Ex post tests for short-and long-run optimization

The purpose of this paper is to develop tests of long-run equilibrium models where the long-run is defined as the state where the observed levels of output and capital are consistent with optimizing behavior. We use the implied relationship between a restricted translog cost function and derived demand equations to provide a series of nested tests which can be interpreted as ex post tests for short- and long-run optimization behavior. A set of parameter restrictions on the translog system are specified for testing whether observable levels of capital and/or output of a firm correspond to the long-run optimal level. Our tests of the validity of long-run equilibrium specifications are based on data for 28 German industries for the period 1960-1981. For most of the industries the set of restrictions implied by long-run equilibrium had to be rejected.     

Market selection with an endogenous state

This paper explores market selection in general equilibrium when the state of the economy is endogenous. Analysis of consumer survival in this case requires solution of the model’s dynamics, for which evolutionary game theory can be useful; for instance, if the state and beliefs are Markovian and utility logarithmic, then the dynamics of consumption shares are described by the replicator dynamics. This is illustrated in a simple exchange economy, and in a standard monetary economy with multiple long-run equilibria where a plausible form of inflation targeting serves to destabilize a liquidity trap in favor of the target equilibrium.     

Agglomeration and competition

This paper presents and examines a simple Weberian model of location under conditions of imperfect competition. Given the number of homogeneous Cournot entrants, conditions are shown under which the firm may move toward the market site or to an input site. Demonstrated also is how output may be increased or decreased correspondingly. In any case, insofar as profit remains to be positive, new entry is kept attracted. The paper shows how in the process locational choice along with output may fluctuate as entry continues over time until a long-run non-negative/minimum profit equilibrium obtains.     

Re-opening after the lockdown: Long-run aggregate and distributional consequences of COVID-19

Covid-19 has dealt a devastating blow to productivity and economic growth. We employ a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous agents to identify the tradeoffs involved in restoring the economy to its pre-Covid-19 state. Several tradeoffs, both over time, and between key economic variables, are identified, with the feasible speed of successful re-opening being constrained by the transmission of the infection. In particular, while more rapid opening up of the economy will reduce short-run aggregate output losses, it will cause larger long-run output losses, which potentially may be quite substantial if the opening is overly rapid and the virus is not eradicated. More rapid opening of the economy mitigates the increases in both long-run wealth and income inequality, thus highlighting a direct conflict between the adverse effects on aggregate output and its distributional consequences.     

Infrastructure-production system dynamics in national and regional systems: An econometric study of the Indian economy

Treating infrastructure inputs as quasi-fixed in the short run, a multi-equation econometric model of production-infrastructure (social overhead capital) interlinkages and adjustments is developed based on a flexible functional form. Adjustment dynamics are endogenized and costs of adjustments are explicitly incorporated. The model is estimated with regional and national data from India; results include optimal paths and speeds of adjustments for infrastructure inputs market inputs' own and cross-price elasticities and demand elasticities with respect to the level of output, infrastructure stocks and associated user costs; and production cost elasticities with respect to output and infrastructure stocks.     

Oil exports and the Iranian economy

This paper presents an error-correcting macroeconometric model for the Iranian economy estimated using a new quarterly data set over the period 1979Q1–2006Q4. It builds on a recent paper by the authors, Esfahani, Mohaddes, and Pesaran (in press), which develops a theoretical long-run growth model for major oil exporting economies. The core variables included in this paper are real output, real money balances, inflation, exchange rate, oil exports, and foreign real output, although the role of investment and consumption are also analysed in a sub-model. The paper finds clear evidence for the existence of two long-run relations: an output equation as predicted by the theory and a standard real money demand equation with inflation acting as a proxy for the (missing) market interest rate. The results show that real output in the long run is influenced by oil exports and foreign output. However, it is also found that inflation has a significant negative long-run effect on real GDP, which is suggestive of economic inefficiencies and is matched by a negative association between inflation and the investment–output ratio. Finally, the results of impulse responses show that the Iranian economy adjusts quite quickly to the shocks in foreign output and oil exports, which could be partly due to the relatively underdeveloped nature of Iran's financial markets.     

中国股市财富效应静态和动态实证分析

本文利用2002—2008年的月度数据,利用协整分析、误差修正模型等现代计量经济方法和状态空间模型研究了中国股市财富效应问题。研究结果认为:从长期均衡关系看,我国股市财富效应是显著存在;从短期动态关系看,我国股市财富波动对全社会消费支出波动具有负影响但不显著;从股市财富的边际消费倾向的动态过程看,我国股市财富效应始终存在,但挤出效应同样显著。     

Capital market equilibrium with moral hazard and flexible technology

(Magill, M., Quinzii, M., 2002. Capital market equilibrium with moral hazard. Journal of Mathematical Economics 38, 149–190) showed that, in a stockmarket economy with private information, the moral hazard problem may be resolved provided that a spanning overlap condition is satisfed. This result depends on the assumption that the technology is given by a stochastic production function with a single scalar input. The object of the present paper is to extend the analysis of Magill and Quinzii to the case of multiple inputs. We show that their main result extends to this general case if and only if, for each firm, the number of linearly independent combinations of securities having payoffs correlated with, but not dependent on, the firms output is equal to the number of degrees of freedom in the firm’s production technology.     

The economics of retail firms

This paper identifies retail firms as an economic institution which delivers explicit products or services to consumer together with a variety of distribution services that determine the levels of distribution costs experienced by consumers in their purchase activities. The demand for the retailer's product is derived from a household production model in which the levels of distribution services provided by the retailer play the role of fixed inputs in the household's production functions. The supply of the retailer's product is derived from a joint cost function which is non-decreasing in the levels of distribution services provided. Profit-maximizing behavior in monopolistically competive markets shows that retail firms have special economic incentives to become complex organizations by integrating backwards, offering multiple explicit products and operating in more than one market. In addition, monopolistically competitive retail firms in long-run equilibrium will exhibit excess capacity, price dispersion and product choice in distribution services.     

Long-run Causality, with an Application to International Links Between Long-term Interest Rates

In this paper we give a precise definition of long-run causality in a multivariate non-stationary, possibly cointegrated, framework. A variable is said to be causal for another in the long-run if knowledge of the past of the former improves long-run predictions of the latter. In a VAR framework, we show that long-run non-causality can be easily tested with a Wald statistics, conditionally on the cointegration rank. The methodology is used to study long-run causal links between US, German, and French long-term interest rates from January 1990 to June 1997.     

Rumours and markets

The paper presents a simple model to study the effects of rumours on markets. Agents in our economy communicate with their local neighbours which gives rise to the possible spread of a rumour. As the rumour affects beliefs of the agents the evolution of the rumour has a direct impact on market outcomes. Our results show that if the rumour dies out long-run equilibrium prices correspond to pre-rumour values. However, if the rumour stays present it produces a price run-up for the good that is positively targeted by the rumour. Price run-ups related to rumours have been observed in empirical studies by Rose [Rose, A.M., 1951. Rumor in the stock market. Public Opinion Quarterly 15, 461–486], Pound and Zeckhauser [Pound, J., Zeckhauser, R., 1990. Clearly heard on the street: the effect of takeover rumors on stock prices. Journal of Business 63, 291–308] and Zivney et al. [Zivney, T., Bertin, W.J., Torabzadeh, K.M., 1996. Overreaction to take-over speculation. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 36, 89–115]. The present model provides an analytical foundation for this finding.     

Econometric estimation of distance functions and associated measures of productivity and efficiency change

Multi-input multi-output production technologies can be represented using distance functions. Econometric estimation of these functions typically involves factoring out one of the outputs or inputs and estimating the resulting equation using maximum likelihood methods. A problem with this approach is that the outputs or inputs that are not factored out may be correlated with the composite error term. Fernandez et al. (J Econ 98:47–79, 2000) show how to solve this so-called ‘endogeneity problem’ using Bayesian methods. In this paper I use the approach to estimate an output distance function and an associated index of total factor productivity (TFP) change. The TFP index is a new index that satisfies most, if not all, economically-relevant axioms from index number theory. It can also be exhaustively decomposed into a measure of technical change and various measures of efficiency change. I illustrate the methodology using state-level data on U.S. agricultural input and output quantities (no prices are needed). Results are summarized in terms of the characteristics (e.g., means) of estimated probability density functions for measures of TFP change, technical change and efficiency change.     

Transport costs, intermediate goods, and localized growth

This paper presents a dynamic, two-regional, general equilibrium model in which interregional production and trade patterns are endogenously determined. Localized growth stems from the geographical concentration of an industrial sector exhibiting permanent productivity increases. Geographical concentration is a result of the interaction between local market size and local competition in the differentiated input industry. Regional factor endowment with an immobile factor is decisive for the long-run specialization, trade and growth patterns between the regions if large endowment differences prevail. With equal-sized regions, multiple equilibria exist. Furthermore, we argue that integration might lead to increasing regional concentration of production and innovation.     

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS: SURVEY AND SYNTHESIS

Abstract.  This paper reviews the empirical literature on foreign exchange rate expectations. Prominent issues are the forward premium puzzle, expectations formation in financial markets, heterogeneity of expectations, market microstructure, time-varying risk premiums and forecast performance. Although much has been learned in each field, this survey highlights the areas of research in which our understanding of the mechanism of exchange rate expectations is still incomplete. Our survey suggests that both irrational expectations and time-varying risk premiums account for the forward discount anomaly, that long-term expectations reverse towards their long-run equilibrium values and that heterogeneous behaviour of market participants has the potential of explaining some of the empirical regularities in the international finance literature.     

Tests on the validity of static equilibrium models

This paper provides a framework to test the validity of static cost minimizing equilibrium assumptions that form the basis for much of the empirical literature on industrial production. The point of departure in our model is to allow the observed technology to be at a short-run equilibrium where firms minimize variable costs while being constrained by the utilization levels of quasi-fixed factors. The long-run equilibrium is then inferred by minimizing total costs with the optimal adjustment of quasi-fixed factor levels.We use results from the optimization problem to form tests with respect to quantities and prices. In the quantity space version, departures between the actual and the optimal long-run levels of quasi-fixed factors are tested for statistical significance. A significant non-zero departure implies the rejection of a static equilibrium specification. In the price space version, the test is cast as a comparison of the market price and the long-run shadow value of a quasi-fixed factor. Although the two versions would give identical results in the non-stochastic case, the rejection powers of these two tests are found to depend on the particular functional form chosen to represent the production process (i.e. cost function).In an application based on aggregate U.S. manufacturing where capital is taken to be quasi-fixed, we were able to reject the static equilibrium specification. These results cast doubt on the validity of a number of previous empirical studies.     

Asymmetric convergence in US financial credit default swap sector index markets

This study examines the asymmetric adjustments to the long-run equilibrium for credit default swap (CDS) sector indexes of three financial sectors – banking, financial services and insurance – in the presence of a threshold effect. The results of the momentum-threshold autoregression (M-TAR) models demonstrate that asymmetric cointegration exists for all pairs comprised of those three CDS indexes. The speeds of adjustment in the long-run are much higher in the case of adjustments from below the threshold than from above for all the pairs. The estimates of The MTAR-VEC models suggest that the dual CDS index return in each sector pair participates in the adjustment to equilibrium in the short- and long-run taken together. But in the long-run alone, only one of the two spreads in each pair participates. Policy implications are also provided.     

The effects of uncertainty on investment and the expected long-run capital stock

This paper examines the effects of output price uncertainty on the optimal investment behavior of a risk-neutral competitive firm with a constant returns to scale production function. In the presence of convex costs of adjustment, investment is an increasing function of q, the shadow price of capital. Given the current price of output, we find that increased uncertainty will raise the current rate of investment. Increased uncertainty will also increase the expected long-run capital stock if the price of output is serially uncorrelated. However, if the price of output is serially correlated, then the direction of the effect of increased uncertainty on the expected long-run capital stock depends on the curvature of the marginal adjustment cost function. In this case, we obtain results which are directly opposite of the results in the literature and we locate the flaw in the existing analysis.     

Exploring the nexus between tourism,remittances and growth in Kenya

Recently there has been a surge in remittances inflow to Kenya while tourism receipts appears to be declining, albeit gradually. In light of these developments, the paper explores the plausible effects of tourism and remittances on per worker output. We use the annual data over 1978–2010 periods and the ARDL bounds approach within the augmented (Solow in Q J Econ 70:65–94, 1956) framework. The regression results show that tourism has a marginal net negative effect in the short-run however positive effect in the long-run. Remittances, on the other hand, have a net positive effect in short-run and negative effect in the long-run. The key results from the Toda–Yamamoto Granger non-causality (Toda and Yamamoto in J Econom 66:225–250, 1995) results show a unidirectional causation from remittances to output per worker; and from output per worker to tourism. A unidirectional ‘combined effect’ of all variables causing output and remittances, respectively are evident as well. Conclusively, tourism is one of the leading drivers of Kenyan economy. To boost gains from tourism, the sector needs to align policies to the Kenya 2030 strategic framework with significant focus on expanding markets, boosting investment, and growth. Remittances market need to be further developed strategically with the view to improving Kenyan migrant led growth initiatives with plausible links to tourism development.     

Cointegration of U.S. budget and current account deficits: Twins or strangers?

In this paper the authors employ the cointegration approach to explore empirically the existence of a possible long-run equilibrium relationship between the U.S. budget deficits and the current account deficits. This study uses annual nominal data in levels for the postwar period 1946–1988. Both the DW and the ADF tests confirm that the two deficits are not cointegrated. It implies that the two deficits have no possibility of reverting to a long-run equilibrium relation.     

DEVELOPMENT OF REGIONAL SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRICES WITH DETAILED AGRICULTURAL LAND RENT DATA AND IMPROVED VALUE-ADDED COMPONENTS FOR THE USA

We describe a method for creating social accounting matrices (SAMs) with detailed agricultural land rent data for any arbitrary subset of the 48 contiguous states in the USA. Data on land use and land rents from various public sources is merged with national accounts data. The method reorganizes the rental income of persons concept present in national accounts to payments to conventional primary factors of production. This method also reallocates portions of the indirect business tax account to the appropriate sales and import tax accounts. SAMs created using this method should be useful inputs into input–output or computable general equilibrium models explicitly representing a heterogeneous land market and analyzing the economic effects of agricultural, bioenergy, water and climate policies on land-use change, land rents, agricultural commodity markets, trade and households’ welfare. The method's implementation is freely available, enabling others to rapidly create SAMs with their own desired region and sector aggregations.