网络组织成员合作的声誉模型分析

本文分析了网络组织成员合作稳定的意义与影响因素。在Vickers和Barro分别对Kreps的声誉模型简化处理后的模型基础上，从网络组织成员之间合作的博弈关系角度，构建了成员的声誉模型——一个单边非完全信息动态博弈模型，分析了声誉对网络组织成员的激励效应，以及声誉与网络组织治理绩效之间的关系。本文的基本结论：在有利于经济连续稳定的合作环境中，声誉效应是网络组织成员合作的重要激励机制，在声誉效应的激励机制下，成员之间合作是有效率的。应用本文模型所给出的分析方法与结论，对我国企业网络组织成员存在的机会主义等问题，给出了作者自己的解释，对声誉机制发挥作用的条件提出建议。     

Business model innovation: The effects of exploratory orientation,opportunity recognition,and entrepreneurial bricolage in an emerging economy

Business model innovation takes shape through a process of experimentation. This study holds that exploratory orientation is a key initiating factor of the experimentation process, and opportunity recognition and entrepreneurial bricolage both are actions constituting this process and thereby serve as conduits between exploratory orientation and business model innovation. Based on a survey data of Chinese firms, this study finds the positive relationship between exploratory orientation and business model innovation is mediated by opportunity recognition and entrepreneurial bricolage. The findings not only enrich the discipline’s knowledge on the antecedents of business model innovation but also extend the implications of exploratory orientation, opportunity recognition, and entrepreneurial bricolage to business model innovation.     

一种新的机器人自组网群组运动控制模型

针对现有机器人自组网运动控制模型无法真实反映机器人运动规律的问题,提出一种新的群组运动控制模型(group movement control model,GMCM)。该模型基于机器人通用运动学模型,采用群组控制算法,对传统群组随机运动模型——参考点群组运动模型(reference point groupmobility,RPGM)进行修改,可描述机器人编队解散和集合的运动状态,满足群组分割与合并的需求。进一步实现GMCM模型,并基于GMCM,RPGM,DRGM模型对机器人自组网路由协议进行模拟仿真。结果表明,基于GMCM模型仿真时协议性能有所降低,较为真实地模拟了机器人编队运动,对机器人自组网的研究具有一定的参考价值。     

Queueing models for full-flexible multi-class call centers with real-time anticipated delays

In this paper, we consider two basic multi-class call center models, with and without reneging. Customer classes have different priorities. The content of different types of calls is assumed to be similar allowing their service times to be identical. We study the problem of announcing delays to customers upon their arrival. For the simplest model without reneging, we give a method to estimate virtual delays that is used within the announcement step. For the second model, we first build the call center model incorporating reneging. The model takes into account the change in customer behavior that may occur when delay information is communicated to them. In particular, it is assumed that customer reneging is replaced by balking that depends on the state of the system in this case. We develop a method based on Markov chains in order to estimate virtual delays of new arrivals for this model. Finally, some practical issues concerning delay announcement are discussed.     

金融危机理论沿革及新发展

金融是现代经济的核心,金融部门的风险和不稳定性因素可能极大地影响实体经济的运行,因此,正确评估一国所面临的金融风险成为维护一国金融体系稳定的重要内容。在学术界,金融危机（稳定性）理论已经过了强调“基础经济变量”的第一代模型、强调“心理因素”和“预期自致型危机”的第二代模型和对国家资产负债状况进行总体分析的第三代模型的衍变过程。资产负债分析是第三代理论研究模型的核心,但由于统计资料的局限性,这一分析方法在我国的应用还受到诸多限制。     

Vision of future e-government via new e-government maturity model: Based on Korea's e-government practices

This paper analyze that the social paradigm shift caused by the new IT has brought the current highly-advanced information society following the industrial and information societies, and proposes a new e-government development model called as “E-Government Maturity Model based on Socio-political Development” that incorporates the level of social maturity based on e-democracy and the maturity level of civic society with statistic model. The new model classifies e-Government development into four stages: “Bureaucratic model”, “Information management model”, “Participatory model”, and “Governance model”. This paper also attempted to apply this model to e-government practices in Korea on the flow of time. E-government in Korea has mainly shown features of one distinct type at a time among four stages, as so far explained above. In this case, the former stage developed to the next level after going through the process of maturation in advancement of ICT and social maturity and political stability. This paper defined the ‘smart society’ as the highly-advanced information society from the Korean case study. Instead of literally interpreting the term ‘smart’, it should be comprehensively re-interpreted as a new academic term that reflects perspectives of social and technological changes, introducing new meanings. The definition and concept or the maturity level of the smart society shall be left for the future study suggestions. We have so far analyzed the characteristics of progressing toward the smart society based on Korea's cases of e-government development. The analysis, though started from certain cases of Korea, will be an applicable model to other countries as well, since Korea is in the leading group in terms of informatization. This paper is distinguished from the other studies because it is an analytical study on the non-technological factors of e-government development: especially focused on the political, socio-economic aspects of e-government. Despite the contribution mentioned above, this paper also has an academic limitation on the generalization of findings because of its a single case study on the Korea. So we will try to explain and analyze the other countries' cases with the research framework: E-Government Maturity Model based on Socio-political Development of this paper in the next studies. So, this model will be expected to be generally expandable and applicable to e-government cases of other countries.     

表外业务下的CB-LM模型研究——CC-LM模型的新发展

随着商业银行表外业务的迅速发展,经济中出现了一种“表内信贷表外化”的趋势,这一趋势导致我国货币政策调控面临着更加严峻的挑战。针对这一经济问题,本文在理论分析和数学建模的基础上构建起了更加符合我国国情的CB-LM模型。CB-LM模型的优点在于它用整体信贷的概念取代了CC-LM模型中表内信贷的概念,并且它还同时考虑了信贷市场、商品市场和货币市场的均衡。另外,通过经济学分析,我们发现CB-LM模型下货币政策对产出的影响比CC-LM模型下的影响更加强烈。CB-LM模型的构建将在一定程度上促进我国货币政策调控理论的发展。     

Robust Testing of the Utility‐based High‐technology Product Sales Forecasting Models Proposed by Decker and Gnibba‐Yukawa (2010)

Decker and Gnibba‐Yukawa (2010) propose an elegant utility‐based model for forecasting the sales of high‐technology products and suggest that the model yields forecasts that are highly accurate. However, this finding is based on forecasts for a total of only six holdout observations shared across three products. This number of observations is insufficient for reliable inferences to be drawn about the accuracy of a method and the use of such a small data set runs counter to an accepted principle of forecast evaluation. The authors’ proposed model was tested on more extensive data and sensitivity analysis applied to the results. No evidence was found that the utility‐based model could outperform a relatively simple extrapolative model despite the much greater effort involved in applying the proposed model. In addition, the utility‐based model is only applicable for forecasting sales during a narrow interval in a product's life cycle and requires several periods of historic sales data before it can be implemented. It also depends heavily on the accurate estimates of parameters that are determined outside the model (and which may depend on difficult judgments by managers) and assumes that consumers or households will only purchase the product once between the launch date and the forecast horizon. In light of this, it is argued that the utility‐based model is likely to have limited usefulness as a sales forecasting tool.     

Office Rent in the Chicago CBD

This study focuses on the Chicago CBD office market, an important market at the local, regional, national and international levels. The purpose of this study is to develop a hedonic regression model that explains the variation in office rent per square foot. Five functional forms (linear, reciprocal, logarithmic, semi-log and log-linear) of the model are considered. A generally log-linear model is determined to be the best model based on a series of Box-Cox/Box-Tidwell type transformations and likelihood ratio tests. The regression results reveal that the model has very high explanatory power. The methodology of this study differs substantially from that of previous studies on this topic. Perhaps most importantly, the unit of analysis is the office unit rather than the building. This choice suggested the use of specific lease terms for actual transactions and location of the unit within the building as new variables. Finally, the modeling of location of the building within the CBD was found to be a critical step.     

基于SARIMA-SVR组合模型的 空气质量指数预测

空气质量指数(AQI)在波动中既具有整体的时间序列线性特征和明显的季节性波动周期,又具有多种因素影响的不确定性,为了提高AQI的预测精度,基于Ri386 3.3.3和Matlab R2014a两种编程软件,提出了一种同时具有线性和非线性的复合特征的时间序列预测模型——SARIMA-SVR组合模型。以太原市2014年1月—2019年7月的AQI月均值数据为基础,利用SARIMA时间序列模型进行线性预测,利用SVR模型对残差进行非线性预测,加和得到组合预测模型的预测结果,分析比较SARIMA,SVR和SARIMA-SVR这3种模型的预测结果和平均绝对百分比误差。结果表明,组合预测模型发挥了2种模型各自的优势,相较于单一预测模型的预测结果而言,其预测精度更高,稳定性更好。通过此模型得到的空气质量预测结果不仅可为人们的日常生活提供指导,而且可为大气污染的防治工作提供科学依据和借鉴意义。     

经济系统的资源位凹集模型及其政策含义

本文首先论述了“系统经济,整合为王”的基本思想;在此基础上提出了经济系统的资源位凹集模型把经济系统的实际资源位结构构造成凹集是整合在所有权意义上不属于自己的资源的必要条件,这为如何发展系统经济指明了方向;根据这个模型,推广了国际贸易理论的Heckscher-Ohlin定理,提出了如何应对经济全球化和如何在国际分工中获得最大的国家利益的对策性建议和必须进行的观念转变;最后,在对科斯企业理论进行认真分析的基础上,提出了企业凹集模型,进一步指出在系统经济条件下,整合资源的能力是企业家的核心能力的新理念。     

基于EPC的石油工程项目伙伴关系管理模式研究

介绍了目前我国石油工程项目管理模式的类型并分析了这些模式存在的一些不足之处,提出了一种新的项目管理模式：EPC＋Partnering模式,解释了EPC＋Partnering模式的确切含义,分析了该模式的组织模式和职能设置以及运行机制,结合实例对该模式的可行性进行分析,最后提出了实施该模式的配套改革措施。     

基于Web Service的建设项目集成化管理信息系统研究

Web Service是一种基于对象／组件模型的分布式计算机技术，其优势在于跨平台的互操作性和软件复用。在研究了我国建设项目管理信息化现状及存在的问题的基础上，分析了建设项目集成化管理对建设项目管理信息集成系统提出的要求，建立了基于Web Service技术的建设项目集成化管理信息系统的框架模型，并对该模型的具体实现进行了深入地研究。     

Case Study: Model for Economic Lifetime of Drilling Machines in the Swedish Mining Industry

The purpose of this article is to develop a practical economic replacement decision model to identify the economic lifetime of a mining drilling machine. A data-driven optimization model was developed for operating and maintenance costs, purchase price, and machine resale value. Equivalent present value of these costs by using discount rate was considered. The proposed model shows that the absolute optimal replacement time (ORT) of a drilling machine used in one underground mine in Sweden is 115 months. Sensitivity and regression analysis show that the maintenance cost has the largest impact on the ORT of this machine. The proposed decision-making model is applicable and useful and can be implemented within the mining industry.     

项目组合选择研究：基于模糊理论的模型建构及验证

项目组合的选定与企业经营息息相关,然而传统的选择方法存在许多限制。本文应用模糊理论建构一个项目组合的决策模型,模型中纳入了成本、利润及风险等3个决策因子,探讨在资源有限的情况下项目成本及获利的交互影响关系,并利用模糊归属函数建构一个数学规划模型。为了验证模型的有效性,用此模型与传统模型进行求解比较,证实了所提出模型的实用性。     

国际石油价格预测模型综述

按照时间的顺序,从非正式模型、理论模型和模拟模型3个角度综述了世界石油价格的预测模型。其中,石油价格的非正式预测模型简单易懂,对政策的制定和社会经济发展影响较大;理论模型是研究问题的基础;模拟模型能利用技术手段更好地进行价格波动区间的预测。     

Modeling the effect of patient choice on the performance of open access scheduling

Open access scheduling, introduced in recent years, is a revolutionary concept for improving healthcare access and reducing patient no-shows. In this paper, a Markov chain model is presented to capture appointment scheduling in open access clinics when considering patient choice of appointments. Due to the curse of dimensionality, it is impossible to solve the steady-state distribution of the Markov chain model for a typical-size open access primary care clinic. Therefore, an approximate approach is proposed to efficiently estimate the performance of a provider capacity policy based on the Markov chain model. This approach can accurately estimate the performance of a practical capacity policy in a significantly shorter time. Using this approach, the impact of patient choice on the performance of provider capacity policies is investigated.     

A rational‐expectations revision of Makadok's resource/capability synthesis

Makadok has recently developed a mathematical model aimed at synthesizing the resource‐based and dynamic‐capabilities views of the rent creation process. One unstated implicit assumption in that model is that each bidding firm in the resource market is ignorant not only of the content of rival firms' private information, but also of the quality (i.e., the noisiness or reliability) of that information. Consequently, that model does not qualify as a rational‐expectations Bayesian Nash equilibrium—a fact that both generates questionable results (e.g., the possibility of negative expected profits) and impedes any effort to extend the model. The rational‐expectations critique in economics points out that this sort of nonrational assumption becomes increasingly implausible as economic actors learn more about each other's patterns over time through repeated interactions (in this case, as bidders repeatedly compete against each other to buy different resources over time). So, over the long run, the only truly stable, viable, and robust assumption would be rational‐expectations behavior. The primary purpose of this paper is to put Makadok's model on the firmer methodological footing of rational‐expectations Bayesian Nash equilibrium, so that it will no longer generate questionable results, and so that future researchers can more easily extend it. The secondary purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that this shift to rational‐expectations assumptions has little substantive impact on the testable hypotheses generated by Makadok's original model. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.