运动生物力学研究方法综述

采用文献资料法、逻辑分析法,对运动生物力学研究方法及测量手段进行回顾总结。根据现代运动生物力学发展的规律与特点,对现代运动生物力学研究方法及测量手段进行一定层次的归纳分类,并对今后运动生物力学研究方法的发展进行展望。     

浅论现代风险导向审计及其应用

文章以现代风险导向审计产生的背景为逻辑起点,探讨了现代风险导向审计的内涵,通过对现代风险导向审计在审计实务中应用的分析,归纳了现代风险导向审计存在的缺陷,提出了解决问题的方法。     

产业集聚理论的历史发展与展望

文章按照历史的逻辑顺序对产业集聚理论的演化发展进行了归纳,较为详细地介绍了各种理论的主要思想,并对其理论贡献及存在的不足进行了简要评价;在总结产业集聚理论最新研究进展的基础上,结合现代经济学研究的趋势,提出了产业集聚理论需要重点研究的五个问题。     

企业发展历史与企业性质再研究

企业发展的历史可以归纳为三个发展阶段：古代企业组织的萌芽阶段、近代企业组织的产生与演化、现代企业组织的产生与发展。从逻辑的角度。辨析古典与新古典经济理论的“企业生产观”。以及现代企业理论的“企业契约观”。考察企业的性质应该从“生产性”和“交易性”两个方面进行，将企业归纳为是一种由人力资本和非人力资本通过特定的合约而形成的生产性组织。     

西方社会保障制度的经济学脉络

现代社会保障制度的产生与发展始终与现代经济学理论的发展结合在一起,从经济学角度梳理社会保障制度产生的根源和基础,从而分析现代经济学理论与思想对社会保障制度的变迁与演进产生的影响,探寻现代社会保障制度发展过程中的经济学逻辑,是现代社会保障制度可持续发展的前提与保证。本文从社会保障制度内在的经济学逻辑出发,仔细梳理了西方社会保障经济学的发展与演进,探寻现代社会保障制度中的经济学逻辑,为建立一套适应我国国情的社会保障制度提供学理上的准备。     

混淆矩阵在商业决策中的应用研究

混淆矩阵作为分类器的评价工具在评估一个分类模型分类效果优劣方面起着举足轻重的作用.在逻辑回归中,混淆矩阵随着目标类别预测概率切割点的变化而变化.本文从由逻辑回归产生的混淆矩阵入手进行分析,借助Precision、Recall和F1-Score等分类器的性能评价指标,研究概率切割点对决策功效的影响.结果表明,由于不同概率切割点会影响分类器的评价指标,因此要根据不同业务背景下的业务需求,选择适当的概率切割点进行决策判断,充分发挥分类器的分类效能.     

刍议体育社会学发展趋势与对策

通过文献资料、归纳演绎、逻辑分析等方法，对中国体育社会学研究的现状与存在的问题进行了深入研究，并就未来如何发展提出了相应对策。     

我国现代服务业评价指标体系及实证分析

在归纳众多学者界定的现代服务业内涵的基础上,给出现代服务业的概念,并建立了我国现代服务业评价指标体系。运用因子分析法对我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的现代服务业发展水平进行评价,揭示了目前我国现代服务业的发展现状,并给出发展建议。     

服务主导逻辑下服务创新价值共创机理及对策研究

随着全球服务业的飞速发展,传统产品主导逻辑已经难以适应如今的变化与发展,服务主导逻辑开始取代产品主导逻辑。同时,协同创新正日益成为企业发展的不竭动力和源泉。为了更深入地研究服务主导逻辑,在归纳和分析国内外协同创新研究成果的基础上,对服务主导逻辑下的服务创新价值共创进行研究,分析价值共创的创新相关方和创新轨道,并结合其它创新方式,构建服务创新价值共创系统,最后提出相应的管理建议和对策,以期为服务型企业提供有益建议,实现价值共创。     

一种基于逻辑起点视角的生产力标准解读

为进一步发展和完善马克思主义理论,文章以逻辑起点为着眼点,比较了马克思主义经济学--《资本论》以商品为逻辑起点和现代经济学以资源为逻辑起点而形成的两种理论,认为现代经济学以资源为逻辑起点,包含着其核心范畴,即资源利用和资源配置与人类的欲望和需要的矛盾的共性和必然性,实现了逻辑和历史的完全统一。在马克思主义经济学和现代经济学的共同指导下,作为人类社会发展的根本标准——生产力标准于是有了新的内涵,它指导我们如何建设节约型社会,从而达到构建以人为本的和谐社会的目的。     

Dynamics of inductive inference in a unified framework

We present a model of inductive inference that includes, as special cases, Bayesian reasoning, case-based reasoning, and rule-based reasoning. This unified framework allows us to examine how the various modes of inductive inference can be combined and how their relative weights change endogenously. For example, we establish conditions under which an agent who does not know the structure of the data generating process will decrease, over the course of her reasoning, the weight of credence put on Bayesian vs. non-Bayesian reasoning. We illustrate circumstances under which probabilistic models are used until an unexpected outcome occurs, whereupon the agent resorts to more basic reasoning techniques, such as case-based and rule-based reasoning, until enough data are gathered to formulate a new probabilistic model.     

A probabilistic ghost in the experimental machine

This paper focuses on the opposition between two contemporary research programs in economics: behavioral economics (BE) and experimental market economics (EME). Our claim is that the arguments of this opposition can be clarified through the lens of another opposition in the philosophy of probability and in probability theory, between Bayesianism and frequentism. We show how this probabilistic opposition has indirectly shaped a controversy in psychology that opposes two research programs – Heuristics and Biases and Ecological Rationality – which play respective roles in the foundations of individual rationality in BE and EME. To understand these theoretical interrelationships, we investigate the 1996 controversy between Kahneman, Tversky, and Gigerenzer. Those psychologists held different views on how probabilistic representations influence the context-dependency of rationality. This provides a rationale to suggest that a probabilistic ghost may be haunting the experimental machine in economics, and explains how and why the oppositions between BE and EME are structured around the interplay between the norms of rationality and the context in which rationality is exercised.     

Logic,rationality and knowledge in Ramsey's thought: reassessing ‘human logic’

This paper reconsiders Frank Ramsey's essay on subjective probability (1926) as a consistent way to articulate logic, rationality and knowledge. The first part of the essay builds an axiomatic theory of subjective probability based on ‘formal logic’, defining rationality as choice-consistency. The second part seems to open up different horizons: the evaluation of degrees of belief by ‘human logic’. Because of the interest Keynes (1931) had taken in ‘human logic’, it was considered to be a possible alternative to the formal logic underlying the neoclassical theory of individual behaviour. The analysis of Ramsey's method in the entire paper, the relation between logic and rationality it constructs and the conception of uncertainty it reveals, lead me to note on the contrary that Ramsey's human logic was a complementary logic rather than an alternative to formal logic. Defining a standard to evaluate beliefs formation according to a frequentist criterion, it completes a normative representation of rationality which supports an original theory of knowledge that appears more in line with further developments of neoclassical methodology than with Keynesian economics.     

Biased probability judgment: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample

Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of the respondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findings also indicate that the observed biases are related to individual economic outcomes, which suggests potential policy relevance of our findings.     

风电场风速预测的不确定性研究

风速预测的超前性导致其预测结果是不确定的,传统的确定性风速预测只提供确切的数值,不能满足电网规划的要求。分析了风速预测结果不确定性影响因素,并在确定性预测结果的基础上,从条件概率和预测误差分布统计规律两个角度对预测概率和置信区间进行分析和计算。仿真试验表明该方法能够为决策者提供概率预测信息,具有一定的实用性和有效性。     

Strategy-Proof Probabilistic Decision Schemes for One-Dimensional Single-Peaked Preferences

Collective decision problems are considered with a finite number of agents who have single-peaked preferences on the real line. A probabilistic decision scheme assigns a probability distribution over the real line to every profile of reported preferences. The main result of the paper is a characterization of the class of unanimous and strategy-proof probabilistic schemes with the aid of fixed probability distributions that play a role similar to that of the phantom voters in H. Moulin (Public Choice35 (1980), 437-455). Thereby, the work of Moulin (1980) is extended to the probabilistic framework. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D71, D81.     

A perspective on subjective probability for prediction and decision

The problem of assigning a meaningful subjective probability measure on a set of predictive models (inductive hypothesis) is considered. An outperformance construct is suggested as a means of reducing this to the more tractable task of assessing the distribution on a set of realizable events. Further issues on the precise interpretation of subjective probability estimation from the perspective of the decision-oriented forecaster are then considered.     

Subjective evaluations of n-person games

Using an axiomatization of subjective expected utility due to Fishburn, we characterize a class of utility functions over a set of n-person games in characteristic-function form. A probabilistic value is defined as the expectation of some player's marginal contribution with respect to some probability measure on the set of coalitions of other players. We decribe conditions under which a utility function on the set of n-person games is a probabilistic value; we prove as well an analogous result for simple games. We present additional axioms that characterize the semivalues and, in turn, the Shapley and Banzhaf values.     

Free-Trade Agreements in a Model of Trade,Migration and Politics

This paper uses a probabilistic voting model to investigate voting for a free-trade agreement between a labor-abundant country and a capital-abundant country. Migration from the labor-abundant country to the capital-abundant country increases the probability of a free-trade agreement, with lower migration costs leading to more migration and a higher free-trade probability. On the other hand, if a lower probability of free trade is caused by an increased voter bias against free-trade candidates, then there is less migration. A dynamic extension of the model is also investigated.