现今通货膨胀与政策建议

2007成为不同寻常的一年,我国出现了以生活用品为代表的一系列消费品的价格上涨,通货膨胀成为人们最为关注的话题之一。众所周知,在通货膨胀压力下,国家采取了一系列措施。本文通过叙述了通货膨胀的产生的部分原因分析,揭示了宏观经济中出现的一些矛盾与问题,并提出了一些治理通货膨胀的政策建议。     

现今通货膨胀与政策建议

2007成为不同寻常的一年,我国出现了以生活用品为代表的一系列消费品的价格上涨,通货膨胀成为人们最为关注的话题之一。众所周知,在通货膨胀压力下,国家采取了一系列措施。本文通过叙述了通货膨胀的产生的部分原因分析,揭示了宏观经济中出现的一些矛盾与问题,并提出了一些治理通货膨胀的政策建议。     

中国能承受多高的通胀

去年第四季度以来，由于居民消费价格指数持续攀升，“通货膨胀”再次成为热门话题。那么如何判断是否出现了通货膨胀?我国抑制通货膨胀的能力如何?当前应采取什么对策?这是正确认识当前通货膨胀压力、加强和改善宏观调控必须弄清的几个方面。     

关于当前我国金融体系面临的潜在危机及其对策

关于当前我国金融体系面临的潜在危机及其对策夏德仁一、金融体系将成为我国经济矛盾的最终承担者当前我国经济尽管从表面上看是平稳发展的，但是内在的矛盾不容人们忽视，最突出的问题是：一方面经济中长期存在的通货膨胀压力未能得到缓解，相反这种压力越积累越大，以至...     

当前国民经济运行中潜在的通货膨胀

实践中,我国把零售物价总指数作为通货膨胀测量指标。而这一指标采用“年距环比指数”。不反映生产资料和服务价格变动,加之控制物价的行政手段,产生了通货膨胀率的偏低性。即隐蔽性通货膨胀。当这种隐蔽性的通货膨胀与潜在的通货膨胀形成合力,通货膨胀由隐蔽转为公开,由潜在转为现实时,就形成通货膨胀反弹。潜在的通货膨胀指诱发通货膨胀的诸因素正处于积累或待萌发状态。当前经济活动中诱发通货膨胀的潜在因素有:1、市场物价上涨压力并未消除;2、产品库存积压使国民经济进入投入——无效产出——高投入的高速低效循环之中;3、货币流通量偏多并大量沉淀;4、经济由冷到热的复苏中社会总需求会相应增加。     

当前中国宏观经济分析与预测

今年二季度,我国经济出现“过热”和“偏冷”的可能性均比较小,经济运行在比较正常的绿灯区。但物价涨幅中新涨价因素的比重比一季度提高,通货膨胀的压力较大。因此,通货膨胀是当前经济稳定运行的最大威胁,抑制通货膨胀是当前宏观调控最紧迫的任务。     

当前中国宏观经分析与预测

今年二季度,我国经济出现过热和偏冷的可能性均比较小,经济运行在比较正常的绿灯区。但物价涨幅中新涨价因素的比重比一季度提高,通货膨胀的压力较大。因此,通货膨胀是当前经济稳定运行的最大威胁,抑制通货膨胀是当前宏观调控最紧迫的任务。     

正确认识当前我国的通货膨胀与物价上涨问题

<正> 一、当前我国出现的通货膨胀与物价上涨问题,是经济工作中的重大问题 当前我国出现的通货膨胀与物价上涨问题,是经济工作中存在的重大问题。因为这两个问题既关系到经济工作中的改革、发展与稳定的问题,同时,又是关系到社会稳定与人的安定、政治安定的大问题。这就是问题的严重性,党和政府,对此十分重视。当前的物价上涨形势,根据社会商品零售价指数是21.7％来看,这当然是很严重的。由于理论界一般人都把物价上涨率     

商业工作与抑制通货膨胀

<正> 当前,我国总的经济形势是好的,但存在着困难和问题,突出的是物价上涨幅度过大,经济生活中出现了明显的通货膨胀。 所谓通货膨胀,就是纸币的发行量超过了流通实际需要的货币量所引起的货币     

通货膨胀偏差与消除机制的构建

通货膨胀偏差是中央银行制定或承诺以稳定物价为目标的货币政策,因受各种因素的干扰不能始终如一地贯彻执行,结果出现了通货膨胀的社会经济现象。西方经济学家以货币政策动态不一致性与政治性经济周期理论,对通货膨胀偏差的形成进行解释,并提出了通过建立声誉约束机制、任命保守的中央银行家和实行委托——代理人方法消除通货膨胀偏差。我国通货膨胀偏差问题同样存在,但形成机理与西方国家有很大不同,其中货币政策多目标约束和政府官员追求政绩是我国通货膨胀偏差形成的主要原因,因而需要采取有别于西方的办法加以消除。     

稳定农产品价格的理性思考

农产品价格上涨关系国计民生。导致农产品价格上涨的原因是多方面的,既有通货膨胀的压力、生产成本的提高,也有游资炒作的因素。农产品价格的快速上涨对下游产业、消费者乃至宏观经济都会造成伤害。稳定农产品价格应采取以下措施：强化农产品价格监控的力度;发展现代农业,提高农业综合生产能力;完善农产品储备体系;完善农产品期货市场;降低农产品流通成本。     

Banks,Institutional Constraints and the Limits of Central Banking: Monetary Policy in Britain and West Germany, 1950–52

This paper analyses the anti-inflationary policies which were pursued in Britain and West Germany during the Korean War boom. It argues that the institutional relationships between the government, the central bank and the banking system can have considerable impact on the implementation of policy. The war brought a major shift in raw material prices and a consequent rise in bank lending in both countries to finance the increased import bill. The German independent central bank (BdL) used technical measures to restrain short-term lending, but was frustrated by the willingness of the Landeszentralbanken (regional central banks) to discount the bills of their local banking system. In addition, the banks themselves, because they operated in a competitive system, sought ways to circumvent the restrictions. The BdL took steps to tighten these loopholes and introduce a much stronger and more well defined policy transmission mechanism. Shifts in the terms of trade reduced inflationary pressure but the BdL retained tighter control over the banking system.

In Britain, the Bank of England was nominally controlled by the government, although it was able to exercise a degree of independence. Both parties had clear ideas of how inflationary pressure could be controlled in the economy; but these ideas differed significantly and neither one was able to impose their preferred option on the other. The result was a mixture of quantitative restrictions on the banks' balance sheets and qualitative guidelines to the banking system on the nature and extent of lending. The shift in raw material prices in 1952 largely solved the problem which it had created in 1951. The authorities, however, felt that their policies had been successful in constraining inflation and they failed to improve the monetary policy transmission mechanism as the Germans had done.     

Do private labels increase retailer bargaining power?

Like any new product, private label entry increases competition within a category leading to downward pressure on both wholesale and retail prices. But, given the higher margins for private labels and potential bargaining benefits for retailers, they have incentives to help private labels gain market share. The paper addresses two questions: First, do private labels enhance a retailer’s bargaining power with respect to manufacturers? Second, given the higher profitability and potential increase in bargaining power, does the retailer strategically set retail prices to favor and strengthen the private label? We find support for the “bargaining power” hypothesis, but qualified support for the “strategic retailer pricing” hypothesis. Retailers gain bargaining power through lower wholesale prices on imitated national brands. But the gain is greater in niche categories than in mass categories, suggesting that niche national brands with limited “pull” power lose greater bargaining power. In terms of strategic pricing, the retailer, on initially introducing the private label, strategically sets prices to help private labels gain market share in high volume mass market categories. But retail prices revert to the category profit maximizing price after a year when the private label gains a stable market share.     

基于宏观经济动态均衡的中国通胀压力均衡调整分析

2009年下半年以来,我国经济逐渐复苏,而通胀的压力也进一步增大。基于宏观经济动态均衡的角度,现对经济通胀压力进行量化分析。在进行量化分析前构建了一个求解宏观经济动态均衡的简单模型,并将中国宏观经济中的五大变量代入该模型进行了计量分析,得出了中国宏观经济中五大变量的均衡值。然后,通过经验分析,考察了1979年以来我国物价运行的动态均衡轨迹。最后,依据计量数据和经验分析,阐述了当前通胀压力的均衡调整策略。     

The Challenges of Inflation in Europe and the US

Inflationary pressures and uncertainties related to the severity and duration of the coronavirus pandemic have been growing steadily in the last year. Different approaches to supporting labour force participation in Europe and the United States have led to different inflationary outcomes. In addition, the Russian war against Ukraine, which began on 24 February, has provided a definitive answer to questions about whether rising inflation is just temporary. The sharp increase in already volatile food and energy prices is presenting monetary policymakers with new challenges. The authors in this Forum consider how to respond to rising inflation, discuss why inflation is so hard to predict and examine whether long-term inflation expectations have de-anchored.

     

A New Framework to Estimate the Near-Term Path of the Fed Funds Rate

We propose a forward-looking method to estimate the path for the federal funds target rate. We utilize six-month out probabilities of inflationary and disinflationary pressures, along with a labor market index, to estimate the fed funds rate. We further suggest that due to the changing nature of economies and impending risks to the economic outlook, a time-varying method (consistent with the nature of risks) would help decision makers to improve effective decision making. Our econometric results suggest disinflation (or disinflationary pressure), not inflationary pressure, best explains fed funds rate movements from the 1990s forward. Based on June 2016 data, there is a 55 percent chance that the inflation rate would stay below 1.5 percent during the next six months. The recent higher disinflationary pressure probability may be one reason the FOMC has repeatedly lowered its path for the fed funds rate. Unfortunately, the low-inflation zombie is real.     

浅谈原材料价格上涨给物价上升带来的压力

近来原材料价格上涨明显,多种原材料的价格达到或趋近历史高位。原材料价格的上涨给物价上涨带来压力,其本身又是物价上涨的组成部分。短期内,这会在一定程度上抑制消费从而减少需求,但一旦需求慢慢释放出来,物价的进一步上涨将会显现。流通是影响物价的重要因素,在原材料价格上涨的背景下,可通过简化流通环节和降低流通成本缓解原材料价格上涨给物价带来的上涨压力。     

Information and channel profits

New marketing information technologies, associated with point-of-purchase scanner systems, have increased the potential information available to manufacturers and retailers. In this paper, we explore the pricing and profit implications of this technology within a channel setting. We find that improved information about demand always results in greater absolute profits, as well as a claim on greater division of channel profits for the informed channel member. The greater profitability is due to the informed channel member's ability to “fine tune” prices in response to changes in demand conditions. However, total channel profits are highest when only one channel member acquires information. We also show that fine-tuning of price has the effect of smoothing sales, as informed firms charge higher prices during high demand periods and charge lower prices during low demand periods. Lastly, we show that an equilibrium where both channel members acquire information does not lead to a prisoners' dilemma.     

Feste Benzinpreise für einen Tag — Mehr Preiswettbewerb durch die 24h-Regel?

The German Cartel Office’s recent study of retail gasoline markets provides strong evidence of an oligopoly in which the major suppliers coordinate pricing strategies and achieve supracompetitive prices. Competition law enforcement does not provide effective tools to improve market outcomes. We examine the potential benefits of a regulatory framework that would require gasoline suppliers to announce at a specified time their prices for the following day and prohibit price changes during a 24-hour period. Such a 24-hour rule could complicate coordination and lead to lower prices, although it cannot be ruled out that the oligopolists would adjust and develop new coordination strategies.     

Prospects for the international oil market

The OPEC price conference in Geneva on May 25–26, 1981 did not resolve the disagreement among OPEC member countries over official prices. As a result of this stalemate, Saudi Arabia with its intention to moderate prices will in the foreseeable future probably not be prepared to make substantial reductions in its high volume of production with which it puts pressure on prices. What short- and medium-term perspectives for the international oil market arise from this situation?