Effect of labor market policies on unemployment when firms adapt their recruitment strategy

Firms conduct interviews to select who to hire. Their recruitment strategies affect not only the hiring rate but also job destruction rate as more interviews increase the chances of finding the right worker for the job; a link mostly overlooked in the literature. I model this recruitment behavior and investigate the effects of labor market policies on unemployment. These policies change the value of hiring the right worker, altering firms' incentives to conduct interviews. Policies further affect job creation and destruction when firms adapt their recruitment strategies. Net effect of a policy on unemployment depends on the magnitude of change in job creation versus destruction. Qualitative analysis reveals that the effect of a policy on unemployment is mostly weakened with the introduction of firms' recruitment behavior to the model. Firing taxes still increase unemployment, albeit at a lower rate. The effect of hiring subsidies on unemployment is even reversed: Unemployment increases with hiring subsidies if firms adapt. Minimum wage and unemployment insurance policies are also analyzed.     

Fiscal stimuli in the form of job creation subsidies

This paper examines the effects of fiscal stimuli in the form of job creation subsidies in a DSGE model with search friction and endogenous job separation. We consider two types of job creation subsidies: a subsidy for the cost of posting vacancies and a hiring subsidy. This paper finds that the effects of job creation subsides on unemployment differ between models with and without endogenous job separation. While a positive job creation subsidy shock lowers unemployment in a model without endogenous job separation, it increases unemployment in a model with endogenous job separation. We also find that while qualitatively the effects of a vacancy cost subsidy on the economy are similar to those of a hiring subsidy, quantitatively they are different.     

Does Inflation Grease the Wheels of Adjustment? New evidence from the US economy

This paper presents a new interpretation of the Phillips curve that rests on the process of nominal wage adjustment in a multi-sector economy. Nominal demand growth causes inflation in sectors with full employment, but it speeds up the process of employment creation in sectors with unemployment. As a result, demand-pull inflation is associated with both a reduction in the duration of unemployment and the economy wide average rate of unemployment. The paper provides empirical evidence from the US economy consistent with this claim.     

Urban job creation and unemployment in LDCs: Todaro vs. Harris and Todaro

Overwhelming urban migration occurred so rapidly in many developing countries that widespread unemployment and squalid living conditions are commonplace. For many of these countries, stopping urban migration has become a major policy. Two models propose 2 different theories of urban unemployment. Todaro's short-term effects model concludes that job creation actually causes unemployment. Todaro and Harris formulated a long-term effects model in which welfare subsidies create more employment and stimulate the economy. A real solution to urban job creation would include optimal allocation of investment between the rural and labor sectors. A once and for all hiring tax would reduce replacement hiring. It is impossible to design an optimal tax subsidy package for urban unemployment unless it includes knowledge of the dynamic response of migration and unemployment to the rate of net and gross hiring of labor. If subsidy taxes are levied on the agricultural sector, the net result may be a higher rate of capital formation in the (low social return) manufacturing sector and a lower one in the agricultural sector.     

Economic Globalisation and Youth Unemployment – Evidence from African countries

The present study seeks to examine the impact of economic globalisation on youth unemployment for 50 African countries between the period 1994 and 2013. In addition to the economic globalisation measurements, the present study controlled the variables that represent the fluctuations in economic activates; demographic changes, a country’s economic size; the quality of governmental institutions; and labour market regulation. The results of the Arellano-Bond (A-B) GMM technique showed that greater openness to global markets would reflect in a lower youth unemployment rate. Furthermore, the results revealed that rigidity in labour market regulations seemed to reduce the youth unemployment rate. In addition, urbanisation seemed to raise the youth unemployment rate. The findings supported contemporary calls to participate in international trade to facilitate the job creation process.     

Urban job expansion,induced migration and rising unemployment: A formulation and simplified empirical test for LDCs

The purpose of this paper is to develop the conditions under which an autonomous increase in urban job creation designed to eradicate urban unemployment will, in fact, cause the level and rate of unemployment to rise. These conditions are developed using the Todaro model of rural-urban migration for LDCs. Data for 14 LDCs are then examined to see what the elasticities of migration with respect to job probability would have to be in order for the paradox of job creation increasing unemployment to hold. These elasticities are small enough that the paradox can be expected to hold for most LDCs.     

Equilibrium urban unemployment in developing countries: is migration the culprit?

"This paper challenges the prediction of Todaro's model of rural-to-urban migration that an 'increase in urban employment increases urban unemployed.' It is shown that if the urban demand for labor is isoelastic or inelastic, creation of urban jobs causes urban unemployment to decline and urban-to-rural migration to take place. Moveover, urban job creation always reduces the rate of urban unemployment. The paper then remodels the urban job search process and derives the result that equilibrium urban unemployment would not vanish even if the urban-rural wage gap were eliminated." The geographical focus is on developing countries.     

Job Creation, Job Destruction, and the International Division of Labor

The authors incorporate equilibrium unemployment due to imperfect matching into a model of trade in intermediate inputs. Firms are assumed to be price‐takers and their size is given by technology. Firms enter the market as long as expected profits cover the search cost they incur initially; jobs are endogenously destroyed by random shocks that affect firms’ price–cost margins. Trade increases productivity in the final good and then demand for each intermediate input. Steady‐state unemployment is reduced after trade integration because the rate of job destruction is reduced, which in turn induces an indirect positive effect on job creation. A more volatile environment faced by firms does not necessarily increase unemployment. However, the rate of job destruction unambiguously rises, and rises more under free trade.     

Unemployment hysteresis and the natural rate of vacancies

On the basis of macro data from 10 OECD countries, I find that the job vacancy rate outperforms the unemployment rate as a reliable measure of domestic inflationary pressure. Moreover, while the rate of unemployment affects inflation primarily through its difference, the vacancy rate operates through a level effect as well. In most countries, a unique equilibrium rate of vacancies seems to coexist with a drifting equilibrium rate of unemployment. I show that this result is consistent with existing theories of unemployment hysteresis that focus on depreciation of human capital and search activity during unemployment spells. First version received: October 1997/Final version received: June 2001     

JOB FLOWS AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN AN EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT MODEL WITH FIRM‐SPECIFIC SKILL TRAINING*

We introduce productivity enhancing firm‐specific skill training into the labour search model in which the firm‐specific skill training intensity and the job destruction rate are endogenously determined. It is shown that the higher the intensity of such training, the lower the rates of unemployment, job creation and job destruction. The paper's model provides a theoretical framework to understand the often mentioned peculiarity of the Japanese labour market; prevalently low rates of unemployment, job creation and job destruction in Japan are due to its training system which promotes workers to acquire firm‐specific skills.     

THE EFFECTS OF TAXES ON LABOUR IN A DYNAMIC EFFICIENCY WAGE MODEL*

This paper studies the impact of wage and employment taxes in an intertemporal efficiency wage model. Cases with fixed, linear and quadratic adjustment costs associated with job creation are considered. In general, the model shows that an increase in the employment tax leads to an increase in unemployment, reducing job creation, and has ambiguous effect on wages; whereas an increase in the wage tax reduces wages and has ambiguous impact on unemployment and job creation.     

Do more jobs in the modern sector increase urban unemployment?

This note considers the effect of an increase in the rate of urban job creation on migration and urban unemployment. The different results obtained when the issue was previously analyzed are reconciled. The period of time allowed for adjustment and the specification of the migration function are crucial in explaining the different results.     

EFFICIENT LEARNING AND JOB TURNOVER IN THE LABOR MARKET

This article nests a continuous‐time learning model la Jovanovic (Journal of Political Economy 92 (1984), 108–22) into a directed on‐the‐job search framework. We prove that the socially efficient allocation is separable, that is, the workers' value functions and optimal controls are independent of both the distribution of workers across their current match qualities and the unemployment rate. We characterize the dynamics of job transitions in the efficient allocation. Furthermore, when the matching technology is linear, our numerical results show that increasing the vacancy creation cost and the speed of learning have ambiguous effects on the unemployment rate and aggregate job transition.     

Wages,selectivity, and vacancies: Evaluating the short-term and long-term impact of the minimum wage on unemployment

Using a circular matching model (Marimon R, Zilibotti F. Unemployment vs. mismatch of talents: Reconsidering unemployment benefits. Economic Journal 1999;109; 266–291), where the wage setting is similar to Weiss (Weiss A. Job queues and layoffs in labor markets with flexible wages. Journal of Political Economy 1980; 88; 526–538), we reexamine Card and Krueger's (Card, D., Krueger, A. Myth and Measurement, the New Economics of the Minimum Wage. Princeton University Press; 1995) intuition on the impact of the minimum wage on unemployment. In the short term, a rise in the minimum wage increases the employment level by making firms less selective. In the long term, numerical simulations show that, despite the reduction of job creation, introducing a minimum wage may lower unemployment as soon as workers and jobs are sufficiently differentiated. However, beyond some limit, the wage increase raises unemployment whatever the degree of differentiation is.     

论西部开发中的就业创造

就业创造是西部大开发中应关注的一个重要问题。本文分析了西部地区就业创造的主要困难 ,进而揭示出西部地区就业创造的基本思路 :即坚持发展是硬道理 ,鼓励创业 ,积极发展各类教育 ,增加人力资本 ,注重劳动密集型产业的发展 ,重视农业和农村发展 ,以及搞好民族地区的计划生育工作等八项措施 ,千方百计创造就业机会 ,降低高失业率。     

The choice of technology in economic development

The impact of capital accumulation on job creation is an important and interesting issue in economic development. This model provides a general-equilibrium framework for studying technology choice with unemployment in a developing economy based on micro-foundations. Unemployment in the urban sector results from the existence of efficiency wages. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose technologies to maximise profits. A more advanced technology uses more capital and less labour. In the steady state, an increase in the amount of capital induces firms to choose more advanced technologies and the wage rate increases. While a higher capital stock always induces firms to choose more advanced technologies, urban unemployment rate may decrease and agricultural sector employment may increase.     

Hysteresis versus natural rate in Taiwan's unemployment: Evidence from the educational attainment categories

This study examines the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment for Taiwan's educational attainment categories. Both nonlinear dynamics and structural breaks in unemployment are applied in our examinations. The empirical results without structural changes show that the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis cannot be rejected in all educational attainment categories. After simultaneously incorporating nonlinear processes and smooth structural changes, we find that only the unemployment rate of junior college graduates reveals a mean reverting to the natural rate in the long-run, whereas all other series still support the hysteresis hypothesis. The results indicate that: i) the shocks have only temporary effects on the unemployment rate of the junior college graduates; ii) the labor or macroeconomic stabilization policies could have long lasting effects on unemployment rates of the other educational attainment categories; iii) the unemployment rates of low-skill labor are susceptible to the changes of economic or fiscal policies; and iv) practical and occupational training mechanisms should be implemented and strengthened in the higher education system to alleviate the increasingly serious problem of unemployment.     

Consumption in the shadow of unemployment

By how much do employed households reduce their consumption when the aggregate unemployment rate rises? In Spain during the Great Recession a one point increase in the unemployment rate was related to a strong reduction in household consumption of more than 0.7% per equivalent adult. This reduction is consistent with forward-looking agents responding to downward revisions of their expectations on future income growth rates: the shadow of unemployment. Using consumption panel data that include information on physical quantities we show that the drop in consumption expenditure was truly a reduction in quantities, and not a switch to cheaper alternatives.     

The (un)importance of geographical mobility in the Great Recession

Unemployment during and after the Great Recession has been persistently high. One concern is that the housing bust reduced geographical mobility and prevented workers from moving for jobs. We characterize flows out of unemployment that are related to geographical mobility to construct an upper bound on the effect of mobility on unemployment between 2007 and 2012. The effect of geographical mobility is always small: Using pre-recession mobility rates, decreased mobility can account for only an 11 basis points increase in the unemployment rate over the period. Using dynamics of renter geographical mobility in this period to calculate homeowner counterfactual mobility, delivers similar results. Using the highest mobility rate observed in the data, reduced mobility accounts for only a 33 basis points increase in the unemployment rate.     

A Behavioral Model of Unemployment,Sociotropic Concerns,and the Political Economy of Trade Policy

We present a behavioral model in which agents are concerned about the scarring effects from unemployment for themselves and others and explore the manner in which unemployment matters for trade policy. We derive three policy implications: the government has an incentive to increase employment in sectors characterized by “good jobs,” where the good job/bad job characterization depends on an industry's job creation and destruction rates; the government has an incentive to pursue this policy in a gradual fashion by channeling new and unemployed workers into the appropriate sector; and opposition to trade liberalization can be reduced by welfare state policies.