The Statistical Interpretation of Forensic Glass Evidence

When examining a sample of glass fragments recovered from a suspect in a forensic case, many questions arise: “Did this man break that window?”, “Are these fragments from the crime scene source?”, “Do the fragments recovered from the suspect come from more than one source?”, “How common is it to find glass on someone unrelated with crime?” etc. Such questions are usually answered with the help of statistical methods. This paper reviews some of the statistical solutions and problems encountered in the interpretation and evaluation of forensic glass evidence.     

The leadership labyrinth

Forty years ago, the questions most discussed among those who cared about leadership were “is leadership possible among those who don't have titles and positions?”; “what are the characteristics possessed by effective leaders?”; and “how do we find the people who are the best leaders and help them prepare for positions that will allow them to have an impact?” After many conversations, conferences, research studies, and books, the terrain has shifted among scholars. Now the conversations focus on questions such as “If leadership is a shared responsibility among members of groups, how can the full leadership potential of all be cultivated?”; “What role do collaborators play in empowering positive leadership and defending against those who misuse it?”; and “How can organizations cultivate cultures that support and encourage visionary leadership dedicated to benefitting all?” The shift in the questions that leadership educators now explore, coupled with the breadth and variety of the initiatives dedicated to nurturing it, demonstrate that leadership can be taught. More importantly, the practice of leadership demonstrates that many can pursue leadership and that they must if the opportunities of the 21st century are to be fulfilled. The conversations and the needs for leadership have both shifted and it is now incumbent on those who value leadership most to agree to unifying perspectives that can draw us together in common purpose. From your vantage point, what are the crucial conversations, next steps, and/or thoughts for consideration as we enter the second decade of the 21st century?     

Studying organizations as temporary

This article reflects upon the methodological pessimism that sometimes plagues students of organizations. In particular pessimism seems to strike us when we try to get to grips with the incessant transformations of organizations—transformations that seem to occur at such great speed. Our immediate reaction to Heraclitus’ statement that: “You cannot step twice into the same river” is that it has considerable methodological relevance. However, we contend that his metaphor in its orthodox version leads to too narrow a view. An elaboration of the metaphor could perhaps reduce the pessimism regarding organizational studies by promoting a focus on contextual aspects. Moreover, changes and transformations in themselves do not necessarily represent a stumbling block for the researcher. Rather studying crucial projects provides a means for studying the mechanisms at work in the host organization. The resulting approach—contextualization in a broad sense—relieves researchers of some of their pessimism, maybe even inspires optimism, by raising new questions: not only “what can be said?” (about the organization), but also “in what contexts?” and “about what manifestations in those contexts?” The article concludes with some remarks on the scarcity of the contextualization approach for studying organizations as temporary phenomena.     

Decision analysis of auto emission control

In response to public pressure to reduce air pollution, governments are forced to consider alternate means to limit auto emissions. This paper addresses the problem of evaluating these regulatory policies and choosing the one that is best for society.Economic tradeoffs play an important role in the analysis of emission control policies. Cleaner air comes only at a price, and the judgments as to “How clean?” At what price?” and “At who's expense?” are crucial. Once these value issues are resolved, questions of implementation remain. “How do regulatory policies such as mandatory emission standards for cars compare with a system of emission taxes?” “Are there ways to collect a fee from drivers to compensate those who breathe their pollution, without taxing emissions directly?”Our approach is first to describe a decision-focused analytical procedure for evaluating various policy alternatives. This procedure is then demonstrated with a preliminary analysis of representative emission control plans for the Los Angeles air basin. Both emission standards and market or “pricing” alternatives are considered. These plans include: present (1975) emission standards; an emission tax; an increase in the gasoline tax; a policy of no government control.The preliminary analysis shows market mechanisms to be superior to present emission standards. Many significant advantages of market mechanisms are discussed, though this conclusion is due primarily to—in our opinion—inappropriate value judgments that are implicit in the present standards.The analytical framework is very general, and it can be applied to a wide variety of social decisions involving externalities. The quantitative models developed, though preliminary, can be used by organizations such as regional planning agencies or pollution control boards. However, these models must not be viewed as formulas for answers to social problems. Rather, they are intended as aids for the policy maker that will help him or her balance the many factors that influence the decision and provide insight to the wisest social course of action.     

Betrachtung emergenter Strategien durch das Prisma der Improvisation

The fact, that strategies contain as well deliberate qualities as emergent elements has been pointed out by Mintzberg nearly 20 years ago. The term “emergent strategies” has been translated into German and used in very different ways and meanings since then. Whereas some of these interpretations retain the original sense of “emergent” as “unexpected” or “unforeseen”, a number of German scholars try to identify a broader understanding of “emergent”. This different understanding of “emergent” is based to some extent on the philosophical discussion of emergence, but in some cases the scholars define a new, divergent sense of “emergent”. This leads to a confusing meaning of the word “emergent” and to a low force of expression of the results and of the findings, which are based on these interpretations. These different meanings and interpretations of the word “emergent” as well as the findings of the resulting studies are examined in the present paper. It is proposed to analyse the conception and realisation of strategies from the perspective of improvisation. Moreover, it is shown, that the use of the perspective of improvisation leads to a better understanding and a brighter explanation of strategic management beyond the limits of planning than the divergent interpretations of “emergent strategies”.     

The “I quit” syndrome

Managements, unions, and arbitrators have been plagued by a very simple but long-standing problem involving what might be termed a routine human resource action. The problem stated simply is: When is a quit a quit? Where employees are represented by a bargaining agent, the company cannot always be sure that a “quit is a quit.” It is clear that employers who do not understand the “I quit” syndrome are in an uncertain position with respect to handling such problems. The authors have also discovered that unions do not understand the “I quit” syndrome either and at times go to arbitration with all of its attendant costs when the employee has actually “quit.” The purposes of this article are to study how arbitrators have ruled, to establish the principles involved in this little-known area of union/management relations and to provide parties to such cases with information to guide them. Arbitrators have upheld grievances and reversed company actions often enough that there is a need to clarify what is a “quit” as well as a need to clarify what the rights are of both parties under the collective bargaining agreement. The authors found that many managements use the “I quit” syndrome as a substitute for disciplinary action. It is clear from arbitral decisions that it is best from the company point of view to allow the disciplinary system to handle problem employees. The authors also found that reasonable resignations by employees were upheld by arbitrators. If employers carefully handle and document employee resignations, the resignations will stand. Further, it is clear that employers must issue clear policy statements concerning resignations; this includes avoiding resignations under duress. Finally, parties to collective bargaining agreements need contract language defining a quit.     

An application of Pitman-efficiency to acceptance sampling procedures*

As an exercise the concept of Pitman-efficiency has been applied to the decision problem whether to use acceptance sampling “by attributes” or “by variables”. The Pitman-efficiency has been calculated in the two cases that the variance of the underlying normal distribution is known and that it is unknown. Rather surprisingly the difference between these two cases proves to be considerable, even asymptotically. The asymptotic result is compared with the exact values of the relative efficiency in the case that s? is unknown. The asymptotic approximation appears to be rather good. The results derived also help to determine a suitable choice of the null hypothesis in order to increase the Pitman-efficiency.     

Briefing Paper: What Economists can learn from Game Theory

Game theory is a branch of mathematics which analyses interdependent decision-making. It attempts to explain how decision-makers might take into account the likely response of others in formulating their own decisions. It has long been applied to microeconomics especially to the theory of the firm under oligopoly where the firm, in devising its pricing and production strategy, will take into account the likely reactions of other firms within the industry. More recently it has been appreciated that many situations in macroeconomics can be analysed in terms of game theory. For example, if one country introduces import controls, how will others react? If one country tries to control inflation by adopting a tough monetary policy, or tries to reflate, what will other countries do? How will exchange rate speculators respond to the government's announcement that it will not intervene in currency markets? Will they believe the government or will they adopt actions which will eventually force the government to intervene? How will markets respond if the government changes its macro-economic strategy? In some cases the “players” are the government and the business community, in other cases one government may be playing against another. In this Briefing Paper we introduce some ideas and results from game theory and show how they can be applied to macroeonomics as well as microeconomics.     

Pervasive myths in leadership development: Unpacking constraints on leadership learning

Forty years ago, the questions most discussed among those who cared about leadership were “is leadership possible among those who don't have titles and positions?”; “what are the characteristics possessed by effective leaders?”; and “how do we find the people who are the best leaders and help them prepare for positions that will allow them to have an impact?” After many conversations, conferences, research studies, and books, the terrain has shifted among scholars. Now the conversations focus on questions such as “If leadership is a shared responsibility among members of groups, how can the full leadership potential of all be cultivated?”; “What role do collaborators play in empowering positive leadership and defending against those who misuse it?”; and “How can organizations cultivate cultures that support and encourage visionary leadership dedicated to benefitting all?” The shift in the questions that leadership educators now explore, coupled with the breadth and variety of the initiatives dedicated to nurturing it, demonstrate that leadership can be taught. More importantly, the practice of leadership demonstrates that many can pursue leadership and that they must if the opportunities of the 21st century are to be fulfilled. The conversations and the needs for leadership have both shifted and it is now incumbent on those who value leadership most to agree to unifying perspectives that can draw us together in common purpose. From your vantage point, what are the crucial conversations, next steps, and/or thoughts for consideration as we enter the second decade of the 21st century?     

Leadership learning: Crucial conversations,next steps,and thoughts for consideration

Forty years ago, the questions most discussed among those who cared about leadership were “is leadership possible among those who don't have titles and positions?”; “what are the characteristics possessed by effective leaders?”; and “how do we find the people who are the best leaders and help them prepare for positions that will allow them to have an impact?” After many conversations, conferences, research studies, and books, the terrain has shifted among scholars. Now the conversations focus on questions such as “If leadership is a shared responsibility among members of groups, how can the full leadership potential of all be cultivated?”; “What role do collaborators play in empowering positive leadership and defending against those who misuse it?”; and “How can organizations cultivate cultures that support and encourage visionary leadership dedicated to benefitting all?” The shift in the questions that leadership educators now explore, coupled with the breadth and variety of the initiatives dedicated to nurturing it, demonstrate that leadership can be taught. More importantly, the practice of leadership demonstrates that many can pursue leadership and that they must if the opportunities of the 21st century are to be fulfilled. The conversations and the needs for leadership have both shifted and it is now incumbent on those who value leadership most to agree to unifying perspectives that can draw us together in common purpose. From your vantage point, what are the crucial conversations, next steps, and/or thoughts for consideration as we enter the second decade of the 21st century?     

Leadership: A journey of sustained performance

Forty years ago, the questions most discussed among those who cared about leadership were “is leadership possible among those who don't have titles and positions?”; “what are the characteristics possessed by effective leaders?”; and “how do we find the people who are the best leaders and help them prepare for positions that will allow them to have an impact?” After many conversations, conferences, research studies, and books, the terrain has shifted among scholars. Now the conversations focus on questions such as “If leadership is a shared responsibility among members of groups, how can the full leadership potential of all be cultivated?”; “What role do collaborators play in empowering positive leadership and defending against those who misuse it?”; and “How can organizations cultivate cultures that support and encourage visionary leadership dedicated to benefitting all?” The shift in the questions that leadership educators now explore, coupled with the breadth and variety of the initiatives dedicated to nurturing it, demonstrate that leadership can be taught. More importantly, the practice of leadership demonstrates that many can pursue leadership and that they must if the opportunities of the 21st century are to be fulfilled. The conversations and the needs for leadership have both shifted and it is now incumbent on those who value leadership most to agree to unifying perspectives that can draw us together in common purpose. From your vantage point, what are the crucial conversations, next steps, and/or thoughts for consideration as we enter the second decade of the 21st century?     

Entrepreneurship education as a new model for leadership education

Forty years ago, the questions most discussed among those who cared about leadership were “is leadership possible among those who don't have titles and positions?”; “what are the characteristics possessed by effective leaders?”; and “how do we find the people who are the best leaders and help them prepare for positions that will allow them to have an impact?” After many conversations, conferences, research studies, and books, the terrain has shifted among scholars. Now the conversations focus on questions such as “If leadership is a shared responsibility among members of groups, how can the full leadership potential of all be cultivated?”; “What role do collaborators play in empowering positive leadership and defending against those who misuse it?”; and “How can organizations cultivate cultures that support and encourage visionary leadership dedicated to benefitting all?” The shift in the questions that leadership educators now explore, coupled with the breadth and variety of the initiatives dedicated to nurturing it, demonstrate that leadership can be taught. More importantly, the practice of leadership demonstrates that many can pursue leadership and that they must if the opportunities of the 21st century are to be fulfilled. The conversations and the needs for leadership have both shifted and it is now incumbent on those who value leadership most to agree to unifying perspectives that can draw us together in common purpose. From your vantage point, what are the crucial conversations, next steps, and/or thoughts for consideration as we enter the second decade of the 21st century?     

The professional manager of the future

It's just possible that a businessman's role in the year 2000 will erode seriously due to little involvement in the growing “leisure values” of an affluent culture and failure to contribute directly to the needs of what will be a strongly post-industrial society. But if we want to train managers who are able to meet the needs and interests of the wider community, how do we prepare them for something as conceptual as “social responsibility”? Is it enough to superimpose on the business curriculum some courses in the social, political or technical-environmental forces affecting the individual and his firm, i.e. make the student study more and longer before he becomes an operative “professional”?     

Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score”

The continuous growth of available football data presents unprecedented research opportunities for a better understanding of football dynamics. While many research works focus on predicting which team will win a match, other interesting questions, such as whether both teams will score in a game, are still unexplored and have gained momentum with the rise of betting markets. With this in mind, we investigate the following research questions in this paper: “How difficult is the ‘both teams to score’ (BTTS) prediction problem?”, “Are machine learning classifiers capable of predicting BTTS better than bookmakers?”, and “Are machine learning classifiers useful for devising profitable betting strategies in the BTTS market?”. We collected historical football data, extracted groups of features to represent the teams’ strengths, and fed these to state-of-the-art classification models. We performed a comprehensive set of experiments and showed that, although hard to predict, in some scenarios it is possible to outperform bookmakers, which are robust baselines per se. More importantly, in some cases it is possible to beat the market and devise profitable strategies based on machine learning algorithms. The results are encouraging and, besides shedding light on the problem, may provide novel insights for all kinds of football stakeholders.     

The Brexit can is kicked again – where do we go next?

? The UK and EU have agreed to kick the can further along the road, extending the Article 50 period to 31 October. But our analysis of the various political scenarios suggests that the chances of Parliament using the extra time to form a consensus are low, particularly if MPs believe that further extensions are possible. Should the EU make clear that it has run out of road along which to kick the can, Parliament will be forced to choose between the three options it has always had – in this situation we would still see an “orderly” Brexit as most likely, with a sizeable risk of “no deal” and a low probability on “no Brexit”.     

Does doing “good” always translate into doing “well”? An eco‐efficiency perspective

Does doing “good” always translate into doing “well”? Debate over the “value” of corporate social responsibility is high on the agenda of corporate finance research. Deeper understanding is required on managers' incentives to pursue and implement corporate social responsibility related strategies, as is more thorough comprehension of the effect of these strategies to firms' performance levels as well as shareholder and wider stakeholder valuations of the firm. This paper provides a new lens by approaching the subject from a different methodological paradigm, grounded in the performance benchmarking methods more commonly applied in operational research. In so doing, we provide novel evidence of the effect of corporate choices on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) strategic investment compliance (i.e., doing good) to firms' eco‐efficiency levels (doing well). In brief, our empirical findings suggest that ESG and firm's eco‐performance are nonlinearly related. Specifically, advanced ESG policies and disclosure levels are associated with a positive affect to firms' eco‐efficiency levels, but only up to a point, after which the effect becomes “neutral,” that is, ESG demonstrates a visible pattern of diminishing marginal returns. Thus, we may humbly conclude that a firm may “do well” by doing good, but it is not clear they should ever expect to “do great” just by “doing good.” The threshold at which this “neutrality” appears varies systematically with the characteristics of the sector in which the firm is operating, as well as dimensions of board diversity. Finally, it is evident that ESG implementation choices can be a source of managerial agency problems.     

“We’re not scum,we’re human”: Agential responses in the face of meaningless work

In this article, we address a gap in the meaningful work literature by exploring the processes by which work is experienced as meaningless. We adopt the lens of relational sociology and, through interviews with 45 participants in four very different occupations, we found that meaninglessness arises through four relational processes: powerlessness, disconnection, devaluation and self-doubt. Individuals enacted six agential responses to this experience. Two of these, resisting and responsibility-taking, were “reinstatement” strategies and four, acceptance, distancing, minimising and resistance, were “coping” strategies. In addition, some informants used “switching” as a framing device. These responses were not equally available to all workers in all occupations, suggestive of a stratified experience of work meaninglessness. Our study contributes to understandings of how work is rendered meaningless and how individuals might respond.     

The effects of economic news on commodity prices

We assess how commodity prices respond to macroeconomic news and show that commodities have been relatively insensitive to such news over daily frequencies between 1997 and 2009 compared to other financial assets and major exchange rates. Where commodity prices are influenced by news, there is a pro-cyclical bias and these sensitivities have risen as commodities have become increasingly financialized. However, models based on news still do a relatively poor job of forecasting commodity prices at daily frequencies. We also find some asymmetries in how commodity prices respond to news, most notably for gold, which alone among commodities acts as a safe-haven when “bad” economic news emerges.     

Making it work in free agent work: The coping practices of Swedish freelance journalists

Studies of post-industrial work have shown how workers are increasingly shouldering the risk of and the responsibility for social protection, work shortages, professional training, and securing a stream of continuous incoming work. This study of Swedish freelance journalists examines how these free agents cope with a situation whereby the need exists to actively bear the full responsibility for attracting and contracting, producing, and billing their work as journalists. The empirical material shows how freelancers engage in various coping practices to secure both sufficient amounts of work and the accompanying economic compensation. Freelancers who “make it work” are often those managing to embed themselves in long-standing relationships with clients and colleagues, thus ensuring a long-term work horizon and a steady income. Even so, the inherent “responsibilization” of contemporary work is amplified and intensified by the freelance work mode. This study makes two contributions: Firstly, it provides knowledge of free agent work in a Swedish context, a national setting that is often presumed to be a “role model” for good working conditions. Secondly, it highlights the specifics of managing work that entails a continuous stream of sequential and parallel assignments of limited duration and the ongoing “employment management work” this entails as regards making sure assignments keep “coming in”.     

Cross-sectional surveys: Inferring total eventual time in current state using only elapsed time-to-date

We focus on snapshot surveying of sub-populations whose members are in a temporary state and where one of the questions asked is the elapsed time already spent in that state. From these answers we develop probabilistic and statistical procedures to estimate the distribution of total time that will eventually be spent in that state by any random individual who enters the state. The method relies on a selection bias often found in temporal sampling, sometimes called “random incidence” or “longevity bias.” We develop results for several types of sampling, including random and fixed times of surveying, random and fixed times of entering the state, and sampling only those who have already spent some minimal specified time in the targeted state. An example with post-doc data is included to demonstrate the steps.