Survival misperception,time inconsistency,and implications for life-cycle saving and welfare

Some empirical studies firmly reveal that people tend to form overly pessimistic survival expectations for relatively less distant ages and overly optimistic survival expectations for relatively more distant ages. We incorporate this observation into a life-cycle continuous time overlapping-generations model of consumption/saving with a general form for a subjective survival function. Resulting time-inconsistent optimal control problem has been analytically solved. At the micro level, time inconsistency leads to higher consumption at young and old ages, but this alone fails to improve lifetime well-being since micro-level decisions made with a lack of information about true mortality are suboptimal. In general equilibrium, however, such time inconsistent behavior with survival misperception is conducive to aggregate capital accumulation and greater equilibrium bequest income. The latter effects can produce substantial welfare gains. We also note that empirically observed old age optimistic bias is an important phenomenon, as it helps to avoid unrealistic very old-age debt accumulation within a life-cycle model. In addition, if for a given level of optimistic bias we increase early-life pessimism, this would result in slower capital accumulation, lower bequest income, and thus be detrimental to welfare. Since recent literature reports that young-age survival pessimism has grown over time, it raises some concerns.     

Evolution, bargaining, and time preferences

I include a role for time preferences within a version of the Young (J Econ Theory 59:145–168, 1993b) evolutionary model of bargaining. With or without time preferences, the stochastic stable convention yields a generalized version of the Nash (Econometrica 18:155–162, 1950) Bargaining Solution. When time preferences are added to the model, agents’ discount factors enter into the stochastically stable convention in a natural manner. That is, an agent’s discount factor acts as a bargaining weight within the Nash Bargaining Solution. By taking appropriate limits, an evolutionary foundation for the Rubinstein (Econometrica 50:97–110, 1982) Bargaining Solution is provided. I thank Lew Evans, Jack Leach, Collin Starkweather, Aaron Strong, a referee and associate editor. All errors are my own.     

“三城记”之一 快慢成都

策划前言初春4月,以＂城市寻标＂为目的的青岛市党政考察团,又一次考察了江浙地区的杭州、宁波、苏州、南京等城市。事实上,从上个世纪90年代的＂学上海、赶大连＂,到本世纪以来的数次赴苏州、杭州、宁波、南京、无锡等南方城市考察,加之几次的赴大连、沈阳、天津等北方城市的学习,青岛这座学习型城市,就是靠着这种持续的学习追赶劲头,     

Public debt,monetization and inflation: Evidence from the U.S. time series

This paper presents time series evidence based on vector autoregressive representations which strongly contradicts the hypothesis that larger real deficit induces the Federal Reserve to monetize it.     

Media,institutions, and government action: Prevention vs. palliation in the time of cholera

This paper studies how media and the quality of institutions affect government action taken before and after a natural disaster. Provided that more media activity is focused on post-disaster action, we show that more media activity and better democratic institutions both contribute positively to the palliative effort after the disaster, although corruption has a negative effect that decreases as media activity increases. On the preventive effort, however, media and democracy both have a negative effect, as does corruption. We provide empirical evidence based on major cholera epidemics and other natural disasters around the world, which largely support these hypotheses.     

Online networks,social interaction and segregation: an evolutionary approach

There is growing evidence that face-to-face interaction is declining in many countries, exacerbating the phenomenon of social isolation. On the other hand, social interaction through online networking sites is steeply rising. To analyze these societal dynamics, we have built an evolutionary game model in which agents can choose between three strategies of social participation: 1) interaction via both online social networks and face-to-face encounters; 2) interaction by exclusive means of face-to-face encounters; 3) opting out from both forms of participation in pursuit of social isolation. We illustrate the dynamics of interaction among these three types of agent that the model predicts, in light of the empirical evidence provided by previous literature. We then assess their welfare implications. We show that when online interaction is less gratifying than offline encounters, the dynamics of agents’ rational choices of interaction will lead to the extinction of the sub-population of online networks users, thereby making Facebook and similar platforms disappear in the long run. Furthermore, we show that the higher the propensity for discrimination of those who interact via online social networks and via face-to-face encounters (i.e., their preference for the interaction with agents of their same type), the greater the probability will be that they all will end up choosing social isolation in the long run, making society fall into a “social poverty trap”.     

Habit,seasonality, and time aggregation in consumer behaviour

Habitual behaviour in consumer demand analysis is generally portrayed via some form of a lagged dependent variable model. The purpose of this paper is to explore the implications for habit behaviour of time aggregation. This is done by specifying both habit and seasonal components in demand relations. The results indicate that much of what has traditionally been identified as habitual behaviour is, in fact, seasonal effects.     

基于网络外卖服务失误、补救以及效果的实证研究

针对网络外卖情境下的服务失误与服务补救,采用实证研究的方法,对254名大学生以及白领进行问卷调查,构建结构方程以及回归模型进行检验。结果表明,遭遇过程性失误的顾客期待多种补救形式,遭遇结果性失误的顾客期待实物补救,响应速度是遭遇服务失误顾客都希望得到的补救手段,高水平服务补救能够带来良性的顾客补救效果,信任关系类型与偶遇关系类型的顾客在经历相同服务补救水平后的补救效果不同。     

Online sales, Internet use, file sharing, and the decline of retail music specialty stores

This paper uses phonebook records of music retailers in the United States for the years 1998 and 2002 to examine how Internet use, file sharing, and online sales of records have affected the entry and exit of brick and mortar music specialty retailers. By merging music store information with data on Internet activity and broadband connectedness at the metropolitan statistical area (MSA) level, with the number of broadband providers at the zip code level, and with a database of the location of universities, I analyze how online purchases, broadband, and Internet use affected the survival probability and the change in the number of music stores between 1998 and 2002. I further study whether the number of employees and chain membership affected the survival probability. I find that broadband connectedness increased the death rate of brick and mortar music stores and reduced their number. I also find that the presence of a university led to a reduction in the number of music specialty stores in the zip code.     

网购供应链的低碳决策模型及其应用

文章基于定量研究和典型算例,针对网购供应链的低碳运作积极性不高的问题,对网购供应链的低碳决策问题进行了分析。通过考虑网购者的低碳意识对供应链需求函数进行了改进,在此基础上,根据网购供应链是否考虑碳信息发布成本,构建了两类决策模型,最后对模型及其应用进行了分析。文章研究得出以下结论：当网购供应链的初始低碳水平高于低碳标准时,网店及其供应商进行低碳运作的积极性就高;当网购供应链的初始低碳水平低于低碳标准时,考虑碳信息发布成本进行决策更有利于提高网购者的低碳意识,从而促进网购供应链进行低碳运作;同时,在网购者的低碳意识影响下,网购供应链是否进行碳信息发布,主要是与其的初始低碳水平有关。该结论为网购供应链进行低碳运营提供了决策依据。     

Symmetric versus asymmetric interest rate adjustment mechanisms: The prime rate,below-prime lending and the commercial paper rate

Alternative interest rate adjustment mechanisms are considered to explain variation in the spread between the prime rate and the commercial paper rate and the phenomenon of below-prime lending.     

感知风险构面、产品价差与顾客网上购买意愿

顾客感知风险各构面对于网络购买意愿的影响程度不同,其中感知财务风险、产品风险和服务风险对顾客购买意愿影响较为显著。笔者把通过互联网络和实体店购买同一产品的价差作为调节变量,分析了在不同的产品价差水平下顾客的感知风险各构面对购买意愿影响程度的变化,通过方差分析得出了较高的产品价差会弱化顾客感知财务风险、心理风险与购买意愿的关系,会强化顾客感知产品风险、服务风险与顾客购买意愿的关系。     

网上交易的信誉与保障标记机制

我国网上交易中两种主要的信任机制——信誉积分和保障标记在网上交易中有着非常重要的作用。它们分别从增强消费者预测商家行为的能力和减少消费者的交易风险这两个角度来促进消费者对商家的信任。为了验证这两种机制,通过搜索程序获取了淘宝网上销售诺基亚5800手机的2875个商家的销售数据,其数据分析和验证表明:信誉和部分保障标记不仅对商品的销售有着显著影响,而且它们之间还存在交互作用。而另外一部分保障标记,由于消费者和商家接受的原因,对销售影响不显著。此外,慈善标记对销售也有着显著影响,并与信誉积分存在强烈的交互作用。     

Population ageing,time allocation and human capital: A general equilibrium analysis for Canada

This study explores the long-term impact of population ageing on labour supply and human capital investment in Canada, as well as the induced effects on productive capacity. The analysis is conducted with a dynamic computable overlapping generations model where in the spirit of Becker [Becker, Gary (1965), A theory of the allocation of time, The Economic Journal, Vol. 75, pp. 493–517.] and Heckman [Heckman, James (1976), A life-cycle model of earnings, learning and consumption, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 84, pp. 511–544], leisure has a quality-time feature and labour supply and human capital investment decisions are endogenous. The role of human capital in the growth process is based on the framework used by Mankiw et al. [Mankiw, N. Gregory, Romer, David and Weil, David N. (1992), A contribution to the empirics of economic growth, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 107, no. 2, pp. 407–437]. The paper indicates that population ageing creates more opportunities for young individuals to invest in human capital and supply more skilled labour at middle age. Consequently, the reduction in labour supply of young adults initially lowers productive capacity and exacerbates the economic costs of population ageing. However, current and future middle-age cohorts are more skilled and work more, which eventually raises productive capacity and significantly lowers the cost of population ageing. Finally, these results suggest that the recent increase in the participation rate of older workers might be the beginning of a new trend that will amplify over the next decades.