Does Bank Diversification Improve Output Growth? Evidence from the Recent Global Crisis

This study examines whether the diversity of activities conducted by the banking sector in the years approaching the recent global financial crisis alleviated the adverse impact of the crisis. Using data for 28 industries in 66 countries, we find that bank diversification has strengthened country resilience to the crisis, as measured by industry growth over the period 2008–2009. However, we find that while both bank‐based and market‐based economies have been affected negatively by the crisis, the contribution of bank diversification in mitigating the real impact of the crisis is pronounced only in bank‐based economies. Overall, our findings suggest that countries with significant bank diversification have also been the most resilient to the recent global crisis.     

Irrungen und Wirrungen mit der Leistungsbilanzstatistik

In the current crisis the current account surplus and deficit position of single member countries has been considered to be a key indicator of the internal imbalances of the eurozone. German current account surplusses are confronted with current account deficits in the GIIPS countries. But Germany’s current account surplus vis-à-vis these countries has rapidly declined since the outbreak of the global economic and financial crisis mostly caused by the drastic recession in these countries. Furthermore, the near-zero interest rate policy of the ECB has drastically reduced the interest payments from these countries to Germany.     

Trade Policies in Southeast Asia in the Wider Asian Perspective

This paper takes stock of trade policies in Southeast Asia after the Asian crisis and in the wake of the current global economic crisis. It compares trade policies in individual Southeast Asian countries; places them in the context of regional and global economic integration; and particularly draws implications for the region from the rise of China and India. The first section looks at recent trade and FDI patterns in Southeast Asia. Then follows an overview of key trade‐policy trends, in the region overall and in individual countries. The next sections examine ASEAN countries in international trade negotiations and agreements: first in the WTO, especially in the Doha Round; then within ASEAN; and finally on cross‐regional FTAs. The paper concludes that ASEAN countries cannot rely on external tracks ‘from above’ for meaningful trade policy reform. Since the Asian crisis there has been a slowdown of reform momentum, and too much reliance on trade negotiations – especially FTAs. Rather, countries in the region have to rely on themselves –‘from below’ as it were. The engine of liberalisation and regulatory reform has to be home‐driven – as it was before the Asian crisis – with governments taking unilateral measures in response to internal and external conditions.     

Loan loss provisioning

Before the background of the debt crisis loan loss provisioning has been gaining in importance, as one of the measures adopted by banks to reduce their exposure in highly indebted countries and to strengthen their balance sheets. Prof. Abbott examines the concept and forms of provisioning, and discusses the recent establishment of international guidelines and their likely effects on the debt crisis.     

Can the international debt strategy use the concept of corporate compositions?

So far, it has been possible to stave off really serious consequences for the world economy and the international financial system since the developing-country debt crisis started in 1982. Yet for many developing countries, external debt problems and the underlying economic crisis are as pressing as ever. The following article identifies five central elements of a general orientation framework for dealing with the debt crisis which has been inspired by the basic idea of the concept of corporate compositions found in commercial law.     

国际金融危机与“购买美国货”条款

美国爆发的金融危机给全球金融和经济贸易带来极大的影响,为此,各国纷纷出台应对当前金融危机、刺激经济复苏的政策和措施,美国更是如此。2009年2月17日,美国总统奥巴马签署了《2009年美国复兴与再投资法》,①使之正式成为法律生效,奥巴马"新政"由此也正式启航。然而,美国应对金融危机、刺激经济复苏方案出台前后,不仅在美国国内引起激烈争论,而且在全球范围内也引起轩然大波,矛盾的焦点主要集中在该法的"购买美国货"条款上。带有明显贸易保护主义的"购买美国货"条款出台,使世界上贸易保护主义进一步抬头和泛滥,各国在应对金融和经济危机的同时,不得不与贸易保护主义作斗争。     

欧债危机对我国对欧出口贸易的影响与因应措施

欧盟是中国最大的贸易伙伴。随着欧债危机逐渐从欧元区外围国家向核心国家蔓延,欧债危机引起的整个欧洲经济增长乏力、欧元贬值等问题势必会使中国对欧出口贸易受到影响。随着欧债危机的深化,相关成员国势必实施严格的紧缩政策,从而将使中国对欧出口遭遇更严峻的形势。鉴于欧元区在中国外贸出口中的重要地位,我们必须尽早设定应对措施,以期减缓欧债危机可能对我国经济造成的冲击。     

Distributional issues in the context of the economic crisis in Europe

This article takes a step back from the debate on the precise causes of the crisis and the detailed steps needed to resolve it. It focuses on distributional issues and discusses the ways in which widening income inequality in most European countries has been linked to factors that lie behind the crisis. It then considers distributional effects of current efforts to resolve the crisis and explains why crisis-resolution policies need to address distributional concerns. Finally it proposes measures, many of which require coordination at least at the European level, to address the distributional crisis that otherwise awaits us in coming years and that will ultimately help to establish a new, more economically and socially balanced growth model.     

Currency board,dollarisation or flexible exchange rates for emerging economies? Reflections on Argentina

Since the 1990s many emerging countries have adopted a fixed exchange-rate peg vis-à-vis a reserve currency in order to cope with economic imbalances such as buoyant inflation, high unemployment or staggering economic growth. However, after a period of economic stabilisation and prosperity, overheating effects showed up in several countries that were often coupled with difficulties in the banking and/or the real estate sector. Sticking with a fixed peg, the likelihood of a currency crisis increased. The case of Argentina shows that even with a currency board it is difficult to restore confidence if a crisis has already been developing for several years. This article presents an economic analysis of the Argentina crisis.     

论发展中国家金融危机与美元汇率波动

自布雷顿森林体系解体后至今的几十年中,以发展中国家爆发金融危机为主要形式的世界经济波动在频率和规模上都有不断扩大的趋势。近几十年发展中国家金融危机与美元币值的波动有一定的联系,即当美元贬值时世界上某些国家将进入经济繁荣时期,当美元升值时某些国家将出现经济衰退甚至爆发金融危机。     

全球金融危机下的中韩经贸关系调整及对策

中韩建交16年来,两国互为重要的贸易伙伴。"次贷危机"的爆发对中韩两国经济与贸易形成重大冲击。包括贸易逆差在内的中韩双边经贸关系中的固有问题发生了一定变化。面对全球金融风暴,中韩两国应该加强金融合作、改善贸易环境,同舟共济、勇闯难关。     

Is a second debt crisis looming?

The debt crisis of the developing countries, which loomed so large at the beginning of the eighties, appears for the time being to have been overcome. However, under the surface problems are growing that could give a debt crisis among the developing countries an entirely new dimension. Under what conditions can a second debt crisis be prevented?     

Finance,growth and crisis — A European perspective

The long-held truism that finance is always good for growth has been called into question by the global financial crisis. This article examines new evidence on the finance-growth nexus from a European perspective. More specifically, it compares the approach of many CESEE countries — i.e. financial deepening and integration via foreign banks — with that of the euro area, namely wholesale financial integration but without any instruments for crisis management.     

The financial crisis and trade—key impacts,interactions, and outcomes

The international financial crisis has been felt acutely in international trade. This article looks at the extent of the fall in trade and its impacts in major world exporters and sectors of industry. The article finds that the effects of the crisis have been far from homogeneous, with certain sectors more heavily impacted than others. In particular, electronics and transport equipment have seen large falls in trade, with base metals and machinery also strongly affected. Furthermore, certain countries have seen greater impacts than others. In particular, China saw relatively lower falls in trade than the other countries covered, contributing to an increase in the emerging world's share of global trade. Finally, the article looks at two key elements hypothesized as motors of the extensive trade fall—the fragmentation of production and the contraction in trade finance. It finds evidence that both were important to the impacts of the crisis on trade, although falls in GDP were the main driver. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Dependence between the global gold market and emerging stock markets (E7+1): Evidence from Granger causality using quantile and quantile‐on‐quantile regression methods

This study examined the dependence between gold and stocks during 2002–18 in seven emerging countries. The study combined the bivariate cross‐quantilogram introduced recently with quantile‐on‐quantile regression (QQR) approaches to conduct comprehensive and complementary analyses. The QQR results for the full sample revealed a weak positive dependence in all the quantiles of gold and stock returns across all the countries selected during mild market conditions. The results for pre and post‐crisis periods largely were consistent with those obtained for the full sample, except for Turkey (pre‐crisis), and China and Indonesia (post‐crisis). The results of the causality test‐in‐mean (return) and that of the causality test‐in‐variance revealed no causal relation between stock and gold in the pre‐crisis period, while causality ran only from gold to some stocks in the post‐crisis period. Further, while there was volatility causality running only from gold to stocks during the pre‐crisis period, the volatility causality between the two markets was very high during the post‐crisis period. Therefore, we suggest that gold may have been a hedge for stocks during the pre‐crisis compared to the post‐crisis period. Further, international risk factors should be considered in optimal investment decisions between domestic and global markets' assets (stocks and gold).     

The Global Economic Crisis and The Effect of Immigrant Workers on Native‐born Employment in Europe

The debate regarding the economic effects of employing immigrants has attracted renewed interest in European countries since the economic crisis. We provide an approximation of the labour market effects of immigrant workers in four European countries during the global economic crisis after briefly analysing native and foreign‐born worker conditions for the most recent period. Our analysis focuses on the correlation between the stock of immigrant workers and the number of native labour market workers across several segments of the labour market using a simple model approach. Using Eurostat and LFS (Labour Force Survey) data, we estimate a structural dynamic model using the generalised method of moments (GMM) to examine adjustment dynamics in the labour market and labour market segment and worker educational levels, countries of origin and genders. Overall, the empirical results suggest that immigrant labour force effects on native‐born worker employment rates have been persistent and but weak throughout the business cycle. These effects are globally positive, and immigrant origins do not appear to change the nature of their impact. We offer some explanations for these findings related to dual labour markets and to differences in levels of substitution among native and immigrant workers.     

凯恩斯主义与新自由主义的“争”与“合”

20世纪30年代至今,凯恩斯主义与新自由主义一直处于针锋相对的状态。尽管两者的理论主张背道而驰,但都曾陷入无法挽救经济危机的窘境。在欧洲主权债务危机和国际金融危机爆发后的后危机时代,世界亟待构建新的理论框架,各国亟需择取有效的宏观经济政策,由此才能促进国家经济增长。将这两者有效结合将不失为一个明智之举。     

German trade performance in times of slumping euro area markets

While the global financial crisis had a strong impact on economic activity in Germany, the impact of the euro area crisis on economic activity in Germany has so far been relatively mild. Trade flows by region reveal that German firms have recently redirected their exports towards the remaining growth spots of the world economy, in particular to Asia??s emerging economies. However, a continued crisis in the euro area is likely to put a considerable dent in German exports. While market forces have already triggered the rebalancing of intra-European trade flows, German exporters may play a helpful role in this process if firms in distressed countries circumvent high entry costs by integrating themselves into the global value chains of German exporters.     

Austerity measures in crisis countries — results and impact on mid-term development

Since the onset of the sovereign debt crisis, the crisis-stricken countries in Europe have been pushed to take drastic steps to consolidate their finances and reduce their budget deficits. Despite strong public opposition and largely damaging short-run effects, the countries have undertaken many of the internationally recommended/mandated reforms and spending cuts. In this Forum, authors from Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal report on the fiscal consolidation achieved in their respective countries — and the sacrifices that have made it possible. Furthermore, the authors detail what remains to be done to resolve the crisis.     

主权债务危机早期预警系统研究——基于BP神经网络方法

文章运用BP神经网络方法,构建了主权债务危机早期预警系统。通过对1991-2006年54个发展中国家宏观经济及债务状况数据的实证研究发现,该系统能对未来三年内出现的主权债务危机事件起到较好的预警作用,预警总体效果达86.7%。同时,与二元Logistic模型进行预测对比,发现运用人工神经网络方法对主权债务危机进行预警比二元Logistic方法具有相对优势。