论民营经济对就业领域的影响

目前,我国的失业率一路飙升,居高不下,就业形势十分严峻。迫切需要调整经济结构,发展就业潜力大的行业,以缓解就业压力。本文在分析了我国民营经济现状的基础上,提出:迅速发展我国民营经济并使其规范化、规模化,是增加就业容量、缓建我国目前就业压力的有效措施之一。同时,针对我国的实际情况,对发展民营经济提出了相应的建议和对策。     

我国区域民营经济发展与就业增长分析

随着经济的快速发展,民营经济作为我国经济发展中的一个重要组成部分发展迅速,近几年一直是社会关注的热点。我国提出了很多的政策、优惠措施促进民营经济的发展。民营经济的快速发展,不断促进了我国经济的整体发展,而且促进了就业的增加。文章分析了我国当前区域民营经济的发展现状,已经区域民营经济的发展与就业增长之间的关系。     

我国民营经济的就业贡献及特点分析

民营经济逐渐成为我国劳动力就业的主要途径,民营经济的就业贡献与民营经济的就业特点是分不开的。本文从我国民营经济的就业特点出发,并从实证的角度,结合温州民营经济带动就业的案例,揭示和探讨了民营经济促进就业的机理和原因。     

促进就业根本在于转变经济增长方式

20世纪80年代以来中国经济的高速增长与巨大的失业压力同时并存,中国的经济高增长没有带来高就业,研究中国经济高速增长过程中的劳动就业问题,对实现中国经济可持续发展、促进社会充分就业和丰富经济增长与劳动就业理论都有重大的理论和现实意义。     

The Future is in the Past: Projecting and Plotting the Potential Rate of Growth and Trajectory of the Structural Change of the Chinese Economy for the Next 20 Years

Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high‐performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20 years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6.02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8 percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross‐country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that: (i) the value‐added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; (ii) the value‐added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; (iii) both the value‐added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.     

河南就业结构的现状、问题与演进趋势

河南就业结构的现状与问题是:从产业就业结构看,第一产业就业的劳动力占大多数,第二产业就业比重不足,第三产业就业比重滞后;从城乡就业结构看,城乡就业比例失衡;从所有制就业结构看,国有单位就业比重过大,以个体私营经济为主体的非公经济吸纳就业的能力迅速增长;从技术就业结构看,专业上表现为结构性失业问题严重,层次上表现为技术结构水平低。总体上看,就业结构正朝着合理化与优化的方向发展。政府应按照市场规律促进就业结构优化,实行既有利于经济增长又有利于扩大就业的政策。     

金融危机对我国经济的影响及对策

金融危机对我国的金融安全和经济增长造成了一定的影响。中国高额的外汇储备和居民储蓄存款虽然能够帮助中国的金融机构渡过金融危机。但是我国的外汇储备和大量的金融资产遭到贬值或资产损失的风险。中国的经济增长、投资、就业和物价水平等实体经济也受到金融危机的冲击。扩大内需、促进就业和经济增长,化解金融危机的影响,是我国目前面临的当务之急。     

Determinants of Self-employment in China： Evidence from Cross-regional Data

This paper presents and tests a series of sources of regional variations in self‐employment rate in China in the 2000s, and illustrates that the stage of economic development is a major explanation for the variations of self‐employment rate across regions over the past decade. The negative relationship between the stage of economic development and self‐employment rate identified in the paper indicates that China has entered the process of fast industrialization, and self‐employment is playing a diminishing role in economic growth and employment. We also find a substitution effect between self‐employment and private enterprises. While both are important components of China's private sector, private enterprises are becoming an increasingly important source of China's economic growth and employment. Furthermore, our findings also imply that when job opportunities are limited, self‐employment in China is likely a forced choice of disadvantaged people who are not qualified for wage jobs.     

State advances and private retreats? — Evidence of aggregate productivity decomposition in China

This paper is motivated by the recent debate on the existence and scale of China's ‘Guo Jin Min Tui’ phenomenon, which is often translated as ‘the state sector advances and the private sector retreats’. We argue that the profound implication of an advancing state sector is not the size expansion of the state ownership in the economy per se, but the likely retardation of the development of the already financially constrained private sector and the issues around the sustainability of the already weakening Chinese economy growth. Drawing on recent methodological advances, we provide a critical analysis of the contributions of the state and non-state sectors in the aggregate Total Factor Productivity and its growth over the period of 1998–2007 to verify the existence of GJMT and its possible impacts on Chinese economic growth. Overall, we find strong and consistent evidence of a systematic and worsening resource misallocation within the state sector and/or between the state sectors and private sectors over time. This suggests that non-market forces allow resources to be driven away from their competitive market allocation and towards the inefficient state sector.     

Employment Effectiveness of China＇s Economic Stimulus Package

Using an input--output method, this paper simulates the impacts of the global financial crisis and the decline of exports on China＇s economy and employment. With shrinking external demand, boosting domestic demand becomes crucial for maintaining economic growth and promoting employment. Our simulated results indicate that an investment scenario with employment as a priority can achieve the objective of employment maximization without significantly reducing growth. Public investment should focus on employment, education, health, housing and social security to rebalance China＇s economy so that it can realize sustained and stable economic growth.     

我国民营企业创新的内部动力机制研究

改革开放以来,我国民营企业发展迅速,数量和规模不断增长,在国民经济中的比重不断增大,已成为推动我国国民经济增长的主要力量.然而许多民营企业由于创新能力低下、发展动力不足,造成"短命"现象.文章将分析民营企业创新的内部动力机制,并在此基础上提出相关的对策和建议.     

Union effects on performance and employment relations: Evidence from China

This paper empirically studies union effects on the performance of, and employment relations in, China's private enterprises. The study finds a positive and statistically significant union effect on labor productivity, but not on profitability. It further finds that unions lead to better employee benefits and increased contract signing in employment. These findings suggest that, in the era of transition from a centrally planned to a market economy, unions in China's private enterprises do promote workers' interests as unions do in other economies. And they do that without abandoning their traditional role of harmonizing employment relations, as required by the Party.     

China and the Global Financial Crisis： Assessing the Impacts and Policy Responses

The present paper explores the role of China in the creation of the current global financial crisis and the impacts of the crisis on its economy. It argues against the view that the ＂saving glut＂ in China （along with other Asian emerging economies） played a significant causal role in the crisis. The global financial crisis did not engender much damage in China＇s financial structure, thanks to the relatively closed, bank-centered financial system. However, the impacts on the ＂real＂ side of the Chinese economy were hard felt. Growth and employment have fallen, largely due to the decline in exports and foreign direct investment. The crisis reveals the vulnerability of the export-dependent growth pattern. Policy responses of the Chinese Government, including monetary, fiscal and social policies, have helped to stem the downfall of the economy in the immediate term, but some of the policies have not addressed the structural problems of the Chinese economy and might well aggravate such problems over time. The present paper proposes a tentative reform blueprint to rebalance the economy and to sustain long-term growth.     

Government Policies and Private Enterprise Development in China： 2003-2006

The relationship between government policy and economic development has been a long- standing topic of academic research andpolicy debate. The government of a transitional economy plays an important role in the process of economic development. Over the past three decades, the Chinese economy has been growing very rapidly, in particular because of the rapid development of the private sector. However, the performance of private enterprises is still affected by government policies. In the present paper, we examine the changes in large Chinese private enterprises performance during 2003-2006 and test the determinants of such changes. We conclude that the Chinese Government＇s discriminating policies against private enterprises are the main cause of the private sector＇s downturn.     

“稳就业”还是“毁就业”？ 数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响

在"数字中国"和"就业优先"战略背景下,数字经济释放就业效能被社会寄予诸多厚望,但其在理论文献上缺乏直接的经验证据。文章利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和278个城市数据的匹配数据,采用腾讯研究院发布的"互联网+数字经济指数"对数字经济进行测度,考察了数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响。研究发现,数字经济对农民工高质量就业具有显著的正向影响。为克服实证模型的内生性问题,文章选取历史数据作为工具变量,所得结果依然支持数字经济对农民工高质量就业的正向效应。基于广义倾向得分匹配法分析发现,数字经济尽管正向影响农民工高质量就业,但在影响效应上却呈现"先上升后下降"的"倒U型",当数字经济为中等发展水平时,农民工高质量就业的边际效应达到最佳。这意味着今后以数字经济为抓手推动农民工高质量就业需遵从"适度"原则,需谨防过度数字化带来的"就业无效"和"就业低效"问题。进一步异质性分析发现,数字经济对"新生代"、"高技能"、从事制造业、交通运输业和居民服务业的农民工就业质量促进作用更明显。本研究为目前国家倡导"大力发展数字经济,促进就业提质扩面"提供了实证支撑,结论对推动农民工高质量就业具有重要政策启示。     

中国之私有化：原因及结果

Chinese privatization has been largely spontaneous. This paper studies its causes and outcomes in efficiency improvement and its implications for employment using firm-level panel data collected in 11 cities during the period 1995-2001. We find that hardened budget constraint and market liberalization are two significant factors contributing to privatization,while worker redundancy and excessive debts hinder it. Privatization improves firm efficiency when the amount of private shares passes a certain threshold. In addition, privatized SOEs maintain a lower rate of employment reduction and a higher growth rate in average wage payment compared to pure SOEs. However, they also fire more workers than pure SOEs in the year of privatization.     

Expansion of the economic frontier: Paraguayan growth in the 1970s

The rapid growth of the Paraguayan economy over the last decade is analyzed in terms of the expansion of agricultural production and an increase in construction activity. Construction of the Itaipu Dam, the world's largest hydroelectric project, has provided employment and spurred private construction. A government colonization programme and spontaneous Brazilian immigration has brought new land into production. Favourable international prices for Paraguayan exports and funds from the Itaipu project swelled foreign reserves and served to maintain the Paraguayan currency at an already overvalued rate. The paper argues that the overvaluation, combined with extensive smuggling, undermined incentives for investment in manufacturing and deprived the government of revenues needed to finance infrastructure for sustained economic growth and development.     

经济走势和政策调整的就业效应分析

我国经济增长正处在新一轮经济周期的波峰。随着今后采取从紧货币政策措施,加上人民币持续升值的压力,经济增长和就业受到的冲击不容忽视。在工资高增长阶段,劳动力市场的结构性矛盾会更加突出。在就业优先的原则下,一系列经济政策既要保持经济在高位上平稳运行,又要提高劳动者的素质和技能,并逐步改善劳动者的保护,从而实现充分就业的政策目标。     

西部民营经济发展的战略思考

作为西部经济新的主要增长点—民营经济,在西部经济发展中起着越来越重要的作用。但由于诸多原因,西部民营经济同东部民营经济发展的差距不是在缩小,而是在扩大。如何使西部民营经济持续、快速、健康发展,提升西部经济发展水平,缩小地区间差异,本文在充分认识西部民营经济发展问题及深入分析问题原因的基础上,从战略的高度提出了一些促进西部民营经济发展的策略。     

On the trail of China's phantom farmers

Many studies of China's economy use standard yearbook data for China's farm labor force. These data massively overestimate the number of Chinese farm workers. Our calculations show that the number of “phantom farmers” actually working outside agriculture may easily surpass 100 million. This paper reveals the implausible implications of the standard data, uses information from cost surveys to derive new estimates of China's farm work force, and investigates the implications of the new, lower series for agricultural employment on the measurement and interpretation of recent Chinese growth.