Die fiktive Integration der Stadtstaaten im Rahmen des Länderfinanzausgleichs

The German states Bavaria and Hesse have initiated a legal case against the German fiscal equalisation system. One thing which is criticised is the special treatment afforded to the so-called city-states Berlin, Bremen and Hamburg. Citizens of these states are weighted with 135% instead of the standard 100% weighting of citizen in other federal states. There are different proposals to deal with this spillover problem. One proposal by the advisory board of the Federal Ministry of Finance was for a virtual fusion of the city-states with their neighbouring states, for fiscal equalisation purposes only. This paper analyses the effects of such a virtual fusion on the fiscal equalisation system.     

Distributional effects of the EC budget

The continuing dispute concerning the distribution of EC budgetary contributions among the member states, felt to be unjust particularly by Britaln, has been marring the Community's public image for some time now. How is this distribution effected and what possibilities are there for readjustment?     

Problems of monetary integrationin Europe

On December 4/5, 1978 the heads of states and governments of the EC-member states are meeting in order to take decisions on the new European Monetary System agreed on at their Bremen summit. The problems of monetary integration in Europe are discussed in this article.     

Problems of monetary integrationin Europe

On December 4/5, 1978 the heads of states and governments of the EC-member states are meeting in order to take decisions on the new European Monetary System agreed on at their Bremen summit. The problems of monetary integration in Europe are discussed in this article.

     

Der Reformationstag als gesetzlicher Feiertag und seine fiskalischen Effekte

In the German system of fiscal equalisation, Länder (states) with below-average tax revenue receive above average payments. The difference between the average and the own tax revenue per capita is compensated up to 63%. To prevent states from getting payments from other states by lowering their own tax rates, tax revenue with taxing autonomy is standardised. States can also influence their tax revenues by changing the number of holidays because each state decides on its own. In 2018, the Bremen, Hamburg, Lower Saxony and Schleswig Holstein introduced designated Reformation Day as a holiday (Berlin also plans to add a holiday). A state with numerous holidays will have lower tax revenues and higher payments in the fiscal equalisation system than the same state with no extra holidays. To consider each state’s real ability to pay the fiscal equalisation system, it is necessary to eliminate the effect of differing holidays. This paper shows the fiscal consequence of the new holiday and a way to neutralise this effect and calculates the impact to the states’ payments in the fiscal equalisation system.     

Steuermehreinnahmen er?ffnen budget?re Spielr?ume zum Abbau der kalten Progression

In May 2012 the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting released a tax revenue estimate for the current year and the following four years based on key macroeconomic data supplied by the German Federal Government. The new official tax estimate forecasts additional revenues for central, state and local government. Tax revenues are expected to bring additional €24.9bn between 2012 and 2016. With the budgetary leeway, the fiscal drag, which has occurred since 2010, could be eliminated in 2013 and 2014. The Act to reduce fiscal drag would result in a revenue loss of €6bn a year.     

Pensionsfonds der Länder und Schuldenbremse

Germany’s federal states employ more than a million civil servants, whose future pension claims are by no means financially secured. This will cause a considerable additional budgetary burden in the coming decades. The pressure thus created to reduce expenditure can be alleviated by setting up a pension fund. However, this requires that the capital market yield must exceed the annual adjustment rate of the civil servants’ remuneration. The contributions of the federal states to such a fund should ideally be financed from budgetary savings. If the necessary rules are complied with, future budgets can also be relieved, provided the contributions to these funds are financed — wholly or partly — by loans.     

An Empirical Study on Bud(g)etary Slack,Operational Efficiency, and Transfer Value

Budgetary slack directly impairs a firm’s budgetary management. Budgetary slack at a firm’s business unit level makes the firm level budget like a building on sand. However, it is difficult to detect the existence and to evaluate the extent of budgetary slack at a firm’s business unit level. Starting with the five-year historical data of a service delivery center in a U.S. Fortune 500 firm, this research develops a comprehensive approach for probing and assessing the budgetary slack in a firm’s business units. The approach leverages operational efficiencies and transfer values of business units of a firm’s internal transfer system. It also contributes to evaluating the rationale of the budget of a firm’s business unit in the budgetary approval process.     

Forecasting With Temporally Aggregated Demand Signals in a Retail Supply Chain

Suppliers of consumer packaged goods are facing an increasingly challenging situation as they work to fulfill orders from their retail partners’ distribution facilities. Traditionally these suppliers have generated forecasts of a given retailer's orders using records of that retailer's past orders. However, it is becoming increasingly common for retail firms to collect and share large volumes of point‐of‐sale (POS) data, thus presenting an alternative data signal for suppliers to use in generating forecasts. A question then arises as to which data produce the most accurate forecasts. Compounding this question is the fact that forecasters often temporally aggregate data for consolidation or to produce forecasts in larger time buckets. Extant literature prescribes two countervailing statistical effects, information loss and variance reduction, that could play significant roles in determining the impact of temporal aggregation on forecast accuracy. Utilizing a large set of paired order and POS data, this study examines these relationships.     

Financing EU cohesion policy in Central and Eastern Europe

Following publication of Agenda 2000 the EU Commission has been criticised as overly optimistic on the budgetary consequences of the envisaged accession of a number of Central and East European Countries. This article briefly reviews the evolution of regional disparities within the EU and the impact of the Structural and Cohesion Funds on the present recipient regions. It then investigates whether it is financially feasible to extend EU regional policy to the five likely new CEEC member states without a major reform of the present system.     

员工参与对于预算管理绩效影响的路径分析

本文以路径分析方法为基础,对我国上市公司内员工参与和管理绩效之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果发现,员工对于预算目标的接受度会对员工参与和管理绩效之间的关系产生影响,其影响程度会受到预算目标困难度的调节,预算目标困难度高时,员工参与可经由强化预算目标接受而间接提升预算管理绩效;困难度低时,则无此效果。     

我国高等学校会计制度存在的问题及对策

目前，我国高校现行预算会计制度不能真实、完整地核算和反映实施国库集中收付制度和政府采购制度后出现的新业务，不能全面、完整地反映高校的债务，收付实现制的记账基础也存在局限性。应借鉴美国高校会计制度的经验，改进我国高校会计制度。其对策是：从预算会计模式发展到基金会计模式，以基金为基础，按照基金种类进行会计核算与报告的会计模式；逐步实行权责发生制计量基础；在报告体系上，从预算执行情况报表扩展为财务报告。     

Künftige Finanzplanung der EU — neue Prioritäten,höhere Effizienz?

On May 2, 2018, the European Commission proposed a limited and realistic increase for the EU’s next multi-annual financial framework 2021–2027. The draft implies a roughly constant common budget for the EU with a focus on European stabilisation policy and the provision of centralised public goods provision rather than agriculture and cohesion. This shift mirrors the priorities spelled out by Emanuel Macron. However, the Commission combined this pragmatism with its interest in improving budgetary flexibility and autonomy. There is no doubt that the EU27 faces difficult negotiations. EU Member States’ initial reactions to the European Commision’s recent proposals were dominated by juste retour considerations reminiscent of past negotiations. Strengthening EU expenditure through European added value and fundamentally reforming their own resource system, including the introduction of tax-based own resources, will end the deadlock surrounding net position thinking. A more fundamental view on the fiscal policy of the European Union is given in the last paper, which states that the EU requires a complete overhaul of the economic governance structure. It offers a tentative approach that avoids moral hazard problems as well as fallacies about conditional backstops during times of crisis.     

现行预算会计系统的信息“赤字”及改进策略分析

政府会计信息的需求机制是一项客观的要求,影响到会计信息披露的范围和质量要求;而会计信息的供给机制则存在一定的主观性,并且受到技术和规范上的限制。我国现行的预算会计在信息供求层面上,呈现出明显的信息披露不足,存在着“信息赤字”问题。分析经济、政治、社会环境以及国际新公共管理运动的要求,改革预算会计体系,建立政府会计体系已经成为必然的趋势,这是减少信息赤字、有效地评价政府和进行决策的前提和基础。     

Value at risk and conditional extreme value theory via markov regime switching models

This study develops a new conditional extreme value theory‐based (EVT) model that incorporates the Markov regime switching process to forecast extreme risks in the stock markets. The study combines the Markov switching ARCH (SWARCH) model (which uses different sets of parameters for various states to cope with the structural changes for measuring the time‐varying volatility of the return distribution) with the EVT to model the tail distribution of the SWARCH processed residuals. The model is compared with unconditional EVT and conditional EVT‐GARCH models to estimate the extreme losses in three leading stock indices: S&P 500 Index, Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprise Index. The study found that the EVT‐SWARCH model outperformed both the GARCH and SWARCH models in capturing the non‐normality and in providing accurate value‐at‐risk forecasts in the in‐sample and out‐sample tests. The EVTSWARCH model, which exhibits the features of measuring the volatility of a heteroscedastic financial return series and coping with the non‐normality owing to structural changes, can be an alternative measure of the tail risk. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:155–181, 2008     

Ein Länderfi nanzausgleich ohne Berlin — Gewinner und Verlierer

The author simulates the federal fi nancial equalisation system in Germany without Berlin with respect to the adjustment year 2011. The model assumes that the capital city is compensated by the distribution of value added tax (VAT). Hence winners as well as losers can be identifi ed at both stages of adjustment within the federal fi nancial equalisation system. The result clarifi es the position of Hesse and Bavaria, which intend to take legal action against the German federal fi nancial equalisation system. In particular these two German states should not push for the exclusion of Berlin in this context. Otherwise the scenario would lead to considerable losses for both states.     

The Politics of Self–Restraint: FDI Subsidies and Japanese Mercantilism

Home governments seek to enhance the international competitiveness of private enterprises not only through export credit, but also through preferential loans for foreign direct investment (FDI). Indeed, contrary to the common image of nation‐states resenting their loss of jurisdiction over the mobile transnational corporation, some governments have become active financiers of multinational investment to serve their industrial policy goals. The uneven use by industrialized states of preferential credit to further MNC expansion challenges the current characterization of home government policy as both homogenous and ineffective for the task of industrial promotion. The world's most active state in FDI finance, Japan, has enjoyed an inordinate degree of freedom to engage in subsidization of MNC investment since no international regime on FDI credit, similar to the OECD arrangement on government export finance, exists. Moreover, Japanese labor has not challenged the legitimacy of state FDI finance. In the absence of international or societal constraints on soft FDI credit, Japanese self‐restraint in FDI subsidization is better explained by the internal budgetary makeup of government financial institutions with a mandate to finance FDI. Treasury bureaucrats concerned with healthy public finances and politicians eager to reward core support groups, have repeatedly competed for control over the budgetary strings on soft FDI finance. This political contest is far from over. This paper, therefore, highlights the political agency behind rules of financial discipline that have so far inhibited Japanese rent‐seeking international economic behavior.     

中国预算内收支长期稳定性和均衡性实证分析——基于1978-2003年的样本

本文以中国1978-2003年的财政预算内收支数据为样本,分析财政预算内收入、预算内支出、经济增长等变量的长期稳定性和它们之间的均衡关系,发现,虽然1998-2003年的积极财政政策加剧了数据的波动性,但预算内收入与其子项目之间、预算内支出与其分项目之间、预算内收支与经济增长之间均存在长期稳定的均衡关系,表明预算内收入结构(即预算内收入和其组成子项的比例关系)和预算内支出结构具有稳定性,财政预算内收支活动稳定而又积极地促进了经济增长。     

财政支出效益评价的理论与实践研究

财政支出是以国家为主体,以财政的事权为依据进行的一种财政资金分配活动,集中反映了国家的职能活动范围及其所造成的耗费。凡是财政部门为行使职能所支付的一切支出以及具有满足公共需要性质的支出．都属于财政支出范畴。据此,财政支出效益的评价不仅要关注预算内支出,还应关注大量的“准财政活动”领域中形成的财政支出。