A Cournot–Nash Model of Family Decision Making

This paper models a two-person family. Each family member is utility maximising, yet family members are interdependent because of caring and public goods within the family. The two family members' interdependent utility maximisation problems are first solved using a non-cooperative, or Cournot–Nash, game theoretic framework. The Cournot–Nash equilibrium is then used as a threat point in a bargaining game. The paper provides a rigorous derivation of the properties of household demands, a full analysis of the determinants of intra-household resource allocation, including the effect of varying household bargaining power, and consideration of policy implications.     

管理会计决策研究的行为学视角

传统管理会计研究以主流经济学为理论基础,醉心于构建模型,忽视对管理会计实践的深入研究,理论与实践脱节的现象在管理会计领域表现得尤为突出。近年来,西方学界越来越多的引入行为学、心理学等相关理论研究现实管理会计问题,本文借鉴已有研究成果,在行为学视角下探讨管理会计决策的理论基础及特征。     

自组织团队的群决策过程模型研究

以自组织团队的群决策过程的组织方式和基本机理为研究对象,根据自组织团队的特点,系统分析了自组织团队群决策的特征,结合有关群决策组织过程的研究文献,按照复杂自适应理论,针对自组织团队遇到的复杂非结构化问题,建立了自组织团队群决策过程模型,并用案例验证了该模型的有效性。     

期权定价理论在风险投资决策中的应用探析

鉴于风险投资决策传统方法的局限性及风险投资的期权特性,根据金融期权的定价方法,引出实物期权的定价公式。通过计算风险投资项目中实物期权的价值,比较分析NPV法与实物期权定价法的差异,可得出在风险投资中引入实物期权的思想,对风险投资者作出正确的投资决策,以及对风险资本的保值增值有重大的指导意义。     

基于区间数的科研设备招标的多属性决策模型

针对军口863项目大型科研设备招标的特点,结合目前多属性决策问题的研究方法,建立了一种多属性决策招标模型。首先借助区间数理论和熵理论确定了各属性的区间数权重,接着给出决策方案的综合评价值,然后给出了带有可能度的方案排序,最后在此基础上进行了实例分析。     

新时期的投资策略

无论何时何地，投资都是推动经济增长和经济发展的重要力量，从战略角度而言，投资的基本功能不变，而从战术角度而言，投资应当与时俱进，有所变化，本从投资和消费、近期效应和中长期目标、基础设施和高新技术、投资规模和投资效益，政府行为和市场机制五个方面全方位，多视角地论述了新时期的投资策略。     

考虑退货风险的BOPS全渠道供应链定价与决策研究

针对事前不确定性的退货问题,文章分别构建考虑退货风险的双渠道模式和BOPS(线上购买、线下取货)模式供应链博弈模型,探讨在传统双渠道模式基础上引入BOPS模式是否对供应链各成员和整体总是有好处,并分析退货率、线下渠道消费者忠诚度对双渠道模式和BOPS模式最优价格和服务决策和利润的影响.研究表明:供应链系统总是偏好BOPS模式,而制造商和零售商的偏好取决于线上、线下消费者顾客忠诚度;制造商在线下消费者比例较高,且退货率较高时适合采用BOPS模式;零售商在线下消费者比例较低,且退货率较低时适合采用BOPS模式;线上、线下的产品定价和SA努力服务水平不仅要考虑服务成本还要考虑退货率和线下渠道消费者忠诚度.     

Trade Policy in the Presence of Technology Licensing*

We consider strategic trade policy when a high‐cost and a low‐cost firm belonging to two different countries compete in quantities in a third country, and technology is transferable via licensing. We characterize the effects of subsidies on (i) licensing payments—a new source of rents, (ii) the decision to license, and (iii) the subsidy bill difference (compared to when licensing is infeasible). We find that, in the presence of licensing, optimal strategic trade policy has several interesting features. For example, even under Cournot competition, optimal policy can be an export tax instead of an export subsidy. Also, unlike results in strategic trade policy with asymmetric costs, we find that optimal export subsidies are not necessarily positively related to the cost‐competitiveness of firms. In other words, governments need not necessarily favor “winners” when licensing is possible. Furthermore, there exist parameterizations such that a government, if it can, might ban licensing.     

Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making

The main objectives of this paper are: (i) To give a pithy, opinionated summary of what has been learned about bounded rationality in individual decision making from experiments in economics and psychology (drawing on my 1995 Handbook of Experimental Economics chapter); and (ii) mention some promising new directions for research which would be included if that chapter were written today.     

基于QFD的供电服务改进优化决策方法

在现有供电服务品质评价研究的基础上,基于＂面向顾客满意的供电服务模式改进＂目标,提出质量功能展开（QFD）在供电企业服务改进中的应用模型。基于顾客服务感知的相关理论,并结合供电企业业务分类,建立顾客需求-技术指标质量屋。结合国家电网公司2007年度供电服务品质评价的相关工作,对已建立的QFD模型进行应用性研究,对供电服务项目的进行优先改进排序。研究结果表明,该方法可以有效确定影响顾客满意度的关键因素,从而帮助电力企业在企业资源有限的情况下更好地进行决策。     

贷款管理决策中的算法分析

商业银行的经营管理,首先是决策管理。正确的决策必须建立在大量搜集、整理、加工和 运用各方面有关信息的基础之上。贷款作为商业银行的主营业务,是银行取得利润的主要途径, 因此,合理分析贷款投向。及时防范贷款风险是银行信贷决策的重要内容。本文从贷款管理及其 决策过程入手,介绍了贷款决策分析方法,并以现金流量为例详细讨论了在贷款决策分析过程中 采用的预测算法。同时对使用效果作了评价。     

Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Background Risk

In this paper, we focus on how the presence of background risks – from sources such as labour and entrepreneurial income – influences portfolio allocations. This interaction is explored in a theoretical model that is calibrated using cross-sectional data from a variety of sources. The model is shown to be consistent with some but not all aspects of cross-sectional observations of portfolio holdings. The paper also provides a survey of the extensive theoretical and empirical literature on portfolio choice.     

Risk Pooling in the Presence of Moral Hazard

The size of an insurance pool that minimizes average risk per policy is derived for cases in which moral hazard offsets the benefits of pooling.     

战略决策过程研究:一个综合分析框架

以战略决策过程为研究对象,整合关于战略过程研究和高管特征与决策过程关系的研究成果,构建了企业战略决策过程的一个综合分析框架。该分析框架可以为将来的进一步实证研究提供基础,对于企业寻找提高战略决策效果的具体途径也具有一定的启发意义。     

A Decision Making Framework for Portfolio Selection in Private Equity Investments

International Advances in Economic Research -     

Terms of Trade Indices in the Presence of Re-Export Trade*

This paper shows how the index of the commodity terms of trade as ordinarily constructed should be adjusted to take account of re-exports in the broad sense of the use of intermediate inputs in export activities which had been imported. The neglect of this adjustment produces indices which generally overstate the movement of the terms of trade. An empirical study of Singapore suggests that the bias may be substantial.     

A Model of Trade Liberalization in Services*

This paper develops an intra‐industry service trade model taking into account important features of services. We find that service trade liberalization between identical economies is welfare enhancing when the pre‐trade domestic market liberalization is limited. This holds regardless of the degree of trade liberalization and of the mode of supply. However, if the pre‐trade environment is characterized by a free‐entry equilibrium, then service trade liberalization is not necessarily welfare improving. It is welfare enhancing if the trade liberalization is full and the mode of supply is cross‐border. The gain from trade in our model comes from the improvement in service quality—better matching between consumers’ ideal varieties and firms’ product specificity. The implications for the mode of supply in service trade are also explored.     

A Model of Reputation in Cheap Talk*

We study a dynamic game of advice where the sender's preferences are unknown to the receiver. The novel feature of the model is that there is more than one type of biased sender. We show that the more equal the proportions of different biases in the sender population, the greater the credibility of the information transmitted. Somewhat surprisingly, however, we also find that the receiver does not benefit from this equality. We discuss our results in the context of political lobbying and show that institutions that increase transparency lower lobbyists' incentives for truthtelling, but unambiguously promote the policymaker's welfare.     

Monetary Union and Pegging in the Presence of Labor Unions*

As the European Economic and Monetary Union grows, power over monetary policy is shifting away from the original founders. Previously, researchers have analyzed the impact of replacing an exchange‐rate peg with a monetary union in the presence of labor unions. In these studies, the authors have consistently concluded that unemployment in the country that originally controlled monetary policy will rise, although they cite very different reasons. In this paper, we present a more general model that reproduces the previous results in special cases and clarifies the relations across the results. In addition, the more general model shows that the results are reversed in certain conditions.