From imperial to regional trade preferences: Its effect on europe’s intra- and extra-regional trade

From Imperial to Regional Trade Preferences: Effect on Europe's Intra- and Extra-Regional Trade. - Europe's switch from imperial to regional trade preferences has certainly raised the share of its trade that is intra-regional, but this does not necessarily mean Europe is becoming less economically integrated with the rest of the world. This paper shows that the propensity for European GDP to be traded with non-Europeans - which trebled during the hundred years to 1928 - has fallen little since then. The reason is that the re-direction of Europe's trade has been accompanied by a considerable degree of opening up to trade with non-Europeans. Data are also presented for Eastern and Western Europe separately from 1928. The hope is that Europe's latest regional integration initiatives will be able to continue this trend, rather than lead to a “Fortress Europe” outcome.     

日本依托区域经济一体化主导国际经贸规则制定权的战略分析

以安倍第二次出任日本首相为分水岭,起步晚、发展迅速的日本区域经济一体化战略发生了巨大的变化:由昔日高度重视通过参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来确保日本经济稳定发展的资源供给、不断开拓的海外市场转向了依托参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来主导国际经贸规则制定权。为此,安倍政府实施了以TPP/CPTPP、RCEP、中日韩FTA等区域多边贸易协定为龙头,以日欧EPA、日美贸易协定、日美数字贸易协定、日英EPA等双边自由贸易协定为两翼的区域经济一体化战略,使日本"成为在区域层面以及双边层面创造规则的国家"。     

Indian Ocean Rim: Assessing the prospects for cooperation and integration

This article assesses recent events leading to the establishment in 1997 of a regional organisation for the Indian Ocean Rim, subtitled an Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR‐ARC). This is a case of ‘open’ regionalism of the functionalist kind. New members may be admitted in 1999 and, as trade integration has not been ruled out, the openness of the design may lead to the changeover from regional cooperation to regional integration after 2004. By 2003 the members of the Association for South‐East Asian Nations (Asean) of the IOR‐ARC will have free‐trade arrangements in that region and by 2004 the SADC members of the IOR‐ARC will be similarly structured, making a free‐trade scenario within the IOR almost irresistible. This will create new problems, making it very difficult for the less competitive nations to endorse their continued membership of this bloc unless project cooperation now under way makes complementarity more meaningful, equipping states and market sectors to cope better with the more competitive nature of free trade that always applies in market integration. This will pose great challenges for South Africa.     

A social network analysis of the structure and evolution of intra‐African trade

We used social network analysis to examine the country attributes and patterns of intra‐African trade between 2002 and 2017. The results showed that, generally, trade networks in Africa have become denser, and have the characteristics of the core‐periphery structure and small world phenomenon. Trade imbalances are widely found among African countries with the evidence that structure holes exist in intra‐African trade networks highlighted by the motif detectors. Using Quadratic Assignment Procedure, we found that countries that possess closer economic, geographic and cultural distance, but longer institutional distance, are more likely to form trade networks. However, many countries and the regional economic communities on the continent, have not adequately manifested these favourable characteristics for enhancing intra‐African trade. The implications are proposed that countries should develop their strategies, expedite structural adjustment, and foster competitive industries to cope with the external competition and seize opportunities of regional integration brought by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. It is also critical to efficiently address the overlapping problems of regional economic communities and intensify their coordination with AfCFTA.     

区域贸易安排的保护性:引力模型

通过2000-2005年EU、APEC、NAFTA三个区域贸易组织双边贸易流量基于合并数据的引力模型得出结论:三个区域贸易组织的净贸易效果均为贸易转移,但区域保护程度顺次减弱。总体上,发生贸易转移的方向从以发达国家为主的区域贸易组织转移到以新兴市场国家为主或由发达国家与发展中国家共同组成的区域贸易组织。因而,对内积极推行自由贸易,对外具有很强的贸易保护倾向是各国推行区域贸易政策的显著特征。     

中日韩自由贸易协定中的农产品贸易问题分析

缔结中日韩自由贸易协定是区域经济一体化的大势所趋,但由于农产品贸易的复杂性和敏感性,以及日韩两国实施的高农产品贸易壁垒,农产品贸易将是未来三国谈判必须面对的难题。三国应促进农业合作,增加区域内农产品贸易,建立解决贸易摩擦的协调机制,实现三国农业共存共生,发挥各自应有的作用,促进区域农产品贸易的稳定发展。     

Economic integration in northeast Asia: Preconditions and possible trajectories

When in November 2001, the leaders of the Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian states met for the “ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) plus three (China, Japan and Korea),” President Kim Dae‐Jung of South Korea proposed the exploration for an East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and thereby opened a new chapter of East Asian integration. The special Northeast Asian perspective on regional co‐operation became clear by the simultaneous decision to hold annual meetings of finance and trade ministers of China, Japan and Korea. At the same time, bilateral agreements, like a free trade area between Japan and Singapore, the tentative large free trade area between ASEAN and China and the work‐in‐progress on a Korean‐Japanese Free Trade Area, show the devotion and sometimes even obsession of current policy‐making with reaching regional trade agreements. Regional integration, it seems, is finally on the Northeast Asian agenda. In this paper, the preconditions and perspectives of economic integration in Northeast Asia will be explored. Since economic integration is in various ways linked to political factors, the second section discusses the geo‐political situation of Northeast Asia today. The third section deals with the economic perspectives of different forms of trade integration, followed by an analysis of various attempts for greater macro‐economic and financial co‐operation and a short conclusion.     

An appropriate model for joint regional action in southern Africa after apartheid

Market‐based integration is not appropriate to the joint development of the southern African region; the region's political, technical and institutional immaturity requires instead loose, function‐based economic cooperation. This will also facilitate intraregional trade. Subregions in the meantime could progress to higher levels of integration: international experience has shown that successful integration is most likely when it takes place on the basis of ‘regions within regions’. Cooperative development of the subcontinent is likely to be best achieved through the ‘concentric circles’ approach to regional cooperation, in which a revised Southern African Customs Union‐Common Monetary Area forms the highly integrated core of a loose, function‐based cooperative arrangement covering the whole of southern Africa.     

Measuring Multi‐Membership in Economic Integration and Its Trade Impact: A Comparative Study of ECOWAS and SADC

One of the intriguing aspects of African regional trade agreements (RTAs) is the extent of multi‐membership, where many African countries are members of more than one RTA. Using a gravity model for 25 countries and the years 1980‐2006, we measure the extent of multi‐membership and compare its impact in two major African regional blocs, Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). We find that the impact of multi‐membership critically depends on the characteristics of the multi‐membership of regional integration initiatives. We find a positive impact if an additional membership complements the integration process of the original regional integration initiative: overlapping memberships had a much stronger and significant positive effect on bilateral trade within ECOWAS compare with an insignificant impact within the SADC.     

东亚双边出口贸易流量与潜力:贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚1995-2004年面板数据建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚区域内出口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,经济规模、中国-中国香港地区更紧密经贸关系(CEPA)、中国-东盟自由贸易区(ACFTA)、经济制度、经济发展水平差距、国际直接投资、国家间地理距离和金融危机是东亚双边出口贸易流量的主要影响因素。     

论中日韩自由贸易区建立的制约因素

建立中日韩自由贸易区，既符合经济全球化与区域经济一体化迅猛发展的时代潮流，也是打破东北亚区域经济合作难以取得实质性进展的可行途径。但它的建立需要经历一个复杂而又充满挑战的过程，这主要是由于中日韩三国不仅在政治、经济方面存在着差异与差距，并且在开放各自敏感产业部门上也面临着巨大困难。美国的态度也将产生重要的影响。     

International trade and agricultural production: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community sub-region

Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries have undertaken substantial reforms in market liberalisation policies and regional integration initiatives. Theory suggests that trade can affect output through the exploitation of comparative advantage, increasing return to scale, liberalisation policies and technology. This work investigates the impact of agricultural exports to, machinery and chemical imports from and tariffs on agricultural products by total partners to the Southern African Customs' Union, SADC, sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world on agricultural production. Following Hausman tests, three panel fixed-effect models are estimated. The first is for aggregate machinery imports, chemicals imports and agricultural exports. The second is for disaggregated exports and imports according to the respective destination and source regions above. The third is for aggregate imports and disaggregated tariffs implemented by the various export destination regions toward the SADC. The results agree with the theory that international trade is good for development. Agricultural market expansion through export opportunities and access to inputs are significant sources of agricultural production enhancement in the SADC region. Tariffs barriers to agricultural exports are found to be significant impediments to agricultural production. However, the disparity of effects by export destination and the insignificance of the impact of trade with the rest of Africa are worth emphasising.     

The Future of African Trade with China under Alternative Trade Liberalization Schemes

Abstract: Evidence is gradually being built up in Africa on the full extent and rapidly growing role and interest of China in Africa. The global trade integration under the Doha Round, which is considered as the channel for fostering outward‐oriented development and generates economic and social benefits, is expected to effect more African trade with China. Our results show that with an agreement for the Doha Round, China will achieve its dominance on global trade faster than in the baseline scenario where no agreement is expected to be signed. In the long term, this impressive growth in Chinese exports to Africa is not a real value added, as China is already taking the place of the other major trade players both in African markets as well as in the markets of other regions and countries. In other words, China is expected to achieve in 10 years (2010–2020) what initially was expected to be achieved in 20 years in case of no agreement under the Doha Round, where a simple linear estimation on the evolution of Chinese exports is carried out. Our results also show that even in the case where China will offer more market access for African countries, the situation will not improve much for most of them. The reason is that Africa is still suffering from small productive capacities and a low level of diversification of its economy.     

The impact of ECOWAS on intraregional trade flows: An empirical investigation

There is a scarcity of published statistical analysis that examines the impact of economic integration schemes in Africa. This study fills the gap in the literature. The impact of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on trade flows of its member countries is examined applying an econometric analysis. The parameters of a multivariate trade-flows model are estimated using a panel data of the 1975 to 1991 period. The results suggest that the regional integration scheme has succeeded in increasing trade flows between member countries. The general view in the literature is that African integration schemes have failed to increase trade flows.     

TPP谈判及其对中美贸易的影响

由于多哈回合停滞不前和全球贸易结构尤其是服务贸易结构趋向高级化,加上美国的强力推动,全球贸易规则不断演进,TPP谈判的影响力越来越大。TPP谈判涵盖的内容非常广泛,不仅要求开放服务业,还关注贸易背后的诸如劳工和环境标准的问题,其谈判的分歧取决于谈判各方在多大程度上接受美国的贸易规则。一旦TPP施行,美国服务贸易的优势将得到增强,并且美国贸易商将获得规则上的优势。而对于中国而言,TPP的施行将给中国出口带来负面影响,但中国可以选择深度开放、加强双边或区域经济合作以及利用上海自贸区对TPP规则进行融合等方式来应对TPP的影响。     

区域经济金融合作:东亚应对全球失衡的必然选择

从中长期来看，全球国际收支失衡不断向主要几个国家和地区集中是不可持续的，东亚国家面临极大的风险。这一背景下，加强东亚区域经济金融合作是必然的选择。东亚国家和地区应完善区域合作协调机制、加强区域货币和贸易投资合作，并进一步促进亚洲债券市场发展。     

On the measurement of trade-induced adjustment

Globalisation and closer regional integration have led to significant increases in trade between nations that in turn impacts on existing long-standing trade partnerships. A consequence of changing trade patterns is an increase in the pressure for resources to reallocate between industries and sectors. This paper provides an integrated approach to the analysis of trade-induced adjustment that complements the existing literature. Adjustment pressures are documented in accordance with the theoretical underpinnings of the smooth adjustment hypothesis and satisfy a number of desirable criteria, monotonicity, consistency and country specificity. The applicability of the authors' approach is examined using UK manufacturing data. JEL no. F19     

Asian trade flows: Trends,patterns and prospects

Over the past four decades merchandise trade of developing Asian economies (DAEs) has grown at a much faster rate than growth in world trade, with a distinct intra-regional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the region's economic landscape, with China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly centre within regional production networks. According to the projections made using the standard gravity model of international trade, total real non-oil trade of DAEs would increase at an annual rate of 8.2 percent during the next three decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries’ rates to the regional average. The share of intra-regional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53 percent in 2010 to 58 percent in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4 percent and 74.4 percent between these two years.     

贸易自由化模式与中国的比较优势

对双边自由贸易组织的现实合理性及其过渡性分析发现,基于经济利益的考虑,亚洲的发展中国家和地区倾向于选择双边先行的自由贸易体制。要获得更大的贸易收益,中国必须积极主动融入到区域经济一体化进程。在贸易收益只取决于相对偏好和相对人口比例大小的条件下,中国和东盟建立自由贸易区符合国家战略的必然选择,同时中国应加快实施战略性贸易政策,扶植高新技术产业,促进经济结构升级,在东亚经济一体化进程中掌握先发的制度优势和技术优势。     

Why Doesn't Regional Integration Improve Income Convergence in Africa?*

Abstract: This paper investigates why regional integration does not improve income convergence in Africa, despite the common goal of more open and freer trade. Based on empirical analysis using African countries data, the paper presents the evidence that there has been little progress in income convergence in Africa. The paper shows that despite the importance of regional integration there has been limited progress and prospects of the African integration process are not as promising as would be expected for such an important pillar in Africa's development agenda.