Informational Benefits of International Treaties

International treaties allow a minister in one country to learn about the beliefs held by a minister in another country, so allowing each to make better decisions. When the net benefits of environmental policy are uncertain, a country which participates in negotiating an environmental treaty, or which supports strong environmental action, thereby provides information to another country that such action can be worthwhile. This dimension of international environmental agreements helps explain why countries negotiate treaties, why these treaties often implement the Nash non-cooperative equilibrium, why agreement to a treaty by a country deemed not particularly favorable to it can strengthen environmental action, and why treaties may invoke a minimum participation clause. The informational mechanism we discuss holds even if physical spillovers are absent, and even if monitoring and enforcement are infeasible. Our approach can explain additional phenomena: how requirements for approval by several bodies within a country can increase support for a policy, and why simultaneous action can lead to better outcomes than sequential action.     

When do firms support environmental agreements?

Several firms have recently supported their countries’ participation in international environmental agreements where countries commit to stricter environmental regulation. This paper analyzes the rationale of this conduct by examining equilibrium emission standards with and without environmental treaties. We identify that more stringent environmental regulation produces two effects on firm profits: a negative effect due to larger abatement costs, and a positive effect that arises from the amelioration of duopoly overproduction. We describe under which conditions the positive effect dominates the negative effect, increasing firm profits, and inducing them to support their countries’ participation in environmental treaties.     

Minimum participation rules in international environmental agreements: empirical evidence from a survey among delegates in international climate negotiations

Recent contributions to the theoretical and experimental literature suggest that minimum participation rules (MPRs) are able to reduce free-riding incentives and may facilitate cooperation (or at least coordination) at the extensive margin of international environmental agreements. Based on a data set from a worldwide survey among delegates in international climate negotiations, this article assesses preferences for different MPRs for a future climate treaty among key players. The empirical findings provide evidence that small countries with low bargaining power rather opt for large minimum membership requirements while industrialized countries push forward the idea of a small carbon club of the largest emitters only. In contrast, delegates from countries in transition try to keep emission thresholds rather low which would allow a future agreement to come into force without their signature.     

Cooperation in international environmental negotiations due to a preference for equity

This paper demonstrates that cooperation in international environmental negotiations can be explained by preferences for equity. Within a N-country prisoner’s dilemma in which agents can either cooperate or defect, in addition to the standard non-cooperative equilibrium, cooperation of a large fraction or even of all countries can establish a Nash equilibrium. In an emission game, however, where countries can choose their abatement level continuously, equity preferences cannot improve upon the standard inefficient Nash equilibrium. Finally, in a two stage game on coalition formation, the presence of equity-interested countries increases the coalition size and leads to efficiency gains. Here, even a stable agreement with full cooperation can be reached.     

The Oecd Model Tax Treaty: Tax Competition And Two‐Way Capital Flows*

Model tax treaties do not require tax rate coordination, but do require that either credits or exemptions be applied to repatriated earnings. This contradicts recent models with a single capital exporter where deductions are most efficient. I incorporate the fact that capital flows are typically bilateral. With symmetric countries, credits by both is the unique and efficient treaty equilibrium. This equilibrium weakly dominates the nontreaty equilibrium. With asymmetric countries, the treaty need not offer improvements without tax harmonization. With harmonization, it is always possible to reach efficient capital allocations while increasing both countries' welfares only if neither uses deductions.     

International Environmental Agreements under Endogenous Uncertainty

This paper explores the implications of the possibility of a shift in environmental damages on the participation in environmental treaties. Using a two‐period model where the probability of a regime shift increases in the first‐period pollution stock, we examine the issue of coalition formation under both fixed and dynamic membership. Our analysis suggests that endogenous uncertainty may increase participation. We find that full cooperation may be sustained, but only in the presence of endogenous uncertainty. Interestingly, when the shift in the environmental damage is large enough, the model provides a way to solve the “puzzle of small coalitions” found in the literature related to international environmental agreements. We also find that in period 1 (period 2) endogenous uncertainty leads to a lower (higher) pollution stock under dynamic membership as compared to the fixed membership case.     

The impact of endogenous tax treaties on foreign direct investment: theory and evidence

Abstract .  This paper investigates the effect of tax treaties on bilateral stocks of outward FDI. For this purpose we employ a numerically solvable general equilibrium model of trade and multinational firms to study the impact of tax treaties on both welfare and outward FDI. The model indicates under which factor endowment configurations countries gain in welfare when implementing a tax treaty. This motivates an empirical specification of the endogenous selection into implementing new tax treaties. Using data of bilateral OECD outward FDI between 1985 and 2000, we find a significant negative impact of newly implemented tax treaties on outward FDI stocks.     

A Strategic Analysis of Eutrophication Abatement in the Baltic Sea

Cooperation between the littoral countries of the Baltic Sea to mitigate eutrophication has proven difficult in the past. In this study, we explore the countries’ incentives to free-ride on agreements, find stable coalitions where free-riding is deterred, and propose alternative ways of designing stable agreements that would reduce eutrophication in the sea. We conclude that strong free-riding incentives for some countries preclude the socially optimal solution in the absence of an enforcing authority. A stable agreement can, however, be formed with some loss in efficiency. The research shows that a treaty with modest abatement targets between all the littoral countries would be more efficient than a coalition between fewer countries but with more ambitious targets. We compare the two international institutions involved in the protection of the Baltic Sea—the intergovernmental Helsinki Commission and the partly supranational European Union—and show that the European Union would not benefit from enforcing an agreement among its member states on the Baltic without Russia being involved in the conservation efforts. Our results suggest that efficient abatement and full participation could be achieved by using the power the European Union has to enforce such an agreement among its members and, simultaneously, negotiating with Russia within the Helsinki Commission.     

Does precipitation and runoff variability affect treaty cooperation between states sharing international bilateral rivers?

Elevated world temperatures, as forecasted by the 4th IPCC report, are expected to increase the hydrological cycle activity, leading to a change in precipitation patterns and increase in evapotranspiration. These in turn are expected to affect river runoff and water variability, depending on basin latitude. In this paper, we assess the impact of water supply variability on ‘treaty cooperation’ (defined here as the likelihood of treaty formation and number of treaties formed) between international bilateral river basin riparian states. The water variability measure that we use captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability. We employ additional control variables adopted from economic and international relations theories on international cooperation. The main results suggest that water supply variability in international bilateral basins creates an impetus for cooperation. Our results support an inverted U-shaped relationship between water supply variability and treaty cooperation. Similarly, interactions between the states in the form of diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation. Uneven economic power between the riparian states inhibits treaty cooperation. The geography variables we use are insignificant in all the estimated relationships.     

Public Good Provision and Ancillary Benefits: The Case of Climate Agreements

Several studies found ancillary benefits of the provision of public goods to be of considerable size. If these additional private benefits were noticed, they would imply not only higher cooperative but also non-cooperative provision levels. However, beyond these largely undisputed important quantitative effects, there would be qualitative and strategic implications associated with ancillary benefits: public policy would no longer be a pure but an impure public good. In this paper, we investigate these implications in a setting of non-cooperative coalition formation in the context of climate change. In particular, we address the following question. Would ancillary benefits if they were taken in consideration increase participation in international climate agreements and raise the success of these treaties in welfare terms?     

Cleaner Technologies and the Stability of International Environmental Agreements

This paper shows that if countries are farsighted when deciding whether to defect from a coalition, then the implementation of cleaner technologies, as embodied by a reduction in the emission per output ratio, may either improve or jeopardize the chances of reaching an international environmental agreement. A small change in the emission per output ratio can result in a discrete jump in the stable size of a coalition and global welfare evaluated under the stable coalition size. In the case of three countries, the grand coalition may be destabilized by the implementation of cleaner technologies, ultimately resulting in higher global emissions and lower global welfare. In the case of more than three countries, implementing cleaner technologies may result in a discrete jump, either upward or downward, of the largest stable coalition size and welfare. We examine both, the case of a flow and that of a stock pollutant. In the latter case, we show that the higher the stock of pollution at the instant when the cleaner technology is implemented, the more likely that a grand coalition of three countries is destabilized. Measures that enhance the natural rate of decay of stock pollutants are shown to have similar effects on the size of stable coalitions to reductions in the emission per output ratio.     

Coalition Stability in Public Goods Provision: Testing an Optimal Allocation Rule

We test the canonical model of international environmental agreements (IEAs) in a laboratory setting with asymmetric agents. IEA participation represents coalition formation and public good provision where there are gains to cooperation, but an incentive to free-ride. We test four competing methods of dividing the coalition’s worth: a recently proposed optimal rule which accounts for subjects’ payoffs as a single free-rider, the Shapley value, the Nash bargaining solution, and an equal split. Each treatment generates the theoretically predicted coalition size more often than not. The shares of the potential gains to cooperation achieved by each rule are: 51, 36, 40 and 13%, respectively. These results highlight the importance of using an optimal rule to improve IEAs, and more broadly for voluntary public good provision.     

The Big Bang: Tax Evasion After Automatic Exchange of Information Under FATCA and CRS

ABSTRACT

After decades of ineffective attempts to fight tax evasion, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) and the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) recently implemented the first encompassing international exchange of tax-related information on an automatic basis. This is an important development because tax evasion contributes to rising socio-political inequality and political sovereignty losses. This article assesses the treaties’ impact on tax evasion by conducting a difference-in-difference analysis of cross-border asset data. The results show that the treaties are successful. Household assets in tax havens that are not hidden behind corporate identities are estimated to be 67 per cent lower than they would have been without automatic exchange of information. Furthermore, this reduction is not offset by an increase in treaty circumvention using identity concealment or asset shifting to non-compliant jurisdictions. FATCA and CRS thus implement the first effective international cooperation against tax evasion. The results imply that political globalisation is capable to mitigate the political sovereignty losses and rise of inequality caused by economic globalisation.     

Asymmetric FDI and tax-treaty bargaining: theory and evidence

Tax treaties are often viewed as a mechanism for eliminating tax competition, however, this approach ignores the need for bargaining over the treaty's terms. This paper focuses on how bargaining can affect the withholding taxes set under the treaty. In a simple framework, we develop hypotheses about patterns in treaty tax rates. A key determinant for these patterns is the relative size of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) activity. In plausible situations, more asymmetric countries will negotiate treaties with higher tax rates. This theory is then tested using 1992 data from US and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) bilateral tax treaties. Overall, the data supports the prediction that greater asymmetric FDI activity increases the negotiated tax rates.     

The design of voluntary agreements in oligopolistic markets

This paper analyses the conditions under which a group of firms have the incentive to sign a voluntary agreement (VA) to control polluting emissions even in the presence of free-riding by other firms in the industry. We consider a policy framework in which firms in a given industry decide whether or not to sign a VA proposed by an environmental regulator. We identify the features that a VA should possess in order to provide firms with an incentive to participate in the VA and to enhance its economic and environmental effectiveness. Under very general conditions on the shape of the demand schedule, we obtain the following results. First, a VA does not belong to the equilibrium of the coalition game when benefits from voluntary emission abatement are a pure public good, unless an industry emission target is set by the regulator. Second, in the presence of partial spillovers—i.e. when signatories obtain more benefits from the VA than non-signatories—a VA can belong to the equilibrium only if a minimum participation rule is guaranteed. Third, a VA with a minimum participation rule and a minimum mandatory emission abatement may improve welfare (and even industry profits) compared to a VA in which firms are free to set their own profit maximizing abatement level.     

The effects of tariffs on coalition formation in a dynamic global warming game

The prospects for cooperation on climate protection beyond 2012 are currently uncertain. Thus policy instruments which foster participation in International Environmental Agreements (IEA) are in demand. Among the instruments under discussion are trade sanctions. Multi-region optimal growth models are a state of the art tool for integrated assessment, but introducing trade sanctions distorts the competitive equilibrium, making it difficult to compute numerically. We introduce trade and trade sanctions into a model of coalition stability to assess the potential of trade sanctions to support an IEA. Trade is modeled by having all countries produce a generic output good, but adopting national product differentiation (Armington assumption). Coalitions are free to impose tariffs on imports from non-cooperating countries. We solve the model numerically using a refined version of Negishi's [Negishi, T., 1960. Welfare economics and existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy. Metroeconomica 12, 92–97] basic algorithm. We then apply the model to analyze the influence of tariffs on international cooperation. The model suggests that there is indeed a significant potential to raise participation through trade sanctions, even when goods from different countries are nearly perfect substitutes. Furthermore we investigate the effect of trade sanctions on global welfare, environmental effectiveness, and the credibility of the tariff mechanism.     

EQUITY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF POSSIBLE CO2 TREATY PROPOSALS

The Montreal Protocol on chlorofluorocarbon control established an important precedent for global environmental treaties that include both developing countries and industrial countries. This paper evaluates seven possible treaty proposals to control carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Growth-rate control proposals fail on effectiveness of control or on equity differences between developing countries and industrial countries. Complex proposals link policies in population growth, economic development, world energy taxation, and forestation. These complex proposals, which appear to be both effective and equitable, can defer or avoid CO2 doubling.     

Designing international environmental agreements under participation uncertainty

Traditional international environmental agreement (IEA) models usually use some specific contribution rules, which either fail to provide sufficient incentives for cooperation, or ignore the loss from participation uncertainty. Can more general rules overcome these problems and improve the performance of IEAs? This paper analyzes the endogenous determination of contribution rules from a class of general rules through a three-stage coalition formation game under participation uncertainty. In stage one, a designer chooses a contribution rule, which, depending on the size of the signatories’ coalition formed in stage two, specifies the action each signatory should take in stage three. A contribution rule is said to be optimal when it maximizes the expected payoff of signatories. We provide an algorithm to determine an optimal rule. When uncertainty is either sufficiently large or equal to zero, the optimal rule coincides with some existing rules in the literature. However, when the uncertainty is neither large nor small, the optimal rule outperforms other rules in terms of signatories’ payoff.     

Bilateral Tax Treaties and GDP Comovement

Using a 30‐year panel of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations from of a broad set of countries, we demonstrate that the signing of a bilateral tax treaty increases the comovement of treaty partners' business cycles by half a standard deviation. This effect of fiscal policy is as large as the effect of trade linkages on comovement and stronger than the effects of several other common financial and investment linkages. We also show that bilateral tax treaties increase comovement in shocks to nations' GDP trends, demonstrating the permanent effects of coordination on fiscal policy rules. We estimate trend and business cycle components of nations' output series using an unobserved‐components model in order to measure comovement between countries and then estimate the impact of tax treaties using generalized estimating equations.     

Research cooperation and international standards in a model of coalition stability

Suggestions on international cooperation in climate policy beyond 2012 include substituting or complementing international environmental agreements (IEA) with technology-oriented agreements (TOA). We look at the impact of TOA on environmental cooperation in a framework of coalition stability. Using a numerical model, we analyze the differences of several TOA and how they interact. We find that participation in and environmental effectiveness of the IEA are raised less effectively when the TOA focuses on research cooperation in mitigation technology rather than cooperation on augmenting productivity in the private good sector. This is due to the former having an effect on all actors via emissions, whereas effects of the latter are exclusive to research partners. For the same reason, we find that restricting research cooperation to the coalition is only credible when it focuses on productivity. Technology standards that reduce the emission intensity of production are unlikely to raise participation by themselves and may suffer from inefficiencies. However, these disadvantages do not apply when standards are implemented as a complementary instrument. Separately negotiated technology standards may hence facilitate participation in an IEA without adding to its complexity.