Fiscal Policy in Southeast Asia

Monetary policy was ineffective in dealing with the 1997 Asian macroeconomic crisis. Fiscal policy might have been more effective but was not considered for a variety of reasons.     

Fiscal Policy in Australia and Southeast Asia: An Overview

Ian M. McDonald introduces a Policy Forum on Fiscal Policy in Australia and Southeast Asia . In this Policy Forum two papers focus on the fiscal policy of the Howard Government. A third paper considers the role of fiscal policy in the currency crisis in Southeast Asia.     

论东亚地区社会信任与经济增长的正相关效应

越来越多的研究表明社会信任是解释经济增长的一个重要变量。不过一般认为华人社会是一个低信任度的社会。但WSV的调查数据证明不仅华人社会，而且整个东亚地区中那些在近40年经历了快速增长的经济体中都有非常高的信任度，这种信任也是这一地区经济增长的源泉。     

Catching Up and Convergence: Long-run Growth in East Asia

The paper attempts to combine the traditional learning model with the recent theory of economic growth using Maddison's long‐run real GDP per capita data of the three fastest growing countries in East Asia: Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. The authors first explain games of catching‐up among nations, and then explain the learning coefficients of Taiwan and Korea with Japan and the United States through periods before and after World War II. The model of leaning leads to the logistic model of economic growth of convergence between two countries. Using time‐series data, the coefficients of a logistic model are estimated to confirm that the real GDP per capita of Taiwan and Korea are converging to that of Japan and the United States, respectively. Similarly, Japan's GDP per capita converges to that of the United States. The time required for finite convergence for these countries is also estimated.     

Economic growth and unemployment in East Asia

Barro and Sala-i-Martin （2004） analyzed the empirical determinants of growth. The data used in this paper consists of panel data of several macroeconomic variables observed for 55 years 0950-2004） in six East Asian countries and regions. Following the implications of semi-endogenous growth theory, the author regressed output growth on the determinants of steady-state income. The estimation and test results suggest the existence of significant relationship between steady-state income and （trend weighted） R ＆ D input both in Japan and South Korea. In addition, following Cellini （1995）, the author also considers cointegration and error-correction methods as the growth regression of East Asian countries. Meanwhile, Chang, et al （2004） derived the conclusion that the decreases in reallocation shocks are main factor in a downward trend in natural rate of unemployment for South Korea. The author extends this analysis using structural VAR to other Asian countries and regions, Japan and Taiwan region. Impulse responses show that the growth of production in Korea and Taiwan reduce unemployment, but, in Japan, this raises unemployment.     

Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way

This paper extends Minsky's financial instability hypothesisto the case of the open, ‘liberalised’, economy,making it possible to put forward a specifically Minskyan accountof the road to the financial crisis in Southeast Asia (1997/1998).The analysis suggests that the threats to growth and employmentemanating from the financial sector which Minsky identifiedin the closed economy setting are much intensified in open,liberalised, developing economies. Financial liberalisationis an important key factor in this process. Rival explanationsof the crisis are examined and rejected in favour of the extendedMinskyan explanation. The policy implications are derived anddiscussed.     

Accounting for Recent Economic Growth in Southeast Asia

This paper identifies the major factors explaining GDP growth in a number of Southeast Asian countries during the 1980s and early 90s. Estimates of the contribution of technological change, increases in the endowments of labor and capital, movements in the terms of trade, and changes in domestic output prices are reported for Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand. Partial results for Indonesia and Malaysia are also shown. An index number approach is used; it has a tight theoretical foundation, being based on the GNP/GDP function approach to modeling the production sector of an open economy.     

Academic Economic Opinion in East Asia

Surveys of economists' opinions have been reported from around the world over the past two decades, but never (as far as we are aware) from a non-Western country. This article presents the results of our survey of academic economists drawn from ten East Asian nations. Respondents gave their views on a number of economic propositions ranging across issues of deregulation, government business enterprises, micro-economic and labour market reform, income distribution, and attitudes to the market. Finally, the article reports the results of multidimensional scaling techniques which were used to compare the attitudes of East Asian academic economists toward the market with those of their international colleagues. Overall, we found that while our colleagues in Asia make some allowances for circumstances unique to fast-growing developing economies, their predilection toward market solutions to economic problems reflects that of their (predominantly) Western training. Economists in the ‘Tiger’ nations (Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea) more closely reflect the views of colleagues in the market-friendly West (especially North America, Australia and Germany) than do economists in the newly emerging (‘non-Tiger’) nations such as Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines.     

Measuring international competitiveness: experience from East Asia

This paper uses a new measure of real exchange rates as an indicator of international competitiveness. This new measure involves defining all prices and exchange rates on an appropriately weighted basket of currencies rather than a single currency. The measure is applied to the data for Japan, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. For comparison purposes, we calculate real exchange rates based on purchasing power parity (PPP) for these countries. To check for the relative performance of the two measures, cointegration tests are employed. The results indicate that the new measure tends to be closely related with the export growth for the sample countries, while the PPP-based measure is not. Moreover, the PPP-based real exchange rates tend to understate the measures of competitiveness for these countries. This result has important implications in terms of the levels of these countries' exchange rates as well as the well-known Balassa hypothesis.     

Unorthodox Ownership and Governance Structures in East Asia

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

中国愿与东亚各国共同建设和谐世界——2006东亚投资论坛在威海召开

7月29日,为期两天的2006东亚投资论坛在山东省威海市召开。论坛由中国国际关系学会、山东省人民政府和威海市人民政府共同主办。全国人大常委会副委员长成思危、山东省省长韩寓群、中国企业联合会副会长郑斯林、外交部部长助理崔天凯、中国国际关系学会常务副会长吴建民、威海市市委书记崔曰臣出席了论坛并致词。出席论坛的还有来自中国、日本、韩国和东盟10国以及美国、南非和津巴布韦等23个国家的政府官员、企业家、学者和媒体人士等400多人。这是继2005年首届东亚投资论坛在威海成功举办后,该论坛再一次在威海举办。论坛旨在通过东亚政界…     

Environmental rationalities and the development state in East Asia: Prospects for a sustainability transition

This paper reviews what is known about recent trends in environmental governance among the newly industrializing countries of East Asia and the implications of these developments for a sustainability transition within the region. The conceptual starting point for the review is research that examines sustainability transitions within the framework of a multi-level perspective on system innovation. One of the challenges presented by this framework is that of understanding how existing political economies and governance structures promote stability or change in socio-technical regimes. By socio-technical regimes we mean the predominant organizational, social and technological configurations through which societal needs are constituted and met. In the case of the rapidly industrializing and urbanizing economies of East Asia, the trajectory of socio-technical regimes will have profound consequences for local, regional and global environments. Our review of trends in environmental governance as they relate to socio-technical regimes within the region traces a pattern of initial efforts to strengthen environmental regulatory regimes very much along the lines of the policy models of OECD economies. The degree to which these initial efforts have taken root varies from country to country in the region. What is beginning to emerge in several countries within the region, however, are a variety of policy and institutional innovations that hold promise for opening up spaces for change in socio-technical regimes, and for creating opportunities for new pathways of industrialization and urbanization to take hold that are less pollution, materials and energy-intensive.     

云南与东南亚南亚开展技术转移对策研究

技术转移是促进技术进步、加快产业发展的重要手段.文章分析了云南省与东南亚、南亚开展技术转移的优势和条件,提出了开展技术转移的总体思路与策略.在此基础上,从加强宏观管理与设计、完善技术转移服务体系以及优化技术转移环境等方面提出了相应的对策措施.     

东亚复苏面临挑战

<正> 世界银行11月初发布的东亚和太平洋地区经济半年报《在变局中前进》指出:2002年上半年全面展开的东亚复苏目前遇到了来自全球、地区和国内各种不确定因素的综合挑战,凸现了政府决策者推进改革以加强公共安全,减少外来冲击的危害,培育国内生产率增长点的迫切性。     

对我国企业投资东南亚、南亚考察研究

本文所指东南亚包括越南、老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸、泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚、文莱、菲律宾10国,南亚包括巴基斯坦、印度、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡4国,它们作为我国政府始终重视的境外投资区域在“走出去”战略中具有举足轻重的地位。对国内企业在该地区投资的现实状况和发展中存在的主要问题进行科学系统的研究,尤其是细致剖析境外投资的国别地域特征、投资主体的投资决策模式、境外企业的微观运行机理和制度障碍,对企业和政府都具有重大的决策参考意义。本文作者有针对性地选取了对东南亚、南亚投资较多的五个典型地区——广东、浙江、上海、江苏、山东5省(市)作为实证分析的样本采集点,综合运用问卷、实地考察和座谈三种形式,对42家国内企业进行了境外投资调查,得出系列结论与判断。希望引起业界关注。     

东亚货币合作问题及实现途径研究

本文从经济政策协调与监督、区域融资便利和紧急救援机制、东亚汇率制度安排和区域内单一货币四个层面,深刻分析东亚货币合作的理论动因、新进展、制约因素及实现途径,认为东亚各国只有加强区域内各国信息沟通与政策协调、建立区域性紧急融资救援管理机构、构建东亚汇率合作机制和区域内单一货币,才能有效地进行东亚货币合作,最终实现东亚货币合作的目标。     

中国与东南亚农业合作展望

中国与东南亚发展农业合作潜力巨大,中国与东南亚的农业合作已处于起步阶段,并取得了一定的成绩,但仍存在一些问题,中国与东南亚的农业合作有待于进一步发展,加强双边的农业合作可以通过加强制度合作,最大程度利用现有资源来进行.     

Climate Change and Regional Vulnerability to Transnational Security Threats in Southeast Asia

Transnational and non-state threats including international organized crime, terrorism, illicit trafficking (in drugs, wildlife, humans, arms, etc.), piracy, infectious disease, and illegal migration flows are major concerns in Southeast Asia. This paper examines IPCC projections for climate change to the region and discusses possible impacts of these changes upon transnational security. Overall, climate change could increase potential vulnerability to various transnational security threats. Southeast Asian livelihood and social systems will be pressured, while state and civil society capacity will be strained. This will intensify existing vulnerabilities to non-state security threats and raise the overall level of vulnerability and risk to both human and state security. Predicted climate change impacts are also likely to strengthen or help revive sub-state networks that have traditionally responded to environmental change and pressure via violence, crime, smuggling, banditry, trafficking, terrorism, and other such activities. This will contribute to the evolution, expansion, and growth of “new” war fighting groups while raising overall vulnerability to non-state threats from local to global scales.