The market price of Low-Income Housing Tax Credits

The Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program awards a subsidy to private developers who construct and operate housing units with income-targeted rent controls for at least 15 years. The program allocated $6.6 billion to developers in 2006, and over 1.6 million units have been subsidized under the program since its inception in 1987. A historical literature suggests place-based housing subsidies, such as the LIHTC program, will be more expensive in providing the same level of housing support to the poor than tenant-based strategies (i.e., housing vouchers). This paper uses an administrative data series of LIHTC subsidized properties in California to show the program encourages developers to construct housing units that are an estimated 20% more expensive per square foot than average industry estimates. It is additionally shown that due to liquidity constraints faced by LIHTC primary developers in how the subsidy is allocated, virtually all developers sell the tax credits at a substantial discount below their statutory value immediately after construction. This price is estimated to be $0.73 per $1 of tax credit, or $1.8 billion annually, as compared to alternatively allocating a lump sum grant to developers.     

Second-best policies for congestion externalities

This is the third in a series of three articles on the topic of congestion externalities. We use an urban general-equilibrium model to test the efficiency of several second-best policies for congestion externalities. The most efficient second-best policy is a program of land-use controls; the program generates a welfare gain of $3.38 per household per week. A unit tax on commuting is a less efficient policy, with a welfare gain of $1.15.     

The Associate Life Legacy Program: the ultimate gift from employees

St. Vincent Hospital Foundation introduced a program whereby employees can leave a legacy without cost to them. To date the program has generated nearly $26 million in pledges.     

基于单片机控制的非接触式IC卡读卡器设计

本文在深入分析非接触式IC卡工作原理的基础上,提出了一种基于AT89S51单片机控制的S50系列IC卡读卡器的设计方法,并从元器件选型,硬件电路设计,软件程序设计等方面进行了探讨,并结合公共交通收费系统的实际应用,系统地讲解了公交车刷卡机的读写技术和工作原理。     

Controlling inventory in a small specialty hospital

Controlling inventory in a small specialty hospital has many parallels to controlling inventory in a large, acute care hospital. However, in a specialty hospital, there seems to be a plethora of specialty items that must always be on hand in ample supply. To achieve a significant inventory reduction, a strategic plan was developed that revolved around training sessions with the materiel management team, meetings with key hospital staff, and the establishment of two prime vendor contracts. In 1991, the annual inventory value in the general storeroom was approximately $2.3 million; in 1992, the inventory value was $1.6 million, and the projected inventory value for 1993 is $1.2 million. Implementing a just-in-time program to control inventory is best achieved through a collaborative effort with all of the materiel management team feeling a sense of contribution as well as receiving recognition from hospital administration.     

Estimating willingness to pay for medicare using a dynamic life-cycle model of demand for health insurance

Medicare is the largest health insurance program in the US. This paper uses a dynamic random utility model of demand for health insurance in a life-cycle human capital framework with endogenous production of health to calculate the individual willingness to pay (WTP) for Medicare. The model accounts for the feature that the demand for health insurance is derived through the demand for health, which is jointly determined with the production of health over the life-cycle. The WTP measure incorporates the effects of Medicare insurance on aggregate consumption through effects on medical expenditures and mortality, and consumption utility of health. The model is estimated using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study. The average WTP or change in lifetime expected utility resulting from delaying the age of eligibility to 67 is found to be $ 24,947 in 1991 dollars ($ 39,435 in 2008 dollars). However, there is considerable variation in the WTP, e.g., in 1991 dollars the WTP of individuals who have less than a high school education and are white is $ 28,347 ($ 44,810 in 2008 dollars), while the WTP of those with at least a college degree and who are neither white nor black is $ 15,584 ($ 24,635 in 2008 dollars). More generally, the less educated have a higher WTP to avoid a policy change that delays availability of Medicare benefits. Additional model simulations imply that the primary benefits of Medicare are insurance against medical expenditures with relatively smaller benefits in terms of improved health status and longevity. Medicare also leads to large increases in medical utilization due to deferring of medical care prior to eligibility.     

Science and politics: The 1981 and 1984 LIHEAP distribution formulas

The Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) is a federal block grant program to help low-income households pay their heating and cooling bills. If the regular fiscal year LIHEAP appropriation is less than or equal to $1.975 billion, then a 1981 formula is applied to distribute funding across states, while if appropriations rise above the $1.975 billion threshold, a 1984 formula is applied in conjunction with two hold-harmless provisions. In 18 of the past 20 years, the 1981 formula has served as the default mechanism to distribute LIHEAP funding. The purpose of this paper is to call attention to the inadequacy of the 1981 formula and to explain why the objectives of LIHEAP are not met when this formula is used. We explain why the distribution of LIHEAP funds is not proportionate to the need for assistance and offer some suggestions for improvement. The 1981 formula is shown to be the outcome of a convoluted political process heavily biased in favor of cold-climate states, with cold-climate states receiving on-the-order of at least $150 million a year in allotment dollars beyond their “fair share” of heating requirements. The 1981 and 1984 distribution formulas are derived and a critical examination of each formula is presented. The 1984 formula is shown to be an ideal mechanism to distribute LIHEAP funds, based on a scientific and rational understanding of low-income energy needs, but legislative constraints prevent its application.     

From kites to computers: Pennsylvania's Ben Franklin partnership

The traditional strength of the Pennsylvania economy has been steelmaking and other heavy manufacturing activities. During the past decade Pennsylvania has felt the impact of mature markets for steel and other capital goods, international competition and new technologies, as unemployment in the state has consistently exceeded the national average. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, state policymakers were faced with the problems of how to ease the state's reliance upon these declining industrial sectors, help existing industries within the state to modernize, and stimulate the formation of new growth industries.Recognizing Pennsylvania's history of technological innovation and its strong resource base in corporate and university research and development, state policymakers set out to create flexible public/private partnerships to encourage greater university/industry cooperation, and to focus regional economic development efforts toward innovation and modernization. In 1982, the Pennsylvania General Assembly created the Ben Franklin Partnership program, which established four regional advanced technology centers at major research universities in the state. These advanced technology centers are consortiums of universities, businesses, economic development organizations, financial institutions, and others committed to the goal of job creation through industrial modernization and technological innovation.To date, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has provided $29 million to the advanced technology centers for joint industry/university research and development projects, entrepreneurial development and education and training. This state funding was matched by $90 million from businesses, foundations, and other sources. Because of the long-term nature of such a program, the early results of the Ben Franklin Partnership are modest; however, the program has been successful in establishing relationships among universities, businesses and economic development organizations which will serve as the basis for long term growth.     

Dynamic labour supply effects of childcare subsidies: Evidence from a Canadian natural experiment on low-fee universal child care

This paper shows that a temporary incentive to join the labor market or to work more can also produce substantial life-cycle labour supply effects. On September 1997, a new childcare policy was initiated by the provincial government of Québec, the second most populous province in Canada. Licensed and regulated providers of childcare services began offering day care spaces at the subsidized fee of $5/day/child for children aged 4. In successive years, the government reduced the age requirement, created new childcare facilities and spaces, and paid for the additional costs entailed by this low-fee policy. No such important policy changes for preschool (including kindergarten) children were enacted in the nine other Canadian provinces over the years 1997–2004. Using annual data drawn from Statistics Canada's Survey on Labour and Income Dynamics and a difference-in-differences quasi-experimental methodology, the paper estimates the dynamic labour supply effects of the program. The results demonstrate that the policy had long-term labour supply effects on mothers who benefited from the program when their child was less than 6. A striking feature of the results is that they are driven by changes in the labour supply of less educated mothers.     

A benefit/cost model to evaluate educational programs

Essentially, a benefit/cost model provides a procedure to evaluate a project in terms of its economic objectives. The analytic task is to determine the present value of all benefits less the present value of all costs, so that the projects which maximise this difference can be selected. There are private benefits (those appropriated by the persons directly involved in the project), and social benefits (those derived by others because of the project) that should also be taken into account when public policy is involved. Limitations of data preclude us from considering all the benefits, but in the present study of the benefits of an educational program, the following have been incorporated: (1) increases in earnings due to attaining higher levels of education; (2) benefits that accrue to the offspring of the present generation resulting from the influence of the educational attainment of parents on that of their children; and (3) the reduction in juvenile crime.

The model that is used to estimate these benefits includes thirteen separate equations. A major ingredient of all of these equations is represented by equation 4 in the model:

According to this equation, the private benefits of additional education are calculated as the difference between the expected economic returns with the program (designated T) and the expected economic returns without the program. Expected economic returns are estimated by the product of lifetime earnings for each level of education (V_i) times the probability distribution of obtaining the various levels of education (P_i), where i designates a level of education. These benefits will be different for individuals with different characteristics, designated ε.

The parameters of the model have been estimated by the use of Census data for earnings, and various special survey data for the probabilities of educational attainment and committing juvenile crimes. Essentially an educational program changes the probabilities of educational attainment, increasing the probability of graduating from high school and going on to college.

In this study, we applied the model to a Title I ESEA, program in San Francisco, California, during 1966–1967. Since the program was implemented in the elementary grades, we used the mathematics of Markov Chains to estimate the probabilities of eventual grade level attainment. We found that prior to the program, about half of the disadvantaged non-Negro males and considerably more than half of the Negro males could be expected to be dropouts. The model showed, however, that a Title I program in San Francisco costing $220 per child sufficiently raised test scores in elementary grades so that the expected dropout rates were reduced about 3 per cent for non-Negro and 2 per cent for Negro male pupils.     

How should heavy-duty trucks be taxed?

This paper develops and implements an analytical framework for estimating optimal taxes on the fuel use and mileage of heavy-duty trucks in the United States, accounting for external costs from congestion, accidents, pavement damage, noise, energy security, and local and global pollution. The analysis allows for endogenous fuel economy, increased auto travel in response to reduced truck congestion, and distinguishes driving by truck type and region. We estimate the optimal (second-best) diesel fuel tax at $1.12 per gallon and implementing it increases welfare by $1.34 billion per annum. Optimizing over both fuel and mileage taxes, and differentiating mileage taxes by vehicle type and region, yields progressively higher welfare gains. The most efficient tax structure involves a diesel fuel tax of 69 cents per gallon and charges on trucks that vary between 7 and 33 cents per mile; implementing this tax structure yields estimated welfare gains of $2.06 billion.     

Academic scholarship,organization prestige,and the earnings of U.S. business school deans

This study models the market for business school deans as an outcome of a differential game between a university's central administration and the job candidates in the market for business school deans. In our model, the ability of a business school dean to advance the organization is enhanced by his or her own scholarly reputation, such that a job candidate chooses an optimal level of scholarship that relates to his or her marketability. In this way, the supply of scholarship (by job candidates) can be seen as the supply of job candidates in the market for business school deans, whereas the demand for scholarship can be seen as the demand for business school deans. The main features of our game‐theoretic model are tested using data from both national and regional business schools and colleges in the U.S. Econometric results indicate that each additional scholarly contribution by a business school dean generates a wage premium ranging from $1,000 to $1,200, whereas in the case of national institutions, each additional student enrolled at the doctoral (master's) level raises the wage by $671 ($56). Lastly, the production of between nine and 10 scholarly contributions is found to be necessary in order to face a 50% probability of holding a business school deanship at a national institution, whereas production of about 37 scholarly contributions leads to a 50% probability of holding a deanship with a named business school at a national institution.     

Estimation of the scale parameter of a log-logistic distribution

In this work the ranked set sampling technique has been applied to estimate the scale parameter $\alpha $ of a log-logistic distribution under a situation where the units in a sample can be ordered by judgement method without any error. We have evaluated the Fisher information contained in the order statistics arising from this distribution and observed that median of a random sample contains the maximum information about the parameter $\alpha $ . Accordingly we have used median ranked set sampling to estimate $\alpha $ . We have further carried out the multistage median ranked set sampling to estimate $\alpha $ with improved precision. Suppose it is not possible to rank the units in a sample according to judgement method without error but the units can be ordered based on an auxiliary variable $Z$ such that $(X, Z)$ has a Morgenstern type bivariate log-logistic distribution (MTBLLD). In such a situation we have derived the Fisher information contained in the concomitant of rth order statistic of a random sample of size $n$ from MTBLLD and identified those concomitants among others which possess largest amount of Fisher information and defined an unbalanced ranked set sampling utilizing those units in the sample and thereby proposed an estimator of $\alpha $ using the measurements made on those units in this ranked set sample.     

Resource balance, limited information and public policy

The U.S. Federal Government through its expenditure programs is having a major impact on all forms of pollution abatement. Total expenditures on Federal environmental programs amounted to $3.3 billion in 1972. A program of this magnitude can easily lead to waste and expenditures on conflicting goals unless carefully managed.

In a recent article in the Am. Econ. Rev. William Baumol examined the theoretical justification for and attacks on the Pigouvian tax and subsidy approach to controlling externalities. He concluded that while it is theoretically possible to control externalities through Pigou's procedure, the existence of multiple equilibrium and information requirements make it impractical. He proposes an alternate approach which changes the policy goal from maximization of social welfare to generation of acceptable levels of externalities. His goals differ drastically from those of the resource balance model presented by Kneese, Ayres and D'Arge of maximization of social welfare. This paper will combine the concept of resource balance with the goal of obtaining acceptable level of externalities at minimum cost in the presentation of a theoretical model that can be operationalized.

This paper proposes a general equilibrium method, utilizing the decomposition principle of linear programming, that will permit expenditures and regulations only on non-conflicting goals and includes a feedback mechanism for determining if a program is wasteful in relation to other programs. The model has five advantages over earlier proposals: (1) it is a general equilibrium rather than partial equilibrium model; (2) it is dynamic rather than static; (3) limited information rather than complete information is required for its implementation; (4) the model is heuristic rather than optimizing in the sense that policy decisions always increase the efficiency of pollution control, but because of the existence of uncertainty, they cannot be interpreted as maximizing social welfare; (5) the model incorporates multiple rather than a single policy tool.     

Multiple comparisons with the best,with economic applications

In this paper we discuss a statistical method called multiple comparisons with the best, or MCB. Suppose that we have N populations, and population i has parameter value θ_i. Let $\theta _{(N)}={\rm max}_{i=1,\ldots ,N}\theta _{i}$\nopagenumbers\end , the parameter value for the ‘best’ population. Then MCB constructs joint confidence intervals for the differences $[\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{1},\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{2},\ldots ,\theta _{(N)}‐\theta _{N}]$\nopagenumbers\end . It is not assumed that it is known which population is best, and part of the problem is to say whether any population is so identified, at the given confidence level. This paper is meant to introduce MCB to economists. We discuss possible uses of MCB in economics. The application that we treat in most detail is the construction of confidence intervals for inefficiency measures from stochastic frontier models with panel data. We also consider an application to the analysis of labour market wage gaps. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Costs of Air Quality Deterioration and Benefits of Air Pollution Control: Estimates of Mortality Costs for Two Pollutants in 40 US. Metropolitan Areas

A bstract . Although it is still impossible to place a dollar value on human lives and on the total health effeets of air pollution , the excessive mortality costs of two air pollutants– sulfur dioxide (SO₂ and total suspended particulates (TSP)-have been quantified for most of the 40 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States. Based on 1970 data, total mortality damage for SO₂ was estimated at $887 million and for TSP at $1.044 billion. The benefit from reducing these pollutants could exceed $1.328 billion annually, a figure useful in evaluating control costs.     

Forecast Summary

The forecast illustrates the costs and benefits of joining the ERM at the relatively high central parity of DM2.95. It shows that, providing the government does keep the pound within its wide 6 per cent EMS band, retail price inflation can be brought down to the average European level of 3 per cent by the mid 1990s. But there is a cost in terms of lower output and rising unemployment. GDP growth is expected to slow to about 1 1/2per cent this year and next and to average 2 per cent or slightly more from 1992 onwards. This is less than the rate of growth of productive potential and implies a weak labour market with unemployment rising steadily bock above 2 million. The forecast assumes a $25 oil price; in an alternative we sketch out the implications of a rise in the price to $45 for a limited period.     

Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?

Recent empirical literature has found a negative relationship between income per capita and measures of risk from natural disaster, supportive of logic that higher incomes allow countries to mitigate disaster risk. We argue that behavioral changes at the micro level in response to increasing income (such as location choice and extent of costly abatement activity) may lead to a non-linear relationship between aggregate incomes and disaster damages, where the risks increase with income before they decrease. In a country-year panel data set, we show that disaster risk associated with flooding, landslides and windstorms increases with income up to GDP per capita levels of $5044, $3360, and $4688 per year respectively and decrease thereafter. Such non-linear impacts are absent for other disaster types such as extreme temperature events and earthquakes where the links between human behavioral choices and exposure to risk are not as strong. From a policy perspective, this suggests that for the least developed countries, the dual goals of disaster risk prevention and economic development cannot be assumed to be complementary for all forms of natural disaster. In addition to allocating resources to manage disaster risk, the poorest nations may have to be more proactive in enacting policies that alter the behavioral choices of citizens that impact a country's exposure to natural disaster risk.     

Using input–output models to estimate sectoral effects of carbon tax policy: Applications of the NGFS scenarios

The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) has engaged in scenario analysis that estimates a $200/ton carbon tax would be required to transition to net zero carbon by 2050. Using a $200/ton carbon tax as a base, this paper uses input–output (IO) modeling to generate price and revenue effects of a carbon tax. Results from these models, which can only be interpreted as the short-run, upper-bound effects of the carbon tax policy, imply that in response to a $200/ton tax on CO₂e emissions, carbon-intensive industries, such as agriculture, extraction, transportation, utilities, and chemicals, may experience price increases in the range of 10-30 percent. Other industries will also experience price increases, but to a lesser degree, due to increased input costs associated with the tax. In addition, modeling results also suggest that industries facing elastic pricing regimes may face similar-sized declines in revenues as a consequence of the carbon tax. Rank-ordered impact results from these models can be utilized by bank supervisors and firms to adequately plan for sectoral-level transition risk within their lending and/or investment portfolios.