The optimal design of Ponzi schemes in finite economies

As no rational agent would be willing to take part in the last round in a finite economy, it is difficult to design Ponzi schemes that are certain to explode. This paper argues that if agents correctly believe in the possibility of a partial bailout when a gigantic Ponzi scheme collapses, and they recognize that a bailout is tantamount to a redistribution of wealth from non-participants to participants, it may be rational for agents to participate, even if they know that it is the last round. We model a political economy where an unscrupulous profit-maximizing promoter can design gigantic Ponzi schemes to cynically exploit this “too big to fail” doctrine. We point to the fact that some of the spectacular Ponzi schemes in history occurred at times where and when such political economies existed—France (1719), Britain (1720), Russia (1994), and Albania (1997).     

Asset prices in dynamic production economies with time-varying risk

We examine the effect of changes in output uncertainty on theprice of aggregate capital and on the prices of levered claimson capital. The relation between the volatility of the marginalproduct of capital and the price of capital depends on the levelof capital adjustment costs and the elasticity of intertemporalsubstitution. For available estimates of this elasticity thevalue of capital and risk are directly related while the valueof levered equity claim on capital may be decreasing in risk.We use these results to analyze the argument that increasedrisk was responsible for the U.S. stock market decline of the1970s.     

Valuation of risky assets in arbitrage-free economies with transactions costs

This paper analyzes the equilibrium valuation of risky assets in the case where transactions costs are present. The methodology involves applying ‘theorems of the alternative’ (Farkas' Lemma) as a consequence of arbitrage-free markets. Under relevant assumptions, it is found that the price of an asset having transactions costs is the corresponding price that would obtain in a perfect market, plus a ‘fudge factor’. This latter factor is provided explicit bounds.     

Consumption correlatedness and risk measurement in economies with non-traded assets and heterogeneous information

A technique is presented for deriving equilibrium models of asset risk premia in continuous time models which does not require the complete solution of a consumer's continuous time stochastic control problem. The technique is used to show that even if traders have heterogeneous information about asset returns and/or there are non-traded assets, then the risk premium of a traded asset is determined by the covariance between the asset's return and the rate of change in per capita consumption. We only require the assumption that traders' consumptions and traded asset values form an Ito process.     

Insider trading in an equilibrium model with default: a passage from reduced-form to structural modelling

We study, in the framework of Back [Rev. Financial Stud. 5(3), 387–409 (1992)], an equilibrium model for the pricing of a defaultable zero coupon bond issued by a firm. The market consists of a risk-neutral informed agent, noise traders, and a market maker who sets the price using the total order. When the insider does not trade, the default time possesses a default intensity in the market’s view as in reduced-form credit risk models. However, we show that, in equilibrium, the modelling becomes structural in the sense that the default time becomes the first time that some continuous observation process falls below a certain barrier. Interestingly, the firm value is still not observable. We also establish the no expected trade theorem that the insider’s trades are inconspicuous.      

On the Value of Transparency in Agencies with Renegotiation

In this paper we study when it is advantageous to improve corporate transparency by allowing shareholders direct access to corporate information and when it is preferable to rely on a reporting system in which shareholders only gain access to information that management chooses to disclose. We show that in an agency model that allows for contract renegotiation, the desirability of a fully transparent reporting regime hinges on the stewardship properties of the information in question. Specifically, information that is mainly useful for predicting future events and of little use for evaluating past actions should only be made available to the public through management's self‐interested disclosures. Only if the information is useful for making inference about managerial actions can it be optimal to have full corporate transparency, so that outsiders have independent access to the same information as management.     

On option pricing in binomial market with transaction costs

Option replication is studied in a discrete-time framework with proportional transaction costs. The model represents an extension of the Cox-Ross-Rubinstein binomial option-pricing model to cover the case of proportional transaction costs for one risky asset with different interest rates on bank credit and deposit. Contingent claims are supposed to be 2-dimensional random variables. Explicit formulas for self-financing strategies are obtained for this case.Received: March 2004, Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 62P05JEL Classification: G11, G13The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for numerous helpful comments and to Yulia Romaniuk for final corrections. The paper was partially supported by grant NSERC 264186.     

论人才强国战略的科学内涵

中国的发展必须坚持以人为本,走人才强国之路.人才强国战略的提出是必然的,是随着客观环境的不断变化所提出的长远性、全局性的战略规划.人才强国战略作为一项国家的重大战略,有着丰富而深刻的科学内涵,其核心是人才兴国,其目标指向是建设现代化强国,其工作重心是建设人才资源强国,其实施需要教育的投入和制度上的创新.     

附认股权证公司债券可行性研究

附认股权证公司债与可转债是属于同一类别具有特定功能的金融产品,具有可分离的独特优势.从我国资本市场的现状及未来的发展趋势看,附认股权证公司债的推出具有较强的现实意义,而且推出的各项条件已经成熟.     

在收与支的联系中构建依法诚信纳税格局

《在收与支的联系中构建依法诚信纳税格局》中高培勇教授从今年税收宣传月活动的主题——“依法诚信纳税,共建小康社会”说开去,认为依法诚信纳税实际指的是政府取得收入的过程,共建小康社会则指的是政府拨付支出的过程。围绕税收而形成的各有关行为主体之间的税收关系,均表现为“权力与义务的对称”。让纳税人从这个角度来认识税收,定位、体会税收,直至享有对政府提供公共物品或服务的知情权、监督权,可能是在当前的形势下,提升纳税人的纳税意识、构建依法诚信纳税格局的一条必由之路。     

跨国公司对我国汽车合资企业控制分析

跨国汽车公司以国际直接投资(FDI)方式建立合资企业是我国汽车产业利用外资的主要形式.在实际运行中,股权比例的安排并不等于实际控制权的分配,合资企业对合资双方相关资源依赖性的强弱决定了合资双方的实际控制权.跨国汽车公司借助技术垄断优势,通过双方合资时的约定或日后实际运作中的设计安排,以非股权约束的方式来实现对合资企业的实际控制.     

On ratio estimates in simple random sampling with some practical applications

Abstract

The distribution of a ratio of two statistical variables has long been of gr,eat interest, especially with regard to the practical application within different branches. Several authors have also been interested in this subject, and a number of articles have been written on this problem on the basis of different assumptions. This problem seems now again to have been actualized by new experiences (ref. 2, 3,4) in the statistical sampling methods.     

我国收入分配面临的主要问题及其对策

本文梳理了党的十六大以来我国陆续出台的与收入分配相关的各项政策,从宏观层面分析了当前我国收入分配领域存在的主要问题,提出了深化收入分配制度改革的政策建议。     

关联交易中会计信息与计税基础的趋同性研究

我国企业财务会计信息服务对象的变迁反映出会计准则中多重计量属性所引致的会计规范和税收法规在相关交易规定上存在的差异。而依据税收透明度及企业所得税法提供的相关资料两方面的要求,计税依据与会计信息指标非常必要保持一致。本文认为,关联交易会计计量与计税基础在关联关系判定标准、关联交易认定内容等方面存在差异,应该将关联关系扩大到个人,并将关联企业认定的控制标准设定为20%。     

On perpetual American put valuation and first-passage in a regime-switching model with jumps

In this paper we consider the problem of pricing a perpetual American put option in an exponential regime-switching Lévy model. For the case of the (dense) class of phase-type jumps and finitely many regimes we derive an explicit expression for the value function. The solution of the corresponding first-passage problem under a state-dependent level rests on a path transformation and a new matrix Wiener–Hopf factorization result for this class of processes. Research supported by the Nuffield Foundation, grant NAL/00761/G, and EPSRC grant EP/D039053/1.     

金字塔集团不同层级公司成本粘性差异及其成因的实证分析

本文以2003-2014年中国A股上市公司年度数据为样本,研究了金字塔集团不同层级公司成本粘性差异及其成因。结果发现:公司距离最终控制人的层级数(下文简称金字塔层级)越多,成本粘性程度越高,此关系在公司融资约束程度较低、管理层不持有公司股份、股权集中度较低时更加明显,此关系在公司收入持续下降时无显著变化;中介机制分析表明,金字塔层级增加会通过增加管理费用率、过度投资而提高成本粘性。这些结果说明,金字塔层级增加是通过恶化管理层代理问题而提高了成本粘性,没有证据表明金字塔层级通过影响资源调整成本和管理层乐观主义而提高了成本粘性。本文既丰富了成本粘性影响因素方面的研究,也丰富了金字塔集团经济后果方面的研究。     

试论多媒体技术在个性化英语课堂教学中的合理应用

随着英语教学改革的发展与深入,语境化教学越来越受到重视.在教学中,利用计算机多媒体辅助教学系统能较便利地展现感性材料,创设最佳情境,从而获得最佳的教学效果.然而,如不注重其合理应用,必将导致喧宾夺主,过犹不及的后果.本文探讨了合理使用计算机辅助教学于英语课堂教学中应注意的几个方面.     

On the probability of ruin in the collective risk theory for insurance enterprises with oly negative risk sums

Abstract

1. The determination of the probability that an insurance company once in the future will be brought to ruin is a problem of great interest in insurance mathematics. If we know this probability, it does not only give us a possibility to estimate the stability of the insurance company, but we may also decide which precautions, in the form of f. ex. reinsurance and loading of the premiums, should be taken in order to make the probability of ruin so small that in practice no ruin is to be feared.     

涉外企业所得税管理中存在的问题、成因及应对措施

针对近年来涉外企业所得税收入呈下降趋势和管理中存在的问题，深入基层开展调查研究，揭示了涉外企业所得税管理上存在问题的内外部原因。下面就从强化征管的角度，谈谈目前涉外企业所得税管理中存在问题的成因以及加强管理的应对措施。 涉外企业所得税管理中存在的问题及成因……