The signaling power of trade protection

This paper proposes an empirical analysis to provide new insight into the trade diversion effects of antidumping (AD) policy. Trade diversion is the shift in trade from named countries in an AD investigation to non-named countries. Previous studies have concluded that AD action causes a considerable drop in exports from named countries, however the extent to which trade is diverted to non-named countries is still an open debate. This paper examines to see whether AD action on named countries can have signaling effects on non-named countries. To examine the trade effects on non-named countries, a time series data at an 8-digit product level is constructed for all cases initiated between 1997 and 2003 in the European Union. The paper provides evidence that antidumping policy has signaling effects on non-named imports.     

A new estimator for trade costs and its small sample properties

This paper discusses the estimation of parameters of a traditional transportation model, as it is typically present in so-called Takayama–Judge type spatial price equilibrium models. In contrast to previously used estimation methods, observations of regional prices as well as of trade costs are used in a direct estimation of the first order conditions. The proposed method uses bi-level programming techniques to minimize a weighted least squares criterion under the restriction that the estimated parameters satisfy the Kuhn–Tucker conditions for an optimal solution of the transport model. A penalty function and a smooth reformulation are used to iteratively approximate the complementary slackness conditions. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to trace out some properties of the estimator and compare it with a traditional calibration method. The analysis shows that the proposed technique estimates prices as well as trade costs more precisely than the traditional calibration method. It is suggested to apply the same method to a range of linear and quadratic models.     

The U.S. trade imbalance and real exchange rate: An application of the heterogeneous panel cointegration method

The United States economy suffers from persistent trade deficits, arising from the so-called ‘global external imbalance’. Can the depreciation of the US dollar improve this phenomenon? This study for the first time applies the heterogeneous panel cointegration method to examine the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and bilateral trade balance of the U.S. and her 97 trading partners for the period 1973–2006. Using new annual data, the empirical results indicate that the devaluation of the US dollar deteriorates her bilateral trade balance with 13 trading partners, but improves it with 37 trading partners, especially for China. In the panel cointegrated framework, a long-run negative relationship between the real exchange rate and the bilateral trade balance exists for the U.S.     

An analysis of Turkey's accession to the European Union

We build a two‐country dynamic general equilibrium model to study whether European citizens would benefit from the eventual accession of Turkey to the European Union (EU). The results of the simulations show that Turkey's accession is welfare enhancing for Europeans, provided that Turkish total factor productivity (TFP) increases sufficiently after enlargement. In the benchmark model with no capital mobility, the Europeans are better off if the Turkish TFP increase bridges more than 21% of the initial TFP gap between Turkey and the EU. This figure increases to 33% when capital mobility is introduced.     

Dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development

This paper employs the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach of Pesaran et al. (1999) to study the dynamic effects of trade openness on financial development. The advantage of the PMG estimator over other dynamic panel econometric techniques is that it allows short-run coefficients, speeds of adjustment and error variances to vary across countries, with cross-country homogeneity restrictions only on long-run parameters. Our results spanning 88 countries over 1960–2005 show that a positive long-run relationship between trade openness and financial development coexists with a negative short-run relationship. But when splitting the data into different income or inflation groups, this finding is observed only in relatively low-income countries or high-inflation economies.     

Are duty drawbacks on exports worth the hassle?

Abstract.  Many countries use duty drawbacks on exports, yet there is no consensus whether countries should embrace or abandon them. The answer depends on countries' development priorities and economic conditions. An increase in the drawback has a positive impact on export competitiveness, but the welfare effect is ambiguous. A welfare increase is more likely if the economy is small with high input tariffs, low initial drawback, low administrative costs and tariff leakages. In China duty drawback removal after meeting its WTO commitments improves welfare, but hurts economic efficiency, export competitiveness, and real incomes. Further liberalization can mitigate these negative effects.     

The chilling trade effects of antidumping proliferation

Advocates of antidumping (AD) laws downplay their negative effects by arguing that the trade flows that are subject to AD are small and their distortions negligible. But while the adverse effect of AD on product-level trade has long been established, the question remains whether there are trade effects at the aggregate level. The recent proliferation wave of AD laws and their use provides us with a unique policy change to estimate the true trade effects of adopting and enforcing AD laws. For this purpose, we estimate the effect of AD on bilateral trade flows between the “new adopters” of AD laws and their trade partners. Using a gravity model of annual observations (1980-2000) our estimates show that AD has trade chilling effects on aggregate import volumes but the impacts are heterogeneous across sectors. We find that new tough users experience a chilling of their aggregate imports of 14 billion US$ a year (or 5.9%) as a result of AD measures. For some countries like Mexico and India, the dampening effects of AD laws on trade flows are found to substantially offset the increase in trade volumes derived from trade liberalization.     

U.S. trade remedy law and agriculture: trade diversion and investigation effects

Abstract .  We study U.S. agricultural antidumping and countervailing duty cases from 1980 to 2005, and gauge the effectiveness of trade remedy law as a form of protection. The purpose is to measure the resulting investigation and trade diversion effects. Previous research on trade in manufactured products has shown that the domestic protection offered by AD and CV duties is largely offset by trade diversion. In contrast, we find that for agriculture, trade diversion is relatively unimportant. So AD and CVD cases are very effective forms of protection for U.S. agriculture.     

Measuring China’s trade liberalization: A generalized measure of trade restrictiveness index

Neither simple average nor import-weighted average tariff indexes are ideal measures of tariff barriers. In this paper, we propose a generalized trade restrictiveness index (GTRI) that extends Feenstra’s (1995) tariff restrictiveness index (TRI) by relaxing the crucial assumption of a small open economy. We show that the GTRI can be measured using import tariffs, import shares, and the corresponding import and foreign export elasticities. We then apply the GTRI to examine how trade restrictiveness has evolved in China from 1997 to 2008, the period in which China entered the WTO. The GTRI indicates a higher level of protection than simple and import-weighted averages, but lower than the TRI. We further show a negative correlation between tariffs and product export supply elasticity, indicating that strategic trade policy was being pursued prior to China’s WTO accession. Finally, we calculate the welfare loss and terms-of-trade gain due to tariff protection. The overall tariff pass-through increases from around 28% to almost 47% because of the WTO.     

International trade, exhaustible-resource abundance and economic growth

Countries with oil and other natural resources have grown less rapidly than those countries without. This phenomenon is known as the “natural resource curse”. We develop an infinite-horizon, two-country model of trade in which countries are identical, except that one country is endowed with deposits of an exhaustible resource and the other is not. Within the context of the model, we show that this phenomenon can be explained in part by an inelastic demand for the exhaustible resource that increases growth in trade revenues and induces the resource-abundant country to invest relatively less than the country lacking in exhaustible resources. These results are derived analytically and illustrated by an empirical analysis based on plausible parameters obtained from data.     

The choice of exchange rate regime: An empirical analysis for transition economies*

We analyze the choice of exchange rate regimes of the 25 transition economies in Europe and the CIS after 1990. The empirical results show that the traditional Optimum Currency Area considerations provide relevant guidance for the regime choices in these countries. Moreover, regime choices are influenced by inflation rates, cumulative inflation differentials, and international reserves sufficiency. That is, macroeconomic stabilization and the ability to commit to exchange rate pegs also play important roles. Large government deficits have ambiguous effects; they increase the likelihood of moving from flexible to intermediate regimes as well as that of moving from fixed to intermediate ones.     

Geopolitics and international organizations: An empirical study on IMF facilities

There is growing awareness that the distribution of IMF facilities may not be influenced only by the economic needs of borrowers. This paper focuses on the fact that the IMF may favour geopolitically important countries in the distribution of IMF loans, differentiating between concessional and non-concessional facilities. To carry out the empirical analysis, we construct a new database that compiles a wide array of proxies for geopolitical importance for 107 IMF countries over 1990–2003, focusing on emerging and developing economies. We use a factor analysis to capture the common underlying characteristic of countries' geopolitical importance as well as a potential analysis since we also want to account for the geographical situation of the loan recipients. While controlling for economic and political determinants, our results show that geopolitical factors influence notably lending decisions when loans are non-concessional, whereas results are less robust and in opposite direction for concessional loans. This study provides empirical support to the view that geopolitical considerations are an important factor in shaping IMF lending decisions, potentially affecting the institution's effectiveness and credibility.     

Does hidden information make trade liberalization more fragile?

Abstract This paper focuses on the impact of hidden information on strategic interaction in the context of trade agreements. In the presence of informational asymmetry it is possible that a tradeoff between liberalization and sustainability of cooperation emerges. It is shown that it may be optimal to agree on a degree of liberalization associated with a strictly positive ex ante probability of deviation occurring. In that case, cooperation will break down in finite time, and the optimal degree of liberalization cannot be applied indefinitely.     

The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis

Taylor (1994, 1995) [Taylor, M.P., 1994. Exchange rate behaviour under alternative exchange rate regimes. In: Kenen, P. (Ed.), Understanding Interdependence: The Macroeconomics of the Open Economy. Princeton University Press, Princeton; Taylor, M.P., 1995. The economics of exchange rates. Journal of Economic Literature 33, 13-47] has proposed the coordination channel as a means by which foreign exchange market intervention may be effective, in addition to the traditional portfolio balance and signalling channels. If strong and persistent misalignments of the exchange rate are caused by nonfundamental influences, such that a return to equilibrium is hampered by a coordination failure among fundamentals-based traders, then official intervention may act as a coordinating signal, encouraging stabilising speculators to re-enter the market at the same time. We develop this idea in the framework of a simple microstructural model of exchange rate movements, which we then estimate using daily data on the dollar-mark exchange rate and on Federal Reserve and Bundesbank intervention operations. The results are supportive of the existence of a coordination channel of intervention effectiveness.     

Selling licences for a process innovation: the impact of the product market on the selling mechanism

Abstract.  This article considers the sale by a research lab of licences for a cost-reducing innovation. The marginal cost of a firm that wins a licence is private information and the acquisition of a licence imposes a negative externality on the other firms. The lab's optimal revenue is determined from a class of mechanisms in which the lab selects the number of licences and the reserve price before the sale. The role of the downstream product market in the determination of the number of licences is analyzed. Furthermore, it is also shown that the optimal reserve price may be zero.     

The behaviour of relative prices in the European Union: A sectoral analysis

Using multivariate unit root test methods, this paper investigates the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis at the sectoral level across six European countries over the last 17 years. Evidence of mean reversion towards PPP is found for the relative prices of some sectors and countries. Mean reversion in relative prices is explained by cross-country and cross-sectoral characteristics such as the distance between countries, nominal exchange rate volatility, differences in GDP per capita, non-tariff barriers, research and development, advertising, industrial concentration and tradeability of the products.     

Innovation and duration of exports

This paper uses survival analysis to investigate the effect of innovation on export duration of 105 countries at the product level. The estimation shows that the duration of exports increases with innovation. The effect is stronger for differentiated products than for homogeneous products. The estimates are consistent with the quality ladder model.     

Real exchange rates,asset prices and terms of trade: A theoretical analysis

This paper develops a continuous-time two-country dynamic equilibrium model, in which the real exchange rates, asset prices, and terms of trade are jointly determined in the presence of nontradable goods. The model determines the relation between the financial markets and real goods markets in the world economy and their responses to various shocks under the home bias assumption. A positive domestic supply shock induces a positive return on the domestic asset markets and a deterioration of terms of trade that improves the foreign output and boosts the foreign asset markets. Demand shocks act in the opposite way. This model also analyses the impact of change in the relative price of nontradable to tradable goods on the terms of trade and asset markets. A higher productivity growth in tradable goods than in nontradable goods leads to a higher relative price of nontradable to tradable goods, which appreciates the real exchange rate, deteriorates the terms of trade, and depresses the domestic and foreign asset markets. A lower relative price of nontradable goods depreciates the real exchange rate, improves the terms of trade, and lifts both the domestic and foreign asset markets.     

The impact of West European trade strategies on exports to Eastern Europe

This paper examines the extent to which West European countries have utilized diplomacy and reductions in trade barriers to improve their export performance in East European markets during the 1960's. Equal-price export shares of 7 West European countries are estimated by means of an econometric model, and their behavior over time and among importing regions is related to the commercial and foreign policies of the exporters. Our results demonstrate that East European import decisions have been significantly influenced both by changes in western commercial policies and by diplomatic initiatives such as DeGaulle's effort at détente with the Soviet Union. Our results also indicate that elasticities of substitution in East-West trade are significantly lower than those in trade among western countries.     

SECTORAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH: TESTING THE IMPACT OF POLICY REFORMS IN INDIA

This paper analyses the impact of India's policy reforms on exchange rate pass‐through into import and export prices, using panel data (at one‐digit SITC level) for pre‐ (1980–90) and post‐reform (1991–2001) periods. While the pass‐through into import prices has declined, the pass‐through into export prices (in USD terms) has increased during the 1990s. The results suggest that, relative to rupee depreciation, Indian exporters increased their USD prices around 20% in the 1980s, but decreased them by around 70% in the 1990s. Moreover, the number of sectors exhibiting some degree of pass‐through increased in the 1990s (six), relative to the 1980s (three). These changes may be attributable to the elimination of currency and trade controls, which increased competition among firms and fostered a concern with market share gains in the 1990s over an attempt to use depreciations to increase profits in the 1980s.