Bioenergy in Southern Africa: An opportunity for regional integration?

ABSTRACT

This introductory paper sets out the rationale for revisiting questions surrounding biofuel futures in Southern Africa and exploring the case for the establishment of a regional market. This contrasts with most research that has focused upon benefits and risks of production and consumption for individual countries. The analysis in this issue suggests that while benefits exist, the key challenges that have stifled production and consumption to date would need to be overcome. Unlocking trade requires relaxing requirements for South African manufacturers to source all their feedstock domestically. Key among factors to encourage production is resolving agricultural investment processes, particularly designing inclusive business models and clarifying land acquisition processes.     

地区政治与国际关系研究

传统的国际关系研究增进了人们对国际关系一般性和整体性的领悟能力,但在国际关系的复杂多样性方面却缺乏深入的分析。作为解决这个问题的一种努力,我们主张关注地区政治,到地区体系和地区内的互动关系之中去考察和研究国际关系中的重要问题。作者将地区政治界定为一个有着独特性的国际关系研究领域,在强调其反映国际关系深刻性的基础上,从体系结构、进程和秩序三个方面分析了它的基本特征,并讨论了进行地区政治研究需要思考的某些理论问题。地区政治研究将有助于我们较为确切地回答在什么样的条件下国际合作或者国际冲突最为可能的问题,因此需要赋予国际关系研究以更鲜明的地区空间色彩。     

Measuring Global and Regional Trade Integration in Terms of Concentration of Access

I apply concentration measures from the inequality literature—the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient—to the measurement of global and regional integration, and show that these can be derived from the theoretical gravity model in the presence of unequal costs of access for firms from different locations to aparticular market. Overall, comparing nine economies, I find that the United States is the most globalized on these measures, and India and China are the least globalized. The smaller EU economies, which are very open on standard measures, should probably be viewed as regionalized rather than globalized. JEL no. F10, F15, C49     

On the optimal external tariff of a free trade area with internal market integration

Previous analyses of free trade areas suggest that member countries reduce external tariffs to the level that improves welfare of non-member countries. Using an oligopoly model with product differentiation, this paper shows that when a free trade area entails endogenous change from segmented to integrated markets for internally produced goods, external tariffs become strategic complements and their equilibrium level is higher than in the market segmentation case. In this case, the non-member may lose from the formation of free trade area whereas each member gains more.     

An impact of economic integration through trade: on business cycles for 10 East Asian countries

Many recent studies about East Asian countries discussed “natural” economic integration through trade, but there are few rigorous empirical studies on how their economies were affected by the evolution of economic integration within the region. This paper investigates the effect of bilateral trade dependence on the co-movement of business cycles for 10 East Asian countries. We find that economic fluctuations tend to be more synchronized within the region as trade interdependence among them deepens. This finding suggests the necessity of cooperative efforts to prevent or adjust unfavorable future economic crisis in East Asia.     

The impact of trade facilitation factors on South Africa's exports to a selection of African countries

Economic growth can be enhanced through increased trade among countries, provided the correct institutional structures are in place. A country's trade is dependent not only on its own trade facilitation reforms but also on those of the trading partners. This paper, using an augmented gravity model, examines trade facilitation factors that impact on South Africa's exports to other selected African countries. The results of the estimation reveal the following. An improvement in the customs environment within the importing country provides the largest gain in terms of increasing trade flows, followed by the regulatory environment and domestic infrastructure. Furthermore, adjacency and common language impact positively on South African exports, while distance between countries impacts negatively on it. Being part of the Southern African Development Community is also enhancing exports from South Africa, compared with being part of the East African Community.     

国际区域一体化发展战略研究综述

区域一体化是促进经济快速发展、转变国家和地区发展方式的重要经济形式。对国际区域一体化的概念进行详细阐述,基于新经济地理学的角度对区域一体化在推动国家和地区经济发展上起到的作用以及出现的问题进行分析。同时,对区域一体化和经济全球化的关系进行论述。区域一体化是经济全球化发展的重要桥梁,对促进全球经济格局转变、经济全球化以及贸易自由化具有重要意义。最后,针对区域一体化发展形式下对中国经济发展提出建议,对经济发展过程中面临的机遇与挑战进行分析,并对中国未来的经济发展进行展望。     

African trade dynamics: is China a different trading partner?

This paper employs the standard gravity model to identify the quality of governance of China's African trade partners. As a benchmark, we perform the same analysis on other major African trade partners: France, Germany, UK, and USA. Data from 53 African countries in 1996–2009 show that only China is consistently willing to import more from African countries with a lower governance standing. By doing so; China fills a gap left open by the other major world economies, and might even play a key role in the future development of Africa.     

论区际“和”、“同”关系与区域发展

文章认为任何区域要获得可持续发展，不仅要在区域内寻找发展动力，而且还要从区际关系中寻找发展动力。不“同”不“和”，“同”而不“和”，不“同”而“和”，是区际关系的三种“和”、“同”模式。区域应给自身的发展方向准确定位，以促使区际关系向“和”发展。     

National and Regional Impacts of an Increase in Value-Added Tax: A CGE Analysis for South Africa

The South African National Treasury expected a revenue shortfall of R48.2 billion in 2017/18 and proposed tax policy measures to raise an additional R36 billion in 2018/19. A key component to raise the additional revenue was a 1% point increase in the VAT rate to 15% effective from 1 April 2018. The increase in the VAT rate was not welcomed as it would increase the cost of living, especially for the poor. We investigate the potential economy-wide and regional impacts of raising VAT and increasing public spending on education and health. We do this by developing and applying a multi-regional model of the South African economy that includes detailed tax and spending features. In this model, when we increase VAT, the impacts are driven by the direct shock to the model, accompanied by differences in regional economic activity. We find that effects on GDP vary between regions but are generally negative.     

Localisation barriers to trade: The case of South Africa’s renewable energy independent power program

South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Projects Procurement Program (REIPPPP) has been hailed as one of the most successful programmes of its kind, contracting 92 renewable energy projects totalling 6 328 MW and US$20.5 billion since its inception in 2011. Despite this success, the programme’s use of non-price factors such as local jobs, local black ownership, local content, and local community ownership in bid evaluation has generated criticism and controversy. Lessons learned in other countries about how and when to use policies like import substitution to promote sustainable economic development seem not to have been fully incorporated by the REIPPPP. We therefore offer a cautionary note that dramatic and impressive localisation results are not inevitable – especially considering the size of the South African market and accompanying investment uncertainties – and that there is bound to be a trade-off between price and non-price factors in these kinds of competitive procurement programmes.     

区域贸易安排的保护性:引力模型

通过2000-2005年EU、APEC、NAFTA三个区域贸易组织双边贸易流量基于合并数据的引力模型得出结论:三个区域贸易组织的净贸易效果均为贸易转移,但区域保护程度顺次减弱。总体上,发生贸易转移的方向从以发达国家为主的区域贸易组织转移到以新兴市场国家为主或由发达国家与发展中国家共同组成的区域贸易组织。因而,对内积极推行自由贸易,对外具有很强的贸易保护倾向是各国推行区域贸易政策的显著特征。     

China's impact on South African trade and inflation

There has been much controversy about the impact of Chinese growth on the rest of the world. It is generally accepted that China has a dampening effect on global inflation through the supply of cheap products. On the other hand, imports from China could displace domestic production and hence have adverse effects on economic growth and employment. Thus, the question of whether a country benefits from trading with China is a country-specific issue. The results in this paper indicate that limited short-term costs have resulted from the strengthening of trade relations between South Africa and China. As far as inflation is concerned, the paper does not find convincing empirical evidence at the aggregate level for inflation in China leading to domestic price changes. At the disaggregate level, however, there appear to be stronger sector-specific linkages between prices in China and South Africa.     

Broadband use and trade facilitation: Impacts on bilateral trade of sub-Saharan countries

This paper investigates the direct and combined impacts of trade facilitation and information and communication technology (ICT) on bilateral flows of 25 sub-Saharan countries. For that purpose, we select time to export and import as specific trade facilitation indicators and broadband use to study ICT impacts. Our sample covers a total of 93 countries over the period 2004–2018. By preprocessing data analysis, we impute time costs missing values, an essential shortcoming of the available databases, to study trade facilitation over time. Lastly, we employ a gravity model and implement a Bonus Vetus Estimation. Our results show that broadband use exerts a positive and significant effect on trade, especially relevant for intra-African trade flows. Furthermore, the combined effects indicate that broadband also modulates the negative impacts of time to export and time to import in the case of intra-SSA countries' trade. The more significant result is found for time to export. Our results also confirm that time costs are not only particularly harmful to intra-African trade but also negatively impact trade flows from SSA countries to the rest of the world. These outcomes show the importance of coordinating trade facilitation and digital transformation policies, particularly those devoted to digitally transforming African customs.     

日本依托区域经济一体化主导国际经贸规则制定权的战略分析

以安倍第二次出任日本首相为分水岭,起步晚、发展迅速的日本区域经济一体化战略发生了巨大的变化:由昔日高度重视通过参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来确保日本经济稳定发展的资源供给、不断开拓的海外市场转向了依托参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来主导国际经贸规则制定权。为此,安倍政府实施了以TPP/CPTPP、RCEP、中日韩FTA等区域多边贸易协定为龙头,以日欧EPA、日美贸易协定、日美数字贸易协定、日英EPA等双边自由贸易协定为两翼的区域经济一体化战略,使日本"成为在区域层面以及双边层面创造规则的国家"。     

合肥经济圈发展中的区域整合研究

经济圈内的各市的资源、产业、技术、人才等发展条件和比较优势各不尽相同,把各自优势结合起来,通过整合发展,则可以提高经济圈的整体优势和经济运行效率,降低交易成本,实现整个经济圈经济发展的整体推进。在合肥经济圈的发展中,通过整合经济圈内的发展资源,加强区域合作,则可以避免重复建设和资源浪费,实现经济圈内各城市间的优势互补和共同发展。