Evaluating stock returns with time-varying risk aversion driven by trend deviations from the consumption-to-wealth ratio: An analysis conditional on income levels

Based on the cointegrating relationship between consumption and wealth, we estimate the long run consumption-to-wealth ratio for each of five consumer income quintiles as well as national data for benchmarking purposes. Short run deviations from the consumption-to-wealth ratio for each quintile are examined for their ability to forecast changes in future consumption, income, housing values, and especially stock returns. We demonstrate that these trend deviations when combined with consumption growth in a multifactor model, significantly improve the ability of the dividend-to-price ratio to forecast future market returns over short and intermediate horizons for consumers in the highest-income quintile. This paper contributes to the financial economic literature by showing that the highest-income consumers are forecasting future stock returns with the help of the persistence in the dividend-to-price ratio and are modifying their consumption accordingly.     

Top Management Incentives and Corporate Performance

There is little agreement about either the effect of executive compensation on corporate performance or the best way to measure the strength of executive incentives. With little guidance from academic research, managers and directors continue to rely heavily on the percentage of pay "at risk" as a proxy for incentive strength.
Starting with the premise that managers, like investors, are motivated by prospective changes in their wealth, this article presents a measure of incentive strength called "wealth leverage" that reflects the sensitivity of an executive's company-related wealth—total stock and option holdings plus the present value of expected future compensation, including future salary, bonus and stock compensation—to changes in shareholder wealth. After estimating top management's wealth leverage at 702 companies, the authors conclude that: 1) the median company has significant wealth leverage; 2) almost all corporate wealth leverage comes from their accumulated stock and option holdings, not from current compensation; and 3) companies with higher wealth leverage significantly outperform their industry competitors.     

Accounting information,disclosure, and expected utility: Do investors really abhor uncertainty?

Investors are said to “abhor uncertainty,” but if there were no uncertainty they could earn only the risk‐free rate. A fundamental result in the analytical accounting literature shows that investors buying into a CARA‐normal CAPM market pay lower asset prices, gain higher ex‐ante expected returns, and obtain higher expected utility, when the market payoff has higher variance. New investors obtain similar “welfare” gains from risk under a log/power utility CAPM. These results do not imply that investors “abhor information.” To realize investors' ex‐ante expectations, the subjective probability distributions representing market expectations must be accurate. Greater payoff risk can add to investors' expected utility, but higher ex‐post(realized) utility comes from better information and more accurate ex‐ante expectations. An important implication for accounting is that greater disclosure can have the simultaneous effects of (i) exposing more fully or perceptibly firms' payoff uncertainty, thereby increasing new investors' expected utility, and (ii) improving market estimates of firms' payoff parameters (means, variances, covariances), thereby giving investors a better chance of realizing their expectations. Paradoxically, better information can be valuable to new investors by exposing more fully and more accurately the risk in firms' business operations and results–new investors maximizing expected utility want both more risk and better information.     

Utility Functions

Abstract

This article is a self-contained survey of utility functions and some of their applications. Throughout the paper the theory is illustrated by three examples: exponential utility functions, power utility functions of the first kind (such as quadratic utility functions), and power utility functions of the second kind (such as the logarithmic utility function). The postulate of equivalent expected utility can be used to replace a random gain by a fixed amount and to determine a fair premium for claims to be insured, even if the insurer’s wealth without the new contract is a random variable itself. Then n companies (or economic agents) with random wealth are considered. They are interested in exchanging wealth to improve their expected utility. The family of Pareto optimal risk exchanges is characterized by the theorem of Borch. Two specific solutions are proposed. The first, believed to be new, is based on the synergy potential; this is the largest amount that can be withdrawn from the system without hurting any company in terms of expected utility. The second is the economic equilibrium originally proposed by Borch. As by-products, the option-pricing formula of Black-Scholes can be derived and the Esscher method of option pricing can be explained.     

Economic Sentiment and Yield Spreads in Europe

According to Harvey (1988) , the forecasting ability of the term spread on economic growth is due to the fact that interest rates reflect investors' expectations about the future economic situation when deciding their plans for consumption and investment. Past literature has used ex post data on output or consumption growth as proxies for their expected value. In this paper, we employ a direct measure of economic agents' expectations, the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission, to test this hypothesis. Our results indicate that a linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7\% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. This ability of yield spreads to capture economic agent expectations may be the actual reason for the predictive power of yield spreads about future business cycle.     

The determinants of bond call premia: A signalling approach

A signalling model is presented that provides an additional explanation for the determination of call premia on corporate bonds. It is shown that firms may signal their exclusive information about their probability of default by the choice of their call premia. Stockholders of safer firms (i.e., those that have a lower probability of bankruptcy) have a higher incentive for providing a low call premium. This occurs because the call option will be valuable only if the firm survives by the first call date. This event, however, is more likely for the safer firm. The safer firm will therefore be more willing to sacrifice some current revenues (or equivalently, to provide a higher coupon than it would otherwise have to pay in order to sell the bond at par) by determining a lower call premium. The model therefore predicts a negative correlation between safety and call premia, a correlation that has been empirically confirmed by Fischer, Heinkel, and Zechner (1989). This correlation provides support to the signalling theory vis-à-vis the alternative explanation of taxes determining the call premia. Another contribution of this model is that it ties the call premium decision with expectations of future interest rates. Such expectations are considered important by practitioners, but were rarely considered in previous research.     

Consumption, Aggregate Wealth, and Expected Stock Returns

This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate consumption–wealth ratio for predicting stock returns. Using U.S. quarterly stock market data, we find that these fluctuations in the consumption–wealth ratio are strong predictors of both real stock returns and excess returns over a Treasury bill rate. We also find that this variable is a better forecaster of future returns at short and intermediate horizons than is the dividend yield, the dividend payout ratio, and several other popular forecasting variables. Why should the consumption–wealth ratio forecast asset returns? We show that a wide class of optimal models of consumer behavior imply that the log consumption–aggregate wealth (human capital plus asset holdings) ratio summarizes expected returns on aggregate wealth, or the market portfolio. Although this ratio is not observable, we provide assumptions under which its important predictive components for future asset returns may be expressed in terms of observable variables, namely in terms of consumption, asset holdings and labor income. The framework implies that these variables are cointegrated, and that deviations from this shared trend summarize agents' expectations of future returns on the market portfolio.     

当前经济形势与互换利率走势判断

2010年上半年,利率互换市场交投活跃。随着市场对经济增长和政策运用预期的不断修正,互换利率继1月创出新高后一路振荡下行。预计下半年,在基本面、政策面、资金面和利率自身波动节奏的相互作用下,市场参与者的预期将反复进行修正,互换利率将呈现宽幅震荡。     

XBRL adoption and expected crash risk

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) mandated the adoption of eXtensible Business Reporting Language (XBRL) in 2009, with the aim of facilitating data exchange and reducing information processing costs. To shed light on the economic consequences of this important disclosure regulation, this study investigates whether and how XBRL mandate impacts investor expectations of future crash risk. Using the steepness of the option implied volatility smirk as a proxy for ex ante expectation of crash risk, we find that expected crash risk decreases after adoption of XBRL. Moreover, we document that the effect is more pronounced for firms with higher financial opacity, more volatile earnings, and greater analyst forecast dispersion. Further, our analysis generates evidence that the use of customized extension XBRL elements attenuates the effect of XBRL reporting on reducing expected crash risk. Our empirical results are robust to a variety of sensitivity checks. Overall, the findings indicate that XBRL reduces information processing costs and strengthens information transparency of capital markets, which in turn, reduces investor expectations of future crash risk.     

Using Expectations to Test Asset Pricing Models

Asset pricing models generate predictions relating assets' expected rates of return and their risk attributes. Most tests of these models have employed realized rates of return as a proxy for expected return. We use analysts' expected rates of return to examine the relation between these expectations and firm attributes. By assuming that analysts' expectations are unbiased estimates of market-wide expected rates of return, we can circumvent the use of realized rates of return and provide evidence on the predictions emanating from traditional asset pricing models. We find a positive, robust relation between expected return and market beta and a negative relation between expected return and firm size, consistent with the notion that these are risk factors. We do not find that high book-to-market firms are expected to earn higher returns than low book-to-market firms, inconsistent with the notion that book-to-market is a risk factor.     

Real options under a double exponential jump-diffusion model with regime switching and partial information

We consider the irreversible investment in a project which generates a cash flow following a double exponential jump-diffusion process and its expected return is governed by a continuous-time two-state Markov chain. If the expected return is observable, we present explicit expressions for the pricing and timing of the option to invest. With partial information, i.e. if the expected return is unobservable, we provide an explicit project value and an integral-differential equation for the pricing and timing of the option. We provide a method to measure the information value, i.e. the difference between the option values under the two different cases. We present numerical solutions by finite difference methods. By numerical analysis, we find that: (i) the higher the jump intensity, the later the option to invest is exercised, but its effect on the option value is ambiguous; (ii) the option value increases with the belief in a boom economy; (iii) if investors are more uncertain about the economic environment, information is more valuable; (iv) the more likely the transition from boom to recession, the lower the value of the option; (v) the bigger the dispersion of the expected return, the higher the information value; (vi) a higher cash flow volatility induces a lower information value.     

Expected future earnings,taxation, and university enrollment

Taxation changes the expectations of prospective university students about their future level and uncertainty of after-tax income. To estimate the impact of taxes on university enrollment, we estimate a structural microeconometric model, in which a high-school graduate decides to enter university studies if expected lifetime utility from this choice is greater than that anticipated from starting to work right away. We estimate the ex-ante future paths of the expectation and variance of after-tax income for German high-school graduates, accounting for nonrandom selection. The enrollment model takes into account university dropout and unemployment risks. Consistently with expectations, the estimation results indicate that higher expected returns to a tertiary education increase the probability of university enrollment, whereas higher uncertainty among graduates decreases enrollment rates. A simulation based on the estimated model indicates that a revenue-neutral, flat-rate tax reform with an unchanged basic tax allowance would increase enrollment rates for men in Germany.     

Retail clientele and option returns

Does the retail clientele matter for option returns? By delta-hedging options and trading straddles, thus allowing a focus on volatility, this paper empirically shows that a higher retail trading proportion (RTP) is related to lower option returns. Long-short portfolios involving options on low and high RTP stocks generate significantly positive abnormal returns. The results suggest that retail investors speculate and pay a lottery premium on the expected future volatility, resulting in more expensive options with higher implied volatilities.     

Properties of Optimal Smooth Functions in Additive Models for Hedging Multivariate Derivatives

In this paper, we consider an optimal hedging problem for multivariate derivative based on the additive sum of smooth functions on individual assets that minimize the mean square error (or the variance with zero expected value) from the derivative payoff. By applying the necessary and sufficient condition with suitable discretization, we derive a set of linear equations to construct optimal smooth functions, where we show that the computations involving conditional expectations for the multivariate derivatives may be reduced to those of unconditional expectations, and thus, the total procedure can be executed efficiently. We investigate the theoretical properties for the optimal smooth functions and clarify the following three facts: (i) the value of each individual option takes an optimal trajectory to minimize the mean square hedging error under the risk neutral probability measure, (ii) optimal smooth functions for the put option may be constructed using those for the call option (and vice versa), and (iii) delta in the replicating portfolio may be computed efficiently. Numerical experiments are included to show the effectiveness of our proposed methodology.     

Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes

Using novel survey data, we document that individuals extrapolate from recent personal experiences when forming expectations about aggregate economic outcomes. Recent locally experienced house price movements affect expectations about future U.S. house price changes and higher experienced house price volatility causes respondents to report a wider distribution over expected U.S. house price movements. When we exploit within‐individual variation in employment status, we find that individuals who personally experience unemployment become more pessimistic about future nationwide unemployment. The extent of extrapolation is unrelated to how informative personal experiences are, is inconsistent with risk adjustment, and is more pronounced for less sophisticated individuals.     

干得好不如嫁得好?——房价变动与居民婚姻观念研究

房价的快速上涨是近年来我国经济中的重要现象,对宏观经济增长乃至微观个人的观念与行为都产生了重大的影响,但尚未有研究系统考察房价变化对居民婚姻观念的影响。房价上涨反映了对未来预期的不确定性,这种不确定性势必会影响到人们对工作与婚姻的权衡。本文基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2010和2015年数据,详细考察了房价变动对人们在工作与婚姻之间权衡的影响,用人们对“干得好不如嫁得好”的看法来衡量工作与婚姻的权衡。研究结果表明,房价涨幅越高,居民对“干得好不如嫁得好”的认同感越高,且这种现象主要体现在女性群体中。异质性分析表明,女性、未婚女性、已婚女性、女性流动人口、城镇户籍女性以及拥有女儿数量越多的人在工作与婚姻的权衡中更倾向于通过婚姻来抵御未来预期不确定性产生的风险。房价上涨主要通过财富效应和预算约束效应对人们在工作与婚姻之间的权衡产生影响。     

A new approach to measuring riskiness in the equity market: Implications for the risk premium

We introduce a new approach to measuring riskiness in the equity market. We propose option implied and physical measures of riskiness and investigate their performance in predicting future market returns. The predictive regressions indicate a positive and significant relation between time-varying riskiness and expected market returns. The significantly positive link between aggregate riskiness and market risk premium remains intact after controlling for the S&P 500 index option implied volatility (VIX), aggregate idiosyncratic volatility, and a large set of macroeconomic variables. We also provide alternative explanations for the positive relation by showing that aggregate riskiness is higher during economic downturns characterized by high aggregate risk aversion and high expected returns.     

What Drives Housing Markets: Fundamentals or Bubbles?

This study applies the dynamic Gordon growth model which is in the circumstance of rational bubbles to decompose log price-rent ratio into three parts, i.e., rational bubbles, discounted expected future rent growth rates and discounted expected future returns. The latter two terms represent housing fundamentals. The magnitudes of the components of price-rent ratio’s variance are estimated to distinguish the relative impact of the three parts on housing prices. Using time series data from the housing markets in the four largest cities in China (1991:Q1–2011:Q1 for Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen; 1993:Q2–2011:Q1 for Beijing), this paper presents a number of empirical findings: (a) the variance of rational bubbles is much larger than the variance of price-rent ratio, and rational bubbles contribute more fluctuations directly to price-rent ratio than the expected returns or the expected rent growth rates do; (b) the covariance between rational bubbles and expected returns or expected rent growth rates is also large; (c) the positive covariance of rational bubbles and expected returns implies that high expected returns coexist with bubbles, which differs from previous findings that lower expected returns drive asset prices; (d) the negative covariance of rational bubbles and expected rent growth rates indicates that the larger the bubbles are, the lower the expected rent growth rates are; (e) the positive covariance of expected returns and expected rent growth rates reveals under-reaction of the housing markets to rents.     

Unbiased and efficient Greeks of financial options

The price of a derivative security equals the discounted expected payoff of the security under a suitable measure, and Greeks are price sensitivities with respect to parameters of interest. When closed-form formulas do not exist, Monte Carlo simulation has proved very useful for computing the prices and Greeks of derivative securities. Although finite difference with resimulation is the standard method for estimating Greeks, it is in general biased and suffers from erratic behavior when the payoff function is discontinuous. Direct methods, such as the pathwise method and the likelihood ratio method, are proposed to differentiate the price formulas directly and hence produce unbiased Greeks (Broadie and Glasserman, Manag. Sci. 42:269–285, 1996). The pathwise method differentiates the payoff function, whereas the likelihood ratio method differentiates the densities. When both methods apply, the pathwise method generally enjoys lower variances, but it requires the payoff function to be Lipschitz-continuous. Similarly to the pathwise method, our method differentiates the payoff function but lifts the Lipschitz-continuity requirements on the payoff function. We build a new but simple mathematical formulation so that formulas of Greeks for a broad class of derivative securities can be derived systematically. We then present an importance sampling method to estimate the Greeks. These formulas are the first in the literature. Numerical experiments show that our method gives unbiased Greeks for several popular multi-asset options (also called rainbow options) and a path-dependent option.     

Evaluation of Extraordinary and Exceptional Items Disclosed by Hong Kong Companies

This study evaluates extraordinary and exceptional items (EI) disclosed in financial statements by Hong Kong companies from 1989 to 1993, prior to revision of SSAP 2. The results indicate that disclosures of positive EI were associated with market expectations of profit before taxes. If market expectations were higher than profit before EI and taxes (PBEI), positive EI (gains) were likely to be disclosed to adjust PBEI upwards and thus reduce the gap between reported and expected profits.
The results relating to negative EI (losses) showed that if companies had low historical economic performance they were more likely to disclose negative EI. Because weak historical economic performance is likely to be associated with low market expectations, management used this opportunity to 'spring clean' in order to show better economic performance in future years.
These findings suggest that managers engage in earnings management through disclosure of extraordinary items when they have flexibility to do so. In order to improve quality of financial disclosure, better accounting standards need to be developed for disclosures of extraordinary items, especially by newly developed and developing countries where accounting standards are at the formative stage.