国内商业银行操作风险管理研究

操作风险与信用风险、市场风险共同构成商业银行的三大风险。但在我国,操作风险管理的理论和实践远远落后于信用风险管理和市场风险管理。本文旨在结合中国银行业实际,实证分析中国银行业的操作风险特征和不足,并提供加强操作风险管理的外部监管、组织架构、监控体系、量化管理、文化理念等一揽子加强操作风险管理的思路。     

商业银行信用集中风险管理策略研究

商业银行作为金融交易的主要中介,其运营中承担着各种类型的风险,而信用集中风险尤为突出。为此,本文针对我国部分商业银行信用风险管理具体现状及能力并根据集中风险的三个类别将信用集中风险的管理分成三个阶段,即名称集中风险、部门集中风险和传染集中风险综合考虑的积极信贷组合管理思想,为商业银行信用集中风险管理提供有效策略。     

商业银行信用集中风险管理策略研究

商业银行作为金融交易的主要中介,其运营中承担着各种类型的风险,而信用集中风险尤为突出.为此,本文针对我国部分商业银行信用风险管理具体现状及能力并根据集中风险的三个类别将信用集中风险的管理分成三个阶段,即名称集中风险、部门集中风险和传染集中风险综合考虑的积极信贷组合管理思想,为商业银行信用集中风险管理提供有效策略.     

商业银行信用风险管理

风险管理是商业银行经营管理和可持续发展的核心问题,而信用风险是商业银行最主要的风险之一。近年来,通过多种方式,处置了相当数量的不良资产,但从银行业自身看,尚未从制度、机制上根本解决新的不良资产产生问题,信用风险依然很大。而我国商业银行信用风险管理水平与国际大银行比,差距很大,信用风险管理计量还刚刚起步。因此,进行信用风险管理研究,提高我国商业银行信用风险管理水平,是我国商业银行要解决的重要课题。     

信用风险模型综述及对我国的启示

信用风险是商业银行的重要风险，文章对银行业信用风险管理中的模型进行了介绍，在此基础上探讨了这些模型在我国的适用性，并从中分析了这些模型对我国在风险管理中的启示。     

我国商业银行操作风险的现状与防控

在不少金融机构中,操作风险导致的损失已经明显大于市场风险和信用风险.但是,从我国银行业情况来看,对操作风险的认识和管理还停留在比较肤浅的层次,监管当局关注的焦点一直定位在信用风险领域,监管资源过分倾斜于银行不良资产的处置,以至于银行操作风险近些年呈持续上升趋势.因此,关注操作风险已成为我国商业银行不可回避的话题,操作风险是当前银行业风险管理的重中之重.本文从我国商业银行的操作风险现状进行分析并就所出现的问题提出相关防范措施以提高商业银行的风险管理能力.     

商业银行外汇信用风险管理

商业银行外汇信用风险是指银行在从事外汇信贷、外汇清算、国际结算、贸易融资、外汇买卖及外债投资等涉及外汇资金交易中所面临的交易对手违约的风险。从总体上看,外汇业务信用风险可以划分为两大类：客户信用风险及代理行信用风险。由于对客户信用风险的论述较多且外汇业务中的客户风险管理与人民币业务大体相似,因此本将侧重于对代理行的信用风险管理加以介绍。     

美国信用衍生市场发展的经验借鉴

信贷衍生产品是多个金融产品的组合,是金融创新的产物,在国外银行风险管理体系中日益发挥重要的作用。本文通过分析和介绍美国信贷衍生产品发展的特点,旨在探讨我国商业银行及投资公司利用信贷衍生产品进行信用风险管理的重要意义、市场条件和途径。     

美国信用衍生市场发展的经验借鉴

信贷衍生产品是多个金融产品的组合,是金融创新的产物,在国外银行风险管理体系中日益发挥重要的作用。本文通过分析和介绍美国信贷衍生产品发展的特点,旨在探讨我国商业银行及投资公司利用信贷衍生产品进行信用风险管理的重要意义、市场条件和途径。     

美国信用衍生市场发展的经验借鉴

信贷衍生产品是多个金融产品的组合,是金融创新的产物,在国外银行风险管理体系中日益发挥重要的作用.本文通过分析和介绍美国信贷衍生产品发展的特点,旨在探讨我国商业银行及投资公司利用信贷衍生产品进行信用风险管理的重要意义、市场条件和途径.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.