Escaping the poverty trap in a developing rural economy

Abstract. In this paper, we examine the economic policies that might allow a developing rural economy to escape from the poverty trap characterized by a subsistence level of per capita consumption in the long run. In our model where labour is combined to land available in fixed quantity to produce a homogeneous good, saving could be made through only having children, the number of which is an endogenous decision. We provide conditions under which the economy runs into a poverty trap, and proceed to analyse the relevant policies in this case. We demonstrate that an escape from this poverty trap is possible through a suitable technology transfer, or an appropriate child‐rearing tax, but not with a foreign manufacturing sector, which increases only temporarily the labour income in this rural economy. JEL classification: J11, O11, O40     

Optimal Management of Soil Quality Stocks and Long-Term Consequences of Land Degradation for Smallholder Farmers in Malawi

While soil degradation has long-term consequences, static models which form the bulk of studies on this topic in Africa, do not account for the inter-temporal dimensions of optimal resource management. This paper used an inter-temporal optimisation framework, which considered soil in a time-dependent resource extraction perspective. We have demonstrated that soil degradation is causing an enormous reduction in productive value of smallholder land in Malawi. Current user cost of soil quality among smallholder farmers, which represents annual loss in productive value of land, was estimated to be US$21 per hectare. Based on this value and land area under smallholder agriculture in Malawi, economic costs of soil degradation among smallholder farmers were estimated to amount to 14% of the agricultural GDP for Malawi. Although smallholder farmers’ current practices are sub-optimal to Steady State solutions, they are above static solutions. This demonstrates that smallholder farmers have some private incentives to invest in the soil quality stock. Smallholder farmers internalise some of the dynamic costs of soil degradation under the current practices. However, a sensitivity analysis on a slightly higher discount rate indicates that SS solutions closely resemble the prevailing smallholder farming practices. This suggests that smallholder farmers may be overexploiting soil quality stock because they have a high time preference. That is, they value the current consumption more than their future consumption and wellbeing. High levels of poverty in Malawi and serious lack of viable alternatives to subsistence farming may be influencing such behaviour. Promoting more viable land use alternatives than subsistence farming and formuling policies that help transform smallholder agriculture into a profitable enterprise will not only increase the cost of degrading the soil, but also encourage farmers to invest in the soil quality stock.     

坚持农地集体所有的思考

本文在系统梳理中国农村改革历程的基础上,指出改革初期,为了满足农民的温饱诉求,党和政府逐渐认同了农民推出的“大包干”做法;温饱问题解决之后,为了满足农民外出从事非农就业的诉求,党和政府赋予农民自主流转其承包土地经营权的权利;现在,为了满足农民享有土地财产权益的诉求,党和政府应赋予农民土地股份的权利,将农村集体土地产权按份共有的改革目标落到实处。股权是集体经济的基础。改革初期以含义模糊的承包权替代含义清晰的土地股权,是为了达成改革共识;现在以含义清晰的土地股权替代含义模糊的土地承包权,是改革深化和认识与时俱进的结果。     

失地农民教育培训的政策保障系统初探

在城市化快速发展进程中,大量农村土地被征收转用,农民失去了可维持生计的保障。失地农民受教育程度不高,相关职业技能水平低下,而且社会保障制度不健全,使他们处于劳动力市场上竞争的弱势地位。根据国际经验,促使失地农民摆脱弱势地位的有效措施是对其进行教育培训,这不仅能直接提高其市场竞争能力,而且能间接引导其走向未来发展之路。文章从教育政策、税收金融政策、财政与土地政策等方面分别探讨了失地农民教育培训的政策保障系统。通过这些政策的组合与创新,充分发挥正效应,减少征地冲突和障碍,从而达到提高失地农民培训效果,提升其自身发展的动力和能力,改善生活质量,适应城市生活以及满足再就业教育的需求,进而保障失地农民的可持续生计。     

储备土地增值机理与收益测算研究

本文运用实证研究方法探讨了土地增量储备过程中的土地增值机理与土地增值收益测算,以便于确定增值收益分配。依据土地增值原理,可以将土地增值分为“相对增值”和公共增值两部分,并建立“相对增值”和公共增值的计算模型。利用重庆市近年的土地储备交易数据和相关资料,测算出近年来农民集体在土地征收环节的相对增值约占到总增值量的23％,而公共增值约占77％。研究结果显示,现行土地征地补偿制度对农民利益损害严重,应改革征地制度,保障增量储备土地增值收益的合理分配。     

Dependency traps in self‐targeting food aid programs

We present an economy of farmers where food aid is warranted due to poverty traps triggered by nonconvex production sets. We model a food‐aid intervention as a dynamic game between a food‐aid manager and the farmers in a context of asymmetrical information. The food‐aid manager is motivated by a relief objective and targets farmers suffering the poverty trap. The food‐aid manager uses a self‐targeting mechanism by providing the aid through a food wage in exchange for participation in the intervention's activities. Guided by the relief objective and targeting constraint, he fixes the food wage equal to the reservation wage of the farmers not suffering the poverty trap. Dependency traps will then happen every time there is a considerable technological and nutritional gap between farmers who are in and out of the poverty trap. When there is a gap, poor farmers earn more working for the reservation wage of the well‐off farmers than by working in their own farm. Dependency can be overcome only if the food‐aid program allows farmers to upgrade their productive technologies and catch up with those farmers who are out of the poverty trap.     

城市化进程中失地农民与政府之间的利益博弈分析

随着我国城市化进程的加快,农村集体土地大量被征用,产生了为数众多的失地农民,而农民在失去土地的同时,也失去了附着于土地之上的一系列权益,但是其他形式的保障形式却没有相应建立起来。因此,失地农民群体的权益问题是一个亟待解决的问题。通过分析在征地过程中的有关利益主体在交易过程中的博弈,从博弈层面探析了失地农民利益受损的机理,并阐述了形成目前土地收益分配格局的经济原因,同时,进一步探讨了土地收益的合理分配及有关制度建设,提出了保护失地农民利益的可操作性方案。     

政府主导下的土地流转路径模型——一个动态博弈的视角

本文通过建立一个政府土地政策制定与农民土地流转决策的两期动态博弈模型,先后探讨了在平均分配土地的配给规则以及最大化农业劳动人口的土地配给规则下的土地流转路径,并比较了两种配给规则下土地流转速率的大小,得出土地流转的根本原因是农民劳动能力不同以及政府行为前后不一致,从而揭示了影响土地流转速率的内在机制:农民的劳动能力存在差异,为土地流转提供了可能,政府因此可以制定使农民激励相容的土地政策,推动土地整合集中到劳动能力高的农民手中;非农工资水平、农业补贴等外部因素对土地流转的影响主要体现在土地收敛速率上,并不改变土地流转的方向和最终均衡结果。在此引入劳动力市场冲击之后,本文提出了以产量甄别农民劳动能力的方法,改进政府进行农业定向采购的方式。     

我国城镇化进程中失地农民的补偿

当前对失地农民的补偿中存在的问题主要是补偿标准低,并且大部分农民只得到部分补偿;当前实行的货币安置方式实际上等于不安置;征地工作缺乏透明度,农民没有知情权,更没有发言权。因此,必须对现行土地征用和补偿制度进行改革,要强化农民对土地的所有权和处置权,通过修改相关法律使其物权化;严格执行公益性建设用地国家征用制度,缩小征地范围;全面建立经营性建设用地市场取得制度;彻底改革征地补偿费用计算和分配办法;妥善安置失地农民。     

基于Logit模型的农民土地调整意愿分析——来自2006年中国综合社会调查的证据

本文基于Logit模型,运用1682个农民微观调查数据分析了农民个体特征对其土地调整意愿的影响。研究发现,随着农民受教育年限的增加,其土地调整倾向减弱;作为农民的基本生存保障,非农就业机会的增多并没有使农民放弃对土地的占有;人均土地较多的农民家庭与土地调整意愿负相关;农民在享受医疗和养老保障后并没有降低其土地调整倾向;在农民土地意识增强的背景下,土地调整中的干部寻租假说并不存在。因此,政府必须正视和妥善处理法律与农民习俗的冲突。     

新时期农村土地流转模式比较研究

当前农村各地不断创新发展的土地流转模式,表明环境条件变化对新制度安排的强烈需求。以家庭联产承包责任制为主的农村土地经营模式,无法适应农业生产现代化的要求。农户自发形成的土地分散流转,亦不能有效解决土地细碎分割的现实问题。而依托村集体进行的土地集中流转有利于土地集约化和规模化经营,符合农业现代化发展趋势。未来我国农村土地流转模式,将逐渐转向以集中流转为主。     

我国农村土地的效率问题研究

文章运用经济学的基本工具,通过分析我国现行土地使用的经济效率,找出我国现行土地制度的缺陷,提出解决土地利用效率低的市场化思路。以探讨我国新农村建设中如何解决农民贫困的问题。     

Land transfer in rural China: incentives,influencing factors and income effects

ABSTRACT

Land transfer incentives and their effect on farmers’ income in developing countries have been widely examined in the literate, but little is known about the driving mechanism of rural household income effect during land transfer. To fill in this gap, this paper explains the incentives of land transfer, analyses the influencing factors of farmers’ decision on land transfer, then measures the income effects of land transfer and identifies the main sources of income effects, utilizing open-access data collected through the China Family Panel Studies. The empirical results show that land flow out or in is beneficial to raise farmers’ income, indicating that the income effects have a positive feedback to farmers’ decision on land transfer. Further analyses reveal that land flow-out farmers and land flow-in farmers have different main sources of income growth. Our finding suggest that optimizing the incentive role of China’s existing rural land property system can help orderly flow of rural land resources, which subsequently increases rural household income.     

粮食补贴政策对农户种植行为影响的实证分析

粮食补贴政策旨在提高农民种粮积极性,促进粮食增产和农民增收。本文通过构建嵌入补贴政策的农户种植决策行为理论模型,考察粮食补贴政策对农户粮食种植行为的影响,并利用安徽省17个地市421户农户的微观调查数据进行实证检验。实证结果显示,粮食补贴政策对激励农户增加粮食播种面积具有显著的正面效应,粮食补贴政策在动态趋势上表现出显著的"土地投入"激励效应。     

不同规模农户农业生产效率差异及影响因素研究——基于DEA-Tobit模型的实证分析

文章基于小麦主产区4个省份946个不同规模农户的调查数据,利用DEA模型和Tobit回归模型分析了小农户和家庭农场农业生产效率的影响机制。结果表明:家庭农场的农业生产效率明显高于小农户的农业生产效率,家庭农场的生产效率与经营规模呈倒"U"型变化特征;在影响因素方面,土地肥沃程度与农业技术指导对小农户和家庭农场的农业生产效率均有显著正向影响;家庭农场更倾向于通过提高受教育程度和增加单块耕地面积来提升农业生产效率;而小农户的农业生产效率对农户年龄和农户从事农作物种植年限呈现出较强的依赖性。基于此,建议有针对性地加大农业技术指导,适度扩大农业生产经营规模,加强小农户与新型农业经营主体之间的合作与联合,促进农业生产向高质量发展。     

SEQUESTERING CARBON ON AGRICULTURAL LAND: SOCIAL COST AND IMPACTS ON TIMBER MARKETS

Planting trees to sequester carbon has broad political appeal. However, effects of a major tree planting program on the agricultural sector and on timber markets are unclear. This paper examines social costs of sequestering carbon in tree plantations on U.S. agricultural land and investigates harvesting's effects on timber prices and on private timber producers' welfare. The analysis links a model of the U.S. agricultural sector that includes the land base in major production areas with a model of the U.S. softwood economy. Using current data on planting, maintenance, and harvesting costs for tree plantations and carbon sequestration rates, the models estimate the price and welfare effects of alternative carbon sequestration goals. Results indicate a range of outcomes. Consumers pay higher prices for food as farmers divert land from crops to trees. However, wood products consumers gain from falling timber prices if the trees enter commercial markets. Agricultural producers and landowners gain from higher commodity prices, but private forest owners lose. Large tree planting programs imply that policymakers must compensate private commercial tree planting to prevent farmers from displacing present tree plantations.     

Irreversible ecosystem change,species competition,and shifting cultivation

This paper explores the impact of resource use on species competition and the resulting effect on the regeneration of a renewable resource. In the case of shifting cultivation, agricultural activities alter the subsequent recovery of biomass during fallow upon which agricultural fertility depends. This paper introduces a model of agriculture's impact on species competition and discontinuous ecological change, identifies conditions under which it is economically efficient to induce an ecological irreversibility, and compares these cases for farmers with and without land tenure security.     

Monopsony and Time–Consistency: Sustainable Pricing Policies for Perennial Crops

Since farmers in developing countries must make sunk investments to produce perennial crops, governments, in the guise of state-run marketing boards, face constraints on maximal sustinable price which can be charged by a marketing board assuming that "punishments" involve reversion to subsistence by untrusting farmers. This maximal price balances concerns about revenue extraction against the incentive of governments to cheat by capitalizing on sunk investments.     

庭院经济与农民增收初探

庭院经济是指农户利用房前屋后的闲散零星土地资源和剩余劳动力,依据生态经济学原理和系统工程学方法设计的一种高效集约化的经营活动。庭院经济由过去只重视生产效益过渡到在注重效益的同时,更注重生活环境和生活质量的改变。庭院经济已经和大市场相连,和农业现代化、农业产业化相连,从而形成了庭院经济的许多新特点。根据我国庭院经济发展的现状,分析了庭院经济的作用,总结了"四位一体"生态农业模式、"种植-养殖-果树"模式、庭院加工业模式、高新科技模式、集约化生产经营模式、旅游观光模式;根据"十一五"的发展规划,提出了相应的发展对策。     

构建农民与农村经济长期发展的财产权基础——基于成都市改革经验的理论分析

在现行的农村土地产权制度下,农民并没有真正意义或物权意义上的土地财产权利。从成都市改革的实践经验来看,在这场改革中,农民个体表达出对土地承包经营权和宅基地使用权权能的完整性及"私有化"的强烈追求,以"还权赋能"为指向的成都市的土地制度改革适应了农民的这一要求。农村土地产权制度改革是完善社会主义市场经济体制的一项重要内容,我们需要在中国特色社会主义理论创新的指导下进行新的实践探索,改革的方向是在不改变土地集体所有权的制度框架下使物权化的土地产权向农民回归,重新构建农民与农村经济长期发展的财产权基础。