A note on the hidden risk of inflation

The continued expansionary policy of the Federal Reserve gives rise to speculation whether the Fed will be able to maintain price stability in the coming decades. Most of the scientific work relating money to prices relies on broad monetary aggregates (i.e. M₂ for the United States). In our paper, we argue that this view falls short. The historically unique monetary expansion has not yet fully reached M₂. Using a cointegration approach, we aim to show the hidden risks for the future development of M₂ and correspondingly prices. In a simulation analysis we show that even if the multiplier remains substantially below its pre-crisis level, M₂ will exceed its current growth path with a probability of 95%.     

Stochastic and structural fiscal policy in a monetary stationary economy

In the framework of a monetary asset pricing model which is simple enough to generate closed form formulae for equilibrium price functions the interactions between output, fiscal policy, and asset markets is investigated. With money yielding liquidity services in the exchange process real stock prices are negatively correlated with anticipated (stochastic) fiscal policy changes, while the impact of unanticipated (structural) fiscal policy on the stock market depends qualitatively on the ‘business cycle’ of the economy. It is shown that the monetary character of the economy, more precisely the role of money in the exchange process, is critical for the relationship between fiscal policy and real share prices. Moreover, while contingent fiscal policy measures may be successful in stabilizing the real interest rate on money they are incapable of achieving a stable term structure of the real rate on stocks. In contrast, uncontingently higher public expenditures generally promote the volatility of the real rates on financial assets.     

Does money have a role in the inflation process? Evidence from Australia

Inflation, defined as a sustained increase in the price level, is considered a monetary phenomenon, as it can be explained within the framework of money‐demand and money‐supply relationships. In the extant literature, money growth is shown to remain causally related to inflation across countries and over time, irrespective of the exchange rate regime and stability of the money‐demand function. Nevertheless, emerging literature suggests a diminishing role of money in the conduct of monetary policy for price stability, especially under inflation targeting. Monetary policy in Australia under inflation targeting since 1993 is an example of policy that denies a relationship between money growth and inflation. The proposition that money does not matter insofar as inflation is concerned seems odd in both theory and the best‐practice monetary policy for price stability. This paper uses annual data for the period 1970–2017 and quarterly data for the period 1970Q1–2015Q1. It deploys both the Johansen cointegration approach and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration approach to investigate for Australia whether money, real output, prices and the exchange rate (non‐stationary variables) maintain the long‐run price‐level relationship that the classical monetary theory suggests in the presence of such stationary variables as the domestic and foreign interest rates. As expected, the empirical findings for Australia are consistent with the classical long‐run price‐level relationship between money, real output, prices and the exchange rate. The error‐correction model of inflation confirms the presence of a cointegral relationship among these variables; it also provides strong evidence of a short‐run causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation. On the basis of a priori theoretical predictions and empirical findings, the paper draws the conclusion that the monetary aggregate and its growth rate matter insofar as inflation is concerned, irrespective of the strategy of monetary policy for price stability.     

A simple model for study of the determination of the price level and the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy

Summary A representative-agent model with money holdings motivated by transactions costs, a fiscal authority that taxes and issues debt, no production, and a convenient functional form for agents' utility is presented. The model can be solved analytically, and illustrates the dependence of price determination on fiscal policy, the possibility of indeterminacy, even stochastic explosion, of the price level in the face of a monetary policy that holdsM fixed, and the possibility of a unique, stable price level in the face of a monetary policy that simply pegs the nominal interest rate at an arbitrary level.In a rational expectations, market-clearing equilibrium model with a costlessly-produced fiat money that is useful in transactions, the following things are true under broad assumptions.- A monetary policy that fixes the money stock may (depending on the transactions technology) be consistent with indeterminacy of the price level—indeed with stochastically fluctuating, explosive inflation.- A monetary policy that fixes the nominal interest rate, even if it holds the interest rate constant regardless of the observed rate of inflation or money growth rate, may deliver a uniquely determined price level.- The existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium price level cannot be determined from knowledge of monetary policy alone; fiscal policy plays an equally important role. Special case models with interest-bearing debt and no money are possible, just as are special cases with money and no interest-bearing debt. In each the price level may be uniquely determined.Determinacy of the price level under any policy depends on the public's beliefs about what the policy authority would do under conditions that are never observed in equilibrium.These points are not new. Eric Leeper [1991] has made most of them within a single coherent model. Woodford [1993], in a representative agent cash-in-advance model, has displayed the possibility of indeterminacy with a fixed quantity of money and the possibility of uniqueness with an interest-rate pegging policy. Aiyagari and Gertler [1985] use an overlapping generations model to make many of the points made in this paper, without discussing the possibility of stochastic sunspot equilibria. Sargent and Wallace [1981] and Obstfeld [1983] have also discussed related issues.This paper improves on Leeper by moving beyond his analysis of local linear approximations to the full model solution, as is essential if explosive sunspot equilibria are to be distinguished from explosive solutions to the Euler equations that can be ruled out as equilibria. It improves on the other cited work by pulling together into the context of one fairly transparent model discussion of phenomena previously discussed in isolation in very different models.We study a representative agent model in which there is no production or real savings, but transactions costs generate a demand for money. The government costlessly provides fiat money balances, imposes lump-sum taxes, and issues debt, but has no other role in the economy. We make restrictive assumptions about the form of the utility function and the form of a transactions cost term in the budget constraint.The model could be extended to include production, capital accumulation, non-neutral taxation, productive government expenditure, and a more general utility function without affecting the conclusions discussed in this paper. Indeed the model I informally matched to data in an earlier paper [1988] makes some such extensions. While such an extended model is more realistic, it is harder to solve. The version in my earlier paper [1988] was solved numerically and simulated. The bare-bones model of this paper allows an explicit analytic solution that may make its results easier to understand.This paper improved following comments from participants at seminars at Yale and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank. Eric Leeper and James Robinson were particularly helpful. Comments from Michael Woodford led to important corrections and clarifications.     

The P* model and Austrian prices

In theP ^* model the price level is determined by the money stock per unit of potential out-put and the long-run equilibrium level of the velocity of money. This article applies this model to Austria. Problems in identifying permanent shocks to potential output and/or velocity lead to the rejection of such models of the price level, but their first-difference version is not so suspect. While evidence is found of a long-run relationship between Austria inflation and money growth, even the first-difference version of theP ^* model is rejected for Austria. Since Austria is a small economy, closely tied to Germany, the article also investigates whether Austrian prices are tied to a GermanP ^* measure. This hypothesis is also rejected, but there is a statistically-significant long-run relationship between Austrian and German inflation. Moreover, Austrian money growth remains significant even in this relationship.This article was written while the author was a Visiting Scholar at the Austrian National Bank. The author is indebted to Fritz Breuss, W. Jahnke, and Dieter Proske for help in obtaining the data used here, and for useful discussions about the data, relevant theoretical issues and results. The comments of the referees on an earlier version are also gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed here are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Austrian National Bank, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.     

股票价格、实体经济与货币政策研究——基于我国1997-2011年的经验证据

本文运用格兰杰因果关系检验和向量自回归方法分析了1997年1月至2011年6月我国股票价格、GDP、通货膨胀率和货币政策的关系,实证结果表明,在中国,股票价格对通货膨胀的效应为正向,即股市上涨能带动通货膨胀水平的上涨。股票市场对GDP的影响短期内主要表现为替代效应,长期来看,则是财富效应和投资效应占主导;同时,货币供应量和利率对股票价格均有影响,但影响均不显著。通过格兰杰因果关系检验发现,利率变动导致货币供应量和股票价格发生变化。而货币供应量的变化影响着通货膨胀,也一定程度影响利率和股票价格。通过广义脉冲响应发现,中国人民银行紧缩性的利率政策并不能抑制股票价格上涨。增加货币供给短期内能够推动股市上涨,但长期对股市仍没有效果。     

Stock prices and long-run demand for money: evidence from Malaysia

This paper investigates the money demand function for Malaysia in the 1971-1996 period using the multivariate cointegration and error correction model methodology. The results suggest that a stable long-run relationship exist between real M2, the interest rate differential, income and stock prices. Stock prices have a significant negative substitute effect on long-run as well as short-run broad-money demand (M2) and its omission can lead to serious misspecification in the money demand function. The analysis from the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality tests find that money is endogenous and that there is at least a unidirectional relationship between stock prices and real M2. Stock prices Granger cause real M2 indirectly through income between interest rates and stock prices and stock prices and money stock. This paper comes to the conclusion that due to the endogeneity of money, M2 cannot be completely controlled by Malaysia's central bank. Therefore, in formulating future monetary policy, the response of money demand to stock prices should be considered.     

Is the optimum quantity of money compatible with the unique price level under laissez-faire?

The purpose of this paper is to set forth a general equilibrium model to demonstrate that even if the real social costs of producing money are positive, the optimum quantity of money is incompatible with the unique price level under laissez-faire if zero-degree homogeneity of the production-maintenance cost function in M and P is assumed.     

The causal nexus of money,output and prices in Malaysia

Using Geweke's approach to Wiener–Granger causality,bidirectional causation between money supply and nominal output were detected. Inflation in Malaysia is essentially a monetary phenomenon. The empirical findings suggest that by controlling money supply, the central bank might be able to successfully maintain price stability at producer's level but not at consumer's level unless narrow money stock is bring targeted. Serious attempts by the central bank to tighten money supply could have a strong feedback on real output and even instaneous impact on nominal output     

The effects of monetary policy in a small open economy: the case of Portugal

In this article, I analyse the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy on the Portuguese economy. I show that a positive interest rate shock leads to: (i) a contraction of real GDP and a substantial increase of the unemployment rate; (ii) a quick fall in the commodity price and a gradual decrease of the price level and (iii) a downward correction of the stock price index. It also produces a ‘short-lived liquidity effect’ and helps explain the negative comovement between bonds and stocks. In addition, I find evidence suggesting the existence of a money demand function characterized by small output and interest rate elasticities. By its turn, the central bank’s policy rule follows closely the dynamics of the money markets. Finally, both the real GDP and the price level in Portugal would have been higher during almost the entire sample period if there were no monetary policy surprises.     

Fiscal policy,long-run stability and aggregate supply

The model developed in this paper incorporates aggregate supply and hence the price level into existing dynamic IS-LM models of flow and stock equilibrium. Whereas the long-run equilibrium position in these models is stable and fiscal policy works regardless of empirical magnitudes when budget deficits are financed by printing money, the introduction of aggregate supply into these models is shown to render the stability of long-run equilibrium and hence the effectiveness of fiscal policy under money financing, open to empirical question.     

What to stabilize in the open economy*

We consider the question how “best” to maintain price‐level stability in an open economy, and evaluate three possible policy choices: (a) a constant money growth rate rule; (b) a fixed exchange rate; and (c) a policy of explicit commitment to a price‐level target. In each case we assume that policy is conducted by injecting reserves into or withdrawing reserves from the “banking system.” In evaluating the three regimes, we adopt the criterion that the “best” policy should leave the least scope for indeterminacy and “excessive” economic volatility. In a steady‐state equilibrium, the choice of regime is largely irrelevant; any steady‐state equilibrium under one regime can be duplicated by an appropriate choice of the “control” variable under any other regime. However, we show that the sets of equilibria under the three regimes are dramatically different. When all countries follow the policy of fixing a constant rate of money growth, there are no equilibria displaying endogenously arising volatility and there is no indeterminacy of equilibrium. Under a regime of fixed exchange rates, indeterminacies and endogenously arising fluctuations are impossible if and only if the country with the low “reserve‐to‐deposit” ratio is charged with maintaining the fixed rate. Finally, when one country targets the time path of its price level, under very weak conditions, there will be indeterminacy of equilibrium and endogenously arising volatility driven by expectations.     

Modeling endogenous monetary stock behavior. A Simultaneous Transfer Function approach

A structural model of demand and supply of money for the U.S. economy is estimated by the relatively new Simultaneous Transfer Function Method. This approach is motivated by (1) a need to impose valid identifying restrictions on the model and (ii) to facilitate a systematic specification search process. The endogeneity of monetary stock is effectively dealt with at two levels. Policy-wise endogeneity is handled by defining the money supply variable as a ratio of observed and exogenous monetary stock (based on reserves supplied by the Fed). Statistical endogeneity is captured in a Simultaneous Equations System. Empirical results show that commercial banks are able to alter observed monetary stock behavior when the profitability of creating new loans (deposits) increases. This accommodation is, expectedly, fairly small and instantaneous.     

控股股东股权质押、控制权转移风险与广告投入

股权质押使控股股东面临控制权转移风险,其有动机进行市值管理。本文以2011-2019年中国A股上市公司为样本,考察股权质押情境下控股股东是否存在调整广告投入的行为。研究结果发现,控股股东进行股权质押后,公司广告投入水平显著提高,说明股权质押情境下控股股东会通过策略性地增加广告投入进行信息管理,而非通过削减广告投入进行向上盈余管理,证实广告具有短期股票回报效应;控制权转移风险较大时,控股股东股权质押对广告投入的正向影响更明显,说明股权质押情境下控股股东增加广告投入是出于缓解控制权转移风险的动机。进一步研究发现,在散户规模较大和产品直接与消费者接触的企业,广告更容易吸引投资者注意力,此时控股股东增加广告投入的动机更强,该行为短期内可以提振股价,但没有起到改善经营业绩的作用且加剧了股价波动。本文为资本市场和产品市场的联系提供了证据,且对相关部门加强上市公司广告费用监管具有一定的政策参考价值。     

Modelling money demand for a panel of eight transitional economies

In this article, we estimate money demand functions for a panel of eight transitional economies, using quarterly data for the period 1995:01 1995 to 2005:03. We find that real M1 and real M2 and their determinants, namely real income and short-term domestic interest rate, are cointegrated, both for individual countries as well as for the panel. Long-run elasticities suggest that consistent with theory, real income positively and nominal interest rate negatively impact real money demand. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run bidirectional causality between M1 and M2 and their determinants. Finally, our tests for stability of the money demand functions reveal more cases of unstable money demand functions when M2 is used as a proxy for money demand.     

Can buy me love: the effect of child welfare expenditures on maltreatment outcomes

I consider the effect of state level child welfare expenditures on child abuse victimization and fatality rates. The main result is that these expenditures are strongly associated with improved child maltreatment outcomes. Further, the well known negative association between income and child abuse is overstated if one fails to control for relevant policy differences that are correlated with economic circumstances. The effect of income diminishes further upon controlling for social attitudes correlated with income. The source of identification is a set of large and explicitly exogenous changes in child welfare expenditures induced by the circa 2000 recession. I show that endogeneity problems are small and tend to work against the result.     

基于VAR的货币供应量对我国上证指数的影响力分析

货币政策会通过货币供应量的变动发挥其政策效果,并借助一定的传导机制,影响一国经济的各个层面,其供应量的变动对资产价格的变动也会造成一定的影响。应用VAR模型,选择一定的变量以及对数据进行整理,对货币供应量对我国上证指数的影响力进行实证分析,发现货币供应一般通过进入经济实体和股市两种途径影响股票市场,M1的增减方向与股市涨跌方向基本同步,M2对上证指数波动的贡献率最大。     

A cointegrated structural VAR model of the Canadian economy

This paper implements a cointegrated structural VAR model of the Canadian economy using quarterly data over the period 1964–1994. The dynamic properties of the estimated model are compared to the predictions of a simple textbook macro model. Four long-run equilibrium relationships are tested: (i) consumption–income; (ii) consumption–wealth; (iii) money demand; and (iv) the Fisher equation. The empirical results obtained are generally consistent with the predictions of the textbook model's long-run implications, although level shifts are observed in the consumption/income and the wealth/income ratios. Similarly it is found that there was an increase in the ex post real interest rate, implying a level shift in the Fisher relation, following the Bank of Canada's policy change towards a stable price level target.     

A note on nominal government expenditure targets

In IS-LM models, government expenditure is usually fixed in real terms. In this short note, we examine some of the implications of nominal government expenditure targets for both model stability and comparative statics. When a fixed money supply policy is in operation, nominal government expenditure targets may stabilize an otherwise unstable system. If this is the case, an increase in the nominal stock of money will reduce the price level in the long run.     

Money non-neutrality in a Rational Belief Equilibrium with financial assets

Summary. In Rational Beliefs Equilibria money is generically non-neutral. Given the expectational perspective proposed by the Theory of Rational Belief Equilibrium, we show that one of the most important factors in the emergence of money non-neutrality is played by Endogenous Uncertainty. This, in contrast to the Rational Expectations results of money neutrality and policy ineffectiveness, leads to a scenario in which monetary policy has an impact on the real economy and price volatility. The heterogeneity of beliefs together with the distribution and intensity of agents' states of optimism/pessimism can amplify the real effect of monetary policy and/or generate endogenous fluctuations in the economy which are not explained by any exogenous shock. We claim that money non-neutrality is mostly an expectations driven phenomenon. Indeed, additional assumptions of asymmetry of information and/or unanticipated monetary policy are not needed to explain the real effect of monetary policy as it is customary in the New Classical Theory. Received: May 30, 2000; revised version: December 28, 2000