双寡头竞争下最优进口贸易政策选择

文章在水平差别产品的伯川德模型中对从量和从价关税进行了分析比较。研究发现,效用函数必须满足一些严格的假设,才能保证征收关税将改善本国社会福利。从量关税的进口限制效果明显强于从价关税。但对于均衡从量关税,总存在一个对能给本国带来更高社会福利的从价关税。两者的差距取决于均衡点本国市场对外国产品的需求弹性,需求弹性越小,社会福利差距越大。     

The theory of effective protection a critique

Summary A linear two-by-two general equilibrium model of international trade has been developed with international mobility of capital goods and capital funds. By means of this model the consequences of imposing an ad valorem tariff on imported inputs and imported consumption have been investigated. Special attention has been paid to the consequences of a differentiated tariff structure for total imports.The analysis leads to the conclusion that in the present model a unique relation between the differentiated tariff structure and the effective protective rate does not exist.In many respects this article draws heavily upon my doctoral dissertation:Heterogeen kapitaal en internationale handel, mimeographed, Tilburg, 1973     

A comparison of Ad valorem and per unit taxes in regulated monopolies

This paper compares the output and revenue effects in the rate-of-return regulated monopoly model. Both the ad valorem and the unit tax generally decrease the use of capital, and as such, reduce the output and raise the price. In addition, it is shown that Suits and Musgrave's conclusion of higher revenue of an ad valorem tax at a given output can apply to a regulated monopolist if the marginal product of labor under the ad valorem tax is greater than or equal to that under the unit tax. Similarly, their second conclusion, that for a given tax revenue an ad valorem tax has a larger output than a unit tax rate before the revenue-maximizing tax rate, can also apply to the regulated monopolist.     

WTO反倾销协议日落复审条款及美国反倾销日落复审国内法之比较研究

依照WTO反倾销日落复审制度，反倾销税在征收5年后应该终止。但事实上我国的出口产品在美国被采取反倾销措施5年后，并没有因此规定而被停止征收反倾销税，这种无限期地实施反倾销措施偏离了世界贸易组织设置反倾销日落复审初衷。文章对WTO反倾销协议中的日落复审条款和美国反倾销日落复审的国内法进行了详细的分析，并指出美国反倾销日落复审的国内法存在违背WTO协议的可能，进而为我国企业提供有针对性的对策。     

上海市三大产业CES生产函数弹性估计

替代参数的合理估计是应用CES生产函数进行经济活动分析首要前提。而现有研究现有关于上海市三大产业生产函数替代参数的估计,使得后续研究缺乏必要的依据。本文以各统计年鉴中上海经济统计数据为基础,结合CES生产函数一阶优化条件式中的经济变量进行数据的处理,采用贝叶斯方法估计出CES生产函数假设下的上海市三大产业的替代弹性,从而为相关研究提供了可行的方法和可信的参数。     

货物原产地规则中的从价百分比标准问题研究

货物原产地规则通常是指为确定货物原产地而实施的普遍适用的法律、法规和行政裁决。从价百分比标准是判定实质性改变的标准之一,是货物原产地规则中的重要问题,通过规定从价百分比标准,可保证一定的区域内增值,使区域内的相关产业得到保护。     

美国反倾销日落复审国内法分析及我国的应对策略

美国根据WTO的反倾销协议确定了本国的反倾销日落复审制度,但是我国绝大多数的出口产品在美国被采取反倾销措施5年后,却并没因此被停止征收反倾销税,这与我国的企业不重视、也不了解美国的日落复审制度有关。本文从美国反倾销日落复审的法律实践入手,着重分析美国日落复审制度的关键问题,指出美国反倾销日落复审的国内法违背WTO协议的可能,并提出相应的对策,以指导我国有效地应对美国的日落复审。     

Technological Progress and Youth Employment in South Korea

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the extent to which technology progress and youth employment are related. In doing so, we divide workers into two groups – young workers and old (prime-aged) workers - and then estimate the elasticity of substitution between (physical) capital and workers à la Jaimovich et al. (2013. “The Demand for Youth: Explaining Age Differences in the Volatility of Hours.” American Economic Review 103 (7): 3022–3044) by using the Korean labour market data between 2000 and 2014. Our findings indicate that the elasticity of substitution is greater (or at least not smaller) for young workers than for old workers.     

Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas

Trade negotiations deal with cuts in bound duties, which differ substantially from applied preferential duties, and from MFN applied duties. Based on WTO’s Consolidated Tariff Schedules (CTS) database and on national sources, this paper proposes a systematic assessment of ad valorem-equivalent bound duties at the detailed product level, for almost all WTO members. Fully consistent with the assessment of applied protection provided in the MAcMap-HS6 database, this work allows the full structure of protection—bound, MFN applied, preferential applied duties—to be accurately assessed. We thus provide the first worldwide assessment of the binding overhang, i.e. the gap between bound and applied MFN tariffs. We also assess the likely applied-protection impact of an agreement in the Doha Round. JEL no. F13     

中国与欧盟反倾销实体法的差别分析

我国《反倾销条例》与欧盟的反倾销法存在着不少区别,实体法中存在着非市场经济国家出口产品"正常价值"的确定、进口商品价格的可比性因素、损害确定方面、倾销与损害之间因果关系的确定方式、反规避措施、公共利益的界定等六个方面的主要区别。究其原因,有的是立法技术、经贸水平等方面的原因,还有的是立法价值取向的原因,欧盟反倾销调查的价值取向是满足资产阶级的经济利益,并不是追求贸易自由和中低收入者的利益。     

The upgrading effect of voluntary export restraints

Summary Given that a volume-defined VER is introduced on two differently priced varieties of a good,(i) the transfer of the VER-rent to the exporting country will cause imports of both varieties to fall,(ii) the relative price change in favour of the high cost variety counteracts this import fall and could in fact outweigh it,(iii) an ad valorem tariff restoring the original relative price of the two varieties would increase welfare and that welfare increase could in fact outweigh the welfare loss due to the VER-transfer to the exporting country.     

On the comparison of tariffs and quotas in oligopolistic intermediate goods markets

This paper examines and compares the effects of tariffs and quotas imposed on oligopolistic intermediate input markets. We introduce tariff and quota revenues and the substitutability of all inputs including two intermediate inputs. We focus on Cournot–Nash equilibrium and show that if the price elasticity of demand for the final good is smaller (respectively greater) than the elasticity of substitution between the intermediate inputs, the output of the duopolist in the protected country is smaller (respectively greater) under a quota than under a tariff.     

反倾销措施产业救济效果:基于寡占竞争模型的理论研究

近年来,随着全球反倾销案例的快速上升,反倾销措施的产业救济效果受到广泛关注,国内外已有相关研究以实证居多,但理论分析比较鲜见.本文通过将国际贸易理论与寡占竞争理论相结合,构建了开放经济体系的寡占竞争模型.在此基础上,重点探讨了进出口国的行业集中度、进口集中度、进出口国厂商之间的竞争激烈程度等因素影响反倾销措施的产业救济效果的内在机理.理论推导发现:本国进口竞争行业集中度、本国厂商间的产量推测弹性以及本国厂商对外国厂商的推测弹性都对反倾销措施的产业救济效果产生不利影响,而进口集中度会对反倾销措施的产业救济效果产生积极影响.     

The effects of globalization and technology on the elasticity of substitution

The elasticity of substitution between capital and labor (\(\sigma\)) is usually considered a “deep parameter”. This paper shows, in contrast, that \(\sigma\) is affected by both globalization and technology, and that different intensities in these drivers have different consequences for the OECD and the non-OECD economies. In the OECD, we find that the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor is below unity; that it increases along with the degree of globalization; but it decreases with the level of technology. Although results for the non-OECD area are more heterogeneous, we find that technology enhances the substitutability between capital and labor. We also find evidence of a non-significant impact of the capital-output ratio on the labor share irrespective of the degree of globalization (which would be consistent with an average aggregate Cobb–Douglas technology). Given the relevance of \(\sigma\) for economic growth and the functional distribution of income, the intertwined linkage among globalization, technology and the elasticity of substitution should be taken into account in any policy makers’ objective function.     

Non-tariff and overall protection: evidence across countries and over time

This paper analyzes the evolution of the incidence and intensity of non-tariff measures (NTMs). It extends earlier work by measuring protection from NTMs over time from a newly available database and provides evidence on the evolution of NTMs. In particular, building on Kee et al. (Econ J 119(534):172–199, 2009), this paper estimates the ad valorem equivalents of NTMs for 97 countries at the product level over the period 1997–2015. We show that the incidence and the intensity of NTMs were both increasing over this period, with NTMs becoming an even more dominant source of trade protection. We are also able to investigate the evolution of overall protection derived jointly from tariffs and NTMs. The results show that the overall protection level, for most countries and products, has not decreased despite the fall in tariffs associated with multilateral, regional and bilateral trade agreements in recent decades. We also document an increase in overall trade protection during the recent 2008 financial crisis. Overall, this study sheds light on an under-researched aspect of trade liberalization: the proliferation and increase of NTMs.     

Firm and industry elasticities of substitution: The two factor case

Summary For the industry composed of single output, two factor firms, industry elasticity of demand for one of the factors with respect to the price of the other is negative or positive as the elasticity of demand for industry output is greater or less thanindustry elasticity of substitution between the factors. Using isoclines, vectors, isoquants, and isoscales, it is shown that, where firm isoquants are non-homothetic, industry elasticity of substitution for constantindustry output allows for adjustment of the level of firm output, and thus exceeds firm elasticity of substitution for constantfirm output.He wishes to thank two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions.     

Indeterminacy with small externalities: The role of non-separable preferences

In this paper we consider a Ramsey one-sector model with non-separable homothetic preferences, endogenous labor and productive external effects arising from average levels of capital and labor. We show that indeterminacy cannot arise when there are only capital externalities but that it does occur when there are only labor external effects. We prove that sunspot fluctuations are fully consistent with small market imperfections and realistic calibrations for the elasticity of capital–labor substitution (including the Cobb-Douglas specification) provided the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the elasticity of labor supply are large enough.     

Substitutions among energy imputs in U.S. manufacturing

Summary and Conclusion With cross-section data on the purchases of four energy inputs by 11 U.S. manufacturing industries, Allen partial cross elasticities of input substitution and own price elasticities of demand were computed. The sample set represents 85 percent of total manufacturing energy demand in 1962. The substitution elasticities between fuel oil and natural gas, fuel oil and purchased electricity, and between natural gas and electricity, were statistically significant for about half of the 11 two-digit SIC industries studied. These elasticities ranged between 12.9 and 1.7 with half of them less than 4.0.Importantly, the elasticity of substitution between coal and the above three energy inputs was significantly different from zero in only three manufacturing industries (comprising some 35 percent of total manufacturing energy demand). Thus it would appear that only three U.S. manufacturing sectors will contribute towards the substitution of domestic for international energy sources. Indirect substitution between energy sources, with the consequent implications for the balance of payments, will primarily have to come from the substitution of electricity (from coal-fired plants) for natural gas (from Canada) and fuel oil (indirectly from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America).Similar substitution results were found when all 11 industries were aggregated together or divided into large and small energy demand groups. As well, there appear to be no significant differences in overall substitution response between the two categories of large and small energy users. Supporting the substitution results, we found that the own price elasticity of demand for coal to be about –.5 and not different from zero while the price elasticities for natural gas, fuel oil, and purchased electricity were between –.7 and –2.67 (and statistically different from zero).As a general conclsuion, the substitution of domestic coal for other energy inputs will primarily have to come indirectly through greater use of coal to produce electricity which is purchased by the manufacturing sector. The scope for direct substitution of coal for other energy inputs in U.S. manufacturing is limited to only three sectors and cannot be expected to have an exceptionally large impact on mitigating the inflation and blanace of payments implications of the recent increases in the price of imported energy inputs.This work was undertaken at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Discussions with George Green, A. Ray Grimes, Jr., Michael Mohr, John R. Moroney, Gorti Narasimham, and Benjamin Wolkowitz are acknowledged. These individuals, as well as the B.E.A. and the author's present employer, remain independent from the views expressed in this study.     

反倾销、贸易政策不确定性与中国企业高质量出口

贸易摩擦和保护主义频发加剧了贸易不确定性。本文试图从反倾销引致的贸易政策不确定性(TPU)这一新视角阐述微观企业如何应对不利冲击以实现高质量出口。基于全球反倾销数据和高度细化的海关数据匹配得到的2000-2008年样本数据,利用高维面板固定效应估计模型,本文对TPU如何影响多产品企业高质量出口进行了实证检验。研究发现：①TPU提高,会倒逼企业升级出口产品质量,考虑逆向因果等潜在内生性问题之后,结果依然稳健。②企业内产品转换是TPU倒逼出口企业产品质量升级的主要作用机制。③异质性分析发现,加工贸易、外资企业、资本品行业和高技术行业中,这一倒逼效应更显著。在国际价值链断裂加剧贸易不确定性的新形势下,本文对于深刻理解TPU和高水平对外开放之间的关联具有重要意义。     

Effect of a tariff on the environment and welfare: The case of an environmental differentiated duopoly in a Green Market

Employing a model of environmental quality-differentiated products, we analyze the effect of an ad valorem tariff on the unit emission level of the products, the environment and welfare in the Bertrand and the Cournot duopoly cases, respectively. We show that the effect of the tariff policy depends on the mode of market competition and the degree of marginal social valuation of environmental damage.