论IMF和World Bank在国际金融一体化中的作用

摘要：在世界金融一体化的进程中,IMF和World Bank发挥了积极的促进作用,但在金融监管的效率、援助的条件、运行机制、维护发展中国家主权利益等方面,IMF和World Bank的金融监管和服务行为又遭到了强烈的批评。IMF和World Bank有其自身的不足,要健全监管机制,加强机构的合作,完善自身能力,强化发展中国家的参与。     

On the Perils of Financial Intermediaries Setting Security Prices: The Mutual Fund Wild Card Option

Economic distortions can arise when financial claims trade at prices set by an intermediary rather than direct negotiation between principals. We demonstrate the problem in a specific context, the exchange of open-end mutual fund shares. Mutual funds typically set fund share price (NAV) using an algorithm that fails to account for nonsynchronous trading in the fund's underlying securities. This results in predictable changes in NAV, which lead to exploitable trading opportunities. A modification to the pricing algorithm that corrects for nonsynchronous trading eliminates much of the predictability. However, there are many other potential sources of distortion when intermediaries set prices.     

Minimizing the Risk of a Financial Product Using a Put Option

In this article, we elaborate a method for determining the optimal strike price for a put option, used to hedge a position in a financial product such as a basket of shares and a bond. This strike price is optimal in the sense that it minimizes, for a given budget, a class of risk measures satisfying certain properties. Formulas are derived for one single underlying as well as for a weighted sum of underlyings. For the latter we will consider two cases depending on the dependence structure of the components in this weighted sum. Applications and numerical results are presented.     

央行区域金融风险监测体系构建中存在的问题及改革建议

在国际金融危机持续恶化对中国经济金融产生明显影响的背景下,有效的提升央行的区域金融风险监测水平．对经济安全运行和金融稳定具有重要意义。文章首先分析了央行的区域金融风险监测体系,其次对其存在的问题与原因进行了探讨,最后对于如何完善区域金融风险监测体系提出有关对策建议。     

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial Frictions

We probe the scope for reacting to house prices in simple and implementable monetary policy rules, using a New Keynesian model with a housing sector and financial frictions on the household side. We show that the social‐welfare‐maximizing monetary policy rule features a reaction to house price variations, when the latter are generated by housing demand or financial shocks. The sign and size of the reaction crucially depend on the degree of financial frictions in the economy. When the share of constrained agents is relatively small, the optimal reaction is negative, implying that the central bank must move the policy rate in the opposite direction with respect to house prices. However, when the economy is characterized by a sufficiently high average loan‐to‐value ratio, then it becomes optimal to counter house price increases by raising the policy rate.     

商业银行隐含期权的利率风险管理研究

随着利率市场化改革的深入,隐含期权将成为我国商业银行普遍存在的利率风险问题,对这些隐含期权利率风险的忽略有可能给银行造成重大损失.基于期权调整的有效持续期和凸度是衡量银行隐含期权利率风险的主要技术指标.对于隐含期权的利率风险应从契约上加以防范,并可运用证券化技术转移、建立基于期权调整利差模型的利率定价机制、科学匹配有效持续期和引入利率衍生工具等途径进行全面控制.     

财务困境预警模型与银行信贷风险的识别与防范

当前商业银行信贷风险管理主要采用的是6C法和五级分类法,这类方法具有主观性、短期性和单一性等缺点,不能为银行提供及时准确的决策信息。鉴于此,本文在企业财务困境预警模型的基础上建立了商业银行对企业的财务预警模型—Logit模型,该模型以企业的现金流量好坏作为信贷评级依据,以各类财务指标作为预警指标。研究结果表明:在企业发生财务困境的前一两年,该模型具有很好的预测效果,能够有效地为商业银行识别出有问题的企业,从而降低商业银行的不良贷款的形成。     

金融风险传染模型对篮子信用期权对冲的影响

信用风险可以用原产品的股票来对冲.我们可以通过持有企业股票卖的头寸来对冲息差.如果息差加大,期权价格降低,股票价格也会随着降低,我们则持有卖方位面.这样,我们就利用了一个流动工具进行对冲,但是这种方法也有弊端.     

Bank Debt Restructurings and the Composition of Exchange Offers in Financial Distress

This article examines the relation between bank debt forgiveness and the structure of public debt exchange offers in financial distress. I find that the structure of exchange offers and the likelihood of an offer's success are significantly related to whether the bank participates in the restructuring transaction. Exchange offers made in conjunction with bank concessions are characterized by significantly greater reductions in public debt outstanding and significantly less senior debt offered to bondholders. Overall, the results suggest that the structure of a firm's public and private claims significantly affects the firm's ability to modify its capital structure in financial distress.     

Volatility Implied by Option Prices: The Case of Takeover Bids

We model the effect of an impending share price jump on the implied standard deviation (ISD) of a company's options, testing the model by investigating its predictive ability for ISDs of companies subject to a takeover bid. Our model fits the observed ISDs well for all but certain deep in-the-money options. However, the model demonstrates that a discontinuity in the relationship between moneyness and the ISD both explains the combination of high and zero ISDs exhibited by these options, and impairs the predictive power of the model at these levels of moneyness.     

金融产品持股与银行系统性风险——兼论《商业银行股权管理暂行办法》的影响

基于金融机构通过金融产品增持上市银行股份现象日益普遍的背景,本文运用2011-2019年上市银行数据,采用系统GMM和合成控制法(SCM),分析金融产品持股¹对银行系统性风险的影响及其异质性,并探讨《商业银行股权管理暂行办法》(以下简称《股权办法》)限制金融产品超比例持有上市银行股份规定的效果。结果表明:(1)当单家金融产品股东的持股比例均低于5%²时,其会利用专业优势更好地监督银行行为,金融产品总持股比例有助于降低银行系统性风险。(2)当第一大金融产品股东的持股比例超过5%时,其会利用话语权为自身牟利,导致银行系统性风险增加,削弱金融产品总持股比例对银行系统性风险的降低作用。(3)由于保险产品持股在金融产品总持股中占主导地位,其对银行系统性风险的影响与金融产品持股的作用一致;保险产品以外的其他金融产品总持股比例会降低银行系统性风险。(4)《股权办法》的实施有助于约束持股比例超过5%的机构投资者的冒险行为,进而降低相应银行的系统性风险。     

Risk Management as Passionate Imitation: The Interconnections Among Emotions,Performance Metrics,and Risk in a Global Technology Firm

This paper traces the evolution of risk management practices in a global technology company between 2000 and 2015. We extend recent research that has highlighted the emotional aspects of riskwork. We detail how a passionate interest—‘we can do better at risk management’—emotionally ‘hooked’ the staff in the company's Sourcing Unit. Risk management, emotion, and management controls were intertwined. When top management singled out one of the key metrics clearly as a risk‐related metric for the Sourcing Unit, the employees felt a strong sense of relief, which gave rise to subsequent extensive risk measurement. We also contribute to the more general debate about accounting and its entanglement with emotions. Little is known about the ‘birth’ and the reasons for durability of passionate interests. Following Tarde (1903/2013), such ‘birth’ and endurance can be explained by analyzing how passionate imitation emerges as a result of a series of dislocal events—in our case a fire, new performance metrics, and natural disasters. These events triggered emotions that provided the necessary energy for three forms of passionate imitation: a) ‘we need to imitate our main competitor’ and risk mapping; b) ‘others in the organization are imitating us and our suppliers should imitate us’ and risk measurement; and c) ‘others in the organization (more specifically the Product Development Unit) should imitate us’ and proactive risk avoidance. This passionate imitation helped explain why the sourcing staff continued to be emotionally ‘hooked’ to risk management, that is, how the passionate interest endured and became vested.     

Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress

The purpose of this study is to present a new classification procedure, Recursive Partitioning Algorithm (RPA), for financial analysis and to compare it with discriminant analysis within the context of firm financial distress. RPA is a computerized, nonparametric technique based on pattern recognition which has attributes of both the classical univariate classification approach and multivariate procedures. RPA is found to outperform discriminant analysis in most original sample and holdout comparisons. We also observe that additional information can be derived by assessing both RPA and discriminant analysis results.     

The Determinants of Implied Volatility: A Test Using LIFFE Option Prices

This paper presents and tests a model of the volatility of individual companies' stocks, using implied volatilities derived from option prices. The data comes from traded options quoted on the London International Financial Futures Exchange. The model relates equity volatilities to corporate earnings announcements, interest-rate volatility and to four determining variables representing leverage, the degree of fixed-rate debt, asset duration and cash flow inflation indexation. The model predicts that equity volatility is positively related to duration and leverage and negatively related to the degree of inflation indexation and the proportion of fixed-rate debt in the capital structure. Empirical results suggest that duration, the proportion of fixed-rate debt, and leverage are significantly related to implied volatility. Regressions using all four determining variables explain approximately 30% of the cross-sectional variation in volatility. Time series tests confirm an expected drop in volatility shortly after the earnings announcement and in most cases a positive relationship between the volatility of the stock and the volatility of interest rates.     

世界银行建议重新思考国家在金融业中的作用

世界银行新报告建议,重新思考国家在金融部门中的作用,以使政府能够在危机爆发时更好地平衡信贷需求和给银行提供应急支持与促进加强透明度和竞争的措施之间的关系。     

国际金融系统风险的放大与传导:对冲基金在金融风暴中的作用

作为国际热钱的代表,对冲基金在2007～2008年金融风暴中究竟起了怎样的作用?本文首先分析了对冲基金在危机中去杠杆化操作的原因及后果;通过构造1171家美国上市银行加权平均投资组合,以其月度收益率作为美国银行业代理变量,采用1994～2008年对冲基金月度数据进行经验论证。研究发现:第一,对冲基金去杠杆化放大了系统风险;第二,对冲基金全行业具有杠杆效应的一致性;第三,对冲基金的收益水平与美国银行业紧密相关,因此,对冲基金的行动是资本市场剧烈波动的影响因素,向美国银行业传导了系统风险,推动了金融风暴的形成。最后,本文提出加强对冲基金监管的思路。     

The Market Value of Corporate Votes: Theory and Evidence from Option Prices

This paper proposes a new method using option prices to estimate the market value of the shareholder voting rights associated with a stock. The method consists of synthesizing a nonvoting share using put‐call parity, and comparing its price to that of the underlying stock. Empirically, we find this measure of the value of voting rights to be positive and increasing in the time to expiration of synthetic stocks. The measure also increases around special shareholder meetings, periods of hedge fund activism, and M&A events. The method is likely useful in studies of corporate control and also has asset pricing implications.     

The Exploitation of Relationships in Financial Distress: The Case of Trade Credit

This paper develops optimal pricing, lending, and renegotiation strategies for companies in relationships where one firm is highly dependent on the other. Long-term trade–creditor firm relationships induce dependent trade creditors to grant more concessions in debt renegotiations than nondependent creditors. Anticipating these larger renegotiation concessions, not only do less financially stable firms prefer trade credit, but all firms agree to pay a higher interest rate for trade credit. The model also explains the existence of "teaser" interest rates and convenience classes. Findings are consistent with those of the relationship-lending literature.     

Determinants of Bank Distress in Europe: Evidence from a New Data Set

Using a unique data set on bank distress, this paper provides novel empirical evidence on the determinants of bank soundness in the European Union (EU) as a whole. The estimation results are consistent with the hypothesis that bank risks have converged across EU members, providing empirical support for introduction of a more centralized system of financial regulation in the EU. We show that asset quality and earning profile of banks are important determinants of bank distress next to leverage, suggesting that these should be central in EU-wide financial regulation and supervision. We find that market discipline, both by depositors and by stock market participants, plays a role in the EU, supporting the notion that transparency and dissemination of financial information would contribute to the financial soundness of banks. Our data also point to the presence of contagion effects, relatively higher fragility of concentrated banking sectors, and hazards associated with high ratios of wholesale funding.     

Stock Option Expensing: The Role of Corporate Governance

Analysis of the corporate stock option expensing decision (before the practice became mandatory in 2006) continues to be of interest because it provides insight into the underlying factors affecting not only expense recognition, but the overall corporate decision‐making process. Using a sample of 207 companies that volunteered to expense options and more than 1,000 non‐expensing firms, the authors found that companies that provide more disclosure and appeared to have a stronger alignment of managerial and shareholder interests were also more likely to expense stock options—a finding that the authors view as indirect evidence that voluntary expensing was more likely to occur in companies that practiced effective corporate governance. And consistent with the prediction of efficient market theorists, the study also found no significant market reaction to announcements of these decisions to expense options. The study also found that companies that were the heaviest users of options—notably, smaller, high—growth, and less‐profitable firms—were least likely to expense them. And while this finding adds to the weight of evidence suggesting that companies often make accounting decisions designed to boost reported earnings, the authors also recognize that the possibility that the decision by other companies not to expense may have been a strategy designed primarily to preserve access to capital markets.