畜牧业高质量发展：水平测度、区域差异及收敛性分析

目的 测度畜牧业高质量发展水平并明确其区域差异和空间收敛状况,对中国畜牧业高质量发展具有指导意义。方法 文章基于畜牧业高质量发展评价指标体系和中国2009—2020年30个省（市、区,不含港澳台、西藏）面板数据测度畜牧业高质量发展水平,运用泰尔指数和空间计量模型分析其区域差异和收敛性。结果 （1）2009—2020年中国畜牧业高质量发展水平显著提高,指数由0.354上升到0.416。（2）畜牧业高质量发展水平区域差异主要来源于区域内差异,但区域内差异逐渐缩小,区域间差异逐渐扩大。（3）各区域畜牧业高质量发展水平均呈α收敛演变,同时存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛趋势,落后省域对领先省域的追赶趋势明显。（4）全国及各区域畜牧业高质量发展水平与政府投资、饲料资源显著正相关,牧区发展水平还与产业结构相关,城郊农牧结合区发展水平与产业结构、科技发展正相关。结论 建议加强畜禽养殖绿色技术创新、因地制宜采取行动、优化政策环境以促进畜牧业高质量发展。     

中国土地市场化程度非均衡发展及收敛性研究

目的 基于土地交易微观数据,测度2004—2017年我国不同区域和不同地类土地市场化程度及其差异性。方法 文章运用δ收敛和β收敛对其进行收敛性检验。结果 全国土地市场化程度处于中等水平,以2010年为界限呈现倒“U”型趋势;不同区域的演变趋势与全国基本一致,但区域间差异明显,中部地区最高,东部次之,东北和西部低于全国平均水平;分地类来看,商服用地市场化程度整体平稳上升,工矿仓储用地在2006—2008年上升迅速,住宅用地在2010年以后呈下降趋势;从空间分布来看,全国土地市场化程度由西到东递增,但区域间和地类间的土地市场化程度存在非均衡发展;从收敛趋势来看,东部、东北和中部地区土地市场化程度只存在条件β收敛,西部地区3种收敛均存在;住宅用地和商服用地存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,工矿仓储用地3种收敛都存在。结论 对不同区域与不同地类土地市场化程度非均衡发展趋势及其收敛性的认识,可为深化土地要素市场化配置提供依据。     

中国农业环境全要素生产率动态演进及收敛性分析

目的 厘清农业环境全要素生产率现状是探索农业绿色发展路径的逻辑起点。文章对农业环境TFP测算体系做了进一步的解构与改进,并分析其动态演进及收敛性。方法 利用基于SBM-DEA模型的GML指数,测度了1995—2018年中国30个省（市、区,不含港澳台、西藏）的农业环境TFP,在此基础上运用经济增长收敛理论探讨其收敛性。结果 中国农业环境TFP与农业生产总值变动态势基本吻合,两者的增长速率均在2010年达到峰值,此后农业环境TFP增长速率超过农业生产总值,成为推动农业高质量发展的重要力量;中国农业环境TFP的年均增长率为3.13%,增长率自东部、西部、中部、东北部依次递减;全国及四大区域的技术效率均呈现出不同程度的衰退迹象,其中东北部最为明显;全国及四大区域均存在β条件收敛,但不存在显著的σ收敛,除东北地区外,全国及其他区域均存在β绝对收敛。结论 中国农业环境TFP仍存在较大的改善空间;应加强各地之间的农业经济联动,充分发挥农业技术的空间溢出效应,促进各地农业环境TFP逐步收敛;特别对于东北部,技术效率衰退较为严重且内部出现明显的两级分化现象,不利于粮食生产安全。     

黄河流域粮食主产区耕地利用生态效率时空差异与空间收敛——来自60个地级市的经验证据

目的 黄河流域粮食主产区承担着粮食和生态双重安全任务,探究其耕地利用生态效率时空演变特征和空间收敛规律,对于推进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展具有现实意义。方法 文章采用气候生产潜力、EBM-GML模型、非参数估计和空间收敛模型等方法,构建耕地利用生态效率测度指标体系,测度分析其时空演变、区域差异及空间收敛规律。结果 研究期黄河流域粮食主产区耕地利用生态效率呈现如下特征。（1）从整体上看,在时间上呈现下降趋势,在空间上呈现低水平集聚态势;（2）从区域差异看,各区域基尼系数变化呈现不同特征。四川、内蒙古、河南、山东分别呈现“波浪”、倒“V”“折线”、字母“M”型;（3）从空间收敛规律看,整体和分区域都表现出显著的σ收敛和绝对β收敛特征,区域内的σ收敛趋势表现出明显正向空间依赖性,而绝对β收敛趋势则表现出明显负向空间依赖性。结论 黄河流域粮食主产区可通过推进农用资源的高效利用、缩小区域发展的效率差异以及把握空间分布的收敛趋势,实现粮食生产和生态保护协调发展。     

中国省域农产品出口贸易的时空演变及区域差异研究

目的 农产品出口贸易是农业强国的重要组成部分,深入分析我国农产品出口贸易的时空演化规律及区域差异,有助于把握我国农产品出口贸易的发展规律、优化农产品出口贸易布局,对提高我国农业国际竞争力、建设农业强国具有重大的意义。方法 文章以我国31个省（市、区,不含港澳台）为研究对象,利用空间自相关模型和泰尔指数探究2002－2022年我国省域农产品出口贸易在时间和空间上的变化以及区域的差异性。结果 （1）我国总体、省域及区域农产品出口贸易规模都呈波动增加趋势,其中,东北区域自2010年开始出口贸易规模整体增速明显低于中西部区域,位于中西部的大部分省域农产品出口贸易都存在较大的发展潜力;（2）我国各省域农产品出口贸易在空间上存在明显的“高－高”和“低－低”集聚的特征。相比于2002年,2022年个别省域存在跃迁,落入了“低－低、低－高”集聚区;（3）农产品出口贸易整体及四大区域内部差异均呈扩大趋势,四大区域中,西部区域内部差异最大,并呈“M”型波动趋势,区域间差异在总体差异中占据主导地位但呈缓慢收敛趋势。结论 据此,提出在全国层面上,持续推进全方位开放、加强针对性政策扶持力度;在区域层面上,根据各区域农产品出口贸易发展的现实状况、资源禀赋、因地制宜地制定发展政策等建议,以期更好地推动我国农产品出口贸易的均衡发展。     

陕西省农业农村现代化发展水平评价及空间分布差异研究

目的 定量评估陕西省农业农村现代化发展水平及其时空演变特征和区域差异,以期为该省推进农业农村现代化发展提供参考。方法 文章选择2010—2021年陕西省各区域相关指标数据作为研究样本,采取极差法、熵值法和综合评价指数法来测算不同年份下陕西省及各区域的农业农村现代化发展水平,同时结合ArcGIS软件和Dagum基尼系数法对其空间分布、区域差异以及差异来源进行深入探析。结果 （1） 2010—2021年陕西省农业农村现代化发展水平在波动中略呈上升态势,其中,农业现代化增长幅度和发展速度明显高于农村现代化的增幅和速度。（2）发展优势在于农业产业体系和农村居民思想观念和生活质量发展水平提升较快,而主要短板为农业生产体系、农村基础设施和服务体系、农村治理体系和治理能力、农业经营体系现代化4个维度。（3）陕西省农业农村现代化发展水平空间分布存在较大区域差异,并表现为一定的固化态势。关中地区发展水平最高,陕北地区最低;地级市中以西安市、咸阳市最高,宝鸡市、渭南市次之,渭南市、宝鸡市和榆林市3市水平提升较快。（4）陕西省的农业农村现代化发展水平区域内和区域间差异均更加趋于平衡,其中关中区域内差异以最大,陕南发展最为均衡;从演变趋势来看,关中区域内差异变化不大,陕北逐年缩小,而陕南有增大趋势;关中—陕南、关中—陕北区域间差异大大缩小,而陕南—陕北略有增大。结论 陕西省农业农村现代化发展仍处于初级阶段,提升空间较大。未来应加强合理布局和区域间合作交流,强化高水平区域的示范作用,打破地理和资源限制,加强多维度共同发展,因地制宜实施推动区域农业农村现代化发展。     

长江流域农业生态经济系统耦合协调关系评价及其差异化分析

目的 考察长江流域农业生态经济系统耦合协调发展水平及其差异化特征,对实现长江流域乃至全国农业农村现代化都具有重要的意义。方法 文章基于2004—2018年长江流域省级面板数据,分别构建了农业生态经济系统综合评价指标体系,采用CRITIC—熵权组合权重法测算两者的综合发展水平,结合耦合协调度模型和Dagum基尼系数法,对两者耦合协调发展水平及其差异特征进行系统性分析。结果 （1）2004—2018年长江流域农业生态经济系统综合发展水平均呈上升态势,但农业经济系统发展较为滞后,且两者在总体上、区域间、省份间各有差异。（2）长江流域农业生态经济系统具有高度耦合特征,且耦合度呈现波动上升趋势,但不同区域表现有所差别。（3）长江流域农业生态经济系统的协调发展水平整体上呈阶梯式上升,协调等级常年稳定在初级协调状态,且中游相较于上、下游协调发展水平更好,区域内差异更小。（4）长江流域农业生态经济系统耦合协调发展水平总体差异呈现出波动走势,且基尼系数有扩大趋势,超变密度贡献率均值最大,但在考察期内,区域间差异与超变密度轮换构成影响长江流域农业生态经济系统协调发展水平差异的主要因素。结论 应加快现代农业发展步伐,提高农业经济效益,突破区域发展壁垒,推动农业资源要素在自由流动,激发区域农业生态经济协同发展新动能,进一步缩小农业生态经济协调发展水平的区域间差异。     

乡村振兴视域下京津冀农业绿色发展水平综合评价分析

目的 京津冀农业绿色发展水平综合评价,以期为该区域农业绿色高质量发展提供借鉴。方法 文章基于乡村振兴战略背景构建京津冀农业绿色发展水平评价指标体系,选择熵权法确定权重,并运用综合评价法对2010—2020年京津冀及其各区域的农业绿色发展水平和发展趋势进行评价。结果 （1）2010—2020年京津冀农业绿色发展水平不断得到提升,其中贡献率最大的是环境友好,其次是农村发展和生态保护,资源利用贡献率最小。（2）区域发展相同点：2020年京津冀3地农业绿色发展水平差异不大,表现为协同发展趋势,并且3地区均表现为环境友好贡献率最大,资源利用变化趋势均呈现先降低后增加的趋势;区域发展不同点：3地农业绿色发展变化趋势、变化幅度和变化的时间点不同,河北表现为更大的变化幅度,尤其是生态保护表现为先降低后增高的趋势。结论 京津冀农业绿色发展总体呈现良好的发展趋势,尤其表现在化肥、农药减施和地膜回收等方面,京津冀农业绿色发展取得了阶段性的提升。但是也存在明显的短板,如农业水资源和节水灌溉面积不足,水土流失治理水平、能源利用效率等方面仍需进一步加强。从区域差异看,北京资源利用水平较低,天津和河北生态保护水平较低。京津冀协同发展中资源利用仍然是主要短板,其次是生态保护和农村发展,创新农业科技,提高土地生产率,提高资源能源利用率仍然任重道远。     

合肥都市圈设施农用地时空演变特征识别及分区管控研究——基于35个评价单元面板数据的实证分析

目的 设施农用地是实现农业现代化及乡村振兴战略的重要载体。探究典型区域设施农用地时空演变特征及其类型划分,能够有效落实差异化管控策略。方法 文章以合肥市都市圈为例,综合运用区位指数、核密度、ESDA及SOFM等模型算法,精准揭示设施农用地时空演化特征,进一步划分空间区域类型及提出差异管控引导。结果 （1）设施农用地区位指数存在显著区域差异并有缩小趋势,总体呈现中北部高、西南部低的空间布局形态;（2）设施农用地空间分布呈现更加均匀化、扁平化趋势,特别是西北部设施农用地得到较快增长,仍呈现相对集中分布且以中部、北部居多;（3）核密度曲线的峰值呈现向右移动趋势,由多峰向单峰演变态势且集中于区位指数1.0附近,Moran''s I指数介于0.167 4与0.259 0,并以热点区、冷点区、冷冷点区为代表类型区域分布更为集中;（4）将合肥都市圈划分为西南丘陵适度发展区域、北部平原重点发展区域、城市圈层优化发展区域3个利用分区类型,并针对每类区域时空演变趋势特征及设施农业发展要求,提出分区差别化管控引导。结论 合肥都市圈设施农用地空间差异呈现减弱趋势,但仍具有较强空间集聚特征,将区域划分不同开发利用类型并提出差别化管控策略,可为设施农业转型发展及其用地布局优化提供理论支撑及实践参考。     

乡村旅游高质量发展赋能乡村振兴潜力评价及障碍因素诊断

目的 乡村旅游高质量发展的经济、社会、环境、文化、民生维度目标与乡村振兴的“产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕”总要求是相呼应的,乡村旅游高质量发展是赋能乡村振兴的重要引擎,文章构建乡村旅游高质量发展赋能乡村振兴潜力的测度体系。方法 运用熵权法、TOPSIS、障碍度模型分析我国乡村旅游高质量发展赋能乡村振兴潜力水平的时空特征及障碍因素。结果 我国乡村旅游高质量发展赋能乡村振兴的潜力水平总体不高,且区域差异较大,东部地区发展水平普遍高于中西部地区;与省域相比,上海、北京和天津等大都市的潜力水平处于较高等级,高水平地区从点状分散向集聚分布格局转变,部分省域的等级呈现动态变化。结论 经济、文化、社会维度是准则层的主要障碍因素,其中文化维度的障碍度呈降低趋势,环境、社会维度的障碍度呈增大趋势;环境治理、绿化覆盖、客源市场消费能力、产业规模、居民消费水平是指标层的主要障碍因素。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.