nine technopolises are already in operation in 1984, and several more will follow. A technopolis is a healthy living environment with cultural amenities combined with high technology industries, away from the existing overcrowded industrial centers and adapted to local characteristics. This article focuses on the most advanced technopolis on the “Silicon Island” Kyushu, describes its process of development, and its future advantages and disadvantages compared to other technopolises.     

Market variance risk premiums in Japan for asset predictability

This article evaluates the predictive performance of variance risk premiums (VRPs) in Japan on the Nikkei 225 returns, credit spreads, and the composite index of coincident indicators. Different monthly VRPs, such as expected and ex-post VRPs, are measured by using model-free implied and realized variances from option prices and high-frequency (HF) data, and their predictive ability is compared with that of VRPs using a realized measure based on coarser frequency return observations. The empirical results show that the VRPs in Japan with HF data are useful in predicting credit spreads and the composite index of coincident indicators, but lose their predictive ability for the Nikkei 225 returns. Such significant predictive power tends to be greater for the expected VRPs with HF data relative to the ex-post VRP with HF data and VRPs with daily data as well as for lower investment grade credit spreads.     

日本海洋科技开发战略及动向

日本是能源和矿产资源极为稀缺的国家,为了摆脱在资源和能源领域受制于人的被动局面,日本正在制定雄心勃勃的海洋开发战略,希望通过促进"产官学研"密切协作的方式,在海洋开发上获得突破。日本海洋开发的重要领域包括:海底可燃冰、海底稀土、海底热水矿床、海水提取锂、海流发电、海上风电及海洋藻类生物燃料。通过对日本政府指导海洋开发的纲领性文件《海洋基本计划》的分析与研究,期望对我国未来制定较为全面的海洋科技开发战略提供参考。     

Explaining the Poverty Difference between Inland and Coastal China: A Regression-based Decomposition Approach

This study proposes a decomposition framework for quantifying contributions of the determinants of poverty to spatial differences or temporal changes in poverty. This framework is then applied to address the issue why poverty incidence is higher in inland than in coastal China. The empirical application requires household or individual income observations which, generally speaking, are not available. Thus, a data‐generation method developed by Shorrocks and Wan is introduced to construct such observations from grouped income data. It is found that inland China is poorer than coastal China, mainly due to lower efficiency in resource utilization rather than less endowment of resources. Also, trade became poverty‐reducing in coastal China in the late 1990s but remained poverty‐inducing in inland China. Policy implications are briefly discussed.     

SAVED BY THE MORNING BELL: SCHOOL START TIME AND TEEN CAR ACCIDENTS

Adolescents today suffer from chronic sleep deprivation due to a combination of biological changes to the circadian clock and early morning school bell times. Many school districts are now considering delaying high school start times to accommodate the sleep schedules of teens. This paper explores whether such policy changes can have an unexpected impact on teen car accident rates. This impact could function both through a direct effect on teen sleep deprivation and indirectly through changes to the driving environment, that is, shifting the time and conditions under which teens commute to school. By focusing on late‐night accidents and employing a difference‐in‐differences strategy using adult drivers as a control group, I find evidence of a persistent sleep deprivation mechanism. A 15‐minute delay in school start time causes a significant decrease in late‐night teen accidents of approximately 23%. However, I also find evidence of an opposing mechanism that is present during the morning commuting hours. A 15‐minute delay in high school start time leads to a 21% increase in morning teen car accidents. (JEL I29, J13, R41)     

概率归纳逻辑的兴起

从穆勒等人对或然性的探讨,经耶方斯对概率归纳逻辑的开创,到卡尔纳普代表的现代概率归纳逻辑体系,考察了概率归纳逻辑的发展历程,从中揭示其兴起的原因,并分析现代归纳逻辑发展的一些新趋势。     

独特人口年龄结构下宏观调控政策取向分析

人口做为生产国民财富、创造国民收入的本源力量——劳动力的自然母体,其本身又构成了对产品进行消费,提供消费购买动力的基础,因而与经济发展有着深刻关系。二战后的日本与今日之中国人口年龄结构均发生了急剧变化,形成了一种既别于发达国家,亦有别于发展中国家的独特人口年龄结构。实证分析显示,这种独特人口年龄结构对经济增长有着直接的促进作用,同时又对当前的宏观调控政策提出特殊要求。     

人力资本对返乡农民工收入增长的影响研究

本文基于对2007年从沿海发达地区大城市回流到欠发达地区的农村、小城镇工作的3026位农民工的调查数据,运用改进后的明瑟尔收入模型,估计出农民工在城市打工与返乡发展两种情况下的人力资本收益率。证明了农民工在城市打工的人力资本收益率要低于其返乡之后的收益率;验证了农民工在城市打工时,人力资本从深度与广度上都被低估,而返乡之后,人力资本能够得到相应报偿,从而收入获得增长的设想。     

Situational logic in social science inquiry: From economics to criminology

Karl R. Popper proposed that the method of explanation in economics, or situational logic, should become the general model for analyses across the social sciences. This article makes good Popper's proposal by extending situational logic to a social problem outside the traditional scope of economics: crime. Specifically, the discussion reviews models developed by economist Gary S. Becker and criminologist Ronald V. Clarke. Becker's ‘economic approach’ to crime incorporates essential features of situational logic. Clarke's ‘situational crime prevention’ offers an even better demonstration; it explicitly incorporates the ideas of piecemeal social engineering and unintended social repercussions. Popper took situational logic from Menger and the Austrians, making this emerging area of criminology an extension of Austrian economics.

An empirical analysis on the law of purchasing power parity and international economic deepening

This article empirically investigates the effect of international trade on the deviation of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) law and on the international economic deepening in four developed countries (Japan, USA, UK and France), and three Asian developing ones (South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia), using International Financial Statistics (IFS) data issued by International Monetary Fund (IMF). Our results show that in some developed countries the imbalance effect of balance of payments is significant for both international deepening and deviation from PPP, and in some developing countries the volume effect of balance of payments is significant for international deepening.     

The Impacts of Japanese and US Outsourcing on Chinese Firms

This paper investigates the impact of manufacturing outsourcing to China from its two biggest trading partners—the USA and Japan, for the period of 1990–2008. Both a fundamental model and an augmented model are established, using export data of intermediate goods and two subcategories, processed goods and parts and components (P&C). We find that output growth is positively correlated with outsourcing, and outsourcing from the USA and Japan exerts lower effects than the average level. Our results show that Chinese outsourcees not only access higher productivity than their domestic non‐outsourcee counterparts, but also generate spillover effects to the non‐outsourcees. Moreover, outsourcees of Japanese multinational corporations (MNCs) gain more technological advantage while outsourcees of US origin act as a more effective external stimulus to increase production of non‐outsourcees in China.     

Household savings in Japan revisited

This paper investigates household saving behaviour by different cohorts with various household characteristics in Japan. Pooling the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure in 1984, 1989 and 1994, the cohort analysis finds a substantial behavioural difference in the baby-boomer generation in Japan after 1989. As this generation is the largest demographic group, this finding provides valuable information to policy makers, especially in terms of intergenerational equity.     

中日钢铁企业效率比较研究

尽管我国钢铁产量已跃居世界首位,但钢铁大国不等于强国,我国钢铁企业在技术、规模等方面与世界发达国家还存在较大差距.日本自上世纪70年代以来成为世界上最大的钢铁强国,并保持了20余年,技术与规模正是其长盛不衰的主要原因.本文使用2004-2009年中日钢铁企业面板数据,运用目前较为先进的投入产出理论和效率与生产率分析方法对两国钢铁企业效率进行比较分析,结果发现中国钢铁企业整体上快速进步但技术效率下降,可谓大而不强,日本钢铁企业中大中型钢铁企业的全要素生产率的提升速度要快于中小型钢铁企业,规模与技术优势明显,呈现衰而不弱,因此,提高技术投入、扩大企业规模、提高产业集中度是中国钢铁产业做强的必由之路     

汇率风险和中国产业的国际竞争

在新发展格局下，现代产业发展更加注重发展和安全的平衡。本文采用2005—2018年的数据分析了中国各行业面临的汇率风险暴露和国外产业竞争。研究发现：中国有426%的行业面临汇率风险暴露，资源品行业受到汇率冲击的影响最为严重，可贸易品行业受益于人民币兑美元贬值，但汇率的敏感性远低于日美贸易战时期。中国有389%的行业面临来自美国的产业竞争，产业支持政策在一定程度上增强了中国产业的竞争力。除美国外，中国的产业竞争主要来自英国、法国等欧洲发达国家。在此基础上，讨论了后疫情时代企业国际化的困难和应对。本文的研究对于汇率风险管理和产业政策制定有重要的参考价值。     

Relative prices and international competitiveness: An empirical investigation

This paper examines the relationship between competitive shares and relative prices for the exports of Japan, Korea and India over the past fifteen years. For Japan the results are consistent with neotechnological theories, and may be explained by a recently explicated model which applies the logic of Hicks' induced innovation mechanism to trade analysis. For the developing countries the results are found to be systematically associated with foreign trade regimes pursued as a part of overall development strategies. Thus the applicability of typical results derivable from standard static trade theories are found to be bound or restricted to special cases defined by stages of economic development, and by policy choices.