Climate Change and Tourism: An Overview

This paper presents an overview of the relationship between tourism and global climate change. On the one hand, the tourism industry may be one of the greatest economic victims of climate change. Yet, on the other hand, the broader tourism sector is also a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. This study traces the evolution of academic interest in tourism and climate change. Growth in this area has tracked growth in interest in climate change in general, with tourism-related papers representing consistently about 0.5% of the published research on climate change.     

Attitudes of Tourism Students to the Environment and Climate Change

This paper reports on a global study of the attitudes of students studying in senior year and first-year postgraduate tourism and hospitality subjects to tourism and its relationship with the environment and climate change. The study determined that students are generally concerned about environmental degradation, feel knowledgeable about climate change, are concerned that it will become an even larger issue in the next 5 years and, generally, appreciate that tourism is a major contributor to carbon emissions. Moreover, some 70% had changed their behavior in the past 3 years to reduce their environmental impacts. However, specificity of knowledge about the causes of climate change was limited, which is symptomatic of a broader lack of detailed knowledge about environmental degradation, which in turn translates into rather generic behavior changes. Most significantly, less than 13% of students have changed their vacation patterns out of concern for the environment, with only a small minority intending to modify their travel patterns in the future.     

Climate change in Northern Sweden: intra-regional perceptions of vulnerability among winter-oriented tourism businesses

Climate change is a potential threat to society and business. Although research has noted that the tourism sector may be robust on the macro scale, significant losses at local levels have been suggested. This paper examines Upper Norrland, in Northern Sweden, by measuring the perceptions of winter-oriented tourism entrepreneurs. Their perceptions of potential threats from climate change are assessed, including how entrepreneurs view the future, in terms of climate change impacts and sustainability of the region as a winter-tourism destination. A quantitative survey of entrepreneurs (n = 63) gave responses along geographical and operator dimensions to reveal local differences within the Upper Norrland region, showing the coastland to be perceived as more exposed to change than inland areas. Venue-based businesses see climate change as a higher priority than activity-based, potentially mobile, businesses, regardless of their location. The general perception among businesses is that climate change will not drastically impact the tourism sector over the next 10 years. A basic model for mapping local differences is outlined to stimulate further study of the under-researched intra-regional nuances in climate change and tourism research. A case is made for regional planners to use this tool and to educate local businesses on adaptation techniques.     

Behavioral Adaptation of Alpine Skiers to Climate Change: Examining Activity Involvement and Place Loyalty

This study employed a visitor survey to analyze the influence that changing climatic conditions have on the substitution behaviors of alpine skiers (activity, spatial, temporal). It further focuses on the role that activity involvement plays in influencing behavioral adaptations (i.e., substitution) and also the extent to which place loyalty is affected. The Modified Involvement Scale (MIS) was used to segment respondents based on high, medium, and low levels of leisure involvement with activity. Highly involved skiers were more likely to change their skiing behavior as a result of poor snow conditions than were less involved individuals. Pritchard's Psychological Commitment Index (PCI) provided evidence that less involved skiers exhibit lower levels of commitment to particular service providers than do highly involved individuals.     

气候变化对旅游影响的研究进展

气候变化与旅游相互影响作为一个新兴研究领域引起了越来越多研究者的关注。文章从气候变化对旅游影响的研究历程、研究方法和研究热点、旅游对气候变化的影响等方面对气候变化与旅游相互影响的研究进行了综述与展望。     

Using a Regional Tourism Adaptation Framework to Determine Climate Change Adaptation Options for Victoria's Surf Coast

This paper reports research into adaptation to climate change for regional tourism destinations. It explains the application of a regional tourism adaptation framework model to the Surf Coast destination, within the state of Victoria, Australia. It then examines the usefulness of the framework model in guiding a vulnerability resilience assessment of the destination and developing strategies to increase the destinations resilience, resistance and readiness. A Delphi study was conducted, using a panel of experts, to determine the major risks and opportunities for tourism in the region as well as appropriate adaptation options. Although many of the findings focused on the best way to manage the negative bio-physical impacts of climate change, such as increased bushfire risk or more frequent and intense storms, several opportunities also became apparent including the potential to reduce seasonality. Tourism destination management is already a complex area and the introduction of climate change provides yet another challenge for managers and policy-makers. Consequently, the development and use of a regional adaptation framework can play an important role in assisting destination planning and management.     

国际旅游科学研究新热点:全球气候变化对旅游业影响研究

伴随着全球气候变化科学研究的兴起,近年来全球气候变化对旅游业的影响逐渐成为国际旅游科学研究的新热点。本文划分了气候变化与旅游业研究阶段,按照响应—适应—缓解的系统流程,从全球气候变化对旅游目的地、旅游流、旅游者心理与行为、旅游产业系统的影响以及旅游活动对气候变化的缓解与适应等5个方面进行了综述。最后,总结归纳了国际气候变化对旅游业影响研究的一些基本特点,以期为我国在此领域的研究提供一些有益的启示。     

A report on the Paris Climate Change Agreement and its implications for tourism: why we will always have Paris

Sustained international diplomatic efforts culminated in the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement by 196 countries in December 2015. This paper provides an overview of the key provisions of the agreement that are most relevant to the tourism sector: much strengthened and world-wide participation in greenhouse gas emission reduction ambitions, an enduring framework for increased ambitions over time, improved transparency in emissions reporting and a greater emphasis on climate risk management through adaptation. The declared carbon emission reduction ambitions of the tourism sector and international aviation are found to be broadly compatible with those of the Paris Agreement, however, claims of reduced emission intensity in the tourism sector since 2005 and a roadmap by which emission reduction ambitions for 2020 and 2035 might realistically be achieved both remain equivocal. The need for international tourism leadership to improve sectoral scale emission monitoring capacity to meet the increasing requirements for transparency, convene an assessment of risks from climate change and climate policy, foster greater collaboration on destination climate resilience and accelerate technological, policy and social innovation to put tourism firmly on a pathway to the low-carbon economy are all emphasized, as is the need for dialogue between tourism and tourism researchers.     

Changes in demand for tourism with climate change: a case study of visitation patterns to six ski resorts in Australia

Tourism in ski resorts depends on snow cover which is expected to decline with climate change. This paper explores hypotheses about demand side responses to climatic change by analyzing patterns of visitation in recent years with differing snow cover. Snow cover and visitation patterns to six resorts which differ in altitude and size in Victoria, Australia, were compared between a slightly warm and much drier year (2006, +0.6°C and ?50% precipitation to longer-term averages) to a more typical year (2007) and to nine earlier years. Snowmaking partly offset declines in natural snow cover in 2006, although there were still fewer days with snow on the ground. The number of visitor days was much lower in 2006 than the previous nine years for the three lowest-altitude resorts (?69%), while it actually increased (+10%) in the highest altitude resort where there were fewer visitors (?17%), but they stayed longer. Snowmaking is already critical for ski resorts in low snow years. With warmer conditions, lower-altitude resorts may not receive enough income due to reduced visitation to offset snowmaking costs, while higher-altitude resorts may have a short-term gain, but become uneconomical in the longer term.     

Climate variability and water use on golf courses: optimization opportunities for a warmer future

Global freshwater resources are under ever-increasing pressure that is anticipated to be exacerbated by climate change. Increasing demands for water use will require tourism to improve and disclose its monitoring and reporting, particularly for water-intensive activities such as golf tourism. Using a sample of 129 courses from Ontario (Canada), this is the first study to examine golf course characteristics that influence water use variability (e.g. dominant soil type, ownership type, and age of course). By establishing “best in class” water use efficiency among common types of courses, potential water extraction savings of 35% are identified (or 6.75 billion litres annually). Importantly, the study also accounts for the influence of climate variability on water use by comparing a climatically normal season (for the 1981–2010 period) with an anomalously dry and warm season to examine the potential impact of future climate change on water use (i.e. reduced precipitation and higher temperatures). Average water use effectively almost doubles during an anomalously dry-warm season (increasing from 59.6 to 94.2 million litres), accentuating the importance of achieving potential water use efficiencies. In addition to best management practices, the need to reshape public perceptions of golf course aesthetics is also discussed.     

Responding to Climate Change: Australian Tourism Industry Perspectives on Current Challenges and Future Directions

Like other destinations in the Asia Pacific region, Australia's tourism industry is vulnerable to the impacts and implications of climate change. The country's reliance on its natural “product”, which is potentially under threat, coupled with the potential for changing consumer demand patterns, particularly in long-haul markets, should be concerning for the tourism industry. Yet, the tourism industry has been criticised for its short-term, profit orientation and lack of action regarding climate change [Hall, C.M., & Higham, J. (Eds.) (2005). Tourism, recreation and climate change. Clevedon: Channel View Publications; Jenkins, K., & Nicholls, S. (2010). The impacts of climate variability and potential climate change on tourism business in Torbay, England and implications for adaptation. Tourism Analysis, 15(1), 17–30; Viner, D. (2006). Tourism and its interactions with climate change. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 317–415]. However, little empirical research has investigated the tourism industry's perspectives regarding climate change, neither the relative importance of climate change vis-a-vis other challenges facing the sector nor the strategies and actions required by the tourism industry to facilitate adaptation and mitigation strategies. It is against this background that a qualitative study was undertaken with expert representatives from both the public and private sectors of Australia's tourism industry to explore the industry's perspectives on current challenges and future directions with regards to climate change. The findings show that while the industry is aware of the importance of climate change, it is not seen as a pressing issue, particularly in light of the global economic crisis, and there has been little action by the industry in response to climate change. Respondents noted that the tourism industry is largely relying on, and waiting for, government intervention and leadership for the sector with regards to climate change.     

Behavioural adaptation to climate change among winter alpine tourists: an analysis of tourist motivations and leisure substitutability

Understanding market responses to climate change impacts has important implications for the sustainability of Australia's winter tourism destinations. Utilising a framework incorporating push–pull tourist motivations and the theory of leisure substitutability, this study sought to explore how winter tourists in Australia will adapt to changes in snow cover in Australia's alpine regions under future climate change scenarios. The results of a questionnaire completed by 231 respondents indicated that tourist motivations were related to behavioural adaptation, and that there is a general preference among the current winter market for spatial substitution in the event of poor snow. Those motivated by recreation specialisation or snow-related attributes were likely to opt for spatial substitution, while tourists motivated by self-expression and après ski activities displayed resilience to poor snow conditions. The results demonstrate a clear division between leisure-driven tourists who valued participation in sport, and experience-driven tourists, who displayed higher resilience to reduced snow under projected climate change scenarios. These results have practical implications for winter tourism destinations, both in terms of targeting experience-driven tourists in the case of reduced snow as well as the longer term sustainability and viability of winter tourism destinations.     

Changes to Climate and Visitor Behaviour: Implications for Vulnerable Landscapes in the North West Region of England

Many high quality landscapes can be found in the North West region of England, including those of international significance such as the Lake District National Park. These natural assets are recognised by the regional tourism strategy as particularly important, as they are a major determinant for visitors within, and to, the region. However, with the strategy geared towards increasing visitor numbers, there is a substantial challenge to be faced in the future: how to maintain the quality of an environment that is under combined pressure from both visitor numbers and climate change? Focusing on two landscape types considered to be the most vulnerable to a changing climate, the coastal zone and the uplands, this paper presents ‘downscaled’ climate change scenarios, and provides an assessment of how a combination of climate and non-climate factors are likely to impact these vulnerable landscapes in the future. The case study analysis is largely drawn from a series of ‘risk’ workshops held with key regional stakeholders.     

制度变迁对中国旅游经济增长的贡献——基于市场化进程的视角

面向市场化的制度变迁是推动中国旅游经济发展的重要力量。文章以市场化指数表征制度变迁,利用各省份的市场化指数与旅游经济面板数据,从时空角度剖析中国制度变迁对旅游经济增长的贡献。通过ADF单位根、E-G两步协整模型和格兰杰因果模型检验显示,从1997年到2009年,中国市场化进程与旅游经济增长存在稳定的协整关系,制度变迁对旅游经济增长存在单向的格兰杰因果作用关系;固定效应模型回归显示,市场化对旅游经济增长的贡献效应明显,这一时期全要素生产率增长的14.47%和旅游经济增长的4.45%是由市场化改革贡献的,且随着市场化进程的推进,贡献效应还在加强;制度变迁对不同区域的旅游经济增长呈现显著的正效应,但具有较大的区域差异,总体而言,市场化水平越高的区域,旅游经济越发达,区域的市场化变迁程度越强,对旅游经济增长的边际贡献度越大。中国的市场化体制改革还远没有完成,改革依然是中国尤其是中西部省份旅游经济增长的后发优势。     

The Camping Climate Index (CCI): The development,validation, and application of a camping-sector tourism climate index

Camping is a nature-based tourism activity where individuals spend one or more night away from home in an outdoor setting. Inherent in the definition are time and space, as well as exposure to natural elements such as weather or extremes. This study introduces the novel Camping Climate Index (CCI) to explore the impacts of weather and climatic variability on camping occupancy and optimal camping conditions. Daily meteorological data for 29 for-profit camping locations is analyzed and matched with daily camping occupancy data for the tent, recreational vehicle, and cabin categories. The CCI is empirically validated for camping behaviors compared to other tourism indices including the Tourism Climate Index and Holiday Climate Index. This study is the first to create an index using observed camping occupancy data for the three categories of camping matched with daily weather data that also captures the overriding effects of extreme/adverse weather events.     

Tourists' Perception of International Air Travel's Impact on the Global Climate and Potential Climate Change Policies

Tourism's increasing contribution to climate change, especially through the use of air travel, is now acknowledged. This study seeks to explore tourists' knowledge and awareness of aviation's impact on the climate, their sense of personal responsibility and their reactions to specific climate change policies. A focus group approach – informed by interviews with international tourists leaving New Zealand – was chosen to involve tourists in discussing climate change and travel. In the focus groups, three policy options were discussed: voluntary initiatives, a global air travel charge and a per capita carbon budget. The global air travel tax emerged as a realistic compromise between restricting travel and achieving emissions reduction. When discussing individual responsibility for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, tourists distinguished between their travel and their everyday life, where responsibility for mitigation was perceived to be greater. The value of freedom to travel is firmly established in the minds of many tourists and limiting travel is considered unacceptable by the (hyper) mobile tourists who participated in this research. Only major societal changes to bring about behavioural change seem likely to reduce air travel's contribution to climate change.     

Importance of early snowfall for Swedish ski resorts: Evidence based on monthly data

Since the early 1970s, Sweden has experienced an almost uninterrupted surge in demand for downhill skiing. However, from the 2009/2010 season, lift ticket sales have stagnated. With the use of monthly data, this study investigates the role of snow depth and economic factors in the demand for downhill skiing in Sweden. The empirical approach is based on a seemingly unrelated regression model, allowing snow conditions, but not economic factors to differ during the season. The estimates show that an early season increase in natural snow depth by 10 cm raises the growth rate of lift ticket sales by 9 percentage points in the same period. Further, the results indicate that downhill skiing is characterised by low income and price elasticities, implying weak impacts on demand for such changes. The price increase of lift tickets exceeds that of the inflation rate. The recent decline in demand might indicate changed leisure preferences.     

物候学在旅游地理理论与实践中的应用基础和前景

在20世纪80年代应用地理大发展中应运而生的旅游地理学,因发展历程尚短、理论方法体系不十分健全和完善,对持续快速发展的旅游业支撑乏力,迫切需要从相邻学科吸收养分。物候学与旅游地理学交叉性质明显,可多方面支撑其发展。本文系统梳理了物候学对旅游业的学科支撑作用、具体实践应用领域、服务于旅游业高质量发展的6个维度以及气候变化对物候旅游资源和相关行业的影响。主要结论有：（1）物候概念有助于系统整合旅游系统中自然、人文和社会要素的相关旅游资源,而物候学应用亦可有效提升区域旅游业的服务支持子系统、交通子系统以及医疗健康子系统的效用;（2）物候学在旅游业发展中的实践应用主要涉及利用植物季相进行景观设计、观赏季划分与观赏期预报、体验类生态旅游活动的时间规划、花粉浓度预报与冰雪灾情预警以及旅游线路设计五大方面;（3）物候学可在要素、行业、过程、时空、方位和部门6个维度上服务于旅游业的高质量发展;（4）物候旅游资源和相关产业对于气候变化响应敏感,相关研究人员在未来应注重气候变化对其的风险影响研究,深入分析游客感知、行为反应所受影响,并积极参与中长期产业发展规划以及行业报告编制。从学科发展和产业应用的角度讲,物候学可为旅游学的研究提供自然科学的理论支撑,也为当今气候变化背景下旅游业的可持续发展提供科学指导。     

制度变迁与中国旅游产业的成长阶段和发展对策

我国旅游产业的成长历史表明，旅游管理体制变迁是产业演进的重要动因；而不同时期的不同类型的制度创新都是基于特定的环境和诱因的。未来我国旅游业的发展应该注重管理体制、市场组织和管理理念的创新。     

Environmental change,resilience, and adaptation in nature-based tourism: conceptualizing the social-ecological resilience of birdwatching tour operations

Resilience theory has emerged as a holistic concept well suited to analyzing tourism systems and which promises important insights into the sustainability of tourism destinations in the face of accelerating global environmental change (GEC). This article presents empirical research into the social-ecological resilience of tour operators using the case study destination of the Otago Peninsula, Dunedin, New Zealand. It addresses the following research question: How do birdwatching tour operators build resilience to drivers of environmental change, including climatic drivers, into their operations? Qualitative interviews with providers of a specific nature tourism sector activity – birdwatching – were conducted with stakeholders including tour operators, conservation organizations, and local government members. The findings highlight current and possible future challenges to birdwatching tourism on the Otago Peninsula. The paper introduces a conceptual framework which highlights the tour operators’ main coping strategies in response to key perceived social-ecological system (SES) drivers of change. Overall, tour operators perceived their main social-ecological resilience to be the diversity of the species of the Otago Peninsula, their business experience, and the strength of their local stakeholder network to respond to SES crises.