Effect of total resource allocation effect and economic growth：Chinese experience of 1978-2004

The analytical method of total resource reallocation effect is an evolution of the analytical method of the factors of economic growth. Since the marketization reform in China in 1978, market mechanism has played a more and more important role in resource allocation, and Chinese economy has developed greatly, which is called ＂the Chinese Miracle＂. This paper analyzes the economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004 with the analytical method of total resource reallocation effect. The result shows that the annual growth rate of total resource reallocation effect was 0.2%, which was 5.1% of the comprehensive productivity and 0.21% of the gross output growth, i.e. the total resource allocation played a weak role in the economic growth in China. When analyzing it in Chenery＇s multinational model, we find that Chinese comprehensive productivity growth rate was higher than that in all the income phases of the model, but the total resource allocation effect was obviously lower than that in all the income phases of the model. It indicates that the total resource allocation in China has a great potential, and that to accelerate marketization reform is one of the important issues for Chinese economic development.     

The obstacles of China＇s economic transformation

In the past 30 years, China has gone from the transformation from a planned economy to a market economy, from the extensive economic growth mode to intensive economic growth model, and from relying on investment and export-led economy to relying on domestic demand and stimulating economic. China＇s economic transformation includes three parts： The first is the reform of economic system, the second is the change in the pattern of economic growth and the third is the adjustment of economic structure. This article describes the historical evolution and the reality of China＇s economic transformation, analysis the obstacles to China＇s economic transformation, and on this basis, put forward some suggestions.     

Energy Consumption,Economic Development and Temperature in China： Evidence from PSTR Model

Since the 1980s, the Chinese economy has developed rapidly, with an av- erage annual growth rate around 10%. Energy consumption in China has greatly in- creased as well. This paper investigates the relationship between energy consumption, economic development and temperature in China by adopting provincial panel data from 1990 to 2011. Different from existing studies, in this paper, we use a panel smooth transition regression （PSTR） model to estimate the non-linearity relationship. Four different threshold variables including two lagged endogenous variables and two important exogenous variables have been considered. We find that energy intensity and the ratio of gross capital formation are suitable for the non-linearity model. The estimated elasticities of time dynamic indicate that energy consumption is income in- elastic and temperature inelastic. Elasticities of real income at first increase and then decrease, however, elasticities of temperature gradually increase after the year 1993. Last of all, we propose some policy implications.     

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.     

The transformation of China＇s economic and government functions

The content of China＇s economic transformation is not single, and this article argues that it includes three parts. The first is the reform of economic system, the second is the change in the pattern of economic growth, and the third is the adjustment of economic structure. Government is the leading force of China＇s economic transformation, and repeated reform of government institutions has brought about some changes to government functions. But problems are obvious that lag changes of government functions have become an obstacle in China＇s economic transformation. This article describes the historical evolution and the reality of China＇s economic transformation, and analyzes the main reasons of lag changes in government functions, and reveals that the transformation of government functions is the key for successful transformation of China＇s economy.     

The Way of the Social and Economic Development of China An Attempt of Historical and Synthetic Representation

The issue of social and economic development is an important part of theoretical and empirical research of the contemporary economy. China is an example of an economy which in a short period of time achieved success within this scope. Therefore it seems to be justified to draw the reader＇s attention to the factors and determinants which may be regarded as the key ones for the economy of China, both in the period of 1949-1978, namely, in the period of real socialism, and in the period after 1978, so-called ＂socialist market economy＂ to date. On the basis of an analysis of Polish and foreign reference sources and source materials, the author tried to trace both similarities and differences in China＇s economic development over those two periods, first of all paying attention to the Chinese authorities＇ pragmatism of governing in the other period, accompanied by limiting ideological influences. Maintaining the socialist system, in that period China worked out its own, specific principles, and rules of internal activities and activities in the international arena, which enabled to it the creation of a model, especially for developing countries, the system of economic planning and programming, its constant modernization during the implementation of economic tasks, with the consideration given to changing conditionings in the world economy. It was pointed out that with maintaining the laboriousness of the Chinese and their loyalty to authority, they make up China＇s economic power. The aim of the article is to pay special attention to the circumstances, phenomena, conditionings, and factors which occurred on the way to the social and economic development of China, which enabled it to achieve the economic success in a relatively short period of time. This success can be expressed by such indicators as for instance the poverty rate, the unemployment rate, gross domestic product, the value of export, and the value of foreign direct investment as well as other factors.     

How Green is China＇s Path of Catching Up？ An International Comparative Evaluation

China＇s rise as a global economic power in recent decades has been achieved with tremendous environmental costs. Has China been an abnormally heavier polluter in its development path？ How has pollution accounted for China＇s hyper economic growth？ This study answers these questions by evaluating the environmental effects of China＇s growth using a data set of 61 countries over a period of four decades. The analysis is focused on two pollutant emissions： CO2 emissions, which carry global externalities, and particulate emissions, of which the environmental cost is more domestic. A fractional polynomial （FP） regression model is estimated to project emissions levels per worker based on lagged values of per capita GDP and other variables. It reveals that China＇s CO2 emissions have been higher than the projection for most years with an average margin of over 5.3% while its particulate emissions have exceeded projection by an average margin of more than 7.5%. The excessive emissions levels of both pollutants confirm the severity of China＇s environmental challenges and indicate great potential for the economy to work for a greener growth pattern. On the other hand, contributions of emissions to multi-factor productivity （MFP） growth are estimated by FP regressions based on a human-capital augmented growth model. The results show opposing trends of CO2 and particulates in their ＂contributions＂ to GDP growth, which imply asymmetric incentives to abate the two types of pollution. These findings have important implications for China＇s environmental policy making.     

Quest beyond the Middle Income Status

Over a period of three decades from 1980 to 2010, China, the world＇s most populous country with one-fifth of the global population, managed to grow its real GDP by almost ten percent per annum, or expand the size of its economy by more than seventeen fold. The persistent hyper economic growth has lifted hundreds of millions of people from poverty and developed the country from one of the world＇s poorest economies to a global economic powerhouse and manufacturing base. The prolonged economic growth with such speed and scale is unprecedented in human history.     

The sustainability and transition of economic growth in China：from a perspective of factor structure

After more than 20 years＇ high speed growth, the sustainable growth of Chinese economy faces serious limitation of resources and factors now and in the future. In order to maintain the economic growth. China has to trans-form the way of economic growth, Based on the analysis on the related theories of economic growth and the structural transformation in factors of production, this paper proposes that the transformation of the economic growth way has to impel the optimization and the promotion of the utilization structure of factors of production. Finall.v, based on the analysis of the necessity to change the pattern of economic growth, this paper proposes＇ the strategic measures to promote the continuous economic growth and the transformation of patterns of economic growth.     

Research on FDI and China＇s Economic Growth

In this paper, the relationship between FDI and China＇s economic growth is analyzed by Granger causality test and multiple regression model. It is found that relationship is bi-directional causal. It is suggested that the utilization of FDI should be focused on not only the quantity, but also the quality of FDI with its rapid development.     

基础研究与应用研究对地区经济高质量发展的异质性作用——基于“中等收入陷阱风险”视角

当前,内外部环境改变导致经济增速放缓,中国面临陷入“中等收入陷阱”风险,以创新驱动实现经济高质量发展越发重要。以经济效率提升与经济动能转换综合衡量经济高质量发展水平,使用2001—2017年中国省际面板数据,实证检验基础研究与应用研究对中国经济高质量发展的异质性影响。结果发现：①基础研究与应用研究均有利于经济效率提升,只有基础研究显著促进经济动能转换;②东中西部地区收入水平存在差距,基础研究对经济高质量发展存在阶梯式地区异质性影响,即对东部地区经济效率有显著促进作用,对中部地区无显著影响,对西部地区有显著抑制作用,且仅对东部地区经济动能转换具有显著促进作用,但应用研究无显著地区异质性影响;③基础研究存在显著门槛效应,只有达到一定收入水平,基础研究才会促进地区经济高质量发展;④为实现2025年前后顺利跨越“中等收入陷阱”,未来中国基础研究投入年均增幅需保持在［24.7%,29.3%］区间。     

21世纪前期我国能源战略的若干问题

能源是制约我国经济发展的关键因素之一.当前我国在人均能耗水平、能源利用效率、能源消费方式等方面均大大落后于发达国家.今后应通过合理利用国内外两种资源,尽快改变迄今仍以煤为主的能源消费结构.在全国宏观调控下,各个大的地区应根据其区域经济发展与能源供需平衡的不平情况与特点,遵循市场经济规律,拟订有所区别的区域能源战略.本文在分析我国能源主要问题的基础上,阐述了优化能源结构的途径并提出了七个大区的能源战略要点.     

人民币升值是紧缩性的吗?

中国经济近年来呈现出比较明显的外部失衡和内部失衡,这与人民币汇率低估不无关系。我国政府对是否允许人民币升值保持非常谨慎的态度,主要原因是担心人民币升值如传统宏观经济理论所言是紧缩性的,从而造成中国经济增长放慢和失业上升。本文运用向量自回归模型实证考察了人民币实质汇率冲击对中国产出的影响,实证分析表明:(1)在控制了可能导致人民币实质汇率与中国产出之间伪相关的来源后,人民币实质汇率升值仍会导致中国产出一定程度的下降,因此货币升值在中国确实是紧缩性的,“紧缩性贬值”文献揭示的升值扩张性效应在中国不是支配性的;(2)一旦考虑了中国经济的国际金融联系,实质汇率冲击对中国产出变动的解释力和影响程度明显变小,而美国利率冲击对中国产出变动有更大的影响,其影响超过了人民币实质汇率冲击的影响。本文进一步分析了实证结果背后的可能原因,并且指出并不能从本文的结论引出中国应该继续维持人民币汇率低估的政策建议。     

我国经济周期波动率的成分分解及稳定性研究

随着世界经济周期波动的减缓,我国经济波动也呈现出稳定性趋势.文章通过建立具有货币政策干预的产品市场均衡模型,对我国实际产出波动率进行了成分分解,并将实际产出波动的来源归结为需求冲击、供给冲击和货币冲击的作用.通过这些经济冲击方差序列的度量,又对实际产出波动率进行了冲击方差序列的回归检验,发现我国需求冲击和货币冲击强度的逐渐平稳是经济周期波动率降低的主要原因,而供给冲击对实际产出波动率没有产生显著影响.因此,我国宏观经济调控仍然需要坚持需求管理的政策导向,以保持经济持续稳定增长.     

核电：工业重工化发展模式下基荷低碳能源的选择

中国的低碳发展模式需要兼顾两个方面的因素,一是经济的可持续发展,一是寻求低碳能源对发展的支撑,当前在中国能够大规模建造的低碳能源,除了水电和部分新能源外,核电在低碳能源选择中扮演着重要的角色。在分析中国经济重工化演进中电力消耗、电源结构特征的基础上,建立发展中国家经济发展与电力生产碳排放的脱钩模型,提出在低碳经济发展模式下,支撑中国经济重工化发展的高电力需求与大规模低碳电源要求的悖论,分析核电的碳排放以及核电作为主要大规模低碳基荷电源的原因,并基于结合外部成本比较核电与煤电经济性。     

基于低碳经济视角的中国能源结构灰色关联度分析

中国正处于经济高速发展的进程中,经济的可持续发展要求中国走低碳发展的道路,要改变以往的高消耗、高排放的经济发展模式.文章通过对中国近9年来的能源生产结构进行了灰色关联度分析,发现原煤、原油、天然气、新能源与总能源的关联度分别为0.873 5、0.608 3、0.725 1、0.762 9.结果表明,中国经济的发展是以消耗原煤为主要能源手段,这种能源结构不利于建构低碳经济.为了实现国民经济的可持续发展,建设"两型社会",必须大力调整产业、能源结构,提高能源的使用效率.     

中国式经济增长:从投资与强制性技术变迁角度的一种解释

中国经济增长的核心是技术引进方式,研究表明,中国经济的长期增长速度与投资增长速度和技术输出国经济增长速度成正比。     

威廉姆森假说:空间集聚与区域经济增长——基于中国省域数据门槛回归的实证研究

威廉姆森假说认为,空间集聚在经济发展初期能显著促进效率提升,但达到某一门槛值后,空间集聚对经济增长的影响变小,甚至不利于经济增长,拥挤外部性更倾向于分散的地理空间结构。本文基于巴罗(Barro)增长模型建立了门槛回归模型,利用中国30个省域1978—2008年的数据对威廉姆森假说进行了实证检验,考察了空间集聚与中国区域经济增长之间的关系。研究结果表明,空间集聚对经济增长具有非线性效应,即没有达到门槛值以前,集聚对经济增长具有正效应,但超出门槛值后,集聚会降低经济增长率,即威廉姆森假说在中国显著存在。研究同时还表明,中国经济发展呈现出趋同和发散并存的态势。最后,本文据此提出了相应的政策建议。     

国际资本流动对我国房地产价格的影响分析

房地产业作为我国经济新的增长点,已经成为我国第二大支柱产业,同时也是仅次于制造业的第二大吸收外资产业。随着我国经济的快速发展,外汇储备的日益增加,人民币国际化步伐的加快,大量游资不断涌进我国资本市场,势必对我国房地产业造成一定冲击。我们通过建立协整和误差修正模型以及向量自回归模型,详细分析了国际资本流动对我国房地产价格的影响,并测算出了房地产市场对FDI和热钱的吸引程度。     

战略性新兴产业上市公司动态创新效率测度及其影响因素研究——基于两阶段DSBM模型与Tobit模型

以873家战略性新兴产业上市公司为研究对象,采用产出导向的DSBM模型测算两阶段整体和不同细分产业的动态创新效率。基于微观企业层面,分别以营业收入增长额、营业收入、营业收入增长率作为技术成果转化阶段的创新产出指标,测算并比较对应的创新效率。结果表明,以营业收入增长额作为创新产出更加符合实际情况,不同细分产业的创新效率存在异质性。进一步运用Tobit模型分析影响企业创新效率的因素发现,在技术研发阶段,企业规模、资产收益率、研发强度、劳动者素质、企业性质对创新效率具有正向影响,研发人员、研发资金、企业年龄、政府补贴对创新效率存在负向影响;在成果转化阶段,发明专利授权数、企业规模、资产收益率、研发强度、劳动者素质对创新效率具有正向影响,员工总数、研发支出、企业年龄、政府补贴、企业类型对创新效率存在负向影响。在创新驱动发展战略实施背景下,结论可为测度战略性新兴产业上市公司动态创新效率提供指导,为提高战略性新兴产业上市公司创新效率提供决策参考。