黄河流域农业灰水足迹与经济增长的关系研究——基于脱钩及回弹效应

目的 科学评价水资源环境及其与经济增长之间的矛盾，直接关系到黄河流域水资源可持续利用与农业经济高质量发展。方法 文章以灰水足迹为视角，纳入种植业和畜牧业，全面测算2000－2019年黄河流域农业水资源环境状况；基于“脱钩”的内涵，运用GIS空间分析技术探索黄河流域农业灰水足迹与经济增长关系的时空演变规律；引入无残差完全分解模型对黄河流域经济增长过程中农业灰水足迹的变化进行分解。结果 （1）总体而言，黄河流域农业灰水足迹随经济增长而增加，2013年达到极大值后缓慢下降。（2）黄河流域农业灰水足迹与经济增长的脱钩关系由无序到有序，2019年大多数地区呈强脱钩态势且存在显著的空间集聚特征。（3）2000－2019年约63%的地区在人口效应、经济效应的拉动作用下，农业灰水足迹产生增量效应；约37%的地区在城乡结构效应、技术效应和产业结构效应的抑制作用下，农业灰水足迹产生减量效应。结论 适度提高沿黄地区人口质量、控制经济发展规模以及推动绿色生产方式。     

西北地区城乡收入差距的时空分异及影响因素

目的 为准确把握市域尺度下西北地区城乡收入差距的时空演变特征，促进该区域城乡融合发展。方法 文章基于2010—2018年51个市域单元城乡居民收入比数据，综合运用核密度估计、探索性空间数据分析和空间回归模型等方法研究了西北地区城乡收入差距的时空分异及影响因素。结果 （1）西北地区城乡居民收入比由3.189下降至2.736，下降幅度为14.21%；（2）空间分布格局上形成了东西方向的“U型”特征和南北方向由北及南平滑上升的特征；（3）全局莫兰指数在波动中由0.322上升至0.358，上升幅度为11.18%；（4）空间滞后模型表明城镇化对城乡收入差距有正向影响，产业结构高级化、农业现代化和金融效率对城乡收入差距有负向影响，而经济发展虽然能够缩小城乡收入差距，但两者在计量结果上显示“U型”关系。结论 西北地区城乡收入差距在小幅波动中表现出缩小的趋势，且市域之间的差异呈现出收敛的态势；西北地区城乡收入差距在空间分布上表现出较为显著的正自相关性，且在局部地区有板块集聚特征；空间因素是西北地区缩小城乡收入差距不可忽视的重要因素。     

中国各省市区种养业灰水足迹分析与评价

目的 深入挖掘第二次全国污染源普查成果，科学评价与分析各地区农业源水污染排放现状与环境压力，将有助于区域污染物减排与政策制定。方法 文章拟核算2017年中国31个省（市、区，不含港澳台）种养业的灰水足迹，构建评价指标体系，选取熵值法和理想点法作为综合评价方法，系统性评价与分析种养业水污染物排放量与产量、产值的协同关系，表征水污染物排放对区域地表水的环境压力。结果 （1）2017年全国种植业和畜禽养殖业灰水足迹分别为4 898亿m³和6 841亿m³，分别呈现“南高北低”和“东高西低”的地理分布特征。（2）畜禽养殖业水污染物排放带来的水环境压力大于种植业，尤其是黄淮海地区。（3）在种植业中，江苏和海南的灰水足迹综合评价结果相对较低；在畜禽养殖业中，河北、西藏、天津和宁夏相对较低。结论 建议种养业未来以减排增效为核心发展目标，海南优化肥料施用结构与方式、黄淮海地区调控种养业生产规模与方式、长江中下游地区拦截稻田退水污染。该文从水环境保护角度为中国种养业绿色发展提供政策建议。     

中国木薯生产水足迹时空特征及水影响研究——以两广地区为例

目的 木薯是我国重要的生物燃料原料作物,研究我国木薯主产区的生产耗水特征对木薯产业发展、水资源管理和政策制定具有重要意义。方法 文章基于水足迹理论及应用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）方法,选取2004—2020年广东和广西（简称“两广地区”）木薯主产区 45个气象站点气象数据和相关农业数据,对两广地区木薯水足迹时空演变规律及其对当地水资源的影响进行研究。结果 （1）研究期间,两广地区木薯生产水足迹总体呈现下降趋势。其中,广西木薯水足迹高于广东,绿水足迹占比大于蓝水足迹。（2） 两广地区木薯水足迹在平水年2004年、枯水年2011年和丰水年2019年空间分布略有差异,整体有从广东东南方向至广西西北方向递增的趋势。（3）两广地区木薯水足迹具有很高的空间相关性和强空间聚集性。水足迹高高聚集区（H—H）主要分布在广西北部和中部,低低聚集区（L—L）主要分布在广东经济发达地区。（4）枯水年2011年有着相对较高的水压力程度。广西木薯生产对当地水资源产生对影响更大。结论 两广地区木薯生产及其需水量随年份发生了明显的变化,用水效率及水消耗量空间差异较大,具有明显的空间聚集特征。因此,应调整两广地区木薯种植结构,制定区域内合理灌溉制度,提升水资源和种植结构的匹配度,从而达到促进木薯产业可持续发展和缓解当地水资源压力的目的。     

基于三阶段SBM-Malmquist指数的粮食生产用水绿色效率研究——以宁夏为例

目的 农业可持续发展离不开粮食生产用水效率,探明宁夏区域内粮食生产用水特征有助于提高该地区农水利用效率,实现农业绿色发展。方法 文章以粮食水足迹作为投入指标,粮食灰水足迹作为非期望产出指标,采用三阶段超效率SBM-Malmquist模型,对2006—2020年宁夏18个县区粮食生产用水绿色效率进行了测算。结果 （1）受粮食产量、播种面积以及种植结构的影响,宁夏粮食生产水足迹、灰水足迹地域分异明显,由北向南依次减少;（2）不同粮食品种灰水足迹不同,玉米的灰水足迹最多,造成的污染最严重,主要原因在于玉米播种面积较广,单位面积施氮量大于小麦和水稻;（3）剔除环境因素后发现,环境变量会夸大综合技术效率,导致不同地区粮食生产用水绿色效率不同。结论 研究发现：宁夏粮食生产用水绿色效率高于平均值的地区,如银川、永宁县、贺兰县等,主要受技术效率的影响;而低于平均值的地区,如平罗县、同心县、泾源县,受技术效率影响的同时也受到技术进步的影响。为此,宁夏农业生产用水管理要因地制宜,分区施策,在加大技术创新投入的同时,重点关注单位面积氮肥施用量;继续推进节水型农业,实现粮食生产用水绿色效率的稳步提升。     

中国生猪生产水足迹空间变异与评价

目的 为了剖析2008年和2017年中国大陆31个省（市、自治区）生猪水足迹组成及时空演变规律,评价生猪生产蓝水足迹的可持续性,厘清饲料作物及其贸易对生猪养殖耗水的作用,以明确我国畜产品生产对区域用水的效率和影响。方法 文章采用“自下而上法”量化与解析2008年和2017年我国各地生猪生产水足迹的空间变异性,厘清猪生产中主要耗水者—饲料虚拟水的空间流动过程,基于“可持续利用”概念,定量评价生猪水足迹及饲料虚拟水流动的可持续性。结果 （1）生猪单头水足迹呈下降趋势,且散养生猪单头水足迹最大;但生产规模扩大使2017年我国生猪生产总水足迹增至2 194亿m³/年。（2）不可持续蓝水足迹占生猪生产蓝水足迹的86%,其中饲料消费不可持续蓝水足迹贡献了91%。（3）生猪生产水足迹高值区集中在南方地区,但生猪生产不可持续蓝水足迹高值区集中在水资源短缺的北方地区。2017年由缺水地区输出的不可持续虚拟蓝水已达省际间饲料作物虚拟蓝水流动量的91%。结论 我国生猪饲养应亟需优化饲料供应结构,协调畜牧产业和种植业布局,并加大农业节水技术推广,以期在水资源刚性约束下,实现畜产品供需安全和粮食安全保障。     

农业高质量发展：水平测算、时空分异与收敛特征

目的 以新发展理念为引领，探究区域层面农业高质量发展水平、时空分异与收敛特征，试图清晰展现我国农业高质量发展的“非均衡”全况。方法 文章利用2011—2020年省域面板数据，通过构建农业高质量发展综合评价指标体系，并运用熵值法、Dagum基尼系数法、变异系数法与空间收敛模型等方法，验证了我国农业高质量发展的时空差异。结果 我国农业高质量发展水平呈现不断上升的趋势，总体差异呈波动下降趋势，但区域差异较明显，地区间差异是总体差异的主要来源；除东北地区外，我国农业高质量发展均存在σ收敛、空间绝对β收敛、空间条件β收敛，分区域与分时期的收敛性具有明显的时空差异特征。结论 进一步提高农业高质量发展水平、缩小区域差异，要提高农业科技创新能力，加强农业基础设施建设，深入贯彻新发展理念，转变农业发展方式。遵循比较优势发展原则，建立跨区域的农业协同创新平台，加强区域农业高质量融合协同发展。     

四川省农业经济发展水平时空格局演变特征分析——基于2006—2019年面板数据

目的 分析四川省农业经济发展水平时空格局演变特征，对促进四川省农业经济健康发展具有重要意义。方法 文章以四川省五大经济区为主要研究单元，通过构建评价指标体系，采用组合赋权法确定指标权重，对2006—2019年四川省农业经济发展水平进行测度，运用泰尔指数、自然断点分级法和重心分析模型等方法，对四川省农业经济发展水平时空格局演化特征进行分析。结果 （1）2006—2019年四川省农业经济发展水平有所提高，五大经济区中除成都平原经济区农业经济发展水平有所降低外，其余经济区农业经济发展水平均有提高；（2）四川省农业经济发展水平总差异表现为“先升后降”的变化趋势，引导形成全省总差异的是区域内差异。（3）五大经济区间农业经济发展水平差异较大，成都平原经济区远大于川西北生态经济区的农业经济发展水平；五大经济区内部发展也不均衡，内部差异最大的是攀西经济区。各市（州）空间演化特征不明显，存在“阶层固化”现象。（4）四川省东部偏南方向是农业经济发展的高密度地带，2006—2019年经济重心整体逐渐向南偏移，东西方向上形成“拉锯战”模式，2019年呈现向西南转移态势。结论 为促进四川省农业经济协调发展，一方面要发挥成都平原经济区及成都市的辐射带动作用，加快形成“一强多极，区域协同”的发展格局；另一方面应重视供给侧结构性改革，合理调整和优化产业结构；最后建议加大“人、财、物”的投入力度，为确保四川省农业经济稳定、可持续发展提供基础保障。     

兼顾水质与水量的长江经济带农业水土资源匹配时空格局

目的 农业水土资源匹配是农业可持续发展的重要基础，但是当前农业水土资源匹配方面的相关研究主要侧重水量，往往忽视了农业污染问题，因此文章研究兼顾水质和水量，以长江经济带为研究区，揭示农业水土资源匹配的时空演变特征，为缓解农业水资源的供需矛盾、优化水土资源配置等提供科学依据。方法 综合考虑灰水足迹与农业用水，构建水土资源匹配系数，并采用局部空间自相关法揭示水土资源匹配的时空变化格局。结果 将农业污染纳入水土匹配测度不仅对整体水土资源匹配类型影响较大，对水土资源匹配类型的数量和空间分布影响也较大：（1）在时序上，2000—2019年长江经济带水土资源匹配系数在小幅下降后处于稳定状态；匹配系数平均值为1.04，保持相对均衡的状态。（2）在空间上，四川、重庆、湖南等地水土资源匹配较好，并且四川等地呈持续向好的趋势，然而湖北、安徽、江苏等地却恰恰相反。（3）水土资源匹配较差的地区多表现为双重型缺水，主要分布于云南、湖南等地，并且该类型在下游减少、上游增多；水量主导型缺水区主要分布于贵州、江苏等地，而水质主导型缺水区主要分布于湖北、安徽等地。结论 有必要将水质与水量同时纳入水土资源匹配评估体系中，研究表明长江经济带水土资源匹配程度提高，总体上空间格局较稳定，但是区域差异明显；当前存在的主要问题是“双重型缺水”；明确各地区的缺水类型为提出针对性的调控策略提供了依据，例如可以通过合理调控生产要素投入、调整作物种植结构等措施，降低农业水土资源不匹配的风险。     

山东农业绿色发展水平时空差异与障碍因素分析

目的 山东作为农业大省，分析该地区农业绿色发展水平及空间差异，识别各地市农业绿色发展障碍因素，对于实现农业减排固氮具有现实意义。方法 文章选取山东五大区域16地市，运用熵权法和障碍度模型分析农业绿色发展水平及其障碍因素，利用Dagum基尼系数解析其区域异质性。结果 （1）2012—2020年山东农业绿色发展水平呈现上升态势，自2015年提升速度显著加快。研究时期内资源节约最为稳定，环境友好先稳定后增长，产出高效显著增长。（2）从区域特征分析，山东绿色发展水平具有区域差异性，呈现“西高东低”分布格局，总体基尼系数处于略微下降趋势，空间差异主要来源于区域间差异。（3）分区域看，鲁中和鲁东属于资源高耗型，鲁中南和鲁西北属于产出低效型，鲁西南属于投入产出双制约型，障碍因素集中在耕地复种指数、有效灌溉面积占比、农民可支配收入、土地生产率、农业产值占比。结论 新发展阶段下，山东需警惕环境友好障碍度增长态势，加大农业农村污染治理力度，聚焦于精准方向与科学治理。基于障碍因素分析，针对地市面临不同短板提出拓宽农业电商、释放农村生产要素活力、发挥“潍坊模式”示范作用、制定最低流转年限等措施。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.