Export sophistication and economic growth: Evidence from China

We consider the effect of export sophistication on economic performance by appealing to regional variation within one single country (China) over the 1997-2009 period. We find evidence in support of Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007), in that regions specializing in more sophisticated goods subsequently grow faster. We find substantial variation in export sophistication at the province and prefecture level, controlling for the level of development, and that this sophistication in turn drives growth. Our results suggest that these gains are limited to the ordinary export activities undertaken by domestic firms: no direct gains result from either processing trade activities or foreign firms, even though these are the main contributors to the global upgrading of China's exports. As such, the extent of assembly trade and foreign entities should be distinguished in order to measure the true movement in a country's technology and the contribution of exports to economic growth.     

Export expansion and economic growth: Further empirical evidence

This paper examines the relationship between export expansion and economic growth in a sample of seventy-three developing countries, using data for the period 1960–1978. It shows that in both groups of low- and middle-income countries, export expansion is associated with better economic performance and that an important cause of this association is the favorable impact of exports on total factor productivity. The paper also demonstrates that the effect of commodity composition of exports on the relationship between export expansion and economic growth is substantial in more advanced developing economies.     

银行业结构与经济增长

With panel data for 28 Chinese provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) during 1985–2002, this paper assesses the effect of banking structure on economic growth. Banking structure is defined as the relative importance of banks of different size in the banking sector. The market share of small banking institutions is taken as a proxy to measure the banking structure. In dealing with the potential endogeneity problem, this paper constructs an instrumental variable for banking structure with the information on the commercialization reform of state-owned banks initiated in 1994. The estimation results from a two-way fixed-effect model show that increases in the market share of small banking institutions enhance economic growth in contemporary China.     

Export and economic growth: Further time series evidence from less-developed countries

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of export-growth linkage in India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand on the basis of time series data from 1973 to 1993. The empirical results indicate that exports have a positive and significant impact on economic growth when a country has achieved some level of economic development. The result also signifies the importance of liberal market policies by pursuing export expansion strategies and by attracting foreign investments.     

交通基础设施、空间溢出与经济增长:来自中国的实证研究

This paper develops an empirical model to test the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on economic growth. It uses spatial econometric techniques and provincial panel data of China from 1993 to 2004 to analyze the contribution of transport infrastructure to the economic growth of local province and its spatial spillover effects on the economic growth of other provinces. The main findings include: (1) Transport infrastructure and economic growth of China show an evident pattern of spatial clustering. They largely congregate in developed eastern coastal regions, forming a gradient gradually diminishing from east to west. (2) Output elasticity of local transport infrastructure is 0.106, between the values calculated by early researchers with time series data and panel data. (3) Spatial output spillovers from transport infrastructure are largely positive, but evidences of negative spatial spillovers are also found with population density spatial weights matrix model.      

都市圈经济增长的空间相依性研究——基于中国三大都市圈的实证研究

There are a number of theoretical reasons why cities interact with each other. Such spatial interdependence has been largely ignored by the empirical literature with only a couple of recent papers accounting for such issues in their estimation. This paper takes spatial dependence panel data models in specifying and testing to analyze three metropolitan growth behaviors in China. We find that controlling for fixed-effects allows us to disentangle the effect of spatial dependence from that of spatial heterogeneity and that of omitted variables. The estimated relationships of traditional determinants of urbanization are robust to inclusion of terms to capture spatial interdependence, even though such interdependence is estimated to be significant. Additionally, the three metropolitan areas might be said to represent three distinct stages during the urbanization of China.      

人口结构转型、人口红利演进与出口增长——来自中国城市层面的经验证据

本文基于2000年、2005年和2010年三次全国人口普查数据,构建城市层面包含人口流动信息的人口结构指标,从微观层面研究人口结构变动对出口的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,以劳动人口比或抚养比为表征的城市人口结构变动会显著影响出口,城市劳动人口比的提升或城市抚养比的下降会显著促进出口。对影响机制的实证检验表明,城市人口结构变动对出口的影响会伴随用工成本的上升而逐渐弱化,即存在人口结构变动影响出口的成本效应。城市人口结构变动对出口的影响会伴随人力资本水平的提升而逐渐弱化,即存在人口结构变动影响出口的人力资本效应。城市人口结构变动对出口的影响主要源于对劳动力投入的依赖性。本文的研究结论意味着,促进人力资本提升,加快实现人口红利向人才红利的转变,是应对人口老龄化背景下中国出口转型升级的重要思路。     

能源消费与经济增长:基于广东省的实证分析

运用协整模型和格兰杰因果关系模型分析广东省1987年以来能源消费与经济增长的关系.结果表明:(1) 广东省能源消费和经济增长关系显著;(2)能源消费是经济增长的单方向格兰杰原因;(3)这种长期关系是稳定的 ,并没有随时间而发生结构性变化.所以,广东经济增长过分地依靠能源消费.     

The effect of the Internet on economic growth: Evidence from cross-country panel data

Using cross-country panel data, we found evidence that the Internet plays a positive and significant role in economic growth after investment ratio, government consumption ratio, and inflation were used as control variables in the growth equation.     

Energy prices, energy conservation, and economic growth: Evidence from the postwar United States

The effects of energy prices and energy conservation on economic growth have been examined empirically for the postwar U.S. economy. A vector autoregressive model includes real GDP, real capital, labor, real energy prices, and the Divisia energy index. A key feature of our finding is that some damaging effects of energy conservation on the macroeconomy are statistically insignificant in the short run, and the insignificant short-run effects are quickly enervated over time. Alternative measures of energy use also suggest that energy conservation has no significant impact on real output growth. The findings are generally consistent with the neoclassical position that real economic growth of the United States is neutral with respect to changes in energy use. One exception is the case that energy prices are omitted from the model.     

村庄选举和收入分配--来自8省48村的证据

运用1986—2002年间8省48村和家庭的调查数据,本文研究了村庄选举的引进如何影响村一级的收入分配,发现引进选举制度使村级基尼系数降低6·4%—8%。我们也分析了选举的时间效应,发现首届选举后的第3—6年间,选举降低收入分配差距的效果最显著。这些结论对正确地认识和完善村庄选举具有重要的参考意义。     

地方政府消费支出与经济增长非线性门限关系研究——来自我国省级面板数据的经验证据

以我国31个省(市、自治区)1998~2008年间平衡面板数据为样本,运用面板门限模型,以实际GDP中政府消费支出所占的比重作为衡量指标进行门限测试,对地方政府消费支出与经济增长的关系进行实证研究。结果表明存在单一门限效果,其门限值为19.93%,门限值两边影响系数分别为正相关、负相关,并且都显著,即存在一正一负的非线性关系。因此,我国各级政府要合理安排政府消费支出,实现经济健康稳定增长。     

净出口的非线性增长贡献——基于1995—2011年中国省级面板数据的实证考察

计量经济学有关净出口同经济增长相关关系性质的已有研究,本质上是从国民收入核算语境中需求一侧展开的且被定义为经典的线性关系。本文尝试从供给侧纳入贸易要素进而实现增长核算模型的拓展,并根据数学理论和方式构建GDP同净出口依存度之间非线性关系的多层次识别准则。基于所构建的理论模型,本文采用1995—2011年中国省级面板数据,运用时空相关面板数据模型,实证检验了净出口与经济增长的非线性关系及其区域异质性表现;依据其非线性关系的数学性质,讨论了净出口作用于经济增长速度的临界转变点和推动实际经济增长的闭区间形式,结果还发现经济开放度决定净出口作用于经济增长作用区间的地区差异,同时延展净出口推动经济增长的历史轨迹。其政策含义是,相对地扩大进口不仅可以推动对外贸易趋向平衡,而且还将有助于经济增长。     

FDI, domestic capital and economic growth: Evidence from panel data at China’s provincial level

Based on panel data at the provincial level in China, this paper found that direct effects foreign direct investment (FDI) had on economic growth were of insignificance. However, through improving technical efficiency and “crowding” in domestic investment, FDI produced positive effects on China’s economy. The state sector still played a major part in the total fixed investment, therefore, direct effects on growth were significant. Although private sector was increasingly important for the whole economy, it had no direct influences on economic growth. Meanwhile, neither the state sector nor private sector made contribution to the improvement on technical efficiency. __________ Translated from Shijie Jingji Wenhui 世界经济文汇 (World Economic Papers), 2006, (4): 27–43     

Crime and growth convergence: Evidence from Mexico

Scholars have often argued that crime hinders growth, but the empirical literature assessing such an effect is scarce. By exploiting cross-municipal income and crime data for Mexico, in this study we find evidence indicating that drug-related crime indeed deters growth.     

出口、异质性与企业生产率——来自中国企业层面的证据

文章基于自我选择效应和出口中学效应假说,利用中国企业面板数据,从超越对数生产函数出发,纳入出口状态变量,分别采用固定效应估计、系统广义矩估计和Olley-Pakes半参数估计法克服潜在的同步性偏差和选择偏差问题,在从微观角度充分控制企业异质性的背景下,深入考察出口行为与我国企业生产率之间的作用机理。研究发现,出口企业的生产率相对非出口企业高出20%-30%左右,我国出口贸易存在显著的出口中学效应;而对自我选择效应的检验结果警示,本土企业以低劳动力成本而非高生产率作为出口竞争优势切入全球价值链低端,转变贸易增长方式是保证中国开放经济长期可持续增长的重要保障。     

Democracy and economic outcomes: Evidence from the superstars of modern art

This paper analyses the impact of the political environment on the value of artistic outcomes as measured by the price of paintings produced over the period from 1820 to 2007. The analysis is based on a unique dataset encompassing a global sample of 273 superstars of modern art born between 1800 and 1945, auction results of their paintings, and data on the political environment in the respective production countries. Controlling for a variety of economic and hedonic variables, there is a statistically significant, positive link between the level of democracy and the value of artistic output. Moreover, we find that democracy has a significant positive impact both on the density of superstar painters and the collective artistic human capital in a country.     

Export instability,expansion and market concentration: A methodological interpretation

An analysis of the interrelationships among export instability, expansion and market concentration exhibited by fourteen Western Pacific countries yields three important and meaningful results. There exists a positive and significant association firstly, between export instability and export growth, secondly between the latter and geographical concentration, and hence thirdly between export fluctuations and market concentration but not in any direct causal manner as has been postulated by the general ‘concensus’. There is also evidence that the United States and Japan tend to provide the best growth potential, as demand sources for exports from Western Pacific area, at least in the near future.     

Population growth and economic growth: a reconsideration

The relationship between population growth and development has long been a controversial topic in the economic development literature. Early work by Hoover and Coale and more recent work by Blanchet suggest that high fertility suppresses per capita income growth. However, recent work by Kelley and Srinivasan are ambivalent about such a neo-Malthusian relationship between population growth and economic growth. The authors examine these conflicting positions. They emphasize that the rates of both population growth and income growth are endogenous variables within a general equilibrium framework. An endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility is then developed. It is found that when all exogenous variables are controlled for, there exists an inverse relation between population growth and economic growth. However, when some exogenous factors change, such as an improvement in technological progress, the relation becomes ambiguous. This suggests that the conflicting findings in the literature may be because of the presence of substantial heterogeneity in unobserved variables across countries and over time in cross-country panel data sets.