Managing risk in an unstable world

With emerging markets like China and politically unstable countries like Saudi Arabia figuring more than ever into companies' investment calculations, business leaders are turning to political risk analysis to measure the impact of politics on potential markets, minimize risks, and make the most of global opportunities. But political risk is more subjective than its economic counterpart. It is influenced by the passage of laws, the foibles of government leaders, and the rise of popular movements. So corporate leaders must grapple not just with broad, easily observable trends but also with nuances of society and even quirks of personality. And those hard-to-quantify factors must constantly be pieced together into an ongoing narrative within historical and regional contexts. As goods, services, information, ideas, and people cross borders today with unprecedented velocity, corporations debating operational or infrastructural investments abroad increasingly need objective, rigorous assessments. One tool for measuring and presenting stability data, for example, incorporates 20 composite indicators of risk in emerging markets and scores risk variables according to both their structural and their temporal components. The indicators are then organized into four equally weighted subcategories whose ratings are aggregated into a single stability score. Countries are ranked on a scale of zero (a failed state) to100 (a fully institutionalized, stable democracy). Companies can buy political risk analyses from consultants or, as some large energy and financial services organizations have done, develop them in-house. Either way, a complete and accurate picture of any country's risk requires analysts with strong reportorial skills; timely, accurate data on a variety of social and political trends; and a framework for evaluating the impact of individual risks on stability.     

Managing risk through the veil of ignorance

Background. We view overconfidence within risk management as a problem likely to manifest within philosophical preferences for anticipationism over resilienism, and in assumptions that risks are objectively real external powers or potentialities rather than subjective knowledge propositions. Methods. We argue that the realist tradition within Italian social theory, first crystallised by Niccolò Machiavelli and later elaborated by the sociologist Vilfredo Pareto, offers valuable lessons for corporate risk management praxis by demanding that we map out the complex relations between the risk subjectivities of risk managers, and their objective risk environments, from a standpoint of psychological and sociological realism which stresses the risk ignorance of practitioners. We caution that risk management efforts to improve risk subjectivities to achieve perfect veridicality to objective risk environments might often amount to a wishful bildungsroman of epistemological growth, reflecting the common aspirations of risk managers to demonstrate professional competence. We suggest that the profession should control this overconfidence problem by stressing the corrigibility of risk subjectivities with reference to sociological understandings that reflect on the widespread risk ignorance that can persist and even intensify where risk management effort is made. Results. Following the macrosociological framework sketched by Pareto, we show how two common ‘modes of uncertainty’ can be scrutinised for their adaptive fitness to two common types of risk environment. Conclusions. It can be helpful to think sociologically of organisations as engaging with some highly significant strategic risks blindly through a veil of ignorance.     

Further examination of the demographic and social factors affecting risk aversion

In this paper we examine how social and demographic factors explain risk aversion. Specifically, we focus on how an individual’s place of residence effects his level of risk aversion. Israel is a natural experiment field for such an investigation since the majority of its population lives either in big or small cities, moshavs, or kibbutzim, where the last two forms of settlement being unique to Israel. The kibbutz follows the prototype of a collectivist culture; the moshav follows the prototype of an individualistic culture. This environment also allows us to reexamine the contradiction between the “cushion hypothesis” and previous findings regarding the risk aversion of Israeli kibbutz residents. In general, we find that the moshav respondents demonstrate the lowest level of risk aversion and the kibbutz (and the small city) respondents demonstrate the highest. However, further examination reveals that the risk aversions are domain specific. The urban residents of both big and small cites are similar to each other than they are to residents of the kibbutz and the moshav, who, in turn, are more similar to each other than they are to the urban residents. For example, kibbutz and moshav respondents are less risk averse in insurance and gambling, but more risk averse in driving and sport, compared to urban residents. Interestingly, on average, the respondents demonstrate the highest level of risk aversion for extreme sports and the lowest level of risk aversion for irresponsible driving.     

Managing perceived risk for credit card purchase through supplementary services

The present study aims to understand the significance of supplementary services as nonpersonal sources of information to consumers to handle perceived risk associated with the purchase of credit card services. The impact of supplementary services is particularly studied towards functional risk and psychological risk. The study is based on primary data collected by a survey with the help of a questionnaire administered through personal interviews. It is found that supplementary services can play a significant role in controlling functional and psychological perceived risk associated with credit card services. Marketers of credit cards can enhance the value of services to customers and can thus enhance purchase possibilities by reducing perceived risk through supplementary services that are controllable. Perceived risk in financial services marketing is an important factor from the consumers’ point of view for purchase decisions and is also an issue of significance to service marketers. It is an original attempt to examine the relationship between perceived risk and supplementary services.     

Managing the risk of loan prepayments and the optimal structure of short term lending rates

Loan pricing is an extremely important aspect of bank operations because loans are typically over two-thirds of bank assets. Many researchers have analyzed the theoretical and empirical impact of how different factors should and do affect fixed rate loan rates and loan prepayments. However, a theoretical decision making model for maximizing expected profit in a declining rate environment has not been developed. After describing the conditions for the optimal loan rate, we develop numerical solutions for it under varying conditions. The varying conditions include the trend in interest rates, volatility of interest rates, and loan maturity. We thank Yen Low and Hamed Bagherpour for their assistance.     

Managing longevity risk under adverse selection: the influence of policyholder age and contract duration

In recent years, the rising life expectancy in almost all industrialized countries has led to an increasing demand by life insurers for possibilities to hedge longevity risk. Two of the most prominent alternative risk management instruments in this regard are the transfer of longevity risk to the capital market, e.g. through the purchase of mortality contingent bonds, and natural hedging, i.e. hedging longevity risk through portfolio composition. In this paper, we study the effectiveness of these risk management instruments under adverse selection, which here refers to the difference between annuitant mortality and the mortality of the population as a whole. Special emphasis is thereby placed on analyzing the impact of policyholders’ age at contract inception and contract duration on the effectiveness of risk management.     

Managing Middlescence

They make up more than half your workforce. They work longer hours than anyone else in your company. From their ranks come most of your top managers. They're your midcareer employees, the solid citizens between the ages of 35 and 55 whom you bank on for their loyalty and commitment. And they're not happy. In fact, they're burned out, bored, and bottlenecked, new research reveals. Only 33% of the 7700 workers the authors surveyed feel energized by their work; 36% say they're in dead-end jobs. One in three is not satisfied with his or her job. One in five is looking for another. Welcome to middlescence. Like adolescence, it can be a time of frustration, confusion, and alienation. But it can also be a time of self-discovery, new direction, and fresh beginnings. Today, millions of midcareer men and women are wrestling with middlescence-looking for ways to balance work, family, and leisure while hoping to find new meaning in theirjobs. The question is, Will they find it in your organization or elsewhere? Companies are ill prepared to manage middlescence because it is so pervasive, largely invisible, and culturally uncharted. That neglect is bad for business: Many companies risk losing some of their best people or-even worse-ending up with an army of disaffected people who stay. The best way to engage middlescents is to tap into their hunger for renewal and help them launch into more meaningful roles. Perhaps managers can't grant a promotion to everyone who merits one in today's flat organizations, but you may be able to offer new training, fresh assignments, mentoring opportunities, even sabbaticals or entirely new career paths within your own company. Millions of midcareer men and women would like nothing better than to convert their restlessness into fresh energy. They just need the occasion-and perhaps a little assistance-to unleash and channel all that potential.     

Managing earnings risk under SFAS 133/IAS 39: the case of cash flow hedges

Whereas empirical studies suggest that firm hedging is influenced by accounting standards such as SFAS 133 and IAS 39, the nature of earnings risk management remains a puzzle. I develop a model that shows how non-financial firms that prefer predictable earnings jointly optimize their hedging strategy and the choice between fair-value and hedge accounting. I also examine the implications of these decisions for earnings predictability under SFAS 133/IAS 39. In this model, which has two accounting periods, earnings uncertainty arises from economic shocks and accounting mismatches. The specific influence of accounting mismatches is isolated with two benchmarks, one for firm hedging (cash flow hedging) and another for an accounting system that fully complies with the matching principle. In this forward-looking analysis, most firms significantly decrease the hedging of long-term earnings when faced with persistent price dynamics. Under non-persistent price dynamics, the levels of long-term earnings hedging are only slightly reduced. Therefore, the influence of accounting mismatches on firm hedging is highly dependent on the economic environment in which a firm operates, which suggests that the potential influence of accounting on firm hedging may be difficult to identify in archival studies. The analysis also offers a forward-looking perspective on the changing properties of earnings since the late 1970s that supplements the existing body of archival accounting studies. For example, under persistent price dynamics, forward-looking short-term earnings volatility may increase tenfold or more for cash flow hedging under fair-value accounting compared with a perfectly matched accounting system.     

Managing for creativity

A company's most important asset isn't raw materials, transportation systems, or political influence. It's creative capital--simply put, an arsenal of creative thinkers whose ideas can be turned into valuable products and services. Creative employees pioneer new technologies, birth new industries, and power economic growth. If you want your company to succeed, these are the people you entrust it to. But how do you accommodate the complex and chaotic nature of the creative process while increasing efficiency, improving quality, and raising productivity? Most businesses haven't figured this out. A notable exception is SAS Institute, the world's largest privately held software company. SAS makes Fortune's 100 Best Companies to Work For list every year. The company has enjoyed low employee turnover, high customer satisfaction, and 28 straight years of revenue growth. What's the secret to all this success? The authors, an academic and a CEO, approach this question differently, but they've come to the same conclusion: SAS has learned how to harness the creative energies of all its stakeholders, including its customers, software developers, managers, and support staff. Its framework for managing creativity rests on three guiding principles. First, help employees do their best work by keeping them intellectually engaged and by removing distractions. Second, make managers responsible for sparking creativity and eliminate arbitrary distinctions between "suits" and "creatives". And third, engage customers as creative partners so you can deliver superior products. Underlying all three principles is a mandate to foster interaction--not just to collect individuals' ideas. By nurturing relationships among developers, salespeople, and customers, SAS is investing in its future creative capital. Within a management framework like SAS's, creativity and productivity flourish, flexibility and profitability go hand in hand, and work/life balance and hard work aren't mutually exclusive.     

Managing by commitments

What makes a great manager great? Despite differences in their personal attributes, successful managers all excel in the making, honoring, and remaking of commitments. Managerial commitments take many forms, from capital investments to personnel decisions to public statements, but each exerts both immediate and enduring influence on a company. A leader's commitments shape a business's identity, define its strengths and weaknesses, establish its opportunities and limitations, and set its direction. Executives can all too easily forget that commitments are extraordinarily powerful. Caught up in the present, managers often take actions that, while beneficial in the near term, impose lasting constraints on their operations and organizations. When market or competitive conditions change, they can find themselves unable to respond effectively. Managers who understand the nature and power of their commitments can wield them more effectively throughout a company's life cycle. Entrepreneurs can avoid taking actions that imprint a new venture with a dysfunctional character. Managers in established enterprises can buttress past commitments that retain their currency and learn to recognize when commitments have become roadblocks to needed changes. The manager can then replace those roadblocks with new, rejuvenating commitments. That doesn't mean you should try to anticipate all the long-run consequences of every commitment--and it certainly doesn't mean you should shy away from making commitments. But it does mean that before making important decisions about, say, operating processes or partnerships, you should always ask yourself: Is this a process or relationship that we can live with in the future? Am I locking us into a course that we'll come to regret?     

Managing global accounts

Global account management--which treats a multinational customer's operations as one integrated account, with coherent terms for pricing, product specifications, and service--has proliferated over the past decade. Yet according to the authors' research, only about a third of the suppliers that have offered GAM are pleased with the results. The unhappy majority may be suffering from confusion about when, how, and to whom to provide it. Yip, the director of research and innovation at Capgemini, and Bink, the head of marketing communications at Uxbridge College, have found that GAM can improve customer satisfaction by 20% or more and can raise both profits and revenues by at least 15% within just a few years of its introduction. They provide guidelines to help companies achieve similar results. The first steps are determining whether your products or services are appropriate for GAM, whether your customers want such a program, whether those customers are crucial to your strategy, and how GAM might affect your competitive advantage. If moving forward makes sense, the authors' exhibit, "A Scorecard for Selecting Global Accounts," can help you target the right customers. The final step is deciding which of three basic forms to offer: coordination GAM (in which national operations remain relatively strong), control GAM (in which the global operation and the national operations are fairly balanced), and separate GAM (in which a new business unit has total responsibility for global accounts). Given the difficulty and expense of providing multiple varieties, the vast majority of companies should initially customize just one---and they should be careful not to start with a choice that is too ambitious for either themselves or their customers to handle.     

Managing multicultural teams

Multicultural teams offer a number of advantages to international firms, including deep knowledge of different product markets, culturally sensitive customer service, and 24-hour work rotations. But those advantages may be outweighed by problems stemming from cultural differences, which can seriously impair the effectiveness of a team or even bring itto a stalemate. How can managers best cope with culture-based challenges? The authors conducted in-depth interviews with managers and members of multicultural teams from all over the world. Drawing on their extensive research on dispute resolution and teamwork and those interviews, they identify four problem categories that can create barriers to a team's success: direct versus indirect communication, trouble with accents and fluency, differing attitudes toward hierarchy and authority, and conflicting norms for decision making. If a manager--or a team member--can pinpoint the root cause of the problem, he or she is likelier to select an appropriate strategy for solving it. The most successful teams and managers, the authors found, dealt with multicultural challenges in one of four ways: adaptation (acknowledging cultural gaps openly and working around them), structural intervention (changing the shape or makeup of the team), managerial intervention (setting norms early or bringing in a higher-level manager), and exit (removing a team member when other options have failed). Which strategy is best depends on the particular circumstances--and each has potential complications. In general, though, managers who intervene early and set norms; teams and managers who try to engage everyone on the team; and teams that can see challenges as stemming from culture, not personality, succeed in solving culture-based problems with good humor and creativity. They are the likeliest to harvest the benefits inherent in multicultural teams.     

Global demographic trends and social security reform

How sustainable are the current social security systems in the developed economies, given the projected demographic trends? The most recent literature has answered this question through dynamic general-equilibrium models in a closed-economy framework. This paper provides a new quantitative benchmark of analysis for this question represented by a two-region model (South and North) of the world economy where capital flows across regions. The timing and the extent of the demographic transition—and the associated economic forces shaping capital accumulation and equilibrium factor prices—are very different in the two regions. Thus, the projected paths of interest rate and wage rate in the North diverge substantially between closed and open economy. We perform a wide range of policy experiments under both scenarios. Our main conclusion is that if one is interested in quantifying the path of the fiscal variables (e.g., the value of the payroll tax) needed to keep the social security system viable or to finance a transition towards a fully funded system, then these two benchmarks yield similar results. However, if the focus is on quantifying the path of factor prices, aggregate variables and, ultimately, welfare, then the two approaches can diverge significantly.     

Managing Employee Compensation Risk

Review of Accounting Studies - We analyze a principal-agent model in which the principal (e.g., shareholders) and the agent (e.g., an employee) can personally trade securities tied to the outcome...