Evolution of price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of price effects after one-day abnormal returns and their evolution in the US stock market, using Dow Jones Index over the period 1890–2018. We utilise several statistical tests and econometric methods (the modified cumulative abnormal return approach, regression analysis with dummy variables, R/S analysis (Hurst, 1951), and the trading simulation approach). The results suggest that a strong momentum effect between 1940 and 1980 after a day of positive abnormal returns was present in the US stock market, and it was exploitable for profit. However, after the 1980s this has since disappeared. Overall, price effects after one-day abnormal returns during the analysed period tend to be unstable in terms of their strength and direction (momentum or contrarian effect). Nowadays, the evidence for the price effects after one-day abnormal returns in the US stock market is weak. Our results, therefore, are consistent with the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (Lo, 2004).     

An investigation of causality between insider transactions and stock returns

Prior research shows that corporate insiders engage in profitable transactions by trading securities of their own firms. The main purpose of this study is to examine whether insider transactions and stock returns have causality relationships at the firm level for a sample of 2,521 firms during the period 1988 to 1998. We find a large impact of stock returns on subsequent insider transactions at both the aggregate and firm levels. The impact appears to be negative which suggests that insiders buy after stock price decreases and sell after stock price increases. Our findings on the predictive content of insider transactions for subsequent stock returns are primarily consistent with prior literature. We observe a positive but weak relationship between insider transactions and future stock returns.     

Economic policy uncertainty,oil price volatility and stock market returns: Evidence from a nonlinear model

This paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between economic policy uncertainty, oil price volatility and stock market returns for 25 countries by applying the panel smooth transition regression model. We find that oil price volatility has a negative effect on stock returns, and this effect increases with economic policy uncertainty. Furthermore, there is pronounced heterogeneity in responses. First, oil-exporting countries whose economies depend more on oil prices respond more strongly to oil price volatility than oil-importing countries. Second, stock returns of developing countries are more susceptible to oil price volatility than that of developed countries. Third, crisis plays a crucial role in the relation between oil price volatility and stock returns.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: New evidence

This paper investigates the predictive performance of the Chinese economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index constructed by Davis, Liu, and Sheng (2019) in forecasting the returns of China’s stock market. Using the univariate and bivariate predictive regression model, we confirm that the monthly EPU index can significantly and negatively impact the next month’s stock returns, and has better out-of-sample predictability than the existing EPU index and several macroeconomic variables. By comparing the forecasting effect of the EPU index before and during special events with sharply increased uncertainty, we find that the EPU’s forecasting power decline rapidly when an event of sharply increased uncertainty occurs. Finally, our conclusions are consistent through a batch of robustness tests.     

Corporate governance and stock price crash risk: Evidence from Taiwan

Managers are likely to withhold negative news to protect their own interests. When they can no longer withhold such news, extreme negative returns and a stock price crash (SPC) follow. This study explores whether a favorable corporate governance (CG) mechanism helps reduce SPC risk. The findings reveal that CG affects SPC risk. Moreover, the effects of institutional ownership, board size, and disclosure violation frequency are particularly significant in family-owned businesses. We also examine the effectiveness of CG evaluation (CGE) in Taiwan and discover that companies with high rankings are substantially less likely to encounter an SPC. This study verifies that CGE can be considered an indicator of SPC risk.     

Economic policy and the presidential election cycle in stock returns

Many papers in the academic literature have documented a “Presidential Election” cycle in stock returns. Prior literature also documents that stock returns appear to be influenced by economic policy. The goal of this study is to examine the tools of fiscal and monetary policy to test for the presence of a presidential election cycle. The findings strongly suggest that the presidential election cycle in stock returns and the government’s economic policy influence on stock returns are two separate phenomena. Moreover, it is much more likely that stock returns are influencing economic policy rather than the other way around. However, the findings also suggest that tax legislation may drive the Presidential Election Cycle.     

Information disclosure ratings and managerial short-termism: An empirical investigation of the Chinese stock market

Information asymmetry between managers and outside investors creates agency problems and impedes efficient capital allocation. Information disclosure is critical in alleviating information asymmetry in capital markets. This study investigates the effect of information asymmetry on managerial short-termism by examining information disclosure ratings (IDRs). Using real earnings management as a proxy for managerial short-termism, our analysis of a sample of Chinese A-share companies during 2001–2018 indicates that high IDRs mitigate managerial short-termism. The results also indicate that the effect of IDRs in reducing managerial short-termism is driven mainly by stock liquidity. This conclusion holds after consideration of endogeneity and application of two-stage least-squares and generalized method of moments methods, adjustment of the definition of IDRs, consideration of alternative proxies for managerial short-termism, and control for firm characteristics that might affect the extent of managerial short-termism. This study also examines the effects within three subsamples: companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange main board, small and medium enterprise board, and growth enterprise market board. IDRs substantially reduce managerial short-termism among firms listed on all three boards. These findings indicate that enterprises have corrected previous internal governance problems, and IDRs have helped to improve internal governance through stock liquidity. Therefore, external supervision also helps to reduce the agency problem of managerial short-termism.

     

Forecasting abnormal stock returns and trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from online search

We examine the ability of online ticker searches (e.g. XOM for Exxon Mobil) to forecast abnormal stock returns and trading volumes. Specifically, we argue that online ticker searches serve as a valid proxy for investor sentiment — a set of beliefs about cash flows and investment risks that are not necessarily justified by the facts at hand — which is generally associated with less sophisticated, retail investors. Based on prior research on investor sentiment, we expect online search intensity to forecast stock returns and trading volume, and also expect that highly volatile stocks, which are more difficult to arbitrage, will be more sensitive to search intensity than less volatile stocks. In a sample of S&P 500 firms over the period 2005-2008, we find that, over a weekly horizon, online search intensity reliably predicts abnormal stock returns and trading volumes, and that the sensitivity of returns to search intensity is positively related to the difficulty of a stock being arbitraged. More broadly, our study highlights the potential of employing online search data for other forecasting applications.     

Corporate environmental marketing: An environmental marketing action model

A model of environmental marketing action and success is proposed, which includes a range of variables and examines the relationship between them. Environmental success is partly determined by the level of Environmental Marketing Action which varies between level 0 and level 8 and which directly determines the extent of environmental marketing success. Perceptions of environmental consciousness, the subjective norm and net total risk determine the level of environmental marketing action. Beliefs with regard to stakeholders and events and the motivation to comply with these beliefs combine to form the subjective norm.     

Individual stock sentiment beta and stock returns

Using the data in Chinese stock market, we measure the individual stock sentiment beta, which is defined as the sensitivity of individual stock returns to the individual stock sentiment changes. We demonstrate that stocks in the highest individual stock sentiment beta portfolio have significantly higher excess returns, CAPM alpha, Fama-French three-factor alpha and Fama-French five-factor alpha. Besides, we find that the high individual stock sentiment beta stocks are smaller, younger, more volatile stocks with higher price and higher market beta. After controlling for firm characteristic, the returns of High-Low individual stock sentiment beta portfolios are still significantly positive. Moreover, we show the effect of the individual stock sentiment beta on stock returns is positive and significant in different stock markets, in different sample periods, and in bull and bear market. Besides, the results of the Bayes-Stein individual stock sentiment beta are still stable.     

An empirical investigation of environmental performance and the market value of the firm

This paper analyzes the shareholder value effects of environmental performance by measuring the stock market reaction associated with announcements of environmental performance. We examine the market reaction to two categories of environmental performance. The first category includes 417 announcements of Corporate Environmental Initiatives (CEIs) that provide information about self-reported corporate efforts to avoid, mitigate, or offset the environmental impacts of the firm's products, services, or processes. The second category includes 363 announcements of Environmental Awards and Certifications (EACs) that provide information about recognition granted by third-parties specifically for environmental performance. Although the market does not react significantly to the aggregated CEI and EAC announcements, we find statistically significant market reactions for certain CEI and EAC subcategories. Specifically, announcements of philanthropic gifts for environmental causes are associated with significant positive market reaction, voluntary emission reductions are associated with significant negative market reaction, and ISO 14001 certifications are associated with significant positive market reaction. The difference between the market reactions to the CEI and EAC categories is statistically insignificant. Overall, the market is selective in reacting to announcements of environmental performance with certain types of announcements even valued negatively.     

Firm efficiency and stock returns

In this paper, we investigate the role of firm efficiency in asset pricing using a sample of US publicly listed companies for the period 1988–2007. We employ non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) on various input/output combinations, focusing on sales and market value as output measures in the construction of the frontier technologies. Using these performance measures, we examine whether efficient firms perform differently from inefficient firms following standard financial analysis procedures. First, we employ performance attribution regressions, by forming portfolios based on efficiency scores and tracking the performance of the various portfolios over time. Second, we perform cross-sectional/panel regressions to determine whether firm efficiency indeed has explanatory power for the cross-section of stock returns. Our results suggest that firm efficiency plays an important role in asset pricing and that efficient firms significantly outperform inefficient firms even after controlling for known risk factors.     

Monetary policy announcements and stock reactions: An international comparison

This article investigates the impact of domestic monetary policy rate announcements on the stock markets of New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom and the euro area, using event-study methods to identify stock price reactions to the unanticipated/surprise component of announcements. As Australia and New Zealand did not reach the zero bound we investigate whether there is an impact from the global financial crisis on stock market reactions that can be distinguished from the asymmetric reactions to surprises that characterise the business cycle. We find that the euro area and the UK both show a financial crisis effect but behaviour in New Zealand and Australia does not change. We conduct robustness checks and explore confounding factors, especially the impact of ‘guidance’ from central banks that prepares markets for policy rate changes.     

Wage gradients,rent gradients,and the price elasticity of demand for housing: An empirical investigation

As developed in Muth's “Cities and Housing,” attainment of locational equilibrium within an urban area implies a necessary functional correspondence between wage and price gradients and the compensated price elasticity of demand for housing. In this paper estimates of the rent and wage gradients are utilized to generate price-elasticity estimates via this equilibrium correspondence. The Box-Cox transformation technique is used with data from the metropolitan Chicago area to test for the functional forms of the wage and rent gradients. The optimal maximum-likelihood functional forms for both gradients yield a price-elasticity estimate of ?0.40.     

The Cartagena Declaration,the Baker Plan,and U.S. bank security returns: An empirical investigation

This paper examines the impact of the Cartagena Declaration by 11 Latin American countries and the Baker Plan for resolving the LDC debt problem on the security returns of major U.S. banks. An event parameter approach is employed to investigate two hypotheses, the new-information and the rational-pricing hypotheses, using daily stock market data. Sample banks are grouped into three portfolios depending on their LDC exposure. The results indicate that bank stock returns adjust quickly to new information. Also, there is rational investor reaction to observed events that were neither borrower- nor lender-induced. Those banks displaying greater exposure to LDC loans were affected in a direct and proportionately greater manner.     

Dynamic relationships between industry returns and stock market returns

Different from prior studies which concentrate on the unidirectional impact of industry leading, this study examines the bi-directional dynamical causal relation between industry returns and stock market returns by considering multiple structural breaks for ten major eastern and southern Asia countries. Our results show that finance and consumer service industry returns have significant power in explaining the movements of market returns. Further, we apply logit regressions to explore the determinants of the leading hypotheses and find exchange rate and interest rate are important in explaining the industry–market nexus. In a developed market the industry and the market have feedback relations, but in a highly controlled economy the influence from the stock market dominates.     

Earnings and stock returns: evidence from Germany

Past research in the US indicates that stock prices and earnings per share are related. Evidence pertaining to this relationship in other countries is not as extensive. This paper extends two recent studies focusing on Germany, and provides additional information concerning the important informative role played by DVFA earnings. DVFA earnings are a metric jointly constructed by the Deutscher Vereinigung für Finanzanalyse und Anlageberatung and the Schmalenbach-Gesellschaftwith the purpose of providing investors and others interested in share value with a more meaningful measure of economic income than the traditional published earnings figure     

Time-varying impact of monetary policy shocks on US stock returns: The role of investor sentiment

This paper investigates how monetary policy shock affects the stock market of the United States (US) conditional on states of investor sentiment. In this regard, we use a recently developed estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks, which in turn is achieved by integrating the current short-term rate surprises, which are least affected by an information effect, into a vector autoregressive (VAR) model as an exogenous variable. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, we find that, compared to the low investor sentiment regime, the negative reaction of stock returns to contractionary monetary policy shocks is stronger in the state associated with relatively higher investor sentiment. Our results are robust to alternative sample period (which excludes the zero lower bound) and model specification and also have important implications for academicians, investors, and policymakers.     

The customer consequences of returns in online retailing: An empirical analysis

Pressure continues to build on the operations management function to facilitate system and firm level benefits. In the online marketplace, one area of growing interest is that of product returns. Though commonly viewed as a cost center from an operations perspective, operations’ actions have the potential to strongly influence future customer buying behavior in several ways. Using an archival database of actual purchase and returns history provided by a moderately sized online retailer, this study examines the relationship between a customer's experience of product returns, and subsequent shopping behavior. Employing transaction cost, consumer risk, and procedural justice theories, we demonstrate that the returns management process, rather than being regarded as an afterthought to the production and deployment of goods, can significantly and positively influence repurchase behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that certain customers should be considered for prioritization in the returns process. We suggest ways through which operations managers can take care in discharging their responsibilities in this area – to make returns processing more than simply a “necessary cost of doing business” rather, using it to their advantage in engendering repeat and increased purchase behavior.     

Overnight stock returns and realized volatility

The information flow in modern financial markets is continuous, but major stock exchanges are open for trading for only a limited number of hours. No consensus has yet emerged on how to deal with overnight returns when calculating and forecasting realized volatility in markets where trading does not take place 24 hours a day. Based on a recently introduced formal testing procedure, we find that for the S&P 500 index, a realized volatility estimator that optimally incorporates overnight information is more accurate in-sample. In contrast, estimators that do not incorporate overnight information are more accurate for individual stocks. We also show that accounting for overnight returns may affect the conclusions drawn in an out-of-sample horserace of forecasting models. Finally, there is considerably less variation in the selection of the best out-of-sample forecasting model when only the most accurate in-sample RV estimators are considered.