比特币：互联网金融的“乌托邦”

随着比特币的传播范围渐广,越来越多的人开始将目光投向比特币。世界首台比特币自动提款机在加拿大启用,更使人感到其离我们的生活越来越近。2009年比特币问世,用任何一台电脑“挖矿”很容易就能获得50个比特币,1美元大约可以购买1300个比特币。但是到了今年4月份,比特币价格从13美元飙升至250美元。     

新型虚拟货币比特币的发展现状及其对现实经济和金融影响的研究

今年以来,全世界升值最快的货币不是任何国家的主权货币,而是一种被称为"比特币"的虚拟货币。2013年1月2日,1比特币的价值为13.16美元,2013年2月28日,比特币交易价格突破32美元;3月29日,比特币交易价格达到92美元;4月1日,比特币的交易价格冲破100美元;4月10日,比特币的交易价格一度达到历史最高点266美元,创下新高之后数小时又暴跌60%跌到105美元,此后曾反弹到175美元附近企稳。后续几日,比特币又继续振荡。截止4月16日,其交易价格回落至76美元。数据显示,近三年来,比特币已成为增速最快的虚拟货     

一枚比特币的正反面

比特币产生于2009年,疯狂于2013年。有人期待比特币成为优于现行信用货币的新型货币,导致了人们强烈的投机行为。比特币从2010年6月的1比特币兑换0.008美元蹿涨到2013年11月29的1242美元,吸引了全世界的关注。不管人们对它的看法是贬是褒,追逐它的人依然趋之若鹜。本文将简要介绍比特币的内容,从中分析比特币异军突起的原因与缺陷,最后还是要辩证的看待这场历史奇迹。     

一枚比特币的正反面

比特币产生于2009年,疯狂于2013年。有人期待比特币成为优于现行信用货币的新型货币,导致了人们强烈的投机行为。比特币从2010年6月的1比特币兑换0.008美元蹿涨到2013年11月29的1242美元,吸引了全世界的关注。不管人们对它的看法是贬是褒,追逐它的人依然趋之若鹜。本文将简要介绍比特币的内容,从中分析比特币异军突起的原因与缺陷,最后还是要辩证的看待这场历史奇迹。     

比特币特性与发展前景

于2017年8月17号比特币的价格突破3万元,创出了历史新高。比特币从最初创立开始,被人们不断地质疑,到现在市值达到500亿美元左右,我们需要反思其背后的逻辑,重新认识它,理解它与现实经济活动之间的互相影响的关系,比特币的发展前景如何是值得深思的问题。     

三大利好驱动比特币大涨魔咒再现

2016年5月28日,沉寂两年的比特币突然爆发,中国地区的价格率先突破500美元,次日飙升至599美元,随后继续保持上扬态势。火币网数据显示,截止6月12日收盘,比特币盘中现货价格最高达到699.97美元/个,人民币为4465元/个（美元现货收盘价645.2美元/个,人民币为4408元/个）。而此前,比特币币值一直稳定在350美元至450美元之间。这让不少人发出惊叹之声,疯狂的比特币是不是又回来了？从横空出世到渐入佳境,从默默无闻到妇孺皆知,比特币一路走来,是什么在驱动其价格的波动？     

比特币的价格形成机制研究

比特币从2009年诞生时的一文不值,到2017年7月初已经超过4200美元,引起了世界各国的极大关注。那么比特币的价格是怎样形成的呢?许多学者认为比特币的价格飙升是由其投机性需求引起的,而本文将比特币视为一种特殊商品,并从商品的生产和流通成本角度,通过回归分析,得出比特币的价格上涨主要是其成本的急速上升造成的。     

中美比特币监管比较初探

从2009年比特币正式以0.10美元的价格正式上线,到如今价格突破60000美元,比特币价格水涨船高的同时带来了极大的投资、网络安全、洗钱和恐怖融资风险.中国和美国对比特币均有不同程度的监管,在借鉴美国监管措施的基础之上,中国应该从交易平台、打击力度、监管机制等几个方面加强对比特币的管理.     

小心你的钱包:黑市青睐比特币

正比特币因其特有的虚拟性和流通价值,备受黑客青睐。比特币在网络上不仅容易被偷,还可以当洗钱的工具,威胁着持币人和交易平台的资金安全,情况不容乐观。自比特币这个虚拟货币在2009年流通以来,罪犯已经偷走了价值约5亿美元的比特币。相比之下,全球最大的比特币交易平台——Mt.Gox,也只有10亿美元的交易金额。安全专家认为,网络罪犯之所以将黑手伸向比特币,是因为偷比特币比偷真实的现金简单,而且也更容易与其他犯罪分子进行交易。但是,专家相信比特币会在这场危机中存活。     

基于比特币现象的金融风险探析

2008年以来,源自美国的金融危机已经演变为世界金融危机,形成全球性的心理恐慌.在此同时,有很多的学者、政治家和实业界人士认识到当今的国际货币体系,实质上是各国法定货币的集合体,美元作为中心法币,扮演了法币的法币角色,美元对世界货币体系的衰变以及国际金融危机的责任也最大.在现在的金融体系下,各国政府应对金融危机的手段一般也只能采取量化宽松货币供给政策,扩大政府投资刺激政策等,这又必然推动了新的通胀产生.正是在这样的历史时点上,一篇署名叫中本聪关于比特币的研究报告发表,提供了克服法币先天缺陷的一种新的思路,并随之掀起在全球范围内采掘比特币、炒作比特币的轩然大波.在文中,作者分析了比特币的特点,存在价值,并提示了比特币仍存在着巨大金融风险.     

Is Bitcoin a better portfolio diversifier than gold? A copula and sectoral analysis for China

This paper aims to compare Bitcoin with gold in the diversification of Chinese portfolios using daily data over the 2010–2020 period. We propose a new development of copula-based joint distribution function of returns to simulate the Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall of portfolios including Bitcoin (or gold) and those without it. The stochastic dominance method is also used to compare the return distributions of the three types of portfolios. Empirical results show that gold is a better portfolio diversifier than Bitcoin as it helps better reduce the risk of portfolios. On the other hand, Bitcoin better increases the return but also increases the risk. The stochastic dominance results further show that portfolios diversified by gold dominate those diversified by Bitcoin. Based on these findings, we conclude that in China, gold is a better portfolio diversifier than Bitcoin for risk-averse investors. However, for risk-seeking investors, Bitcoin can be a better choice. This result is found to be robust to the time, frequency and currency effects.     

On the stability of stablecoins

This paper investigates the volatility processes of stablecoins and their potential stochastic interdependencies with Bitcoin volatility. We employ a novel approach to choose the optimal combination for the power law exponent and the minimum value for the volatilities bending the power law. Our results indicate that Bitcoin volatility is well-behaved in a statistical sense with a finite theoretical variance. Surprisingly, the volatilities of stablecoins are statistically unstable and contemporaneously respond to Bitcoin volatility. Also, whereas the volatilities of stablecoins are not Granger-causal for Bitcoin volatility, lagged Bitcoin volatility exhibits Granger-causal effects on the volatilities of stablecoins. We conclude that Bitcoin volatility is a fundamental factor that drives the volatilities of stablecoins.     

Price dynamics and speculative trading in bitcoin

Few innovations in the money markets have brought more attention by regulators and policy makers than the digital currency Bitcoin. However, few studies in the literature have examined the price dynamics of Bitcoin. Besides providing an exploratory glace at the value and volatility of the Bitcoin across time, we also test whether the unusual level of Bitcoin’s volatility is attributable to speculative trading. Results in this study do not find that, during 2013, speculative trading contributed to the unprecedented rise and subsequent crash in Bitcoin’s value nor do we find that speculative trading is directly associated with Bitcoin’s unusual level of volatility.     

Capture the contagion network of bitcoin – Evidence from pre and mid COVID-19

COVID-19 is the first global scale crisis since the inception of Bitcoin. We compare the contagion phenomenon of Bitcoin and other financial markets or assets pre and during the COVID-19 shock in both contemporaneous and non-contemporaneous manner. This paper uses the directed acyclic graph (DAG), spillover index, and network topology to provide strong evidence on the directional contagion outcomes of Bitcoin and other assets. The empirical results show that the contagion effect between Bitcoin and developed markets is strengthened during the COVID-19 crisis. Particularly, European market has a dominant role. Excluding Bitcoin’s own shocks, United State and European markets are the main contagion sources to Bitcoin. European market also works as a intermediary to deliver infectious from United State and market fear. The findings show that gold always has contagion effect with Bitcoin, while gold, US dollar and bond market are the contagion receivers of Bitcoin under the shock of COVID-19. The empirical results further proved the safe haven, hedge and diversifier potential of Bitcoin in economic stable time, but also shows that the sustainability of these properties is undermined during the market turmoil.     

A time–frequency comovement and causality relationship between Bitcoin hashrate and energy commodity markets

This study examines time–frequency relationship between Bitcoin prices and Bitcoin mining based on daily data from January 2013 to October 2018. Bitcoin mining is measured through Bitcoin hashrate, which represents the completion speed of the Bitcoin code. We also include three energy commodities, i.e. oil, coal, and gas in a multivariate model employing time–frequency wavelet extensions in the form of partial and multivariate models. Results of our study suggest that both oil and gas lead Bitcoin returns from mid 2014 till 2016 across 64– 128 days' period. Under the investment period of 64– 256, hashrate and Bitcoin returns share significant comovement in the presence of oil and natural gas however exhibit no comovement when the effect of coal market is considered. Our results of wavelet decomposition suggest that the magnitude of comovement ranging from short- to long-run is time varying. Finally, results of the causality on quantile test suggest that Bitcoin returns cause changes in Bitcoin hashrate mostly during median quantiles with an asymmetric pattern. Our work entail implications for investors in the Bitcoin and energy market and is also helpful in forecasting the pricing behavior of Bitcoin using the hashrate and vice versa.     

Estimating the reaction of Bitcoin prices to the uncertainty of fiat currency

Recent studies have found that investors move from fiat currencies to Bitcoin cryptocurrency in environments with low trust and high uncertainty. This paper investigates the reaction of Bitcoin prices to uncertainty concerning fiat currencies by introducing a complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN)-based event analysis approach. The 2013 Cyprus bailout is used as an event over the uncertainty of fiat currencies. With the proposed approach, the original Bitcoin price series is decomposed into high-frequency, low-frequency, and trend components, thus disentangling the short-, medium-, and long-term effects of the events on Bitcoin prices, respectively. We find that the low-frequency component is dominant and increased because of the event. In addition, the announcement significantly increased the intensity of short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. However, there was no structural change in Bitcoin prices in the long-term trend. This paper provides a way to show the reaction of Bitcoin prices to the uncertainty of fiat currencies at different time scales and suggests that the reaction is mainly captured by the medium-term trend.     

Bitcoin as a Complement to Emerging Market Currencies

Bitcoin is a digital currency that has gained significant traction as an economic instrument. Despite its rise, it has received little attention from the scholarly community. This study is one of the first studies to examine Bitcoin’s use as a complement to emerging markets currencies; more specifically, I analyze the value and volatility of Bitcoin relative to emerging market currencies and explore ways in which Bitcoin can complement emerging market currencies. The results suggest that Bitcoin has characteristics that make it well-suited to work as a complement to emerging market currencies and that there are ways to minimize Bitcoin’s risks.     

Who buys Bitcoin? The cultural determinants of Bitcoin activity

We examine the relationship between national culture and a country's Bitcoin activity. Given that Bitcoin is a high-risk currency/investment that is frequently used for illegal purposes and whose market is relatively opaque, we focus on the cultural dimension of individualism, which has been related to financial market participation, risk-taking behavior, and overconfidence. Using unique data that includes the originating country for Bitcoin transactions, we examine the relationship between individualism and a country's Bitcoin activity for a sample of 80 countries between 2009 and 2020. We find a significant and positive relationship between a country's individualism and its use of Bitcoin consistent with cultural values affecting the demand for such high-risk currency/investments.     

Does Bitcoin behave as a currency?: A standard monetary model approach

We derive the Bitcoin exchange rate dynamics by solving the exchange rate equation of the standard flexible-price monetary model to investigate any characteristics of Bitcoin like a currency. The dynamics is driven by an asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental shock which can be attributed to a money demand shock. A crash occurs when the exchange rate with a weakened mean-reverting force breaches a lower boundary where a smooth-pasting condition is imposed. The empirical results show the exchange rate dynamics can be calibrated according to the model, in which the mean reversion of the dynamics is positively co-integrated with the Bitcoin transaction volume indicating demand for Bitcoin; and with the risk reversals of the commodity currencies (Australian dollar and Canadian dollar) in currency option markets. The analysis shows that the Bitcoin exchange rate shares some characteristics of commodity currencies with crash risk. This suggests that Bitcoin behaves as a currency between fiat money and a crypto-commodity used for trading and investment purposes.     

News sentiment in the cryptocurrency market: An empirical comparison with Forex

We use high frequency intra-day data to investigate the influence of unscheduled currency and Bitcoin news on the returns, volume and volatility of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and traditional currencies over the period from January 2012 to November 2018. Results show that Bitcoin behaves differently to traditional currencies. Traditional currencies typically experience a decrease in returns after negative news arrivals and an increase in returns following positive news whereas Bitcoin reacts positively to both positive and negative news. This suggests investor enthusiasm for Bitcoin irrespective of the sentiment of the news. This phenomenon is exacerbated during bubble periods. Conversely, cryptocurrency cyber-attack news and fraud news dampen this effect, decreasing Bitcoin returns and volatility. Our results contribute to the discussion on the nature of Bitcoin as a currency or an asset. They further inform practitioners about the characteristics of cryptocurrencies as a financial asset and inform regulators about the influence of news on Bitcoin volatility, particularly during bubble periods.