A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

A systematic approach for integrated trend analysis—The case of etching

Understanding technology development trends is of critical importance to countries, industries and enterprises to be sustainable in global competition. Attempts have been made to establish trend analysis by bibliometric and patent analyses. Also text-mining uncovers hidden and important information from structured or unstructured documents which serve as knowledge carriers. This study aims to provide a systematic approach for integrated trend analysis that takes into account bibliometric analysis, patent analysis and text-mining analysis. Etching is selected as the case study for integrating trend analysis method proposed in this study. Also, validity and applicability of the integrated analysis are evaluated.     

3D打印技术的管理特征及企业发展思路

文章依据新兴技术管理理论,以3D打印技术为研究对象,从技术特点和产业特征入手,具体围绕技术科学基础、技术本身、技术市场、商业环节及新兴技术角度这五个重要方面,分析和归纳3D打印技术典型的管理特征,同时应用理论分析和案例分析方法,提出我国企业现阶段发展3D打印技术的思路,主要包括运用现有技术,依托或脱胎高校突破现存“技术簇”,实现领先。同时,实现市场准确定位,精准进入3D打印技术商业环节,最后,3D打印企业走“两手抓”发展思路。本研究对不断探寻管理3D打印技术的规律及促进3D打印技术可持续发展具有重要意义。     

Technological innovation and knowledge network in Asia: Evidence from comparison of information and communication technologies among six countries

South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China and India have become much larger force in the world economy. Due to the enormous contribution of the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in economic growth, this study investigates four main issues related to technological innovation and knowledge network in ICT among six countries. First, indicators of technological innovation were evaluated and used to compare capability of technological innovation in ICT between the six countries. Secondly, differences in innovation configurations among six countries were manifested. Thirdly, relative innovation strengths of these six countries were examined in five sub-technological fields. Finally, this study consists of analyzing the interactions into knowledge network among them; moreover, this study manifests the difference of knowledge network in five sub-technological field of ICT. The empirical findings of this study, based on analysis of a patent and citation dataset comprised of all patents granted by the U.S. Patents and Trademark Office (USPTO) to assignees in six countries from 1976 to 2006, are helpful to understand the comparative development of technological innovation of ICT in six countries.     

Monitoring trends of technological changes based on the dynamic patent lattice: A modified formal concept analysis approach

The strategic importance of monitoring technological changes is highlighted given the ever faster pace and increasing complexity of technological innovation. In this respect, patent citation analysis has been the most frequently adopted tool among others. However, patent citation analysis is subject to certain drawbacks that stem from only consideration of citing-cited information and time lags between citing and cited patents. This study proposes a formal concept analysis (FCA)-based approach to developing a dynamic patent lattice that can analyze complex relations among patents and monitor trends of technological changes. The FCA is a mathematical tool for grouping objects with shared properties based on the lattice theory. The distinct strengths of FCA, vis-á-vis other methods, lie in structuring and displaying the relations among objects from a massive amount of data. For the purpose of technology monitoring, the FCA is modified to take into account time periods and changes of patent keywords. A patent context is first constructed with the aid of domain experts and text mining technique. Two types of dynamic patent lattices are then developed by executing the modified FCA algorithm. A case study of laser technology in lithography for semiconductor manufacturing shows that the suggested dynamic patent lattice has considerable advantages over conventional patent citation maps in terms of visualization and informative power.     

Adoption of safer irrigation technologies and cropping patterns: Evidence from Southern Ghana

The new irrigation technologies introduced in sub-Saharan Africa aim at ensuring safer vegetable production when untreated waste water is used as irrigation water. This paper examines the adoption of safer irrigation technologies and crop choices among vegetable farmers, using cross-section data from urban Kumasi in Ghana. The study employed a two-stage conditional maximum likelihood approach to examine the impact of crop choices and farm-level characteristics on the adoption of safer irrigation technologies. The empirical results indicate that apart from household and farm characteristics such as access to extension agents, belonging to a farmer's organization and education, cropping patterns tend to influence adoption of irrigation technologies for safer vegetable production.     

Quantitative mapping of patented technology — The case of electrical conducting polymer nanocomposite

This study aims to obtain global technology evolution by constructing and analyzing patent citation network and patent citation map for the field of electrical conducting polymer nanocomposite. A total of 1421 patents are retrieved from USPTO patent database and patent citation network is established by combing both patent citation and social network analysis. Network properties, e.g. Degree Centrality, Betweenness Centrality, and Closeness Centrality, are calculated for representing several technology evolution mechanisms that first proposed in this study. Also, a distance-based patent citation map is constructed by calculating relative distances and positions of patents in the patent citation network. Quantitative ways of exploring technology evolution are investigated in this study to unveil important or emerging techniques as well as to demonstrate dynamics and visualization of technology evolutions.     

Business planning based on technological capabilities: Patent analysis for technology-driven roadmapping

This research responds to the needs of technology-driven business by focusing on how firms can find new business opportunities based on their technological capabilities. It proposes a technology-driven roadmapping processes that starts from capability analysis for technology planning and ends with business opportunity analysis for market planning. We suggest the use of patent data as a proxy measure of technological capability for this purpose and develop four analysis modules — Monitoring, Collaboration, Diversification, and Benchmarking — to support decision-making during the process. Various analysis techniques such as text-mining, network analysis, citation analysis and index analysis are applied to discover meaningful implications from the patent data, which are summarized in four maps — Actor-similarity map, Actor-relations map, Technology-industry map, and Technology-affinity map. For the purpose of illustration, RFID-related patents are collected and the 18 firms with the most patents used, focusing especially on the third biggest. We believe using roadmapping and patent analysis together can play complementary roles for each other. Putting roadmapping techniques together with patent analysis can increase the objectivity and reliability of technology roadmap, while using patent analysis restricted to technological information together with roadmapping techniques can ensure that a more valuable breadth of strategic information is extracted from patents.     

Innovation and the competitiveness of industries: Comparing the mainstream and the evolutionary approaches

The study of the relationships between innovation and the competitiveness of industries is an important topic for both, academic research and economic policy. The huge economics literature flourished in the last couple of decades on the subject broadly falls into two distinct research traditions, namely the mainstream R&D spillovers approach and the evolutionary economics view. Both traditions agree on the important role played by innovation and the inter-sectoral diffusion of advanced knowledge for the competitive performance of industrial sectors. Behind this general agreement, however, the two approaches are radically different. This paper shows that, at a deeper level of analysis, the mainstream and evolutionary views do indeed differ with respect to their theoretical foundations, empirical research and policy implications. In a nutshell, while the mainstream R&D spillover approach is inspired by a traditional view of economic policy based on a market-oriented approach, the evolutionary view is on the contrary consistent with the idea that institutional arrangements and policy interventions do indeed play a fundamental role for shaping innovation patterns and their impacts on the competitiveness of industries.     

The development of research and innovation policies based on a benchmarking assessment: the case of mobile communications technology R&D in the new member states of the EU

This paper presents the process and the results that led to an objective assessment of 34 research programmes from 14 countries based on a multifactor analysis. The programmes that were analysed come from the EU's new member states and the accession countries. The methodology used was specially developed for policy development purposes and for the design of the roadmaps leading to an open and successful R&D programme in the area of mobile communications. The method and the results obtained and later used for the policy development and road mapping are discussed. The policies designed and strategic objectives derived are briefly described. The consequences expected to follow the policy implementation in the relevant countries are evaluated and discussed.     

The relationship between a firm's patent quality and its market value — The case of US pharmaceutical industry

This study examined the relationships between corporate market value and four patent quality indicators - relative patent position (RPP), revealed technology advantage (RTA), Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of patents (HHI of patents), and patent citations - in the US pharmaceutical industry. The results showed that RPP and patent citations were positively associated with corporate market value, but HHI of patents was negatively associated with it, while RTA was not significantly related to it. Thus, if pharmaceutical companies want to enhance their market value, they should increase their leading positions in their most important technological fields, cultivate more diversity of technological capabilities, and raise innovative value of their patents. In addition, this study found that market value of pharmaceutical companies with high patent counts was higher than that of pharmaceutical companies with low patent counts, and suggested that pharmaceutical companies with low patent counts should increase RPP in their most technological fields, decrease HHI of patents, or raise patent citations to further enhance their market value. Furthermore, this study developed a classification for the pharmaceutical companies to divide them into four types, and provided some suggestions to them.     

Localized technological change, new information technology and the knowledge-based economy: The European evidence

This work analyzes the co-evolution of new information and communication technologies and the knowledge-intensive business industry. New information technology affects the actual conditions of information, its basic characteristics of appropriation and tradability, favouring the role of business services as forces of interaction between knowledge components in the generation of new technology. Empirical analyses, based on input/output statistics of the European economy in the second half of 1980's, demonstrate the existence of a correlation between the usage of business and communication services and confirm their high output elasticity.     

Emission taxes and the adoption of cleaner technologies: The case of environmentally conscious consumers

We model a market with environmentally conscious consumers and a duopoly in which firms consider the adoption of a clean technology. We show that as pollution increases, consumers shift more resources to the environmental activities, thereby affecting negatively the demand faced by the duopoly. This effect generates incentives for firms to adopt the clean technology even in the absence of emissions taxes. When such taxes are considered, our results indicate that the benefit of adopting the clean technology is initially increasing and then decreasing in the emission tax. The range of values for which the emission tax increases this benefit becomes narrower when the consumers’ environmental awareness is stronger.     

Cross ownership of wireline and wireless communications carriers: synergy or collusion?

This paper examines whether the ‘cross ownership’ of wireline and wireless communications carriers is socially beneficial or harmful, and therefore should be allowed or regulated. We analyze a generic model of cross ownership of the firms which produce different but inter-related services. We show that, first, if both of the wireline and wireless industries are monopolistic, cross ownership results in social gains when the two services are complements, and social losses when they are substitutes. Secondly, if the wireless industry is sufficiently competitive, there’s little or no welfare loss from cross ownership. Finally, we briefly address the effect of network externality on the welfare consequences of cross ownership.     

Trajectory patterns of technology fusion: Trend analysis and taxonomical grouping in nanobiotechnology

The potential of technology fusion has been advanced as a promising breakthrough function to create hybrid technologies. Despite its importance, however, the evolutionary path of technology fusion is yet unexplored. In this paper, by employing the case of nanobiotechnology, we attempt to deepen understanding of the development trajectories of technology fusion in three important aspects. The first aspect is the development of an index that measures the degree of fusion of cross-disciplinary technology at the meso level. The second aspect is to classify the trajectory patterns of technology fusion in terms of fusion degree. We analyze fusion mechanism by utilizing citation network analysis. The third aspect is to visualize the relationship between patents and their backward and forward patent citations, at the patent class level, with their direction on a citation map. This facilitates understanding of the overview as well as fusion patterns. The changes in fusion patterns are analyzed using time series comparisons. An empirical analysis in the nanobiotechnology field shows no positive relationship between the inflow and outflow degree of fusion. We also observe changes in the trajectory patterns of fusion over time. Analysis demonstrates that each fusion pattern has evolved in such a way that technologies focus more on their niche technologies, and that those technologies which cannot incorporate the technology fusion have been eliminated during the development process.     

The typology of technology clusters and its evolution — Evidence from the hi-tech industries

Clustering is one of the key drivers for regional economic growth. Development of clusters is a dynamic process shaped by a variety of internal and external factors such as availability of skilled labor, presence of functioning networks and partnerships, technological changes, and market competition, etc. As a result, the patterns of cluster growth may differ from one another. Although each cluster is unique in some way, previous research has attempted to identify few simplified models of evolution of clusters. In this study, we briefly reviewed the literature on a variety of models of clusters. Based on these models, we investigated 15 hi-performing metropolitan-based clusters in the United States, covering communications equipment manufacturing, information technology, and biopharmaceutical industries, in order to find out the similarities and differences between real-world clusters. Specifically, by examining the composition of these high-tech clusters, we attempted to find out the following: 1) What are the typologies of these technology clusters? 2) Whether different industries tend to support different cluster typologies? and 3) How do clusters change their typologies over time? Our analysis results suggest that the real-world clusters rarely feature any single type of typology; a mixed type of typology is much more prevalent in reality.We also found that different industries tend to support different types of cluster typologies. In other words, an individual cluster's typology is to some extent shaped by the industry group it belongs to. In addition, we note that, as a cluster goes through different stages of its lifecycle, its typology may change significantly.     

科技管理体制改革初探

在国家实力越来越取决于科技竞争的时代,为了提升国家竞争力,当今世界各国都在努力构建国家创新体系,科技管理体制作为国家科技创新体系的基础,对于促进科技事业的快速发展起着决定性的作用。然而,目前我国科技管理体制存在的问题比较突出,明显制约着国家科技创新目标的实现。如何改革我国科技管理体制,建设良好学术环境,已成为摆在我们面前亟待解决的理论与实际问题。本文建议采取以下措施来改革当期的科技管理体制,促进创新型国家建设：（1）建立以企业为主体的科技创新支持体系。（2）变委员会评审制度为专家评审制度;（3）变由权威专家评审为有时间评审的专家评审;（4）评审结果和评审内容应当一并公开;（5）变以论文成果为主为以应用成果为主;（6）变专家评价科研成果为公开采购科研成果;（7）政府资助的重大科技项目应当实行并行立项制度;（8）变无偿资助科研成果转化为政府采购科研成果转化的结果。     

运用高新技术改造我国传统农业的技术路线选择

本文以我国农业的现状为依据，讨论了运用高新技术改造我国传统农业的技术路线是以生物技术和有机技术为导向、以工程技术为辅的综合型农业技术路线。并提出了在农村推广过程中应注意的问题和未来发展目标模式。     

The economic contribution of information technology: Towards comparative and user studies

By what process does technical change in information technology (IT) increase economic welfare? How does this process result in increases in welfare at different rates in different countries and regions? This paper considers existing literature on measuring the economic benefits from information technology, emphasizing comparative issues and user studies. Following Bresnahan and Trajtenberg (1995), we call the invention associated with customizing the technological frontier to the unique needs of users in particular regions “co-invention”, placing emphasis on understanding how its determinants vary across users in different regions. We develop a framework for understanding the processes behind value-creation, demand-side heterogeneity and co-inventive activity. Then we discuss why these processes make measuring the welfare benefits from advances in information technology particularly difficult. We highlight the metrics currently available for measuring the economic pay-out of the IT revolution and identify which of these vary meaningfully in a comparative regional context. Finally, we finish with observations about further areas of research.     

A new definition and framework for the development of a national technology strategy: The case of nanotechnology for Iran

In this research, we use the concepts of “national technology policy” as well as the “firm technology strategy” in defining a new definition for “national technology strategy”. Then, by examining several national technology strategies in a variety of fields in different countries the national nanotechnology strategy for Iran is developed. Furthermore, using capability-effectiveness matrix and SWOT analysis we identify strategies of nanotechnology development in Iran. Finally, considering other countries' strategies and the results of PROMETHEE Method, we prioritize different areas of nanotechnology for Iranian economy, and test for the validity of the extracted strategies.