INTERACTIONS BETWEEN WELFARE CASELOADS AND LOCAL LABOR MARKETS

This paper provides an empirical examination of interactions between welfare caseloads and local labor markets using data on caseload stocks, entries, and exits. Granger‐causality tests show that unemployment rates Granger‐cause caseload activity but caseload activity does not Granger‐cause unemployment rates. The results also reveal differential dynamics between caseloads and labor market conditions for rural versus metropolitan markets. Several models of one‐way association between caseload activity and unemployment rates are presented. The results show that higher unemployment rates are positively associated with welfare caseloads and entries and negatively related to exits. (JEL I38, R23)     

劳动力流动对城市劳动力市场的影响

本文使用2005年1%人口抽样调查数据,考察了在我国大中城市中,劳动力流动对本地劳动者就业率和工资的影响。我们发现,外来劳动力对城市本地劳动力的就业率和工资均具有统计上显著的负向作用,但是影响的规模非常小。对于全部教育组平均而言,外来劳动力每增加10%,城市本地劳动力的就业率下降0.3%,工资下降0.65%;对于中低教育水平(高中及以下)的城市本地劳动力而言,外来劳动力的影响程度相对高一些,但是仍然不算大。另外,我们发现,外来劳动力对本地职工工资的影响,要大于对就业率的影响,说明城市本地劳动力对于外来劳动力存在有限的反应,主要体现在降低保留工资,而非放弃工作机会。     

国有企业、劳动力冗员与就业的增长-1986-1996年期间中国各省的经验

对于决定国有企业劳动力过剩和就业岗位的因素,人们所知甚少.这种知识上的差距使得决策者很难为中国劳动力冗员问题对症下药.该文运用1986-1996年中国各省的数据来对这个问题进行具体的估计.我们发现:(1)释放所有剩余劳动力将会使城市平均失业率升至25%;(2)国有企业劳动力过剩被证明是创造就业岗位的主要障碍;(3)创造就业岗位绩效主要由诸如国有企业劳动力过剩、受教育程度、铁路里程、与港口的距离等结构性交量来解释;(4)相反地,诸如GDP增长率、贸易依存度、外国直接投资(FDI)流入等需求变量的解释力度则不强.     

A THEORY OF WAGES AND LABOR DEMAND WITH INTRA‐FIRM BARGAINING AND MATCHING FRICTIONS*

This article provides a model of labor market equilibrium with search and within‐firm strategic bargaining. We yield explicit closed form solutions with heterogeneous labor inputs and capital. The solution exhibits overemployment. We show that higher relative bargaining power for some groups of workers may lead to overemployment relative to other groups, with such other groups being underemployed instead if they have a lower relative bargaining power. Similarly, the hold‐up problem between capitalists and employees does not necessarily lead to underinvestment in physical capital.     

EFFICIENT LEARNING AND JOB TURNOVER IN THE LABOR MARKET

This article nests a continuous‐time learning model la Jovanovic (Journal of Political Economy 92 (1984), 108–22) into a directed on‐the‐job search framework. We prove that the socially efficient allocation is separable, that is, the workers' value functions and optimal controls are independent of both the distribution of workers across their current match qualities and the unemployment rate. We characterize the dynamics of job transitions in the efficient allocation. Furthermore, when the matching technology is linear, our numerical results show that increasing the vacancy creation cost and the speed of learning have ambiguous effects on the unemployment rate and aggregate job transition.     

THE PRICING OF JOB CHARACTERISTICS WHEN MARKETS DO NOT CLEAR: THEORY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS*

This article examines nonsequential search when jobs vary with respect to nonpecuniary characteristics. In the presence of frictions in the labor market, the equilibrium job distribution need not show evidence of compensating wage differentials. The model also generates several pervasive features of labor markets: unemployment and vacancies, apparent discrimination, and market segmentation. When workers are homogeneous, restrictions on the range of job offers decrease welfare and cannot reduce unemployment. However, when workers have heterogeneous preferences, such restrictions may lower unemployment, and can even lead to a Pareto improvement in welfare. We consider the impact of policies banning discrimination and regulating working conditions.     

对外贸易、地方保护和中国的产业布局

本文研究发现,20世纪80年代由于新旧工业基地的轮替,地区专业化和分布的不平衡性稍有退化;而90年代地区专业化则显著加深,分布的不平衡性和集中程度明显加速。对外贸易中的地理优势显著地影响中国的产业布局,但地方保护的影响在90年代仅限于内地。传统比较优势理论在中国产业分布中的解释力是显然的,而新经济地理学的部分预测也在本文的实证中得到支持。     

LABOR MARKETS AND HEALTH BENEFITS: THE OFFER AND RESTRICTIONS ON IT

This study argues that a multidimensional health benefit offer (i.e., offers of medical, dental, sick leave, or vision benefits) and the hours or tenure restrictions placed on it are affected by the relative demand for workers in the local labor market. Using the Bay Area Longitudinal Surveys (BALS), a database of low-skilled jobs, we show that an excess labor demand for workers' skills increases the firm's offer of health benefits and reduces the restrictions on them, while an excess labor supply increases restrictions. These findings suggest that research assessing the correlation between wages, skills, and whether or not a firm offers health insurance might understate the plight of the low-skilled worker since health care access may also be restricted by a failure to receive an array of health benefits and by the restrictions placed on the offer. Furthermore, public policies might place the issues of uninsurance of low-wage workers within the context of a lack of marketable skills since low-skilled workers might be able to enhance their ability to secure jobs that offer an array of health benefits if they acquire skills in short supply in the local labor market. ( JEL J3)     

转型经济下中国的城市失业及劳动力流动

本文的目的是要建立一个关于劳动力流动的模型。用模型解释劳动者在城乡间的迁移行为,也将解释各省的城乡收入差别是如何影响各省的失业率。在中国的统计数据中,关注的常常是那些有着当地户口的居民。而在本文里,模型不仅深入分析了当地居民的劳动力市场,还分析了农村外来人口的劳动力市场。而且文章不仅对劳动力市场进行了的理论化,模型化的分析,还进行了深入的实证检验。文中的实证研究关注了年龄为16—25岁的年轻劳动者。因为这些年轻的劳动者通常刚刚离开学校,所以关于他们失业的统计数据不会因为没有考虑到大量的下岗工人而存在巨大的偏差。     

FUTURES MARKETS AND BUBBLE FORMATION IN EXPERIMENTAL ASSET MARKETS*

Abstract. We construct asset markets of the type studied in Smith et al. (1988) , in which price bubbles and crashes are widely observed. In addition to a spot market, there are futures markets in operation, one maturing at the beginning of each period of the life of the asset. We find that when futures markets are present, bubbles do not occur in the spot markets. The futures markets seem to reduce the speculation and the decision errors that appear to give rise to price bubbles in experimental asset markets.     

CAREER CONCERNS,MATCHING, AND OPTIMAL DISCLOSURE POLICY*

Raiders may suffer from information disadvantage since the current employer is often better informed about his workers' quality. When workers have career concerns and matching influences productivity, the initial employer can strategically disclose information to influence incentives and matching efficiency. Long‐term complete contracts induce full disclosure when raiders are perfectly competitive. The optimal short‐term contract induces full disclosure if raiders are perfectly competitive, and the workers are risk neutral and are not liquidity constrained. These conditions are not only sufficient but also “almost necessary” for full disclosure. Partial disclosure may be optimal if any of these conditions is relaxed.     

DRIFTING APART: CANADIAN AND U.S. LABOR MARKETS

Canadian and U.S. unemployment rates moved together within a narrow margin from 1961 to the mid-1970s. Since then, Canadian rates have exceeded U.S. rates by large margins—at times as much as 3 percentage points. Throughout this period, interest rates in the two countries have been nearly identical. Aggregate demand stimulation by government deficits has been greater in Canada than in the U.S., and the trade surplus in Canada has added to demand while the trade deficit in the U.S. has subtracted from demand. Therefore, it seems that conventional Keynesian arguments cannot explain the recent differences in unemployment rates.
Differences in labor market developments, however, can do so. During a period when real wages rose 35 percent in Canada, they fell 5 percent in the U.S. Since the recession of 1981, U.S. wages have dropped while Canadian wages have remained constant. Differences in labor productivity do not account for these developments. A strong case exists for the argument that the different paths of unemployment rates are due to different paths of real wage developments.
It is argued that the causes for these differences in labor market conditions are associated with substantial growth and decreases in unionization rates in Canada and the U.S., respectively. In addition, the unemployment insurance system in Canada is shown to be considerably more generous than that in the U.S.     

THE ROLE OF LABOR AND MARRIAGE MARKETS,PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY,AND THE WELFARE SYSTEM IN THE LIFE CYCLE DECISIONS OF BLACK,HISPANIC, AND WHITE WOMEN*

Using data from the NLSY79, we structurally estimate a dynamic model of the life cycle decisions of young women. The women make sequential joint decisions about school attendance, work, marriage, fertility, and welfare participation. We use the model to perform counterfactual simulations designed to shed light on three questions: (1) How much of observed minority–majority differences in behavior can be attributed to differences in labor market opportunities, marriage market opportunities, and preference heterogeneity? (2) How does the welfare system interact with these factors to augment those differences? (3) How can new cohorts that grow up under the new welfare system (Temporary Aid for Needy Families) be expected to behave compared to older cohorts?     

PUBLIC ENTERPRISES AND LABOR MARKET PERFORMANCE*

This article shows that state control of some industries may have contributed to the increase in European unemployment from the 1970s to the early 1990s. We develop a simple two‐sector model, one privately run and one publicly run, that has risk‐averse workers directing their search into one of the sectors. Assuming that the privately run sector is less able to insure its employees against uncertainty, we show that aggregate unemployment in this economy increases in response to an increase in economic turbulence.