Non‐Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?

Abstract. While some of the recent surges in oil prices can be attributed to a robust global demand at a time of tight production capacities, commentators occasionally also blame the impact of speculators for part of the price pressure. We propose an empirical oil market model with heterogeneous speculators. Whereas trend-extrapolating chartists may tend to destabilize the market, fundamentalists exercise a stabilizing effect on the price dynamics. Using monthly data for West Texas Intermediate oil prices, our STR-GARCH estimates indicate that oil price cycles may indeed emerge due to the non-linear interplay between different trader types.     

Environmental performance and equilibrium

Abstract.  In this paper we show why firms' or industries' rankings in terms of environmental performance depend not only on the technology but also on market equilibrium. Between two industries committed to the same environmental constraint, the more eco-efficient is the one with the higher output level. By comparing industries and firms, we show that the rankings are not robust, for they are affected by market outcome. The role of eco-efficiency in firms' profitability in equilibrium is also scrutinized. All this shows that the usual eco-efficiency indicators are inadequate. To tackle this problem, we propose a sound indicator.     

Overlapping risk adjusted sets of priors and the existence of efficient allocations and equilibria with short-selling

The theory of existence of equilibrium with short-selling is reconsidered under risk and ambiguity modelled by risk averse variational preferences. No-arbitrage conditions are given in terms of risk adjusted priors. A sufficient condition for existence of efficient allocations is the overlapping of the interiors of the risk adjusted sets of priors or the inexistence of mutually compatible trades, with non-negative expectation with respect to any risk adjusted prior. These conditions are necessary when agents are not risk neutral at extreme levels of wealths. It is shown that the more uncertainty averse or risk averse the agents, the more likely are efficient allocations and equilibria to exist.     

A household level environmental Kuznets curve? Some recent evidence on transport emissions and income

This paper uses detailed survey data to show no evidence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for household transport emissions. The evidence shows that richer households still do not choose to internalize the social cost of polluting by vehicle emissions.     

Environmental regulation and trade openness in the presence of private mitigation

Acknowledging the differential ability of individuals to privately mitigate the consequences of domestic pollution for their health is essential for an understanding of their demands for regulation of the environment and of trade in dirty goods, and for analysis of the implications of these demands for equilibrium policy choices. In a small open economy with exogenous policy, we first explain how private mitigation at a cost results in an unequal distribution of the health consequences of pollution in a manner consistent with epidemiologic studies, and consequently how the benefits and costs of trade in dirty goods interact with choices concerning private mitigation to further polarize the interests of citizens concerning environmental stringency. The economy is then embedded in a broader political economy setting, and simulated to investigate the role of private mitigation in shaping political equilibria. We show that when citizens can choose between mitigating the health consequences of domestic pollution privately and reducing pollution through public policy, the same polarization of interests underlies equilibrium policy choices in both democratic and autocratic regimes.     

Implications of happiness research for environmental economics

Using happiness data to study economic issues is a burgeoning field in recent economic literature. This paper shows that happiness research has considerable potential for environmental economic analysis. The paper discusses some implications of happiness research for environmental policy analysis, specifically with respect to the level of socially optimal environmental quality. It discusses evidence that consumer choice may be not utility maximizing and systematically distorted away from intrinsically motivated options, especially environment-friendly consumption. Finally, the paper describes how happiness data can be used in a novel approach to the monetary valuation of environmental quality and discusses the associated benefits and problems in relation to conventional methods.     

Environmental amenities and optimal agricultural land use: The case of Israel

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of changing land allocation among crops as a mechanism for increasing net-social benefits, where production profits and amenity values are augmented. A positive mathematical programming model is calibrated and applied to 43 regions in the northern part of Israel, using a crop-discriminating amenity-value function. Changes in land allocation increase net-social benefits by 2.4% nationwide and by up to 15% on the regional level, where in some regions the net-social-benefits-increase/profit-loss ratio exceeds 20. Therefore, the results indicate that a policy encouraging amenity-enhancement of agricultural land use is warranted, provided that it is implemented on a regional scale, rather than as a comprehensive nationwide-enforced program.     

Groundwater balance and conservation under different water pricing and agricultural policy scenarios: A case study of the Hamadan-Bahar plain

Government subsidies for agricultural activities in recent decades have encouraged farmers of Hamadan-Bahar plain to extend the number of wells and irrigated farms, with no consideration of groundwater resource conservation. As a result, the level of the groundwater table has decreased continuously in this area, threatening the life of groundwater aquifer. The objective of the study is to analyze the impacts of irrigation water pricing and agricultural policy scenarios on aquifer conservation by considering the dynamic relations between aquifer groundwater balance and the agriculture sector. For this purpose a combination of simulation and optimization techniques is considered in a dynamic framework. Firstly, dynamic treatments of groundwater and the main factors affecting the balance of studied aquifer are simulated. Then, optimization behaviour of agriculture sector related to farmers' decision-making processes is defined on the time horizon. Thereafter all of the equations are used simultaneously by a non-linear dynamic programming method, which maximize present value of gross margins of agriculture sector subject to groundwater constrains and other input limitations. The analysis of the results indicates that water pricing by itself can considerably reduce the agricultural demand for aquifer groundwater in the Hamadan-Bahar plain.     

Impacts of the Productive Safety Net Program in Ethiopia on livestock and tree holdings of rural households

We evaluated the impacts of the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on rural households' holdings of livestock and forest assets/trees. We found no indication that participation in PSNP induces households to disinvest in livestock or trees. In fact, households that participated in the program increased the number of trees planted, but there was no increase in their livestock holdings. We found no strong evidence that the PSNP protects livestock in times of shock. Shocks appear to lead households to disinvest in livestock, but not in trees. Our results suggest that there is increased forestry activity as a result of PSNP, and that improved credit access encourages households to increase their livestock holdings.     

Recursive preferences,learning and large deviations

We estimate the relative contribution of recursive preferences versus adaptive learning in accounting for the tail thickness of price–dividends/rents ratios. We find that both of these sources of volatility account for volatility in liquid (stocks) but not illiquid (housing) assets.     

Interim efficient allocations under uncertainty

This paper considers an exchange economy under uncertainty with asymmetric information. Uncertainty is represented by multiple priors and posteriors of agents who have either Bewley's incomplete preferences or Gilboa-Schmeidler's maximin expected utility preferences. The main results characterize interim efficient allocations under uncertainty; that is, they provide conditions on the sets of posteriors, thus implicitly on the way how agents update the sets of priors, for non-existence of a trade which makes all agents better off at any realization of private information. For agents with the incomplete preferences, the condition is necessary and sufficient, but for agents with the maximin expected utility preferences, the condition is sufficient only. A couple of necessary conditions for the latter case are provided.     

Rational belief structures and rational belief equilibria

Summary The paper introduces some simplifying tools and methods for studying Rational Beliefs and for proving existence of Rational Belief Equilibria. We identify a set of stable non-stationary stochastic processes, named SIDS processes. Furthermore we introduce the concept of a Rational Belief Structure, which formulates the Rational Beliefs of the agents as beliefs about the distribution of exogenous variables and the beliefs of other agents. The use of the developed apparatus is demonstrated by showing existence of a set of Rational Belief Equilibria in an Overlapping Generations Model with money and one commodity.The results presented in this paper are taken from my Ph.D. thesis from Stanford University ([13]). The dissertation is devoted to the study of the theory of Rational Beliefs as developed by Mordecai Kurz. I gratefully acknowledge the inspiration obtained from innumerable discussions with him over the years about this subject. His suggestions were instrumental for writing the thesis and this paper. The paper benefited much from a thorough reading by Trinidad Casasus, Mordecai Kurz and Ho-Mou Wu. Financial support from The Academy for Research (Forskerakademiet), Aarhus, Denmark and The University of Copenhagen, during my time as a Ph.D. student and from Danish Social Science Research Council thereafter and in addition from Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei of Milan, Italy is gratefully acknowledged.     

Interim efficiency with MEU-preferences

Recently Kajii and Ui (2009) [17] proposed to characterize interim efficient allocations in an exchange economy under asymmetric information when uncertainty is represented by multiple posteriors. When agents have Bewley's incomplete preferences, Kajii and Ui (2009) [17] proposed a necessary and sufficient condition on the set of posteriors. However, when agents have Gilboa-Schmeidler's MaxMin expected utility preferences, they only propose a sufficient condition. The objective of this paper is to complete Kajii and Ui's work by proposing a necessary and sufficient condition for interim efficiency for various models of ambiguity aversion and in particular MaxMin expected utility. Our proof is based on a direct application of some results proposed by Rigotti, Shannon and Stralecki (2008) [24].     

Information age to genetic revolution: Embodied technology transfer and assimilation — A tale of two technologies

In this paper, a fifteen regions-fifteen sectors global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is calibrated. It offers quantitative enumeration of 5% exogenous biotechnological invention in USA in genetically modified crops namely, maize grains and soybean. Consequently, it results in endogenously transmitted productivity gains via traded intermediates in user sectors in donor and recipient regions. Sustained absorption and domestic usability of transgenic varieties depend on constellation of: human capital-induced absorptive capacity, governance, and structural congruence between source and recipients contingent on technology infrastructure and socio-institutional parameters. Such innovations result in higher production, welfare and global trade. Also, concomitant 4% exogenous productivity shock in information technology along with 5% productivity growth in the agro-biotech sectors further enhances such simulated impacts on global production and welfare. Regions with larger extent of technology capture aided by higher human capital, better governance, conducive institutional-structural features, and superior technological expertise perform better.     

Environmental justice and enforcement of the safe drinking water act: The Arizona arsenic experience

Environmental justice is concerned with the fair treatment and meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, national origin, or income with respect to the development, implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and policies. A wide variety of empirical studies have concluded that disparate-impact discrimination does in fact exist since minority and low-income communities are at disproportionate risk for environmental harm. In this paper we examine these issues in the context of enforcing the safe drinking water act (SDWA). Specifically, we focus on the association between race, income, and hazardous levels of arsenic concentration and analyze the broad equity implications of implementing the new arsenic regulation by examining the relationship between community-level exposure to arsenic and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the population in Arizona. The results provide no support for the contention that continued selective implementation and enforcement of the revised SDWA arsenic standard is likely to disadvantage minority or low-income groups disproportionately in Arizona.     

Nonlinearities in carbon spot-futures price relationships during Phase II of the EU ETS

This paper uses the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and the Switching Transition Regression-Exponential GARCH models (STR-EGARCH) to examine the dynamic relationships between the EU Emission Allowances (EUA) spot and futures prices during Phase II. Compared to the majority of previous studies, our empirical approach allows us to simultaneously capture asymmetry and nonlinearity effects in both return and volatility processes of carbon allowance prices. Our main findings show that carbon spot and futures returns are asymmetrically and nonlinearly linked, suggesting the usefulness of nonlinear models in pricing and forecasting carbon allowances prices.     

Dutch Disease,factor mobility,and the Alberta Effect: the case of federations

Do reduced costs of factor mobility mitigate Dutch Disease effects to the extent that they are reversed? The case of federations provides an indication they do. We observe resource blessing (curse) effects at the provincial (federal) level, and argue the difference in outcomes stems from the difference in factor mobility costs. We construct a simple tax competition model which shows that if factor mobility costs are sufficiently low, a resource‐boom triggers an Alberta Effect that mitigates, and possibly reverses, Dutch Disease symptoms. The paper concludes with empirical evidence for the main implications of the model.     

Green not (only) for profit: An empirical examination of the effect of environmental-related standards on employees’ recruitment

Thanks to an original database on French firms we investigate the impact of environmental-related standards on employees’ recruitment. Using a bivariate probit model, we show that voluntary environmental-related standards (i.e., ISO 14001 standard, organic labeling, fair trade, etc.) improve the recruitment of professional and non-professional employees. This finding suggests that, beyond environmental considerations, human resources management can drive registration.