On economic evaluation of directional forecasts

It is commonly accepted that information is helpful if it can be exploited to improve a decision making process. In economics, decisions are often based on forecasts of the upward or downward movements of the variable of interest. We point out that directional forecasts can provide a useful framework for assessing the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success measures) are properly formulated to account for the realized signs and realized magnitudes of directional movements. We discuss a general approach to (directional) forecast evaluation which is based on the loss function proposed by Granger, Pesaran and Skouras. It is simple to implement and provides an economically interpretable loss/success functional framework. We show that, in addition, this loss function is more robust to outlying forecasts than traditional loss functions. As such, the measure of the directional forecast value is a readily available complement to the commonly used squared error loss criterion.     

Relaxing IIA and the effect on individual power

We allow departures from IIA in Arrow’s framework. Our measure of the extent of a departure is the amount of information needed to socially order a pair of alternatives. We also propose a measure of the scope of an individual’s power. The scope of at least one individual’s power increases in step with a reduction in the amount of information that has to be gathered to socially order two alternatives. This result is also established for correspondences, which select a subset of the feasible set as a function of individual preferences.     

Choosing among alternative technologies: conditions for assuring the feasibility of an input–output database or scenario

The conceptual reach of the basic input–output modeling framework is substantially extended by new models that incorporate the economic logic of comparative advantage as the basis for the endogenous choice among alternative production technologies. This paper establishes procedures that define the conditions under which the database used for scenario analysis in this extended framework assures the existence of an economically feasible solution. We provide a criterion for structural feasibility, the property established by the Hawkins–Simon condition for the basic input–output model, and introduce a criterion for scale feasibility. The logic underlying the tests is illustrated by numerical examples based on the Rectangular Choice-of-Technology model and database. These procedures can be particularly useful for incorporating engineering and other technical sources of information into multi-regional input–output databases; they can also provide substantial underlying detail about individual technologies, sectors, and factors of production for both feasible and infeasible scenarios.     

The Role of Public Information in Corporate Social Responsibility

Many of the attributes that make a good “socially responsible” (SR) are credence attributes that cannot be learned by consumers either through search or experience. Consumers, then, use for their purchasing decisions “noisy” information about these attributes obtained from potentially contradictory channels (media, advertisement, NGOs). In this paper we model such informational framework and show the positive relationship between the accuracy of the information transmitted to consumers and corporate social responsibility. We also show that a firm may be tempted to add noise to the information channel (through lobbying of the media), which might reduce the supply of the SR attributes and even harm the firm itself (with lower profits). It might then be profitable to the firm to commit ex ante to not manipulate the information regarding the firm's business practices (e.g., with a partnership with an NGO). Finally, we extend our model to a competition framework endogenizing the number of firms active in the SR segment. We show both that in more transparent markets a larger number of firms will be SR, and that in a market with more intense competition, a higher degree of transparency is required in order to sustain a given number of SR firms.     

Efficient organization of information processing

The paper examines the application of the concept of economic efficiency to organizational issues of collective information processing in decision making. Information processing is modeled in the framework of the dynamic parallel processing model of associative computation with an endogenous setup cost of the processors. The model is extended to include the specific features of collective information processing in the team of decision makers which may lead to an error in data analysis. In such a model, the conditions for efficient organization of information processing are defined and the architecture of the efficient structures is considered. We show that specific features of collective decision making procedures require a broader framework for judging organizational efficiency than has traditionally been adopted. In particular, and contrary to the results available in economic literature, we show that there is no unique architecture for efficient information processing structures, but a number of various efficient forms. The results indicate that technological progress resulting in faster data processing (ceteris paribus) will lead to more regular information processing structures. However, if the relative cost of the delay in data analysis increases significantly, less regular structures could be efficient. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Learning and coordination with dispersed information

We analyse adaptive learning in a model of incomplete and dispersed information, with externalities and strategic interactions. We build on the framework proposed by Angeletos and Pavan (2007a) and extend it to a dynamic multi-period setting where agents need to learn to coordinate. We derive conditions under which adaptive learning obtains in such setting and show that, when actions are strategic substitutes, the information structure affects the speed of convergence: while more precise private information is beneficial, better public information has negative effects. We also show that adaptive learning dynamics converge to the Bayesian Nash equilibrium, which means that agents can learn to act strategically by relying only on observable (exogenous) information.     

参数不稳定下利差在宏观经济与货币政策中的应用

本文在参数不稳定的情况下考察利差对通货膨胀、经济增长的信息作用,并分析包含利差的混合货币政策规则。基于贝叶斯区制转移模型（MSBVAR）的分析发现：期限利差和信用利差对通货膨胀、经济增长有影响,宏观经济波动使得利差的信息作用存在参数不稳定性,在经济下行时对经济增长有负向信号作用。信用利差对通胀的预测作用比期限利差对通胀的预测作用更强。期限利差和信用利差都在货币政策规则中有参数不稳定性的信息作用。     

The implications of financial frictions and imperfect knowledge in the estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy

In this paper, I study how alternative assumptions about expectation formation can modify the implications of financial frictions for the real economy. I incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism into a version of the Smets and Wouters (2007) DSGE framework and explore the properties of the model assuming, on the one hand, complete rationality of expectations and, alternatively, several learning algorithms that differ in terms of the information set used by agents to produce the forecasts. I show that the implications of the financial accelerator for the business cycle may vary depending on the approach to modeling the expectations. The results suggest that the learning scheme based on small forecasting functions is able to amplify the effects of financial frictions relative to the model with Rational Expectations. Specifically, I show that the dynamics of real variables under learning is driven to a significant extent by the time variation of agents’ beliefs about financial sector variables. During periods when agents perceive asset prices as being relatively more persistent, financial shocks lead to more pronounced macroeconomic outcomes. The amplification effect rises as financial frictions become more severe. At the same time, a learning specification in which agents use more information to generate predictions produces very different asset price and investment dynamics. In such a framework, learning cannot significantly alter the real effects of financial frictions implied by the Rational Expectations model.     

A Comparison of Exit and Voice Relationships Under Common Uncertainty

We consider a repeated interaction between a manufacturing firm and a subcontractor. The relationship between the two parties is characterized (1) by moral hazard, and (2) by the fact that they do not have perfect knowledge about the base cost level of the project, which is carried out by a subcontractor (the parties only have identical a priori beliefs). We consider a two-period model where the players can update their estimate of the base cost level according to incoming information. Exit relationships, where the firm signs one-period contracts with different subcontractors, are compared with voice relationships, where both partners commit to a two-period interaction and (due to information sharing and face-to-face communication between the partners) additional information about the base cost level is generated. It is shown that in such a dynamic framework with common uncertainty the quality of the additional information plays a crucial role in determining the characteristics of the optimal relationship: voice-based strategies governed by long-term contracts are preferable if the precision of the additional information about the base cost level is high. If the precision of the additional signal is low, exit strategies with frequent changes of the subcontractors are optimal for the manufacturer.     

Economic growth and environmental impact: evaluating alternatives

The environment is no longer to be considered a free good, whether it is utilized for economic growth or is affected by it.This is an exploratory paper attempting to depict a conceptual framework for policy planning embodying growth, environmental and societal variables. The aim is to identify a comprehensive framework and suggest an operationally feasible set of methodologies and processes. In view of the limitations of the current theoretical andmethodological framework, the suggested heuristic approach is an attempt to develop and specify a realistic and convenient process for operational purposes. Moreover, any future developments in theory, methodology, measurement and information is considered to be complementary to, rather than competing with, the proposed framework. The contention is that while the on-going research undertakings are expected to improve the theoretical and methodological framework of the existing body of doctrine, there appears to be a need for a systematic operational framework for policy planning keeping in prospects realism, reasonableness andcertain balances. Sufficient flexibility should be maintained to adjust the particular aspects of the system in light of new information and experience.In summary, the issues of growth and the resultant environmental and societal implications are expounded upon and a conceptual framework is suggested for the process of national priority setting.The desirability of continued growth for the developed and developing countries is predicated upon the premise that environmental and societal variables are to be explicitly embodied in the allocation process so that the composition, structure and the rates of economics growth are compatible with the quality of life (Q/L).     

Does Economic Integration Affect the Structure of Industries? Empirical Evidence from the CEE

In this paper we study the impacts of regional integration on the structure of industries in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) transition economies. Our empirical analysis is based on the economic geography framework, which is able to predict not only the industry location after integration, but also to capture other general equilibrium effects, such as transition to market economy, which turn out to be highly significant in the CEE. Our empirical results complement previous findings that industry location is strongly related to economic integration. We also find that CEE integration of the Council on Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) has distorted the industry location pattern predicted by the underlying economic geography theory. These distortions are higher in those regions that were more integrated in the CMEA. Our ex-ante simulation results suggest a convergence in regional specialisation after CEE integration with the EU.     

Decomposing the effects of crowd-wisdom aggregators: The bias–information–noise (BIN) model

Aggregating predictions from multiple judges often yields more accurate predictions than relying on a single judge, which is known as the wisdom-of-the-crowd effect. However, a wide range of aggregation methods are available, which range from one-size-fits-all techniques, such as simple averaging, prediction markets, and Bayesian aggregators, to customized (supervised) techniques that require past performance data, such as weighted averaging. In this study, we applied a wide range of aggregation methods to subjective probability estimates from geopolitical forecasting tournaments. We used the bias–information–noise (BIN) model to disentangle three mechanisms that allow aggregators to improve the accuracy of predictions: reducing bias and noise, and extracting valid information across forecasters. Simple averaging operates almost entirely by reducing noise, whereas more complex techniques such as prediction markets and Bayesian aggregators exploit all three pathways to allow better signal extraction as well as greater noise and bias reduction. Finally, we explored the utility of a BIN approach for the modular construction of aggregators.     

The Role of Institutional and Economic Factors in the Strategic Use of Non-GAAP Disclosures to Beat Earnings Benchmarks

Abstract

We use hand-collected data for a sample of large European firms to investigate the influence of countries’ institutional and economic factors on managers’ non-generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) disclosures. We find that managers are more likely to use non-GAAP measures to meet or beat earnings benchmarks that GAAP earnings would miss in countries with efficient law and enforcement, strong investor protection, developed financial markets, and good communication and dissemination of information. We also find that managers in countries with developed institutional and economic conditions are more likely to adjust non-GAAP earnings for recurring expenses such as R&D, depreciation, and stock-based compensation expenses. Our findings suggest that in environments in which there is more pressure to achieve earnings benchmarks and less opportunity to manipulate GAAP earnings, managers use more non-GAAP earnings disclosures to meet the benchmarks.     

How do respondents process stated choice experiments? Attribute consideration under varying information load

The popularity of stated choice (SC) experiments has produced many design strategies in which researchers use increasingly more ‘complex’ choice settings to study choice behaviour. When the amount of information to assess increases, we wonder how an individual handles such information in making a choice. Defining the amount of information as the number of attributes associated with each choice set, we investigate how this information is processed as we vary its ‘complexity’. Four ordered heterogeneous logit models are developed, each for an SC design based on a fixed number of attributes, in which the dependent variable defines the number of attributes that are ignored. We find that the degree to which individuals ignore attributes is influenced by the dimensionality of the SC experiment, the deviation of attribute levels from an experienced reference alternative, the use of ‘adding up’ attributes where feasible, the number of choice sets evaluated, and the personal income of the respondent. The empirical evidence supports the view that individuals appear to adopt a range of ‘coping’ strategies that are consistent with how they process information in real markets, and that aligning ‘choice complexity’ with the amount of information to process is potentially misleading. Relevancy is what matters. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Institutional quality and corporate financing decisions around the world

We investigate the influence of the recent comprehensive institutional quality dimensions of Karolyi (2015), such as market capacity, operational efficiency, foreign accessibility, corporate transparency, legal protection, and political stability, on financing decisions of firms across 56 countries between 2000 and 2015. We find that stronger institutional quality or lower fundamental risks in a country ease firms' access to long-term debt, and equity financing. We attribute our results to institutional environments influencing financing decisions by shaping the severity of market frictions, such as agency conflicts and information asymmetry, and transaction costs. As a result, we conclude that any improvement in a country's institutional environment will boost firms' access to long-term financing, and thus longer-term investments that promote countries' economic growth will be more feasible. Our findings are robust to potential endogeneity issues.     

Re-opening after the lockdown: Long-run aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19

Covid-19 has dealt a devastating blow to productivity and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous agents to identify the tradeoffs involved in restoring the economy to its pre-Covid-19 state. Several tradeoffs, both over time, and between key economic variables, are identified, with the feasible speed of successful re-opening being constrained by the transmission of the infection. In particular, while more rapid opening up of the economy will reduce short-run aggregate output losses, it will cause larger long-run output losses, which potentially may be quite substantial if the opening is overly rapid and the virus is not eradicated. More rapid opening of the economy mitigates the increases in both long-run wealth and income inequality, thus highlighting a direct conflict between the adverse effects on aggregate output and its distributional consequences.     

Dynamic analysis of interventions designed to achieve millennium development goals (MDG): The case of Ghana

An increasing number of countries are orientating their development strategies based on the millennium development goals (MDG), a broad set of directives agreed to by the United Nations (UN) in the year 2000. Developing coherent plans to achieve MDG has been complicated by their multidisciplinary nature, and by the complexity of the system being managed. The “system” here is the socio-economic construct within which populations live and operate. In an effort to support this planning process, various approaches have been developed to help realize MDG within specified budgets. The work described here complements the most commonly used approaches by analyzing the impact of alternative interventions in an integrated socio-economic-environmental framework. In doing so, we utilize system dynamics, which is well-suited to support the analysis of dynamic, complex issues such as those that characterize MDG planning. Such an approach allows us to estimate impacts of MDG-related interventions on the economic and demographic development of countries under study, as well as the possible synergies between and amongst selected interventions, e.g., those involving education and health. Results indicate that failure to account for such factors can lead to sub-optimal strategies. Our objective is thus to provide policy-makers with a more comprehensive view of the outcomes generated by alternative MDG interventions, with emphasis on the ability to finance given strategies.     

BALANCE SHEET ECONOMICS OF THE SUBPRIME MORTGAGE CRISIS

As Copeland (1947; 1952) demonstrated with his money-flows accounts more than half a century ago, the balance sheets of economic entities are closely interrelated through a lender–borrower relationship. This paper is an attempt to describe the US subprime mortgage crisis in the framework of ‘balance sheet economics’, which was originally proposed by Stone (1966) and Klein (1977; 1983). Since it is almost impossible to collect all the balance sheets of economic entities, we use flow-of-funds accounts instead to simulate the negative consequences resulting from home mortgage delinquencies. We show that the pass-through sequence converges when the original delinquency is made up by loss of net worth in any of the economic entities. Most of the eventual loss is incurred by ‘Households and Nonprofit Organizations’ and ‘Rest of the World’. A portion of pass-through loss is eventually incurred by foreign countries with excess external assets, such as Japan, Ireland, etc.     

Bankruptcy, Takeovers, and Wage Contracts

Takeovers give raiders the opportunity of breaking implicit contracts inside the firm. If implicit contracts are adopted by workers and management to reach more efficient outcomes, then the possibility of takeovers may cause a welfare loss. We show that, under some conditions, this argument can go through even if the firm and the workers can write explicit and complete contracts. The crucial assumption is that the profitability of the firm is linked to its financial situation, in the sense that a firm which has a high probability of bankruptcy will face fewer opportunities than a financially solid firm. In this framework, the possibility of takeovers imposes constraints on the set of feasible employment contracts, leading to inefficient outcomes.     

Two-level national-regional planning and mathematical programming decomposition applied to spatial price equilibrium models2

This paper is concerned with computation strategies related with the quantitative analysis of only a sector of a global economy (e.g. agriculture or energy). Under a ceteris paribus condition on the environment of the sector, and within the hypothetical context of the neoclassical economic theory, it is well known a type of partial equilibrium model that can be cast mathematically into an optimization framework. We attempt here to a typical specification which considers spatially separated markets, that has been called spatial price equilibrium model and that has contained within it many classical transportation problems (one for each commodity). The model is specially suitable for mathematical programming decomposition, resulting regional sybsystems whose coupling variables are the transportation flows. We explore here this structure, discussing two decomposition algorithms with economic interpretations that suggest decentralized procedures for planning. The first—of the price coordination type—is a variant of the Dantzig-Wolfe's principle which is expected to have a low number of cycles of information flow between the master level and the sub-problems (at each cycle it is calculated a series of regional production-consumption responses to alternative prices generated by transhipment problems at the central planning level). The second algorithm specializes the Geoffrion's projection/feasible directions technique, so interpreting the problem solution within the context of a net-output target coordination.