Korea's Cash‐for‐Clunkers Program: Household‐Level Evidence

This paper examines the effects of a vehicle subsidy program introduced in Korea in the wake of the 2008 global recession. I adopt a simple binary choice model to approximate a household's decision to purchase a new car and identify the policy effect using a difference‐in‐difference framework in which non‐eligible households serve as the control group. The estimation results are as follows. First, the subsidy program significantly boosted the overall demand for new vehicles, increasing the average probability of a new purchase by eligible households from 7.1 to 13.9 percent. Second, beneficiaries of the subsidy program were mostly rich households and those owning relatively new cars. Finally, the program effect on aggregate vehicle sales was not quickly reversed in contrast to recent evidence on the comparable US program.     

上海市长期护理保险制度需求影响系统结构分析

上海市作为我国第一个进入老龄化的地区,其老龄化程度及发展速度都处于较高水平,社会护理压力越来越大,长期护理保险制度受到了许多学者以及上海市政策制定者的关注。文章选取影响长期护理保险制度需求的9个主要因素运用ISM方法进行分析,从而得出长期护理保险制度需求的发展趋势并寻求提高长期护理保险制度有效需求的可行之径,即建设人口均衡社会、加大宣传力度、构建可持续发展的社会保障体系、提高医疗水平。     

Provincial Development in China: Lessons from EU Regional Policy Experience

Abstract

This article evaluates and compares regional development in the Chinese provinces and in the regions of the European Union (EU) countries. Development efforts in southern Italy, northeast England and eastern Germany are reviewed along with EU, Community-wide regional development programmes. Equity concerns suggest promotion of regional policy, but the pursuit of maximum national economic growth would avoid it, since it sacrifices some economic growth. The impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic investments on individual Chinese provinces is compared with their impact in Europe. There is an implicit contrast between public sector regional development programs and more effective private foreign direct investments.     

山东省城乡居民基本医疗保险水平区域差异因子分析

基于山东省各地市的统计数据,运用SPSS17.0对山东省城乡居民基本医疗保险水平区域差异进行因子分析,结果表明山东省17地市的城乡居民基本医疗保险水平存在较为明显的差异,这与各地市的人口与医疗保障水平情况、社会经济发展情况有着密切联系。对此,提出了加快各地区经济发展、实行医疗保障服务的差别性支持、完善制度设计的建议。     

风险水平、替代性损失融资与企业保险需求——对A股制造业上市公司的经验研究

论文采用Heckman样本选择模型,以2010-2013年间A股制造业上市公司为研究样本,分析企业风险水平和替代性损失融资渠道对制造型企业保险购买可能性和购买数量的影响。研究结果表明,企业风险水平越高,保险购买可能性越大,但与之相联系的高成本制约了企业保险购买数量;企业是否购买保险与现金持有水平存在替代效应,现金持有量充足时企业更倾向于用自有资金进行损失融资,但保险购买数量与之存在依附关系,保费支付受制于现金持有水平;剩余举债能力对企业保险购买具有负面影响,在负债与保险两种损失融资方式之间,企业更倾向于前者。论文利用最新数据构建了企业可保风险水平和替代性损失融资的衡量指标,在微观层面量化研究了我国企业财产保险需求不足问题,并为企业和保险公司提供了相关决策建议。     

Innovation and Firm‐Level Productivity: Evidence from Bangladesh

In this paper, the labor productivity impact of manufacturing firms’ innovation in Bangladesh, a region which has, to date, been understudied in this respect, is examined through World Bank Enterprise Survey data from 2003 to 2006. We apply the Cobb–Douglas production function, augmented with innovation‐related inputs (and other expected sources of productivity) in a simultaneous three‐equation system connecting R&D to its determinants, innovation output to R&D, and productivity to innovation output; and in a two‐equation system connecting innovation output to its determinants and productivity to innovation output. Our results reveal that Bangladeshi firms’ process innovation is an important factor for their labor productivity, whereas the significant effect of product innovation is not clearly established.     

Internet Adoption and Financial Development in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria and Kenya

Financial development is influenced by the dynamics of multiple factors which have remained insufficiently explored up to date. In view of this, an attempt is made in this paper to investigate the impact of internet adoption on financial development in sub‐Saharan Africa, using Nigeria and Kenya as case studies. The dynamic ordinary least squares and vector error correction mechanism methods were employed in the study which revealed that the internet, complemented by financial openness, exerted a significant positive impact on financial development in the period 2000–16. The null hypothesis which states that the internet does not encourage financial development is therefore rejected. It follows that the level of financial development in both countries, and indeed most countries in sub‐Saharan Africa, could be enhanced by adopting appropriate policies that encourage more inclusive use of the internet. The policy recommendations of this study therefore include (i) relaxing the stringent requirements for licensing internet operators in order to make more services available for financial transactions, (ii) integrating internet technology into the national infrastructure framework in order to sustain its application, (iii) fostering local skills and expertise that will be maintaining internet infrastructure and (iv) providing a legal framework that protects personal information and ensures responsible usage of internet.     

城镇居民医保逆向选择问题分析:基于公共政策视角——以广西南宁市居民医保为例

城镇居民基本医疗保险政策实施以来,逆向选择现象严重,受制度性约束明显。规避逆向选择问题,需要从制度上明确界定居民医保的人群范围,扩大覆盖面,适度强制参保,提高制度吸引力。     

声誉能解决医疗保险的“双刃剑”难题吗？——来自实验的证据

医疗保险虽然有利于提高医疗卫生服务的可及性和公平性,但也滋生了严重的道德风险问题。文章基于医疗服务的信任品属性,利用实验方法刻画了商业保险和社会保险两种保险形式,并通过对比私人信息和公开信息探究了加强声誉建设对解决医疗保险“双刃剑”难题的作用。实验结果表明,首先,商业保险和社会保险均会导致医患双方的道德风险问题,且商业保险更严重。其次,声誉加强有利于缓解保险的道德风险,其作用机制在不同保险条件下有所不同。在商业保险条件下,声誉通过弥补患者的信息劣势,加大了对医生欺骗行为的约束;而在社会保险条件下,声誉在提振患者对市场的初始信心的同时,降低了患者因保险依赖而盲目交易的可能性。最后,综合医疗市场的经济效益和社会效益来看,公开信息商业保险和公开信息社会保险是两种相对高效的政策组合。     

Interest Rate Pass‐through in Malawi: Implications for the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

This study investigates the interest rate pass‐through in Malawi and its implications on monetary policy effectiveness. Using the cost‐of‐funds approach and monthly data from 2009 to 2015, an autoregressive distributed lag model is fitted. Results show that there is a near complete pass‐through to the lending rate but not the savings rate. The magnitude of the pass‐through is relatively higher under smaller banks. The results suggest that the structure of the banking industry matters. Market power is important in understanding the variation in lending and savings rates across banks. Overall, short‐term rates as operating targets are consistent with inflation targeting in Malawi.     

中国发展的中长期金融政策和策略:来自大金融史的启示

自改革开放以来,中国经济经历了前所未有的连续二十七年的高速增长.其间GDP增长幅度更超过十倍.目前中国经济规模已经超过了意大利、法国和英国,成为全球第四大经济.如以1978年为改革开放元年,我们已经看到"1978年中国经济开始面向世界,1998年中国经济已经影响世界".继续向前看,中国正面临一个重要的发展机遇,特别是加入WTO之后,这个机遇已经显得越来越明朗.以我管见,"2018年中国经济必须溶入世界,2038年中国经济可能引领世界."1]     

基础设施投融资运作模式：由政策性国企生发

组建国有政策性投融资企业作为基础设施建设的投融资主体,是目前各地在基础设施投融资的市场化改革进程中普遍采用的模式。该模式在运行过程中面临制度性缺陷和行为能力不足等障碍。应采取落实主体地位、决策过程前移、市场化拓展、项目投资合理退出等措施加以完善。     

Lessons from the 2008 Financial Crisis: Policy Responses to External Shocks in Uruguay

The 2008 global economic crisis affected the Uruguayan economy through two main channels: collapse in global trade and drop in capital flows. In response to the crisis, the Uruguayan government increased public consumption and investment and expanded social benefits to unemployed workers. We apply a computable general equilibrium model linked to microsimulations to analyze the distributional impacts of these policies and assess their effectiveness. We find that an increase in public investment was the only policy effective in mitigating the negative impact of the crisis on extreme poverty. The other policies reinforced the negative impact of the crisis on the poor. All three policies are costly and have an important impact on macroeconomic variables and the structure of production and export, while they have only slight or negative results on poverty and household income. More focalized policies, such as direct cash transfers, might have better results in terms of cost‐benefit.     

Community‐driven Development: A Viable Approach to Poverty Reduction in Rural Burkina Faso

Abstract: Various efforts by national governments, non‐governmental organizations (NGOs) and international donors have shown limited success in reducing poverty in sub‐Saharan Africa. As a result, poverty is still persistent in most households especially in rural areas. The persistence of poverty on the continent can be in part attributed to the top‐down approach to development adopted by various poverty alleviation programs. This paper focuses on poverty reduction programs in Burkina Faso and argues that a community‐driven approach to development and poverty reduction has the potential of lifting rural populations out of poverty trap.     

Developing Decentralized Capacity for Development Policy Analysis: Lessons for Agricultural Development from Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring in Malawi*

Abstract: Lack of sufficient analytical capacity in most of the developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa has been suggested frequently as a major factor determining the appropriateness of development policy interventions. This paper documents an approach implemented in Malawi for the past three years to develop decentralized capacity to analyze development policies and programs. A conceptual framework for identifying the areas of capacity strengthening in development policy analysis is developed. Generalizable lessons from Malawi's experience in decentralized capacity strengthening arc presented. Various issues that relate to enhancing the efficiency of capacity building programmes in sub-Saharan African are addressed. It is argued that continuous dialogue between development researchers and policy decisionmakers and between the trainers in academic institutions and donor agencies is fundamental for achieving the goals of improved capacity for development policy analysis. Résumé: On avance souvent que l'absence de capacité d'analyse suffisante dans la plupart des pays en développcment d'Afrique subsaharienne constitue l'un des facteurs qui conditionne l'opportunité des interventions en matière de politique de développement. Ce document présente unc approche mise en ocuvre au Malawi au cours des trois dernières années en vuc de développer la capacité décentralisée à analyser les politiques et programmes de développement. Il met au point un cadre conceptuel pour l'identification des domaines nécessitant un appui institutionnel au niveau de 1'analysc des politiques de développement. Des leçons susceptibles d'être généralisées sont tirées de l'expérience du Malawi en matière de renforcement de la capacité décentralisée. Diverses questions ayant trait à l'amélioration de l'efficacité des programmes de renforcement des capacités en Afrique subsaharienne sont abordées. Il est avancé que le dialogue permanent entre chercheurs s'intéressant au développcment et décideurs, et entre formateurs des institutions académiques et organismes d'aide est essentielle pour atteindrc l'objectif d'amélioration de la capacité d'analyse des politiques de développement.     

我国新型农村合作医疗保障水平测量和适宜度研究

文章构建了我国新型农村合作医疗保障水平的测量模型,运用该模型对我国当前新型农村合作医疗保障水平进行测定,计算保障水平的实际值。同时计算保障水平的上限值与下限值,以判断保障水平是否适宜。结果表日片,保障水平的实际值小于其下限值,这就意味着我国当前的保障水平低于应有的保障水平。为此文章提出,可以通过加大政府和农村集体经济组织的补助资金、合理设定补偿比例、完善二次补偿方案等措施采提高我国新型农村合作医疗保障水平。